The impact of hurricane Ivan in the Cayman Islands

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Jamaica

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Jamaica to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Jamaica. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The outcomes from investigating the agriculture sector indicate that for the sugar-cane subsector the harvests under both the A2 and B2 scenarios decrease at first and then increase as the mid-century mark is approached. With respect to the yam subsector the results indicate that the yield of yam will increase from 17.4 to 23.1 tonnes per hectare (33%) under the A2 scenario, and 18.4 to 23.9 (30%) tonnes per hectare under the B2 scenario over the period 2011 to 2050. Similar to the forecasts for yam, the results for escallion suggest that yields will continue to increase to mid-century. Adaptation in the sugar cane sub-sector could involve replanting and irrigation that appear to generate net benefits at the three selected discount rates for the A2 scenario, but only at a discount rate of 1% for the B2 scenario. For yam and escallion, investment in irrigation will earn significant net benefits for both the A2 and B2 scenarios at the three selected rates of discount. It is recommended that if adaptation strategies are part of a package of strategies for improving efficiency and hence enhancing competitiveness, then the yields of each crop can be raised sufficiently to warrant investment in adaptation to climate change. The analysis of the health sector demonstrates the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the future health systems in Jamaica, something that that will only compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. The results clearly show that the incidence of dengue fever will increase if climate change continues unabated, with more cases projected for the A2 scenario than the B2. The models predicted a decrease in the incidence of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis with climate change, indicating that Jamaica will benefit from climate change with a reduction in the number of cases of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis. Due to the long time horizon anticipated for climate change, Jamaica should start implementing adaptation strategies focused on the health sector by promoting an enabling environment, strengthening communities, strengthening the monitoring, surveillance and response systems and integrating adaptation into development plans and actions. Small-island developing states like Jamaica must be proactive in implementing adaptation strategies, which will reduce the risk of climate change. On the global stage the country must continue to agitate for the implementation of the mitigation strategies for developed countries as outlined in the Kyoto protocol. The results regarding the tourism sector suggest that the sector is likely to incur losses due to climate change, the most significant of which is under the A2 scenario. Climatic features, such as temperature and precipitation, will affect the demand for tourism in Jamaica. By 2050 the industry is expected to lose US$ 132.2 million and 106.1 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In addition to changes in the climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects from extreme events and acidification of the ocean. The expected loss from extreme events is projected to be approximately US$ 5.48 billion (A2) and US$ 4.71 billion (B2). Even more devastating is the effect of ocean acidification on the tourism sector. The analysis shows that US$ 7.95 billion (A2) and US$ 7.04 billion is expected to be lost by mid-century. The benefit-cost analysis indicates that most of the adaptation strategies are expected to produce negative net benefits, and it is highly likely that the cost burden would have to be carried by the state. The options that generated positive ratios were: redesigning and retrofitting all relevant tourism facilities, restoring corals and educating the public and developing rescue and evacuation plans. Given the relative importance of tourism to the macroeconomy one possible option is to seek assistance from multilateral funding agencies. It is recommended that the government first undertake a detailed analysis of the vulnerability of each sector and, in particular tourism, to climate change. Further, more realistic socio-economic scenarios should be developed so as to inform future benefit-cost analysis.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Bahamas

The Bahamas is at great risk and vulnerability given its geographical features as a low-lying, sea encircled country. If projected sea level rise is reached by 2050, between 10-12% of territory will be lost, especially in coastal zones where the main tourism assets are located. Vulnerability could also be manifested if flight carbon emission taxes are established in the main source markets, representing an economic threat to the tourism sector for the islands. The impact of climate change on main tourism demand variables will cause some losses to the country‟s income and government revenues. This would be acting conjointly with some local threats to tourism assets and trends in future global tourism demand. The second and no less important threat is tropical cyclones, which may be associated with raising sea level. Estimations posited the amount of losses in excess of 2400 million US$ for the four decades under examination. It is to be pointed out that there is still a lack of comparatively accurate data collection and analysis on this subject, a point deserving more attention in order to deepen the understanding of, and to extract better lessons from these extreme events. In the same period, total estimated impacts of progressive climate change are between 17 and 19 billions of B$ with estimated discount rates applied. The Bahamas is a Small Island Developing State with low growth on GHG emissions (second in Latin America), as well as a relative short capacity to lower emissions in the future. The country has a relative delay in the application of renewable energy systems, a solution that, provided documented studies on-site, might turn out to be fundamental in the country‟s efforts to establish mitigation related policies. The Bahamas currently has institutions and organizations that deal with climate change-related issues and an important number of measures and courses of action have been set up by the government. Nevertheless, more coordination among them is needed and should include international institutions. This coordination is essential even for the first steps, i.e. to conduct studies with a bottom-up approach in order to draw more accurate programs on adaptation and mitigation. It is fundamental for tourism to keep track of potential losses in tourist attractions (and to act accordingly), related to correspondent losses in biodiversity, water resources and coastal erosion. Also, actions to fight climate change impacts might improve the islands security standards, quality of living and protect cultural and heritage assets. These elements may definitely shape the future of the country‟s competitiveness as a tourism destination. It is possible and necessary to decide about the options with good cost-benefit ratio and reasonable payback periods, notwithstanding that cost-benefit analysis requires more refined and accurate data to provide precise and locally adapted options.

An Assessment Of The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On The Transportation Sector In Montserrat

.--I. Introduction.--II. Literature review regarding climate change impacts on international transportation.--III. Economy of the Caribbean subregion and Monserrat.--IV. The international transportaion system in the Caribbean and in Monserrat.--V. Vulnerabilities of international transport system in Monserrat to climate change.--VI. Modelling.-- VII. Economic impact analysis of climate chage on the international transport.-- VIII. Approaches to mitigation and adaptation in the air and sea transportation sectors.-- IX. Conclusions

Disaster risk reduction in the education sector among selected Caribbean small island developing states

Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS), by their very nature, are vulnerable to external shocks. Research shows that the Caribbean subregion experienced 165 natural disasters between 1990 and 2008 and the total impact of natural disasters on the subregion was estimated at US$136 billion. The impact on the social sectors was estimated at US$57 billion, or 42% of the total effect. As small open economies, the Caribbean SIDS are also vulnerable to the vagaries of the international economic system and have experienced declines in tourism, merchandise exports receipts, remittances and capital flows throughout the financial crisis. The negative impact of natural hazards exacerbates the capacity of Caribbean SIDS to overcome the development challenges, such as those posed by the current global economic and financial crisis. Disaster risk reduction (DRR), therefore, is of critical concern to subregional governments and their people. For the purpose of this study, six Caribbean SIDS were selected for detailed analyses on the macro socio-economic impact of extreme events to the education sector. They are the Cayman Islands, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, and Montserrat. This paper proposes that better integration of DRR in the education sector cannot be easily achieved if policymakers do not recognize the social nature of risk perception and acceptance in Caribbean SIDS, which necessitates that risk reduction be treated as a negotiated process which engages all stakeholders.

Preschool children and excess weight: the impact of a low complexity intervention in public day care centers

Introduction: childhood obesity is a major public health problem, affecting children even at early ages. Objective: to assess the impact of dietary intervention and relatively simple physical activity on the nutritional state of preschoolers. Method: this was an intervention study in public daycare centers targeting children from 2 to 4 years of age, in the State of São Paulo. The sample consisted of 9 daycare centers covering 578 children, with 264 children in the intervention group (IG) and 314 in the comparison group (CG). Intervention was focused on modifications in diet and physical activity, avoiding overloading the routine of daycare centers, for duration of one year. A zBMI score > 1 (zBMI) and < 2 was considered risk of being overweight, and > 2 zBMI was considered excess weight (overweight and obese). Analysis was done by frequency calculations, comparisons of proportions by χ2, mean comparisons by t-student and calculations according to Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Results: IG showed an inverse correlation between the initial zBMI of the children and the difference with the zBMI at the end of the intervention (rP = -0.39, p <0.0001). The mean difference of zBMI of the overweight children in IG between the beginning and the end of the study period was negative (-0.46 z score), indicating weight reduction, while the children in the CG was positive (+0. 17 z score) (p = 0.0037). Conclusion: intervention in diet and physical activity in overweight preschool children in daycare centers could have a favorable impact on the evolution of their nutritional state.

Impact of gestational diabetes and lactational insulin replacement on structure and secretory function of offspring rat ventral prostate

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk factors for facial melasma in women: a case-control study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk factors for the acquisition of imipenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii in a burn unit: An appraisal of the effect of colonization pressure

Imipenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (IRAB) is a major threat for critically ill patients, including those admitted to burn units. Recent studies have suggested that colonization pressure (the proportion of patients or patient-days harbouring the pathogen of interest) is an important driver of the risk for acquisition of multidrug-resistant organisms. With that in mind, we conducted a cohort study, enrolling 208 patients admitted to a burn unit from November 2008 through December 2009. The outcome of interest was the acquisition of IRAB. In addition to the usual risk factors, we assessed the impact of colonization pressure. The number of wound excisions (odds ratio (OR) 12.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.82-51.64) and the number of antimicrobials used (OR 22.82, 95% CI 5.15-101.19) were significant risk factors for the outcome of interest. On the other hand, colonization pressure (measured for whole time of exposure or up to the last 14, 7, or 3 days) was not associated with the risk for IRAB acquisition.

Impact of patient training patterns on peritonitis rates in a large national cohort study

Background. Ideal training methods that could ensure best peritoneal dialysis (PD) outcome have not been defined in previous reports. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of training characteristics on peritonitis rates in a large Brazilian cohort.Methods. Incident patients with valid data on training recruited in the Brazilian Peritoneal Dialysis Multicenter Study (BRAZPD II) from January 2008 to January 2011 were included. Peritonitis was diagnosed according to International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis guidelines; incidence rate of peritonitis (episodes/patient-months) and time to the first peritonitis were used as end points.Results. Two thousand two hundred and forty-three adult patients were included in the analysis: 59 +/- 16 years old, 51.8% female, 64.7% with <= 4 years of education. The median training time was 15 h (IQI 10-20 h). Patients were followed for a median of 11.2 months (range 3-36.5). The overall peritonitis rate was 0.29 per year at risk (1 episode/41 patient-months). The mean number of hours of training per day was 1.8 +/- 2.4. Less than 1 h of training/day was associated with higher incidence rate when compared with the intervals of 1-2 h/day (P = 0.03) and > 2 h/day (P = 0.02). Patients who received a cumulative training of > 15 h had significantly lower incidence of peritonitis compared with < 15 h (0.26 per year at risk versus 0.32 per year at risk, P = 0.01). The presence of a caregiver and the number of people trained were not significantly associated with peritonitis incidence rate. Training in the immediate 10 days after implantation of the catheter was associated with the highest peritonitis rate (0.32 per year), compared with training prior to catheter implantation (0.28 per year) or > 10 days after implantation (0.23 per year). More experienced centers had a lower risk for the first peritonitis (P = 0.003).Conclusions. This is the first study to analyze the association between training characteristics and outcomes in a large cohort of PD patients. Low training time (particularly < 15 h), smaller center size and the timing of training in relation to catheter implantation were associated with a higher incidence of peritonitis. These results support the recommendation of a minimum amount of training hours to reduce peritonitis incidence regardless of the number of hours trained per day.

Response to Chemotherapy in Overweight/Obese Patients With Low-Risk Gestational Trophoblastic Neoplasia

Objective Despite rising global obesity rates, the impact of obesity on gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) remains uninvestigated. This study aimed at investigating whether overweight/obesity relates to response to chemotherapy in low-risk GTN patients.Methods This nonconcurrent cohort study included 300 patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics-defined postmolar low-risk GTN treated with a single-agent chemotherapymethotrexate or actinomycin-D (actD)between 1973 and 2012 at the New England Trophoblastic Disease Center. Chemotherapy dosing was based on actual body weight regardless of obesity status, except for 5-day courses or pulse regimens of actD. Patients were classified as overweight/obese (body mass index [BMI] 25 kg/m(2)) or non-overweight/obese (BMI <25 kg/m(2)). Information on patient characteristics and response to chemotherapy (need for second-line chemotherapy, reason for changing to an alternative chemotherapy, number of cycles, need for combination chemotherapy, and time to human chorionic gonadotropin remission) was obtained.Results Of 300 low-risk GTN patients, 81 (27%) were overweight/obese. Overweight/obese patients were older than the non-overweight/obese patients (median age: 30 vs 28 years, P = 0.004). First-line therapy using actD was more frequent in overweight/obese patients (6.2% vs 1.4%, P = 0.036). Resistance and toxicity were similar between groups. No significant difference in the number of chemotherapy cycles needed for remission or time required to achieve remission was found between groups.Conclusions No association between overweight/obesity and low-risk GTN outcomes was found. Current chemotherapy dosing using BMI seems to be appropriate for overweight/obese patients with low-risk GTN.

Impact of educational interventions on adverse drug events reporting

Spontaneous adverse drug events (ADE) reporting is the main source of data for assessing the risk/benefit of drugs available in the pharmaceutical market. However, its major limitation is underreporting, which hinders and delays the signal detection by Pharmacovigilance (PhV). To identify the techniques of educational intervention (EI) for promotion of PhV by health professionals and to assess their impact. A systematic review was performed in the PUBMED, PAHO, LILACS and EMBASE databases, from November/2011 to January/2012, updated in March/2013. The strategy search included the use of health descriptors and a manual search in the references cited by selected papers. 101 articles were identified, of which 16 met the inclusion criteria. Most of these studies (10) were conducted in European hospitals and physicians were the health professionals subjected to most EI (12), these studies lasted from one month to two years. EI with multifaceted techniques raised the absolute number, the rate of reporting related to adverse drug reactions (ADR), technical defects of health technologies, and also promoted an improvement in the quality of reports, since there was increased reporting of ADR classified as serious, unexpected, related to new drugs and with high degree of causality. Multifaceted educational interventions for multidisciplinary health teams working at all healthcare levels, with sufficient duration to reach all professionals who act in the institution, including issues related to medication errors and therapeutic ineffectiveness, must be validated, with the aim of standardizing the Good Practice of PhV and improve drug safety indicators.

Prevalence and possible risk factors of peri-implantitis: a concept review

The purpose of this review is to estimate the prevalence of peri-implantitis, as well as to determine possible risk factors associated with its development in patients treated with oral implants. Although implant therapy has been identified as a successful and predictable treatment for partially and fully edentulous patients, complications and failures can occur. Peri-implantitis is considered a biologic complication that results in bone loss around implants and may lead to implant treatment failure. A great variation has been observed in the literature regarding the prevalence of peri-implantitis according to the diagnostic criteria used to define peri-implantitis. The prevalence ranges from 4.7 to 43% at implant level, and from 8.9 to > 56% at patient level. Many risk factors that may lead to the establishment and progression of peri-implantitis have been suggested. There is strong evidence that presence and history of periodontitis are potential risk factors for peri-implantitis. Cigarette smoking has not yet been conclusively established as a risk factor for peri-implantitis, although extra care should be taken with dental implant in smokers. Other risk factors, such as diabetes, genetic traits, implant surface roughness and presence of keratinized mucosa still require further investigation. Peri-implantitis is not an uncommon complication following implant therapy. A higher prevalence of peri-implantitis has been identified for patients with presence or history of periodontal disease and for smokers. Until now, a true risk factor for peri-implantitis has not been established. Supportive maintenance program is essential for the long-term success of treatments with oral implants. The knowledge of the real impact of peri-implantitis on the outcome of treatments with oral implants as well as the identification of risk factors associated to this inflammatory condition are essential for the development of supportive maintenance programs and the establishment of prevention protocols.

Reducing the Public Health Impact of Bovine Tuberculosis by Controlling Disease Transmission Between Cattle and White-Tailed Deer in Northwestern Minnesota

Bovine tuberculosis, caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis, is a re-emerging zoonotic disease. It has staged a comeback by establishing infections in wildlife and cattle, creating the potential for human disease in locations where it was thought to be under control. In northwestern Minnesota, infected cattle and white-tailed deer were first discovered in 2005. A major bovine tuberculosis eradication campaign is underway in the state, with multiple efforts employed to control M. bovis infection in both cattle and deer populations. In order to effectively eradicate bovine tuberculosis in Minnesota, there is a need for better understanding of the factors that increase the risk of deer and cattle interacting in a way that facilitates tuberculosis transmission. By reducing the risk of disease transmission within the animal populations, we will also reduce the risk that bovine tuberculosis will again become a common disease in human populations. The purpose of this study is to characterize the risk of interactions between cattle and white-tailed deer in northern Minnesota in order to prevent M. bovis transmission. A survey originally developed to assess deer-cattle interactions in Michigan was modified for use in Minnesota, introducing a scoring method to evaluate the areas of highest priority at risk of potential deer-cattle interaction. The resulting semi-quantitative deer-cattle interaction risk assessment was used at 53 cattle herds located in the region adjacent to the bovine tuberculosis “Core Area”. Two evaluators each scored the farm separately, and then created a management plan for the farm that prioritized the areas of greatest risk for deer-cattle interactions. Herds located within the “Management Zone” were evaluated by Minnesota Board of Animal Health staff, and results from these surveys were used as a point of comparison.