878 resultados para Risk analysis in organizations


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This project was undertaken because of a need to analyse concepts in social science more specifically and sequence them more carefully in a social science program. Concepts have been identified vaguely on many curriculum documents or left in isolation from each other when they are specifically identified. The project's aim was to identify a method for analysing concepts and sequencing their teaching on some rational basis. Once the method for analysing concepts was identified a questionnaire was designed and administered to a random sample of students at the grade three, five and eight levels. The questionnaire attempted to measure their comprehension of specific social science concepts at several levels which became progressively more complex. The major hypothesis was that there would be a direct correlation between age and achievement on the questionnaire. The raw scores were seriated and correlated with the ages of the students using the rankdifference- squared method. For the majority of areas tested it was found that there was a significant correlation between age and achievement on the questionnaire. Variation in the correlation coefficients generated suggests that comprehension of social science concepts is not simply a function of age but is probably a function of several inter-related factors such as reading ability, skill in Basic Thinking Skills and age. Thirty students completed each test. There were three tests in the questionnaire.

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Introduction: The prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) is ever increasing in western industrialized societies. An individuals overall risk for CAD may be quantified by integrating a number of factors including, but not limited to, cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, blood lipid profile and blood pressure. It might be expected that interventions aimed at improving any or all of these independent factors might improve an individual 's overall risk. To this end, the influence of standard endurance type exercise on cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, blood lipids and blood pressure, and by extension the reduction of coronary risk factors, is well documented. On the other hand, interval training (IT) has been shown to provide an extremely powerful stimulus for improving indices of cardiorespiratory function but the influence of this training type on coronary risk factors is unknown. Moreover, the vast majority of studies investigating the effects of IT on fitness have used laboratory type training protocols. As a result of this, the influence of participation in interval-type recreational sports on cardiorespiratory fitness and coronary risk factors is unknown. Aims: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of recreational ball hockey, a sport associated with interval-type activity patterns, on indices of aerobic function and coronary risk factors in sedentary men in the approximate age range of 30 - 60 years. Individual risk factors were compiled into an overall coronary risk factor score using the Framingham Point Scale (FPS). Methods: Twenty-four sedentary males (age range 30 - 60) participated in the study. Subject activity level was assessed apriori using questionnaire responses. All subjects (experimental and control) were assessed to have been inactive and sedentary prior to participation in the study. The experimental group (43 ± 3 years; 90 ± 3 kg) (n = 11) participated in one season of recreational ball hockey (our surrogate for IT). Member of this group played a total of 16 games during an 11 week span. During this time, the control group (43 ± 2 years; 89 ± 2 kg) (n = 11) performed no training and continued with their sedentary lifestyle. Prior to and following the ball hockey season, experimental and control subjects were tested for the following variables: 1) cardiorespiratory fitness (as V02 Max) 2) blood lipid profile 3) body composition 5) waist to hip ratio 6) blood glucose levels and 7) blood pressure. Subject V02 Max was assessed using the Rockport submaximal walking test on an indoor track. To assess body composition we determined body mass ratio (BMI), % body fat, % lean body mass and waist to hip ratio. The blood lipid profile included high density lipoprotein, low density lipoprotein and total cholesterol levels; in addition, the ratio of total cholesterol to high density was calculated. Blood triglycerides were also assessed. All data were analyzed using independent t - tests and all data are expressed as mean ± standard error. Statistical significance was accepted at p :S 0.05. Results: Pre-test values for all variables were similar between the experimental and control group. Moreover, although the intervention used in this study was associated with changes in some variables for subjects in the experimental group, subjects in the control group did not exhibit any changes over the same time period. BODY COMPOSITION: The % body fat of experimental subjects decreased by 4.6 ± 0.5%, from 28.1 ± 2.6 to 26.9 ± 2.5 % while that of the control group was unchanged at 22.7 ± 1.4 and 22.2 ± 1.3 %. However, lean body mass of experimental and control subjects did not change at 64.3 ± 1.3 versus 66.1 ± 1.3 kg and 65.5 ± 0.8 versus 64.7 ± 0.8 kg, respectively. In terms of body mass index and waist to hip ratio, neither the experimental nor the control group showed any significant change. Respective values for the waist to hip ratio and body mass index (pre and post) were as follows: 1 ± 0.1 vs 0.9 ± 0.1 (experimental) and 0.9 ± 0.1 versus 0.9 ± 0.1 (controls) while for BMI they were 29 ± 1.4 versus 29 ± 1.2 (experimental) and 26 ± 0.7 vs. 26 ± 0.7 (controls). CARDIORESPIRATORY FITNESS: In the experimental group, predicted values for absolute V02 Max increased by 10 ± 3% (i.e. 3.3 ± 0.1 to 3.6 ± 0.1 liters min -1 while that of control subjects did not change (3.4 ± 0.2 and 3.4 ± 0.2 liters min-I). In terms of relative values for V02 Max, the experimental group increased by 11 ± 2% (37 ± 1.4 to 41 ± 1.4 ml kg-l min-I) while that of control subjects did not change (41 ± 1.4 and 40 ± 1.4 ml kg-l min-I). BLOOD LIPIDS: Compared to pre-test values, post-test values for HDL were decreased by 14 ± 5 % in the experiment group (from 52.4 ± 4.4 to 45.2 ± 4.3 mg dl-l) while HDL data for the control group was unchanged (49.7 ± 3.6 and 48.3 ± 4.1 mg dl-l, respectively. On the other hand, LDL levels did not change for either the experimental or control group (110.2 ± 10.4 versus 112.3 ± 7.1 mg dl-1 and 106.1 ± 11.3 versus 127 ± 15.1 mg dl-1, respectively). Further, total cholesterol did not change in either the experimental or control group (181.3 ± 8.7 mg dl-1 versus 178.7± 4.9 mg dl-l) and 190.7 ± 12.2 versus 197.1 ± 16.1 mg dl-1, respectively). Similarly, the ratio of TC/HDL did not change for either the experimental or control group (3.8 ± 0.4 versus 4.5 ± 0.5 and 4 ± 0.4 versus 4.2 ± 0.4, respectively). Blood triglyceride levels were also not altered in either the experimental or control group (100.3 ± 19.6 versus 114.8 ± 15.3 mg dl-1 and 140 ± 23.5 versus 137.3 ± 17.9 mg dl-l, respectively). BLOOD GLUCOSE: Fasted blood glucose levels did not change in either the experimental or control group. Pre- and post-values for experimental and control groups were 92.5 ± 4.8 versus 93.3 ± 4.3 mg dl-l and 92.3 ± 11.3 versus 93.2 ± 2.6 mg dl-1 , respectively. BLOOD PRESSURE: No aspect of blood pressure was altered in either the experimental or control group. For example, pre- and post-test systolic blood pressures were 131 ± 2 versus 129 ± 2 mmHg (experimental) and 123 ± 2 and 125 ± 2 mmHg (controls), respectively. Pre- and post-test diastolic blood pressures were 84 ± 2 and 83 ± 2 mmHg (experimental) and 81 ± 1 versus 82 ± 1 mmHg, respectively. Similarly, calculated pulse pressure was not altered in the experimental or control as pre- and post-test values were 47 ± 1 versus 47 ± 2 mmlHg and 42 ± 2 versus 43 ± 2 mmHg, respectively. FRAMINGHAM POINT SCORE: The concerted changes reported above produced an increased risk in the Framingham Point Score for the subjects in the experimental group. For example, the pre- and post-test FPS increased from 1.4 ± 0.9 to 2.7 ± 0.7. On the other hand, pre- and post-test scores for the control group were 1.8 ± 1 versus 1.8 ± 0.9. Conclusions: Our data confirms previous studies showing that interval-type exercise is a useful intervention for increasing aerobic fitness. Moreover, the increase in V02 Max we found in response to limited participation in ball hockey (i.e. 16 games) suggests that recreational sport may help reduce this aspect of coronary risk in previously sedentary individual. On the other hand, our results showing little or no positive change in body composition, blood lipids or blood pressures suggest that one season of recreational sport in not in of itself a powerful enough stimulus to reduce the overall risk of coronary artery disease. In light of this, it is recommended that, in addition to participation in recreational sport, the performance of regular physical activity is used as an adjunct to provide a more powerful overall stimulus for decreasing coronary risk factors. LIMITATIONS: The increase in the FPS we found for the experimental group, indicative of an increased risk for coronary disease, was largely due to the large decrease in HDL we observed after compared to above one season of ball hockey. In light of the fact that cardiorespiratory fitness was increased and % body fat was decreased, as well as the fact that other parameters such as blood pressure showed positive (but non statistically significant) trends, the possibility that the decrease in HDL showed by our data was anomalous should be considered. FUTURE DIRECTIONS: The results of this study suggesting that recreational sport may be a potentially useful intervention in the reduction of CAD require to be corroborated by future studies specifically employing 1) more rigorous assessment of fitness and fitness change and 2) more prolonged or frequent participants.

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Dans cette thèse, nous étudions quelques problèmes fondamentaux en mathématiques financières et actuarielles, ainsi que leurs applications. Cette thèse est constituée de trois contributions portant principalement sur la théorie de la mesure de risques, le problème de l’allocation du capital et la théorie des fluctuations. Dans le chapitre 2, nous construisons de nouvelles mesures de risque cohérentes et étudions l’allocation de capital dans le cadre de la théorie des risques collectifs. Pour ce faire, nous introduisons la famille des "mesures de risque entropique cumulatifs" (Cumulative Entropic Risk Measures). Le chapitre 3 étudie le problème du portefeuille optimal pour le Entropic Value at Risk dans le cas où les rendements sont modélisés par un processus de diffusion à sauts (Jump-Diffusion). Dans le chapitre 4, nous généralisons la notion de "statistiques naturelles de risque" (natural risk statistics) au cadre multivarié. Cette extension non-triviale produit des mesures de risque multivariées construites à partir des données financiéres et de données d’assurance. Le chapitre 5 introduit les concepts de "drawdown" et de la "vitesse d’épuisement" (speed of depletion) dans la théorie de la ruine. Nous étudions ces concepts pour des modeles de risque décrits par une famille de processus de Lévy spectrallement négatifs.

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La documentation scientifique fait état de la présence, chez l’adulte, de cellules souches et progénitrices neurales (CSPN) endogènes dans les zones sous-ventriculaire et sous-granulaire du cerveau ainsi que dans le gyrus denté de l’hippocampe. De plus, un postulat selon lequel il serait également possible de retrouver ce type de cellules dans la moelle épinière et le néocortex des mammifères adultes a été énoncé. L’encéphalopathie de Wernicke, un trouble neurologique grave toutefois réversible qui entraîne un dysfonctionnement, voire une défaillance du cerveau, est causée principalement par une carence importante en thiamine (CT). Des observations récentes laissent envisager que les facteurs en cause dans la prolifération et la différenciation des CSPN pourraient également jouer un rôle important lors d’un épisode de CT. L’hypothèse, selon laquelle l’identification de nouveaux métabolites entrant dans le mécanisme ou la séquence de réactions se soldant en une CT pourraient en faciliter la compréhension, a été émise au moyen d'une démarche en cours permettant d’établir le profil des modifications métaboliques qui surviennent en de telles situations. Cette approche a été utilisée pour constater les changements métaboliques survenus au niveau du foyer cérébral dans un modèle de rats déficients en thiamine (rats DT), particulièrement au niveau du thalamus et du colliculus inférieur (CI). La greffe de CSPN a quant à elle été envisagée afin d’apporter de nouvelles informations sur la participation des CSPN lors d’un épisode de CT et de déterminer les bénéfices thérapeutiques potentiels offerts par cette intervention. Les sujets de l’étude étaient répartis en quatre groupes expérimentaux : un premier groupe constitué de rats dont la CT était induite par la pyrithiamine (rats DTiP), un deuxième groupe constitué de rats-contrôles nourris ensemble (« pair-fed control rats » ou rats PFC) ainsi que deux groupes de rats ayant subi une greffe de CSPN, soit un groupe de rats DTiP greffés et un dernier groupe constitué de rats-contrôles (rats PFC) greffés. Les échantillons de foyers cérébraux (thalamus et CI) des quatre groupes de rats ont été prélevés et soumis à des analyses métabolomiques non ciblées ainsi qu’à une analyse visuelle par microscopie à balayage électronique (SEM). Une variété de métabolites-clés a été observée chez les groupes de rats déficients en thiamine (rats DTiP) en plus de plusieurs métabolites dont la documentation ne faisait pas mention. On a notamment constaté la présence d’acides biliaires, d’acide cynurénique et d’acide 1,9— diméthylurique dans le thalamus, alors que la présence de taurine et de carnosine a été observée dans le colliculus inférieur. L’étude a de plus démontré une possible implication des CSPN endogènes dans les foyers cérébraux du thalamus et du colliculus inférieur en identifiant les métabolites-clés ciblant les CSPN. Enfin, les analyses par SEM ont montré une amélioration notable des tissus à la suite de la greffe de CSPN. Ces constatations suggèrent que l’utilisation de CSPN pourrait s’avérer une avenue thérapeutique intéressante pour soulager la dégénérescence symptomatique liée à une grave carence en thiamine chez l’humain.

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In der funktionellen Proteomforschung werden bekannte Interaktionen eines zellulären Netzwerkes qualitativ untersucht. Diese Veröffentlichung beschreibt verschiedene biomolekulare Interaktionsanalysen, anhand des Modellsystems PKA, die zur detaillierten Charakterisierung von Bindungen herangezogen werden können. Neben den Gleichgewichtsbindungsdaten (generiert aus AlphaScreen, FP, SPR und ITC Messungen) wurden aus ITC Messungen die thermodynamischen Parameter G, H und S ermittelt. Durch Anwendung der BRET2 (Bioluminescence resonance energy transfer) Methode konnten in lebenden Zellen Aussagen über Bindungsereignisse und deren Lokalisation getroffen werden.

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Traditional inventory models focus on risk-neutral decision makers, i.e., characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit, or equivalently, minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon. In this paper, we propose a framework for incorporating risk aversion in multi-period inventory models as well as multi-period models that coordinate inventory and pricing strategies. In each case, we characterize the optimal policy for various measures of risk that have been commonly used in the finance literature. In particular, we show that the structure of the optimal policy for a decision maker with exponential utility functions is almost identical to the structure of the optimal risk-neutral inventory (and pricing) policies. Computational results demonstrate the importance of this approach not only to risk-averse decision makers, but also to risk-neutral decision makers with limited information on the demand distribution.

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Compositional data naturally arises from the scientific analysis of the chemical composition of archaeological material such as ceramic and glass artefacts. Data of this type can be explored using a variety of techniques, from standard multivariate methods such as principal components analysis and cluster analysis, to methods based upon the use of log-ratios. The general aim is to identify groups of chemically similar artefacts that could potentially be used to answer questions of provenance. This paper will demonstrate work in progress on the development of a documented library of methods, implemented using the statistical package R, for the analysis of compositional data. R is an open source package that makes available very powerful statistical facilities at no cost. We aim to show how, with the aid of statistical software such as R, traditional exploratory multivariate analysis can easily be used alongside, or in combination with, specialist techniques of compositional data analysis. The library has been developed from a core of basic R functionality, together with purpose-written routines arising from our own research (for example that reported at CoDaWork'03). In addition, we have included other appropriate publicly available techniques and libraries that have been implemented in R by other authors. Available functions range from standard multivariate techniques through to various approaches to log-ratio analysis and zero replacement. We also discuss and demonstrate a small selection of relatively new techniques that have hitherto been little-used in archaeometric applications involving compositional data. The application of the library to the analysis of data arising in archaeometry will be demonstrated; results from different analyses will be compared; and the utility of the various methods discussed

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We shall call an n × p data matrix fully-compositional if the rows sum to a constant, and sub-compositional if the variables are a subset of a fully-compositional data set1. Such data occur widely in archaeometry, where it is common to determine the chemical composition of ceramic, glass, metal or other artefacts using techniques such as neutron activation analysis (NAA), inductively coupled plasma spectroscopy (ICPS), X-ray fluorescence analysis (XRF) etc. Interest often centres on whether there are distinct chemical groups within the data and whether, for example, these can be associated with different origins or manufacturing technologies

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There are two principal chemical concepts that are important for studying the natural environment. The first one is thermodynamics, which describes whether a system is at equilibrium or can spontaneously change by chemical reactions. The second main concept is how fast chemical reactions (kinetics or rate of chemical change) take place whenever they start. In this work we examine a natural system in which both thermodynamics and kinetic factors are important in determining the abundance of NH+4 , NO−2 and NO−3 in superficial waters. Samples were collected in the Arno Basin (Tuscany, Italy), a system in which natural and antrophic effects both contribute to highly modify the chemical composition of water. Thermodynamical modelling based on the reduction-oxidation reactions involving the passage NH+4 -> NO−2 -> NO−3 in equilibrium conditions has allowed to determine the Eh redox potential values able to characterise the state of each sample and, consequently, of the fluid environment from which it was drawn. Just as pH expresses the concentration of H+ in solution, redox potential is used to express the tendency of an environment to receive or supply electrons. In this context, oxic environments, as those of river systems, are said to have a high redox potential because O2 is available as an electron acceptor. Principles of thermodynamics and chemical kinetics allow to obtain a model that often does not completely describe the reality of natural systems. Chemical reactions may indeed fail to achieve equilibrium because the products escape from the site of the rection or because reactions involving the trasformation are very slow, so that non-equilibrium conditions exist for long periods. Moreover, reaction rates can be sensitive to poorly understood catalytic effects or to surface effects, while variables as concentration (a large number of chemical species can coexist and interact concurrently), temperature and pressure can have large gradients in natural systems. By taking into account this, data of 91 water samples have been modelled by using statistical methodologies for compositional data. The application of log–contrast analysis has allowed to obtain statistical parameters to be correlated with the calculated Eh values. In this way, natural conditions in which chemical equilibrium is hypothesised, as well as underlying fast reactions, are compared with those described by a stochastic approach

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La historia del análisis del comportamiento en Brasil comenzó con la visita de Fred S. Keller a la Universidad de São Paulo en 1961, cuando él era un académico de la Fundación Fullbright; en aquella época, Keller presentó los trabajos de Skinner a los psicólogos brasileños. Su primer asistente fue Carolina Martuscelli Bori, en aquel entonces una psicóloga social influenciada por el trabajo de Kurt Lewin. Orientada inicialmente por Keller, Carolina Bori fue la principal fuerza de difusión del análisis del comportamiento en Brasil, comenzando con el curso de psicología en la Universidad de Brasilia, en el cual, durante agosto de 1964, se dictó el primer curso de Análisis Experimental de la Conducta. La mayoría de los analistas del comportamiento de hoy en día fueron directa o indirectamente estudiantes de Carolina Bori. Actualmente varios programas de psicología en el país ofrecen cursos de análisis del comportamiento

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Integral leadership is an application of Wilber’s integral model, which acknowledged the interior, exterior, individual and collective dimensions that are present in all the circumstances of the life and that determine the way of conceiving, interpreting and carrying out the leaders’ actions. The present article exposes how the integral leader is understood from the point of view of the different dimensions and his interrelationships. It includes quadrants, levels, states, lines of development and types, characteristics the integral leader must have in his or her role inside the organization and the practices of transformation that the leader can use to become an integral leader.