The exchange rate exposure of UK non-financial companies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK nonfinancial companies from January 1981 to December 2001. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs different exchange rate measures and adopts an equally weighted exchange rate. The analyses are conducted at the firm level. All analyses are conducted by regressing the firm’s exchange rate exposure coefficients on its size, foreign activity variables and financial hedging proxies over the whole sample period. Findings – The findings show that a higher percentage of UK non-financial companies are exposed to exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. Generally, the results provide a stronger support for the suggested equally weighted rate as an economic variable, which affects firms’ stock returns. The results also show a high proportion of positive exposure coefficients among firms with significant exchange rate exposure, indicating a higher proportion of firms benefiting from an appreciation of the pound. Finally, the results also indicate evidence that firms’ foreign operations and hedging variables affect their sensitivity to exchange rate exposure. Practical implications – This study provides important implications for public policymakers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth effects. Originality/value – The empirical results of this study should help investors to examine how common stock returns react to exchange rate fluctuations when making financial decisions, and prove useful for financial managers when measuring exposure to foreign exchange rate changes.

International stock portfolio selection and performance measures recognizing higher moments of return distributions

Since the seminal works of Markowitz (1952), Sharpe (1964), and Lintner (1965), numerous studies on portfolio selection and performance measure have been based upon the mean-variance framework. However, several researchers (e.g., Arditti (1967, and 1971), Samuelson (1970), and Rubinstein (1973)) argue that the higher moments cannot be neglected unless there is reason to believe that: (i) the asset returns are normally distributed and the investor's utility function is quadratic, or (ii) the empirical evidence demonstrates that higher moments are irrelevant to the investor's decision. Based on the same argument, this dissertation investigates the impact of higher moments of return distributions on three issues concerning the 14 international stock markets.^ First, the portfolio selection with skewness is determined using: the Polynomial Goal Programming in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated. The empirical findings suggest that the return distributions of international stock markets are not normally distributed, and that the incorporation of skewness into an investor's portfolio decision causes a major change in the construction of his optimal portfolio. The evidence also indicates that an investor will trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness. Moreover, when short sales are allowed, investors are better off as they attain higher expected return and skewness simultaneously.^ Second, the performance of international stock markets are evaluated using two types of performance measures: (i) the two-moment performance measures of Sharpe (1966), and Treynor (1965), and (ii) the higher-moment performance measures of Prakash and Bear (1986), and Stephens and Proffitt (1991). The empirical evidence indicates that higher moments of return distributions are significant and relevant to the investor's decision. Thus, the higher moment performance measures should be more appropriate to evaluate the performances of international stock markets. The evidence also indicates that various measures provide a vastly different performance ranking of the markets, albeit in the same direction.^ Finally, the inter-temporal stability of the international stock markets is investigated using the Parhizgari and Prakash (1989) algorithm for the Sen and Puri (1968) test which accounts for non-normality of return distributions. The empirical finding indicates that there is strong evidence to support the stability in international stock market movements. However, when the Anderson test which assumes normality of return distributions is employed, the stability in the correlation structure is rejected. This suggests that the non-normality of the return distribution is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the investigation of inter-temporal stability of international stock markets. ^

Liquidity and asset pricing: A comparison between three-factor and three-moment capital asset pricing models

Liquidity is an important attribute of an asset that investors would like to take into consideration when making investment decisions. However, the previous empirical evidence whether liquidity is a determinant of stock return is not unanimous. This dissertation provides a very comprehensive study about the role of liquidity in asset pricing using the Fama-French (1993) three-factor and Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) three-moment CAPM as models for risk adjustment. The relationship between liquidity and well-known determinants of stock returns such as size and book-to-market are also investigated. This study examines the liquidity and asset pricing issues for both intertemporal as well as cross-sectional data. ^ The results indicate an existence of a liquidity premium, i.e., less liquid stocks would demand higher rate of return than more liquid stocks. More specifically, a drop of 1 percent in liquidity is associated with a higher rate of return of about 2 to 3 basis points per month. Further investigation reveals that neither the Fama-French three-factor model nor the three-moment CAPM captures the liquidity premium. Finally, the results show that well-known determinants of stock return such as size and book-to-market do not serve as proxy for liquidity. ^ Overall, this dissertation shows that a liquidity premium exists in the stock market and that liquidity is a distinct effect, and is not influenced by the presence of non-market factors, market factors and other stock characteristics.^

Carbonate preservation of sediment cores from the Great Bahama Bank

The oceanic carbon cycle mainly comprises the production and dissolution/ preservation of carbonate particles in the water column or within the sediment. Carbon dioxide is one of the major controlling factors for the production and dissolution of carbonate. There is a steady exchange between the ocean and atmosphere in order to achieve an equilibrium of CO2; an anthropogenic rise of CO2 in the atmosphere would therefore also increase the amount of CO2 in the ocean. The increased amount of CO2 in the ocean, due to increasing CO2-emissions into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution, has been interpreted as "ocean acidification" (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003). Its alarming effects, such as dissolution and reduced CaCO3 formation, on reefs and other carbonate shell producing organisms form the topic of current discussions (Kolbert, 2006). Decreasing temperatures and increasing pressure and CO2 enhance the dissolution of carbonate particles at the sediment-water interface in the deep sea. Moreover, dissolution processes are dependent of the saturation state of the surrounding water with respect to calcite or aragonite. Significantly increased dissolution has been observed below the aragonite or calcite chemical lysocline; below the aragonite compensation depth (ACD), or calcite compensation depth (CCD), all aragonite or calcite particles, respectively, are dissolved. Aragonite, which is more prone to dissolution than calcite, features a shallower lysocline and compensation depth than calcite. In the 1980's it was suggested that significant dissolution also occurs in the water column or at the sediment-water interface above the lysocline. Unknown quantities of carbonate produced at the sea surface, would be dissolved due to this process. This would affect the calculation of the carbonate production and the entire carbonate budget of the world's ocean. Following this assumption, a number of studies have been carried out to monitor supralysoclinal dissolution at various locations: at Ceara Rise in the western equatorial Atlantic (Martin and Sayles, 1996), in the Arabian Sea (Milliman et al., 1999), in the equatorial Indian Ocean (Peterson and Prell, 1985; Schulte and Bard, 2003), and in the equatorial Pacific (Kimoto et al., 2003). Despite the evidence for supralysoclinal dissolution in some areas of the world's ocean, the question still exists whether dissolution occurs above the lysocline in the entire ocean. The first part of this thesis seeks answers to this question, based on the global budget model of Milliman et al. (1999). As study area the Bahamas and Florida Straits are most suitable because of the high production of carbonate, and because there the depth of the lysocline is the deepest worldwide. To monitor the occurrence of supralysoclinal dissolution, the preservation of aragonitic pteropod shells was determined, using the Limacina inflata Dissolution Index (LDX; Gerhardt and Henrich, 2001). Analyses of the grain-size distribution, the mineralogy, and the foraminifera assemblage revealed further aspects concerning the preservation state of the sediment. All samples located at the Bahamian platform are well preserved. In contrast, the samples from the Florida Straits show dissolution in 800 to 1000 m and below 1500 m water depth. Degradation of organic material and the subsequent release of CO2 probably causes supralysoclinal dissolution. A northward extension of the corrosive Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flows through the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico and might enhance dissolution processes at around 1000 m water depth. The second part of this study deals with the preservation of Pliocene to Holocene carbonate sediments from both the windward and leeward basins adjacent to Great Bahama Bank (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 632, 633, and 1006). Detailed census counts of the sand fraction (250-500 µm) show the general composition of the coarse grained sediment. Further methods used to examine the preservation state of carbonates include the amount of organic carbon and various dissolution indices, such as the LDX and the Fragmentation Index. Carbonate concretions (nodules) have been observed in the sand fraction. They are similar to the concretions or aggregates previously mentioned by Mullins et al. (1980a) and Droxler et al. (1988a), respectively. Nonetheless, a detailed study of such grains has not been made to date, although they form an important part of periplatform sediments. Stable isotopemeasurements of the nodules' matrix confirm previous suggestions that the nodules have formed in situ as a result of early diagenetic processes (Mullins et al., 1980a). The two cores, which are located in Exuma Sound (Sites 632 and 633), at the eastern margin of Great Bahama Bank (GBB), show an increasing amount of nodules with increasing core depth. In Pliocene sediments, the amount of nodules might rise up to 100%. In contrast, nodules only occur within glacial stages in the deeper part of the studied core interval (between 30 and 70 mbsf) at Site 1006 on the western margin of GBB. Above this level the sediment is constantly being flushed by bottom water, that might also contain corrosive AAIW, which would hinder cementation. Fine carbonate particles (<63 µm) form the matrix of the nodules and do therefore not contribute to the fine fraction. At the same time, the amount of the coarse fraction (>63 µm) increases due to the nodule formation. The formation of nodules might therefore significantly alter the grain-size distribution of the sediment. A direct comparison of the amount of nodules with the grain-size distribution shows that core intervals with high amounts of nodules are indeed coarser than the intervals with low amounts of nodules. On the other hand, an initially coarser sediment might facilitate the formation of nodules, as a high porosity and permeability enhances early diagenetic processes (Westphal et al., 1999). This suggestion was also confirmed: the glacial intervals at Site 1006 are interpreted to have already been rather coarse prior to the formation of nodules. This assumption is based on the grain-size distribution in the upper part of the core, which is not yet affected by diagenesis, but also shows coarser sediment during the glacial stages. As expected, the coarser, glacial deposits in the lower part of the core show the highest amounts of nodules. The same effect was observed at Site 632, where turbidites cause distinct coarse layers and reveal higher amounts of nodules than non-turbiditic sequences. Site 633 shows a different pattern: both the amount of nodules and the coarseness of the sediment steadily increase with increasing core depth. Based on these sedimentological findings, the following model has been developed: a grain-size pattern characterised by prominent coarse peaks (as observed at Sites 632 and 1006) is barely altered. The greatest coarsening effect due to the nodule formation will occur in those layers, which have initially been coarser than the adjacent sediment intervals. In this case, the overall trend of the grain-size pattern before and after formation of the nodules is similar to each other. Although the sediment is altered due to diagenetic processes, grain size could be used as a proxy for e.g. changes in the bottom-water current. The other case described in the model is based on a consistent initial grain-size distribution, as observed at Site 633. In this case, the nodule reflects the increasing diagenetic alteration with increasing core depth rather than the initial grain-size pattern. In the latter scenario, the overall grain-size trend is significantly changed which makes grain size unreliable as a proxy for any palaeoenvironmental changes. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of general sedimentation processes in the periplatform realm: the preservation state of surface samples shows the influence of supralysoclinal dissolution due to the degradation of organic matter and due to the presence of corrosive water masses; the composition of the sand fraction shows the alteration of the carbonate sediment due to early diagenetic processes. However, open questions are how and when the alteration processes occur and how geochemical parameters, such as the rise in alkalinity or the amount of strontium, are linked to them. These geochemical parameters might reveal more information about the depth in the sediment column, where dissolution and cementation processes occur.

The existence and source of stock return predictability : Evidence from dividend, output and consumption ratios

Date of Acceptance: 13/03/2015

The existence and source of stock return predictability : Evidence from dividend, output and consumption ratios

Date of Acceptance: 13/03/2015

Essays in Macro Finance

I study the link between capital markets and sources of macroeconomic risk. In chapter 1 I show that expected inflation risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns even after controlling for cash flow growth and volatility risks. Motivated by this evidence I study a long run risk model with a built-in inflation non-neutrality channel that allows me to decompose the real stochastic discount factor into news about current and expected cash flow growth, news about expected inflation and news about volatility. The model can successfully price a broad menu of assets and provides a setting for analyzing cross sectional variation in expected inflation risk premium. For industries like retail and durable goods inflation risk can account for nearly a third of the overall risk premium while the energy industry and a broad commodity index act like inflation hedges. Nominal bonds are exposed to expected inflation risk and have inflation premiums that increase with bond maturity. The price of expected inflation risk was very high during the 70's and 80's, but has come down a lot since being very close to zero over the past decade. On average, the expected inflation price of risk is negative, consistent with the view that periods of high inflation represent a "bad" state of the world and are associated with low economic growth and poor stock market performance. In chapter 2 I look at the way capital markets react to predetermined macroeconomic announcements. I document significantly higher excess returns on the US stock market on macro release dates as compared to days when no macroeconomic news hit the market. Almost the entire equity premium since 1997 is being realized on days when macroeconomic news are released. At high frequency, there is a pattern of returns increasing in the hours prior to the pre-determined announcement time, peaking around the time of the announcement and dropping thereafter.

The distribution of meiofauna in surface sediments of the Fladen Ground, North Sea

A general study of structure, biomass, and dynamic estimates on meiofauna was carried out during PREFLEX (1975) and FLEX (1976), in 117- 141 m water depth. On the basis of these data an attempt was made to estimate meiofauna production, and this is discussed in relation to the energy input from the spring phytoplankton bloom. Sampling was performed at five stations, but only the stations 1, 4, and 5 were covered by a complete series from August 1975 to July 1976. At each station, from four replicate box core samples, two were withdrawn to study the abundance, distribution, and biomass of meiofauna, the content of chloroplastic pigment equivalents (CPE), and chemical and grain size analyses. At all stations grain size fell in the range of fine sand having median diameters (MD) of < 125 µm. From station 1 to 5 an increase in MD was observed. Highest values of CPE (7.81 µg m l**-1) and organic matter (4.7 %) were obtained in June and July (1976)/ August (1975), respectively. Meiofauna abundance was fairly uniform at all stations examined. Station 1 displayed maximal numbers during the whole investigation period. The abundance per 100 cm**2 varied between 15,550 and 34,900 organisms. All meiofauna studied both in total and as separate taxa showed annual cycles of abundance. Low abundance values were recorded during early summer, and maximum values during winter. High numbers of Foraminifera were obtained for August 1975 (9,460 per 100 cm**2) and July 1976 (9,710 per 100 cm**2). From December to June the values decreased from 3,280 to 1,030 per 100 cm**2. At station 1 maximum values of meiofauna biomass were recorded ranging from 1.5 to 2.7 g DWT m**-2. The mean meiofauna dry weight amounted to 2.1 g DWT m**-2. Based on minimum production, the P/B ratio for the area of station 1 might have a mean of 1.4. Taking into consideration generation times we believe that a turnover ratio of 2 is a conservative value for the Fladen Ground meiofauna. The annual production would amount to 4.2 g DWT m**-2 yr**-1. This is 27.5 % of the energy supply during the spring phytoplankton bloom, which is channelled into the meiofauna. The hypothesis is put forward that the energetic strategy of deep offshore meiofauna differs distinctively from that of shallow inshore meiofauna. While the shallow inshore meiofauna show a relatively fast response to organic matter input, the deep offshore meiofauna reacts much more slowly, the food energy consumption seems to be spread out over a longer period.

Grain size distribution and sea level changes in Gåsfjärden fjord

We analysed long-term variations in grain-size distribution in sediments from Gåsfjärden, a fjord-like inlet on the south-west Baltic Sea, and explored potential drivers of the recorded changes in sediment grain-size data. Over the last 5.4 thousand years (ka), the relative sea level decreased 17 m in the study region, caused by isostatic land uplift. As a consequence, Gåsfjärden has been transformed from an open coastal setting into a semi-closed inlet surrounded on the east by numerous small islands. To quantitatively estimate the morphological changes in Gåsfjärden over the last 5.4 ka and to further link the changes to our grain-size data, a digital elevation model (DEM)-based openness index was calculated. In the period between 5.4 and 4.4 ka BP, the inlet was characterised by the largest openness index. During this interval, the highest sand contents (~0.4 %) and silt/clay ratios (~0. 3) in the sediment sequence were recorded, indicating relatively high bottom water energy. After 4.4 ka BP, the average sand content was halved to ~0.2 % and the silt/clay ratios showed a significant decreasing trend over the last 4 ka. These changes are found to be associated with the gradual embayment of Gåsfjärden as represented in the openness index. The silt/clay ratios exhibited a delayed and slower change compared with the sand contents, which further suggest that finer particles are less sensitive to changes in hydrodynamic energy. Our DEM-based coastal openness index has proved to be a useful tool for interpreting the sedimentary grain-size record.

Variation in spatial distribution of juvenile loggerhead turtles in the eastern Atlantic and western Mediterranean Sea

[EN] Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) originating from the Western Atlantic carry out one of the largest marine migrations, reaching the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. It has been proposed that this transatlantic journey is simply a consequence of drifting, with the lack of a target destination and a passive dispersal with oceanic currents. This predicts that the size of the source populations and geographic distance to the feeding grounds should play important roles in defining stock composition in the eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea.

Financial stocks and political bonds: stock market participation and political behavior in the United States and Britain

This dissertation investigates the effect of stock market participation on political behavior. Some observers claim that financial assets—stocks and mutual funds—have a causal effect on political behavior. The “investor class theory” asserts that as people invest in the stock market their partisan attachments shift rightward. The “asset effect theory” claims that financial investments increase political interest and participation. I examine these claims with longitudinal data from the United States and Great Britain covering a twenty-year period from the early 1980s through the mid-2000’s. I also examine the effect of financial asset ownership on political attitudes in the United States during the 2008 stock market crash. I find no evidence to support the argument that stock market participation has any causal effect on partisanship, participation, or political attitudes.

Is land condition a useful indicator of soil organic carbon stock in Australia?

The grazing lands of northern Australia contain a substantial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock due to the large land area. Manipulating SOC stocks through grazing management has been presented as an option to offset national greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and other industries. However, research into the response of SOC stocks to a range of management activities has variously shown positive, negative or negligible change. This uncertainty in predicting change in SOC stocks represents high project risk for government and industry in relation to SOC sequestration programs. In this paper, we seek to address the uncertainty in SOC stock prediction by assessing relationships between SOC stocks and grazing land condition indicators. We reviewed the literature to identify land condition indicators for analysis and tested relationships between identified land condition indicators and SOC stock using data from a paired-site sampling experiment (10 sites). We subsequently collated SOC stock datasets at two scales (quadrat and paddock) from across northern Australia (329 sites) to compare with the findings of the paired-site sampling experiment with the aim of identifying the land condition indicators that had the strongest relationship with SOC stock. The land condition indicators most closely correlated with SOC stocks across datasets and analysis scales were tree basal area, tree canopy cover, ground cover, pasture biomass and the density of perennial grass tussocks. In combination with soil type, these indicators accounted for up to 42% of the variation in the residuals after climate effects were removed. However, we found that responses often interacted with soil type, adding complexity and increasing the uncertainty associated with predicting SOC stock change at any particular location. We recommend that caution be exercised when considering SOC offset projects in northern Australian grazing lands due to the risk of incorrectly predicting changes in SOC stocks with change in land condition indicators and management activities for a particular paddock or property. Despite the uncertainty for generating SOC sequestration income, undertaking management activities to improve land condition is likely to have desirable complementary benefits such as improving productivity and profitability as well as reducing adverse environmental impact.

Essays in asset price bubbles

This thesis studies the field of asset price bubbles. It is comprised of three independent chapters. Each of these chapters either directly or indirectly analyse the existence or implications of asset price bubbles. The type of bubbles assumed in each of these chapters is consistent with rational expectations. Thus, the kind of price bubbles investigated here are known as rational bubbles in the literature. The following describes the three chapters. Chapter 1: This chapter attempts to explain the recent US housing price bubble by developing a heterogeneous agent endowment economy asset pricing model with risky housing, endogenous collateral and defaults. Investment in housing is subject to an idiosyncratic risk and some mortgages are defaulted in equilibrium. We analytically derive the leverage or the endogenous loan to value ratio. This variable comes from a limited participation constraint in a one period mortgage contract with monitoring costs. Our results show that low values of housing investment risk produces a credit easing effect encouraging excess leverage and generates credit driven rational price bubbles in the housing good. Conversely, high values of housing investment risk produces a credit crunch characterized by tight borrowing constraints, low leverage and low house prices. Furthermore, the leverage ratio was found to be procyclical and the rate of defaults countercyclical consistent with empirical evidence. Chapter 2: It is widely believed that financial assets have considerable persistence and are susceptible to bubbles. However, identification of this persistence and potential bubbles is not straightforward. This chapter tests for price bubbles in the United States housing market accounting for long memory and structural breaks. The intuition is that the presence of long memory negates price bubbles while the presence of breaks could artificially induce bubble behaviour. Hence, we use procedures namely semi-parametric Whittle and parametric ARFIMA procedures that are consistent for a variety of residual biases to estimate the value of the long memory parameter, d, of the log rent-price ratio. We find that the semi-parametric estimation procedures robust to non-normality and heteroskedasticity errors found far more bubble regions than parametric ones. A structural break was identified in the mean and trend of all the series which when accounted for removed bubble behaviour in a number of regions. Importantly, the United States housing market showed evidence for rational bubbles at both the aggregate and regional levels. In the third and final chapter, we attempt to answer the following question: To what extend should individuals participate in the stock market and hold risky assets over their lifecycle? We answer this question by employing a lifecycle consumption-portfolio choice model with housing, labour income and time varying predictable returns where the agents are constrained in the level of their borrowing. We first analytically characterize and then numerically solve for the optimal asset allocation on the risky asset comparing the return predictability case with that of IID returns. We successfully resolve the puzzles and find equity holding and participation rates close to the data. We also find that return predictability substantially alter both the level of risky portfolio allocation and the rate of stock market participation. High factor (dividend-price ratio) realization and high persistence of factor process indicative of stock market bubbles raise the amount of wealth invested in risky assets and the level of stock market participation, respectively. Conversely, rare disasters were found to bring down these rates, the change being severe for investors in the later years of the life-cycle. Furthermore, investors following time varying returns (return predictability) hedged background risks significantly better than the IID ones.

Granulocyte-colony stimulating factor in experimental stroke and its effects on infarct size and functional outcome: a systematic review

Background Granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) shows promise as a treatment for stroke. This systematic review assesses G-CSF in experimental ischaemic stroke. Methods Relevant studies were identified with searches of Medline, Embase and PubMed. Data were extracted on stroke lesion size, neurological outcome and quality, and analysed using Cochrane Review Manager using random effects models; results are expressed as standardised mean difference (SMD) and odds ratio (OR). Results Data were included from 19 publications incorporating 666 animals. G-CSF reduced lesion size significantly in transient (SMD -1.63, p<0.00001) but not permanent (SMD -1.56, p=0.11) focal models of ischaemia. Lesion size was reduced at all doses and with treatment commenced within 4 hours of transient ischaemia. Neurological deficit (SMD -1.37, p=0.0004) and limb placement (SMD -1.88, p=0.003) improved with G-CSF; however, locomotor activity (>4 weeks post ischaemia) was not (SMD 0.76, p=0.35). Death (OR 0.27, p<0.0001) was reduced with G-CSF. Median study quality was 4 (range 0-7/8); Egger’s test suggested significant publication bias (p=0.001). Conclusions G-CSF significantly reduced lesion size in transient but not permanent models of ischaemic stroke. Motor impairment and death were also reduced. Further studies assessing dose-response, administration time, length of ischaemia and long-term functional recovery are needed.

Is size structure a good measure of future trends of plant populations? an empirical approach using five woody species from the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna)

Size distributions in woody plant populations have been used to assess their regeneration status, assuming that size structures with reverse-J shapes represent stable populations. We present an empirical approach of this issue using five woody species from the Cerrado. Considering count data for all plants of these five species over a 12-year period, we analyzed size distribution by: a) plotting frequency distributions and their adjustment to the negative exponential curve and b) calculating the Gini coefficient. To look for a relationship between size structure and future trends, we considered the size structures from the first census year. We analyzed changes in number over time and performed a simple population viability analysis, which gives the mean population growth rate, its variance and the probability of extinction in a given time period. Frequency distributions and the Gini coefficient were not able to predict future trends in population numbers. We recommend that managers should not use measures of size structure as a basis for management decisions without applying more appropriate demographic studies.