Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Stakeholders' assessment of welfare indicators for sheep and cattle exported by sea from Australia

An adaptive conjoint analysis was use to evaluate stakeholders' opinion of welfare indicators for ship-transported sheep and cattle, both onboard and in pre-export depots. In consultations with two nominees of each identified stakeholder group (government officials, animal welfare representatives, animal scientists, stockpersons, producers/pre-export depot operators, exporters/ship owners and veterinarians), 18 potential indicators were identified Three levels were assigned to each using industry statistics and expert opinion, representing those observed on the best and worst 5% of voyages and an intermediate value. A computer-based questionnaire was completed by 135 stakeholders (48% of those invited). All indicators were ranked by respondents in the assigned order, except fodder intake, in which case providing the amount necessary to maintain bodyweight was rated better than over or underfeeding, and time in the pre-export assembly depot, in which case 5 days was rated better than 0 or 10 days. The respective Importance Values (a relative rating given by the respondent) for each indicator were, in order of declining importance: mortality (8.6%), clinical disease incidence (8.2%), respiration rate (6.8%), space allowance (6.2%), ammonia levels (6.1%), weight change (6.0%), wet bulb temperature (6.0%), time in assembly depot (5.4%), percentage of animals in hospital pen (5.4%), fodder intake (5.2%), stress-related metabolites (5.0%), percentage of feeding trough utilised (5.0%), injuries (4.8%), percentage of animals able to access food troughs at any one time (4.8%), percentage of animals lying down (4.7%), cortisol concentration (4.5Y.), noise (3.9y.), and photoperiod (3.4%). The different stakeholder groups were relatively consistent in their ranking of the indicators, with all groups nominating the some top two and at least five of the top seven indicators. Some of the top indicators, in particular mortality, disease incidence and temperature, are already recorded in the Australian industry, but the study identified potential new welfare indicators for exported livestock, such as space allowance and ammonia concentration, which could be used to improve welfare standards if validated by scientific data. The top indicators would also be useful worldwide for countries engaging in long distance sea transport of livestock.

Genetic population structure of red snappers (Lutjanus malabaricus Bloch & Schneider, 1801 and Lutjanus erythropterus Bloch, 1790) in central and eastern Indonesia and northern Australia

The genetic population structure of red snapper Lutjanus malabaricus and Lutjanus erythropterus in eastern Indonesia and northern Australia was investigated by allozyme electrophoresis and sequence variation in the control region of mtDNA. Samples were collected from eight sites in Indonesia and four sites in northern Australia for both species. A total of 13 allozyme loci were scored. More variable loci were observed in L. malabaricus than in L. erythropterus. Sequence variation in the control region (left domain) of the mitochondrial genome was assessed by RFLP and direct sequencing. MtDNA haplotype diversity was high (L. erythropterus, 0.95 and L. malabaricus, 0.97), as was intraspecific sequence divergence, (L. erythropterus, 0.0-12.5% and L. malabaricus, 0.0-9.5%). The pattern of mtDNA haplotype frequencies grouped both species into two broad fisheries stocks with a genetic boundary either between Kupang and Sape (L. malabaricus) or between Kupang and Australian Timor Sea (L. erythropertus). The allozyme analyses revealed similar boundaries for L. erythropterus. Seven allozymes stocks compared to two mtDNA stocks of L. malabaricus including Ambon, which was not sampled with mtDNA, however, were reported. Possible reasons for differences in discrimination between the methods include: i) increased power of multiple allozyme loci over the single mtDNA locus, ii) insufficient gene sampling in the mtDNA control region and iii) relative evolutionary dynamics of nuclear (allozyme loci) and mitochondrial DNA in these taxa. Allozyme and haplotype data did not distinguish separate stocks among the four Australian locations nor the central Indonesian (Bali and Sape locations) for both L. malabaricus and L. erythropterus.

An adaptive power-system stabiliser which cancels the negative damping torque of a synchronous generator

The paper presents a new criterion for designing a power-system stabiliser, which is that it should cancel the negative damping torque inherent in a synchronous generator and automatic voltage regulator. The method arises from analysis based on the properties of tensor invariance, but it is easily implemented, and leads to the design of an adaptive controller. Extensive computations and simulation have been performed, and laboratory tests have been conducted on a computer-controlled micromachine system. Results are presented illustrating the effectiveness of the adaptive stabiliser.

Satellite evidence of harmful algal blooms and related oceanographic features in the Bohai Sea during autumn 1998

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are truly global marine phenomena of increasing significance. Some HAB occurrences are different to observe because of their high spatial and temporal variability and their advection, once formed, by surface currents. A serious HAB occurred in the Bohai Sea during autumn 1998, causing the largest fisheries economic loss. The present study analyzes the formation, distribution, and advection of HAB using satellite SeaWiFS ocean color data and other oceanographic data. The results show that the bloom originated in the western coastal waters of the Bohai Sea in early September, and developed southeastward when sea surface temperature (SST) increased to 25-26 °C. The bloom with a high Chl-a concentration (6.5 mg m-3) in center portion covered an area of 60 × 65 km2. At the end of September, the bloom decayed when SST decreased to 22-23 °C. The HAB may have been initiated by a combination of the river discharge nutrients in the west coastal waters and the increase of SST; afterwards it may have been transported eastward by the local circulation that was enhanced by northwesterly winds in late September and early October.

Evaluation of Charges for Power Transmission and Losses in Bilateral Power Contracts

The paper presents a method for transmission loss charge allocation in deregulated power systems based on Relative Electrical Distance (RED) concept. Based on RED between the generator and load nodes and the predefined bilateral power contracts, charge evaluation is carried out. Generally through some power exchange mechanism a set of bilateral contracts are determined that facilitate bilateral agreements between the generation and distribution entities. In this paper the possible charges incurred in meeting loads like generation charge, transmission charge and charge due to losses are evaluated. Case studies have been carried out on a few practical equivalent systems. Due to space limitation results for a sample 5 bus system are presented considering ideal load/generation power contracts and deviated load/generation power contracts. Extensive numerical testing indicates that the proposed allocation scheme produces loss allocations that are appropriate and that behave in a physically reasonable manner.

Indian Ocean sea surface salinity variations in a coupled model

The variability of the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indian Ocean is studied using a 100-year control simulation of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 2.0). The monsoon-driven seasonal SSS pattern in the Indian Ocean, marked by low salinity in the east and high salinity in the west, is captured by the model. The model overestimates runoff int the Bay of Bengal due to higher rainfall over the Himalayan-Tibetan regions which drain into the Bay of Bengal through Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers. The outflow of low-salinity water from the Bay of Bengal is to strong in the model. Consequently, the model Indian Ocean SSS is about 1 less than that seen in the climatology. The seasonal Indian Ocean salt balance obtained from the model is consistent with the analysis from climatological data sets. During summer, the large freshwater input into the Bay of Bengal and its redistribution decide the spatial pattern of salinity tendency. During winter, horizontal advection is the dominant contributor to the tendency term. The interannual variability of the SSS in the Indian Ocean is about five times larger than that in coupled model simulations of the North Atlantic Ocean. Regions of large interannual standard deviations are located near river mouths in the Bay of Bengal and in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Both freshwater input into the ocean and advection of this anomalous flux are responsible for the generation of these anomalies. The model simulates 20 significant Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and during IOD years large salinity anomalies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The anomalies exist as two zonal bands: negative salinity anomalies to the north of the equator and positive to the south. The SSS anomalies for the years in which IOD is not present and for ENSO years are much weaker than during IOD years. Significant interannual SSS anomalies appear in the Indian Ocean only during IOD years.

Assessing organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems : Methodological evidence from studies in nuclear power plant maintenance organizations

Failures in industrial organizations dealing with hazardous technologies can have widespread consequences for the safety of the workers and the general population. Psychology can have a major role in contributing to the safe and reliable operation of these technologies. Most current models of safety management in complex sociotechnical systems such as nuclear power plant maintenance are either non-contextual or based on an overly-rational image of an organization. Thus, they fail to grasp either the actual requirements of the work or the socially-constructed nature of the work in question. The general aim of the present study is to develop and test a methodology for contextual assessment of organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems. This is done by demonstrating the findings that the application of the emerging methodology produces in the domain of maintenance of a nuclear power plant (NPP). The concepts of organizational culture and organizational core task (OCT) are operationalized and tested in the case studies. We argue that when the complexity of the work, technology and social environment is increased, the significance of the most implicit features of organizational culture as a means of coordinating the work and achieving safety and effectiveness of the activities also increases. For this reason a cultural perspective could provide additional insight into the problem of safety management. The present study aims to determine; (1) the elements of the organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems; (2) the demands the maintenance task sets for the organizational culture; (3) how the current organizational culture at the case organizations supports the perception and fulfilment of the demands of the maintenance work; (4) the similarities and differences between the maintenance cultures at the case organizations, and (5) the necessary assessment of the organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems. Three in-depth case studies were carried out at the maintenance units of three Nordic NPPs. The case studies employed an iterative and multimethod research strategy. The following methods were used: interviews, CULTURE-survey, seminars, document analysis and group work. Both cultural analysis and task modelling were carried out. The results indicate that organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems can be characterised according to three qualitatively different elements: structure, internal integration and conceptions. All three of these elements of culture as well as their interrelations have to be considered in organizational assessments or important aspects of the organizational dynamics will be overlooked. On the basis of OCT modelling, the maintenance core task was defined as balancing between three critical demands: anticipating the condition of the plant and conducting preventive maintenance accordingly, reacting to unexpected technical faults and monitoring and reflecting on the effects of maintenance actions and the condition of the plant. The results indicate that safety was highly valued at all three plants, and in that sense they all had strong safety cultures. In other respects the cultural features were quite different, and thus the culturally-accepted means of maintaining high safety also differed. The handicraft nature of maintenance work was emphasised as a source of identity at the NPPs. Overall, the importance of safety was taken for granted, but the cultural norms concerning the appropriate means to guarantee it were little reflected. A sense of control, personal responsibility and organizational changes emerged as challenging issues at all the plants. The study shows that in complex sociotechnical systems it is both necessary and possible to analyse the safety and effectiveness of the organizational culture. Safety in complex sociotechnical systems cannot be understood or managed without understanding the demands of the organizational core task and managing the dynamics between the three elements of the organizational culture.

China, film coproduction and soft power competition

This thesis investigates China's film internationalism and coproduction strategy based on three cases: Hong Kong and China film coproduction; US and China without any state-level agreements; Australia and China based on an official coproduction treaty. It investigates the evolution of coproduction in the film industry, the process of coproduction, foreign film companies' strategies of adjustment to state policies, and the culture and complexities that hinder coproduction. It surveys the current environment for China film coproduction and investigates the degree to which film coproduction has been - to this stage - a contributor to China's global cultural presence – its soft power.

Stream power criterion and design of sand bed channels at incipient motion

The critical stream power criterion may be used to describe the incipient motion of cohesionless particles of plane sediment beds. The governing equation relating ``critical stream power'' to ``shear Reynolds number'' is developed by using the present experimental data as well as the data from several other sources. Simultaneously, a resistance equation, relating the ``particle Reynolds number'' to the``shear Reynolds number'' is developed for plane sediment beds in wide channels with little or no transport. By making use of these relations, a procedure is developed to design plane sediment beds such that any two of the four design variables, including particle size, energy/friction slope, flow depth, and discharge per unit width in the channel should be known to predict the remaining two variables. Finally, a straightforward design procedure using design tables/design curves and analytical methods is presented to solve six possible design problems.

Hip power analysis in individuals with transfemoral amputation: A different strategy different from stabilisation during gait stance

Introduction and Objectives Joint moments and joint powers during gait are widely used to determine the effects of rehabilitation programs as well as prosthetic fitting. Following the definition of power (dot product of joint moment and joint angular velocity) it has been previously proposed to analyse the 3D angle between both vectors, αMw. Basically, joint power is maximised when both vectors are parallel and cancelled when both vectors are orthogonal. In other words, αMw < 60° reveals a propulsion configuration (more than 50% of the moment contribute to positive power) while αMw > 120° reveals a resistance configuration (more than 50% of the moment contribute to negative power). A stabilisation configuration (less than 50% of the moment contribute to power) corresponds to 60° < αMw < 120°. Previous studies demonstrated that hip joints of able-bodied adults (AB) are mainly in a stabilisation configuration (αMw about 90°) during the stance phase of gait. [1, 2] Individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA) need to maximise joint power at the hip while controlling the prosthetic knee during stance. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that TFAs should adopt a strategy that is different from a continuous stabilisation. The objective of this study was to compute joint power and αMw for TFA and to compare them with AB. Methods Three trials of walking at self-selected speed were analysed for 8 TFAs (7 males and 1 female, 46±10 years old, 1.78±0.08 m 82±13 kg) and 8 ABs (males, 25±3 years old, 1.75±0.04, m 67±6 kg). The joint moments are computed from a motion analysis system (Qualisys, Goteborg, Sweden) and a multi-axial transducer (JR3, Woodland, USA) mounted above the prosthetic knee for TFAs and from a motion analysis system (Motion Analysis, Santa Rosa, USA) and force plates (Bertec, Columbus, USA) for ABs. The TFAs were fitted with an OPRA (Integrum, AB, Gothengurg, Sweden) osseointegrated implant system and their prosthetic designs include pneumatic, hydraulic and microprocessor knees. Previous studies showed that the inverse dynamics computed from the multi-axial transducer is the proper method considering the absorption at the foot and resistance at the knee. Results The peak of positive power at loading response (H1) was earlier and lower for TFA compared to AB. Although the joint power is lower, the 3D angle between joint moment and joint angular velocity, αMw, reveals an obvious propulsion configuration (mean αMw about 20°) for TFA compared to a stabilisation configuration (mean αMw about 70°) for AB. The peaks of negative power at midstance (H2) and of positive power at preswing / initial swing (H3) occurred later, lower and longer for TFA compared to AB. Again, the joint powers are lower for TFA but, in this case, αMw is almost comparable (with a time lag), demonstrating a stabilisation (almost a resistance for TFA, mean αMw about 120°) and a propulsion configuration, respectively. The swing phase is not analysed in the present study. Conclusion The analysis of hip joint power may indicate that TFAs demonstrated less propulsion and resistance than ABs during the stance phase of gait. This is true from a quantitative point of view. On the contrary, the 3D angle between joint moment and joint angular velocity, αMw, reveals that TFAs have a remarkable propulsion strategy at loading response and almost a resistance strategy at midstance while ABs adopted a stabilisation strategy. The propulsion configuration, with αMw close to 0°, seems to aim at maximising the positive joint power. The configuration close to resistance, with αMw far from 180°, might aim at unlocking the prosthetic knee before swing while minimising the negative power. This analysis of both joint power and 3D angle between the joint moment and the joint angular velocity provides complementary insights into the gait strategies of TFA that can be used to support evidence-based rehabilitation and fitting of prosthetic components.

Real-time wide-area loading margin sensitivity (WALMS) in power systems

Loading margin sensitivity (LMS) has been widely used in applications in the realm of voltage stability assessment and control. Typically, LMS is derived based on system equilibrium equations near bifurcation and therefore requires full detailed system model and significant computation effort. Availability of phasor measurement units (PMUs) due to the recent development of wide-area monitoring system (WAMS) provides an alternative computation-friendly approach for calculating LMS. With such motivation, this work proposes measurement-based wide-area loading margin sensitivity (WALMS) in bulk power systems. The proposed sensitivity, with its simplicity, has great potential to be embedded in real-time applications. Moreover, the calculation of the WALMS is not limited to low voltage near bifurcation point. A case study on IEEE 39-bus system verifies the proposed sensitivity. Finally, a voltage control scenario demonstrates the potential application of the WALMS.

Power system stability implications from electromechanical wave propagation

Electromechanical wave propagation characterizes the first-swing dynamic response in a spatially delayed manner. This paper investigates the characteristics of this phenomenon in two-dimensional and one-dimensional power systems. In 2-D systems, the wave front expands as a ripple in a pond. In 1-D systems, the wave front is more concentrated, retains most of its magnitude, and travels like a pulse on a string. This large wave front is more impactful upon any weak link and easily causes transient instability in 1-D systems. The initial disturbance injects both high and low frequency components, but the lumped nature of realistic systems only permits the lower frequency components to propagate through. The kinetic energy split at a junction is equal to the generator inertia ratio in each branch in an idealized continuum system. This prediction is approximately valid in a realistic power system. These insights can enhance understanding and control of the traveling waves.

Application of inverse filtering technique in power system studies

This paper demonstrates the application of inverse filtering technique for power systems. In order to implement this method, the control objective should be based on a system variable that needs to be set on a specific value for each sampling time. A control input is calculated to generate the desired output of the plant and the relationship between the two is used design an auto-regressive model. The auto-regressive model is converted to a moving average model to calculate the control input based on the future values of the desired output. Therefore, required future values to construct the output are predicted to generate the appropriate control input for the next sampling time.