Critical values for unit root and cointegration test statistics - the use of response surface equations

This note considers the value of surface response equations which can be used to calculate critical values for a range of unit root and cointegration tests popular in applied economic research.

Is the Australian wool futures market efficient as a predictor of spot prices?

Giles and Goss (1980) have suggested that, if a futures market provides a forward pricing function, then it is an efficient market. In this article a simple test for whether the Australian Wool Futures market is efficient is proposed. The test is based on applying cointegration techniques to test the Law of One Price over a three, six, nine, and twelve month spread of futures prices. We found that the futures market is efficient for up to a six-month spread, but no further into the future. Because futures market prices can be used to predict spot prices up to six months in advance, woolgrowers can use the futures price to assess when they market their clip, but not for longer-term production planning decisions. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Groups with exponent six

Burnside asked questions about periodic groups in his influential paper of 1902. The study of groups with exponent six is a special case of the study of the Burnside questions on which there has been significant progress. It has contributed a number of worthwhile aspects to the theory of groups and in particular to computation related to groups. Finitely generated groups with exponent six are finite. We investigate the nature of relations required to provide proofs of finiteness for some groups with exponent six. We give upper and lower bounds for the number of sixth powers needed to define the largest 2-generator group with exponent six. We solve related questions about other groups with exponent sis using substantial computations which we explain.

A six-year longitudinal study of the relationship of physical activity to bone mineral accrual in growing children: The University of Saskatchewan bone mineral accrual study

To investigate the influence of physical activity on bone mineral accrual during the adolescent years, we analyzed 6 years of data from 53 girls and 60 boys. Physical activity, dietary intakes, and anthropometry were measured every 6 months and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans of the total body (TB), lumbar spine (LS), and proximal femur (Hologic 2000, array mode) were collected annually. Distance and velocity curves for height and bone mineral content (BMC) were fitted for each child at several skeletal sites using a cubic spline procedure, from which ages at peak height velocity (PHV) and peak BMC velocity (PBMCV) were identified. A mean age- and gender-specific standardized activity (Z) score was calculated for each subject based on multiple yearly activity assessments collected up until age of PHV. This score was used to identify active (top quartile), average (middle 2 quartiles), or inactive (bottom quartile) groups. Two-way analysis of covariance, with height and weight at PHV controlled for, demonstrated significant physical activity and gender main effects (but no interaction) for PBMCV, for BMC accrued for 2 years around peak velocity, and for BMC at 1 year post-PBMCV for the TB and femoral neck and for physical activity but not gender at the LS (all p < 0.05). Controlling for maturational and size differences between groups, we noted a 9% and 17% greater TB BMC for active boys and girls, respectively, over their inactive peers 1 year after the age of PBMCV. We also estimated that, on average, 26% of adult TB bone mineral was accrued during the 2 years around PBMCV.

A test of competing explanations of compensation demanded

We find that prospect theory behavior is significantly more prevalent than utility theory behavior in experiments involving multiple, real items. In the experiments, subjects were endowed with three items and asked the minimum payments they required to be willing to return one, two, or three of them. Our key observation is that prospect theory implies concavity of compensation demanded, whereas utility theory implies convexity. We examine whether the compensation demanded is convex or concave in the number of items returned. (JEL C91).

Evolution of the genetic covariance between male and female components of mate recognition: An experimental test

The evolution of a positive genetic correlation between male and female components of mate recognition systems will result as a consequence of assortative mating and, in particular, is central to a number of theories of sexual selection. Although the existence of such genetic correlations has been investigated in a number of taxa, it has yet to be shown that such correlations evolve and whether they may evolve as rapidly as suggested by sexual selection models. In this study, I used a hybridization experiment to disrupt natural mate recognition systems and then observed the subsequent evolutionary dynamics of the genetic correlation between male and female components for 56 generations in hybrids between Drosophila serrata and Drosophila birchii. The genetic correlation between male and female components evolved from 0.388 at generation 5 to 1.017 at generation 37 and then declined to -0.040 after a further 19 generations. These results indicated that the genetic basis of the mate recognition system in the hybrid populations evolved rapidly. The initial rapid increase in the genetic correlation was consistent with the classic assumption that male and female components will coevolve under sexual selection. The subsequent decline in genetic correlation may be attributable to the fixation of major genes or, alternatively, may be a result of a cyclic evolutionary change in mate recognition.

Season-specific directional movement in migratory Australian butterflies

Large numbers of adults of certain species of butterfly flying in an apparently 'purposeful' manner are often noted by entomologists and the general public. Occasionally, these are recorded in the literature. Using these records we summarise information regarding the direction of movement in Australian butterflies and test whether there are consistent patterns that could account for known seasonal shifts in geographical range. The data were analysed using contingency tables and directionality statistics. Vanessa itea, Vanessa kershawi, Danaus plexippus, Danaus chrysippus and Badamia exclamationis flew predominately south in the spring-summer and north in the autumn-winter. Tirumala hamata has a strong southern component to its flight in spring but, as in Euploea core, appears non-directional in the autumn. For many supposedly known migratory species, the number of literature records are few, particularly in one season (mainly autumn). Thus, for Appias paulina, four of seven records were south in the spring-summer, as were six of nine records for Catopsilia pomona, and three of five for Zizina labradus. For Belenois java, flight records were only available for the spring and these showed geographical differences; predominantly north-west in northern Australia (Queensland) and south-west in southern Australia (Victoria, New South Wales). There were too few records for Papilio demoleus in the literature (four only) to draw any conclusions. Major exceptions to the seasonal trend of south in the spring and north in the autumn were Junonia villida, which showed a predominant north-westward direction in both seasons, and Eurema smilax, with a predominant southern or western flight in both seasons. We discuss these species specific trends in migration direction in relation to seasonal shifts in suitable habitat conditions, possible cues used in orientation and in timing changes in direction.

Boston naming test results for healthy older Australians: A longitudinal and cross-sectional study

This study reports on a sample of normal Australian elderly who were assessed for naming ability using the Boston Naming Test (BNT). The study aimed to examine and compare the changes in naming ability, using both longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis, and determine the relationships between naming ability and age, educational level, visual acuity and gender and cultural relevance. Contradictory findings were produced regarding age and were dependent on the research design. Longitudinal analysis showed no age-related change in naming ability in subjects over a four-period. In contrast, cross-sectional analysis showed a weak but significant correlation between age and naming ability. Educational level, visual acuity and gender were unrelated to changes in naming ability over time, and unrelated to naming ability across the cohort of elderly. The Australian elderly performed better on the modified Australian version of the BNT than on the original American version. Thus, clinicians need to be cautious when interpreting the results of the BNT for elderly and for populations outside North America. The results of this study also indicate a need for further longitudinal research of a greater duration to establish age-related decline in naming ability.

The clinical utility of the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test as a screening test for mild dementia

Objective. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test (HVLT) could be used as a valid and reliable screening test for mild dementia in older people, and to compare its performance to that of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Method. Using a cross-sectional design, we studied three groups of older subjects recruited from a district geriatric psychiatry service: (1) 26 patients with DSM-IV dementia and MMSE scores of 18 or better; (2) 15 patients with psychiatric diagnoses other than dementia; and (3) 15 normal controls. The relationship of each potential cutting point on the HVLT and the MMSE was examined against the independently ascertained DSM-IV diagnoses of dementia using a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results. The subjects consisted of 21 (37.5%) males and 35 (62.5%) females with a mean age of 74.7 (SD 6.1) years and a mean of 8.5 (SD 1.8) years of formal education. ROC analysis indicated that the optimal cutting point for detecting mild dementia in this group of subjects using the HVLT was 18/19 (sensitivity = 0.96, specificity = 0.80) and using the MMSE was 25/26 (sensitivity = 0.88, specificity = 0.93). Conclusions. The HVLT can be recommended as a valid and reliable screening test for mild dementia and as an adjunct in the clinical assessment of older people. The HVLT had better sensitivity than the MMSE in detecting patients with mild dementia, whereas the MMSE had better specificity. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Volunteer decision making by older people: A test of a revised theory of planned behavior

This study was designed to test the utility of a revised theory of planned behavior in the prediction of intentions to volunteer among older people. Such a perspective allowed for the consideration of a broader range of social and contextual factors than has been examined in previous research on volunteer decision making among older people. The article reports the findings from a study that investigated volunteer intentions and behavior in a random sample of older people aged 65 to 74 years living in an Australian capital city. Results showed that, as predicted by the revised theory of planned behavior, intention to volunteer predicted subsequent reported volunteer behavior. Intention was, in turn, predicted by social norms (both subjective and behavioral), perceived behavioral control, and moral obligation, with the effect of attitude being mediated through moral obligation.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Cervical screening: population-based comparisons between self-reported survey and registry-derived Pap test rates

Objective: To compare self-reported cervical screening rates, as recorded in the 1998 NSW Health Survey, with registry-based cervical screening rates for NSW for the same period; and to examine factors associated with over-estimates of cervical screening rates by self-report. Methods: Self-reported cervical screening data was extracted from the 1998 NSW Health Survey, biennial screening rates estimated and compared with biennial cervical screening rates for 1997-98, as recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register (PTR). Rates and differences were related to socio-demographic characteristics of the 17 Area Health Services of NSW. Results: According to the 1998 NSW Health Survey, 74% of women reported having a Pap test during the previous two years. The equivalent rate recorded on the NSW PTR for 1997-98 was 62% (p

A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.