Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

ANOVA kernels and RKHS of zero mean functions for model-based sensitivity analysis

Given a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (H,〈.,.〉)(H,〈.,.〉) of real-valued functions and a suitable measure μμ over the source space D⊂RD⊂R, we decompose HH as the sum of a subspace of centered functions for μμ and its orthogonal in HH. This decomposition leads to a special case of ANOVA kernels, for which the functional ANOVA representation of the best predictor can be elegantly derived, either in an interpolation or regularization framework. The proposed kernels appear to be particularly convenient for analyzing the effect of each (group of) variable(s) and computing sensitivity indices without recursivity.

Clinical outcomes after zotarolimus and everolimus drug eluting stent implantation in coronary artery bifurcation lesions: insights from the RESOLUTE All Comers Trial

OBJECTIVE We investigated clinical outcomes after treatment of coronary bifurcation lesions with second generation drug eluting stents (DES). DESIGN Post hoc analysis of a randomised, multicentre, non-inferiority trial. SETTING Multicentre study. PATIENTS All comers study with minimal exclusion criteria. INTERVENTIONS Patients were treated with either zotarolimus or everolimus eluting stents. The patient population was divided according to treatment of bifurcation or non-bifurcation lesions and clinical outcomes were compared between groups. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES Clinical outcomes within 2-year follow-up. RESULTS A total of 2265 patients were included in the present analysis. Two-year follow-up data were available in 2223 patients: 1838 patients in the non-bifurcation group and 385 patients in the bifurcation group. At 2-year follow-up the bifurcation and the non-bifurcation lesion groups showed no significant differences in terms of cardiac death (2.3 vs 2.1, p=0.273), target lesion failure (9.7% vs 13.8%, p=0.255), major adverse cardiac events (11.5% vs 15.1%, p=0.305), target lesion revascularisation (4.7% vs 6.0%, p=0.569), and definite or probable stent thrombosis (1.6% vs 1.8%, p=0.419). CONCLUSIONS The use of second generation DES for the treatment of coronary bifurcation lesions was associated with similar long term mortality and clinical outcomes compared with non-bifurcation lesions.

NLO thermal dilepton rate at non-zero momentum

The vector channel spectral function and the dilepton production rate from a QCD plasma at a temperature above a few hundred MeV are evaluated up to next-to-leading order (NLO) including their dependence on a non-zero momentum with respect to the heat bath. The invariant mass of the virtual photon is taken to be in the range K2 ~ (πT)2 ~ (1GeV)2, generalizing previous NLO results valid for K2 ≫ (πT)2. In the opposite regime 0 < K2 ≪ (πT)2 the loop expansion breaks down, but agrees nevertheless in order of magnitude with a previous result obtained through resummations. Ways to test the vector spectral function through comparisons with imaginary-time correlators measured on the lattice are discussed.

A papain-induced disc degeneration model for the assessment of thermo-reversible hydrogel-cells therapeutic approach

Nucleus pulposus (NP) regeneration by the application of injectable cell-embedded hydrogels is an appealing approach for tissue engineering. We investigated a thermo-reversible hydrogel (TR-HG), based on a modified polysaccharide with a thermo-reversible polyamide [poly(N-isopropylacrylamide), pNIPAM], which is made to behave as a liquid at room temperature and hardens at > 32 °C. In order to test the hydrogel, a papain-induced bovine caudal disc degeneration model (PDDM), creating a cavity in the NP, was employed. Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) or autologous bovine NP cells (bNPCs) were seeded in TR-HG; hMSCs were additionally preconditioned with rhGDF-5 for 7 days. Then, TR-HG was reversed to a fluid and the cell suspension injected into the PDDM and kept under static loading for 7 days. Experimental design was: (D1) fresh disc control + PBS injection; (D2) PDDM + PBS injection; (D3) PDDM + TR-HG (material control); (D4) PDDM + TR-HG + bNPCs; (D5) PDDM + TR-HG + hMSCs. Magnetic resonance imaging performed before and after loading, on days 9 and 16, allowed imaging of the hydrogel-filled PDDM and assessment of disc height and volume changes. In gel-injected discs the NP region showed a major drop in volume and disc height during culture under static load. The RT–PCR results of injected hMSCs showed significant upregulation of ACAN, COL2A1, VCAN and SOX9 during culture in the disc cavity, whereas the gene expression profile of NP cells remained unchanged. The cell viability of injected cells (NPCs or hMSCs) was maintained at over 86% in 3D culture and dropped to ~72% after organ culture. Our results underline the need for load-bearing hydrogels that are also cyto-compatible.

Dynamics of a minimal model of interlocked positive and negative feedback loops of transcriptional regulation by cAMP-response element binding proteins.

cAMP-response element binding (CREB) proteins are involved in transcriptional regulation in a number of cellular processes (e.g., neural plasticity and circadian rhythms). The CREB family contains activators and repressors that may interact through positive and negative feedback loops. These loops can be generated by auto- and cross-regulation of expression of CREB proteins, via CRE elements in or near their genes. Experiments suggest that such feedback loops may operate in several systems (e.g., Aplysia and rat). To understand the functional implications of such feedback loops, which are interlocked via cross-regulation of transcription, a minimal model with a positive and negative loop was developed and investigated using bifurcation analysis. Bifurcation analysis revealed diverse nonlinear dynamics (e.g., bistability and oscillations). The stability of steady states or oscillations could be changed by time delays in the synthesis of the activator (CREB1) or the repressor (CREB2). Investigation of stochastic fluctuations due to small numbers of molecules of CREB1 and CREB2 revealed a bimodal distribution of CREB molecules in the bistability region. The robustness of the stable HIGH and LOW states of CREB expression to stochastic noise differs, and a critical number of molecules was required to sustain the HIGH state for days or longer. Increasing positive feedback or decreasing negative feedback also increased the lifetime of the HIGH state, and persistence of this state may correlate with long-term memory formation. A critical number of molecules was also required to sustain robust oscillations of CREB expression. If a steady state was near a deterministic Hopf bifurcation point, stochastic resonance could induce oscillations. This comparative analysis of deterministic and stochastic dynamics not only provides insights into the possible dynamics of CREB regulatory motifs, but also demonstrates a framework for understanding other regulatory processes with similar network architecture.

Specific, Reversible Cytostatic Protection of Normal Cells Against Negative Effects of Chemotherapy

Chemotherapy is a common and effective method to treat many forms of cancer. However, treatment of cancer with chemotherapy has severe side effects which often limit the doses of therapy administered. Because some cancer chemotherapeutics target proliferating cells and tissues, all dividing cells, whether normal or tumor, are affected. Cell culture studies have demonstrated that UCN-01 is able to reversibly and selectively arrest normal dividing cells; tumor cells lines do not undergo this temporary arrest. Following UCN-01 treatment, normal cells displayed a 50-fold increase in IC50 for camptothecin; tumor cells showed no such increased tolerance. We have examined the response of the proliferating tissues of the mouse to UCN- 01 treatment, using the small bowel epithelium as a model system. Our results indicate that UCN-01 treatment can cause a cell cycle arrest in the gut epithelium, beginning 24 hours following UCN-01 administration, with cell proliferation remaining suppressed for one week. Two weeks post-UCN-01 treatment the rate of proliferation returns to normal levels. 5-FU administered during this period demonstrates that UCN-01 is able to provide protection to normal cells of the mouse within a narrow window of efficacy, from three to five days post-UCN-01. UCN-01 pretreated mice displayed improved survival, weight status and blood markers following 5-FU compared to control mice, indicating that UCN-01 can protect normal dividing tissues. The mechanism by which UCN-01 arrests normal cells in vivo was also examined. We have demonstrated that UCN-01 treatment in mice causes an increase in the G1 phase cell cycle proteins cdk4 and cyclin D, as well as the inhibitor p27. Phosphorylated Rb was also elevated in the arrested cells. These results are a departure from cell culture studies, in which inhibition of G1 phase cyclin dependent kinases led to hyposphosphorylation of Rb. Future investigation will be required to understand the mechanism of UCN-01 action. This is important information, especially for identification of alternate compounds which could provide the protection afforded by UCN-01.

Dynamics of a minimal model of interlocked positive and negative feedback loops of transcriptional regulation by cAMP-response element binding proteins.

cAMP-response element binding (CREB) proteins are involved in transcriptional regulation in a number of cellular processes (e.g., neural plasticity and circadian rhythms). The CREB family contains activators and repressors that may interact through positive and negative feedback loops. These loops can be generated by auto- and cross-regulation of expression of CREB proteins, via CRE elements in or near their genes. Experiments suggest that such feedback loops may operate in several systems (e.g., Aplysia and rat). To understand the functional implications of such feedback loops, which are interlocked via cross-regulation of transcription, a minimal model with a positive and negative loop was developed and investigated using bifurcation analysis. Bifurcation analysis revealed diverse nonlinear dynamics (e.g., bistability and oscillations). The stability of steady states or oscillations could be changed by time delays in the synthesis of the activator (CREB1) or the repressor (CREB2). Investigation of stochastic fluctuations due to small numbers of molecules of CREB1 and CREB2 revealed a bimodal distribution of CREB molecules in the bistability region. The robustness of the stable HIGH and LOW states of CREB expression to stochastic noise differs, and a critical number of molecules was required to sustain the HIGH state for days or longer. Increasing positive feedback or decreasing negative feedback also increased the lifetime of the HIGH state, and persistence of this state may correlate with long-term memory formation. A critical number of molecules was also required to sustain robust oscillations of CREB expression. If a steady state was near a deterministic Hopf bifurcation point, stochastic resonance could induce oscillations. This comparative analysis of deterministic and stochastic dynamics not only provides insights into the possible dynamics of CREB regulatory motifs, but also demonstrates a framework for understanding other regulatory processes with similar network architecture.

Reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome and cervical artery dissection in 20 patients

OBJECTIVES To describe clinical-radiologic characteristics in a prospective series of patients having both confirmed reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome (RCVS) and cervical artery dissection (CeAD). METHODS From January 2004 to December 2011, from our prospective cohorts of RCVS and CeAD, we studied patients with both conditions. RESULTS Of 173 RCVS cases and 285 CeAD cases, 20 patients (18 women, 2 men; mean age 41 years) had both RCVS and CeAD. Main associated conditions were migraine (12/20) and postpartum (5/18). Clinical features included severe headache in all patients, neck pain in 15, focal neurologic deficit in 9, and seizures in 4. Pain was the only symptom in 10 patients. All patients had multifocal cerebral vasoconstriction. There were brain lesions in 12 patients, cortical subarachnoid hemorrhage in 11, posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome in 4, intracerebral hemorrhage in 3, and infarcts in 4. CeAD involved one artery in 13 patients and multiple arteries in 7. CeAD mostly affected vertebral arteries (25 of 30 CeAD). Only one vertebral CeAD was associated with a related symptomatic infarct. At 3 months, 18 patients had fully recovered, all patients showed reversal of cerebral vasoconstriction, and 21 dissected arteries had normalized, whereas 9 arteries showed residual stenosis (7) and/or aneurysm (3). CONCLUSION The association of RCVS and CeAD was found in 12% of our patients with RCVS and 7% of our patients with CeAD. Underlying mechanisms are unknown. In practice, our results point to the need for a systematic study of both cervical and intracranial arteries in the 2 conditions.