The Phosphorus Indicators Tool: a simple model of diffuse P loss from agricultural land to water

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool provides a catchment-scale estimation of diffuse phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to surface waters using the most appropriate indicators of P loss. The Tool provides a framework that may be applied across the UK to estimate P loss, which is sensitive not only to land use and management but also to environmental factors such as climate, soil type and topography. The model complexity incorporated in the P Indicators Tool has been adapted to the level of detail in the available data and the need to reflect the impact of changes in agriculture. Currently, the Tool runs on an annual timestep and at a 1 km(2) grid scale. We demonstrate that the P Indicators Tool works in principle and that its modular structure provides a means of accounting for P loss from one layer to the next, and ultimately to receiving waters. Trial runs of the Tool suggest that modelled P delivery to water approximates measured water quality records. The transparency of the structure of the P Indicators Tool means that identification of poorly performing coefficients is possible, and further refinements of the Tool can be made to ensure it is better calibrated and subsequently validated against empirical data, as it becomes available.

Making development simple. The genetic deterministic hypothesis for economic development

This paper discusses the dangers inherent in allempting to simplify something as complex as development. It does this by exploring the Lynn and Vanhanen theory of deterministic development which asserts that varying levels of economic development seen between countries can be explained by differences in 'national intelligence' (national IQ). Assuming that intelligence is genetically determined, and as different races have been shown to have different IQ, then they argue that economic development (measured as GDP/capita) is largely a function of race and interventions to address imbalances can only have a limited impact. The paper presents the Lynne and Vanhanen case and critically discusses the data and analyses (linear regression) upon which it is based. It also extends the cause-effect basis of Lynne and Vanhanen's theory for economic development into human development by using the Human Development Index (HDI). It is argued that while there is nothing mathematically incorrect with their calculations, there are concerns over the data they employ. Even more fundamentally it is argued that statistically significant correlations between the various components of the HDI and national IQ can occur via a host of cause-effect pathways, and hence the genetic determinism theory is far from proven. The paper ends by discussing the dangers involved in the use of over-simplistic measures of development as a means of exploring cause-effect relationships. While the creators of development indices such as the HDI have good intentions, simplistic indices can encourage simplistic explanations of under-development. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simple model for predicting soil temperature in snow-covered and seasonally frozen soil: model description and testing

Microbial processes in soil are moisture, nutrient and temperature dependent and, consequently, accurate calculation of soil temperature is important for modelling nitrogen processes. Microbial activity in soil occurs even at sub-zero temperatures so that, in northern latitudes, a method to calculate soil temperature under snow cover and in frozen soils is required. This paper describes a new and simple model to calculate daily values for soil temperature at various depths in both frozen and unfrozen soils. The model requires four parameters average soil thermal conductivity, specific beat capacity of soil, specific heat capacity due to freezing and thawing and an empirical snow parameter. Precipitation, air temperature and snow depth (measured or calculated) are needed as input variables. The proposed model was applied to five sites in different parts of Finland representing different climates and soil types. Observed soil temperatures at depths of 20 and 50 cm (September 1981-August 1990) were used for model calibration. The calibrated model was then tested using observed soil temperatures from September 1990 to August 2001. R-2-values of the calibration period varied between 0.87 and 0.96 at a depth of 20 cm and between 0.78 and 0.97 at 50 cm. R-2 -values of the testing period were between 0.87 and 0.94 at a depth of 20cm. and between 0.80 and 0.98 at 50cm. Thus, despite the simplifications made, the model was able to simulate soil temperature at these study sites. This simple model simulates soil temperature well in the uppermost soil layers where most of the nitrogen processes occur. The small number of parameters required means, that the model is suitable for addition to catchment scale models.

Effect of high dose selenium enriched yeast diets on the distribution of total selenium and selenium species within lamb tissues

The objective of this study was to determine the distribution of total selenium (Se) and of the proportion of total Se comprised as the selenized amino acids selenomethionine (SeMet) and selenocysteine (SeCys) within the post mortem tissues of lambs that were fed high dose selenized enriched yeast (SY), derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisae CNCM (Collection Nationale de Culture de Micro-organism) I-3060. Thirty two Texel X Suffolk lambs (6.87 ± 0.23 kg BW) were offered both reconstituted milk replacer and a pelleted diet, both of which had been either supplemented with high SY (6.30 ± 0.18 mg Se/kg DM) or unsupplemented (0.13 ± 0.01 mg Se/kg of DM), depending on treatment designation, for a continuous period of 91 d. At enrollment and 28, 56 and 91 d following enrollment lambs were blood sampled. At the completion of the treatment period, five lambs from each treatment group were euthanased and samples of heart, liver, kidney and skeletal muscle (Longissimus Dorsi and Psoas Major) were retained for Se analysis. The inclusion of high SY increased (P < 0.001) whole blood Se concentration, reaching a maximum mean value of 815.2 ± 19.1 ng Se/mL compared with 217.8 ± 9.1 ng Se/mL in control animals. Tissue total Se concentrations were significantly (P < 0.001) higher in SY supplemented animals than in controls irrespective of tissue type; values were 26, 16, 8 and 3 times higher in skeletal muscle, liver, heart and kidney tissue of HSY lambs when compared to controls. however, the distribution of total Se and the proportions of total Se comprised as either SeMet or SeCys differed between tissue types. Selenocysteine was the predominant selenized amino acid in glandular tissues, such the liver and kidney. irrespective of treatment, although absolute values were markedly higher in HSY lambs. Conversely selenomethionine was the predominat selenized amino acid in cardiac and skeletal muscle (Longissimus Dorsi, and Psoas Major) tissues in HSY animals, although the same trend was not apparent for control lambs in which SeCys was the predominant selenized amino acid. It was concluded that there were increases in both whole blood and tissue total Se concentrations as a result of dietary supplementation with high dose of SY. Furthermore, distribution of total Se and Se species differed between both treatment designation and tissue type.

Intake, growth and meat quality of steers given diets based on varying proportions of maize silage and grass silage

Simmental × Holstein-Friesian steers were offered four forage diets. These comprised grass silage (G); proportionately 0·67 grass silage, proportionately 0·33 maize silage (GGM); 0·33 grass silage, 0·67 maize silage ( MMG); maize silage ( M) from 424 (s.d. = 11·5) kg to slaughter at a minimum weight of 560 kg. Forages were mixed and offered ad libitum. Steers were offered 2 kg of a concentrate daily, the concentrate being formulated such that all steers had similar crude protein intakes across dietary treatments. A sample of steers was slaughtered at the beginning of the experimental period to allow the calculation of the rate of gain of the carcass and its components. Carcass dissection of a sample of steers allowed the development of a prediction equation of carcass composition based on thoracic limb dissection of all carcasses. Forage dry matter intake and live-weight gain increased linearly as maize silage replaced grass silage in the forage mixture, resulting in improvements in food conversion ratio (all P = 0·001). Killing-out proportion increased with maize silage inclusion ( P < 0·001) but fat and conformation scores did not differ significantly between diets. However, increasing maize inclusion in the diet resulted in a greater weight ( P = 0·05) and proportion ( P = 0·008) of fat in the carcass, and significant increases in internal fat deposition. The inclusion of maize led to a progressive increase in the daily gains of carcass ( P < 0·001), and significant increases in the daily gains of both fat ( P < 0·001) and lean tissue ( P < 0·001). Fat colour was more yellow in cattle given diets G and GGM than diets MMG and M ( P < 0·001) and colour intensity was lower on diet M than the other three diets ( P < 0·001). There were no significant differences in any aspects of eating quality between diets. Therefore, maize silage has the potential to reduce the time taken for finishing beef animals to achieve slaughter weight with no apparent detrimental effects on subsequent meat quality.

Digestion, rumen fermentation and circulating concentrations of insulin, growth hormone and IGF-1 in steers fed diets based on different proportions of maize silage and grass silage

Replacing grass silage with maize silage results in a fundamental change in the ratio of structural to non-structural carbohydrates with commensurate changes in rumen fermentation patterns and nutrient utilisation. This study investigated the effects of feeding four forage mixtures, namely grass silage (G); 67 g/100 g grass silage133 g/100 g maize silage (GGM); 67 g/100 g maize silage133/100 g grass silage (MMG); maize silage (M) to four ruminally and duodenally canulated Holstein Friesian steers. All diets were formulated to be isonitrogenous (22.4 g N/kg DM) using a concentrate mixture. Dietary dry matter (DM) and organic matter (OM) digestibility increased with ascending maize silage inclusion (P,0.1) whereas starch and neutral detergent fibre digestibility declined (P,0.05). Ratio of non-glucogenic to glucogenic precursors in the rumen fluid increased with maize silage inclusion (P,0.01) with a commensurate reduction in rumen pH (P,0.05). Mean circulating concentrations of insulin were greatest and similar in diets MMG and GGM, lower in diet M and lowest in diet G (P,0.01). There were no effects of diet on the mean circulating concentration of growth hormone (GH), or the frequency, amplitude and duration of GH pulses, or the mean circulating concentrations of IGF-1. Increasing levels of DM, OM and starch intakes with the substitution of grass silage with maize silage affected overall digestion, nutrient partitioning and subsequent circulating concentrations of insulin.

Modeling infant speech sound discrimination using simple associative networks

Infants' responses in speech sound discrimination tasks can be nonmonotonic over time. Stager and Werker (1997) reported such data in a bimodal habituation task. In this task, 8-month-old infants were capable of discriminations that involved minimal contrast pairs, whereas 14-month-old infants were not. It was argued that the older infants' attenuated performance was linked to their processing of the stimuli for meaning. The authors suggested that these data are diagnostic of a qualitative shift in infant cognition. We describe an associative connectionist model showing a similar decrement in discrimination without any qualitative shift in processing. The model suggests that responses to phonemic contrasts may be a nonmonotonic function of experience with language. The implications of this idea are discussed. The model also provides a formal framework for studying habituation-dishabituation behaviors in infancy.