Adapting the assessments

The current assessment of climate change is nearing completion. It is now time to consider how best to provide increasingly complex climate information to policymakers, suggests Thomas F. Stocker.

Reliability of lithium dilution cardiac output in anaesthetized sheep

BACKGROUND: Cardiac output (CO) measurement with lithium dilution (COLD) has not been fully validated in sheep using precise ultrasonic flow probe technology (COUFP). Sheep generate important cardiovascular research models and the use of COLD has become more popular in experimental settings. METHODS: Ultrasonic transit-time perivascular flow probes were surgically implanted on the pulmonary artery of 13 sheep. Paired COLD readings were taken at six time points, before and after implantation of a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) and compared with COUFP recorded just after lithium injection. RESULTS: The mean COLD was 5.7 litre min(-1) (range 3.8-9.6 litre min(-1)) and mean COUFP 5.9 litre min(-1) (range 4.0-9.2 litre min(-1)). The bias (standard deviation) was 0.3 (1.0) litre min(-1) [5.1 (16.9)%] and limits of agreement (LOA) were -1.7 to 2.3 litre min(-1) (-28.8 to 39.0%) with a percentage error (PE) of 34.4%. Data to assess trending [rate (95% confidence intervals)] included a 78 (62-93)% concordance rate in the four-quadrant plot (n=27). In the half moon polar plot (n=19), the mean polar angle was +5°, the radial LOA were -49 to +35° and 68 (47-89)% of data points fell within 22.5° of the mean polar angle. Both tests indicated moderate to poor trending ability. CONCLUSION: COLD is not precise when evaluated against COUFP in sheep based on the statistical criteria set, but the results are comparable with previously published animal studies. KEYWORDS:

Reliability and quality of water isotope data collected with a lowbudget rain collector

RATIONALELow-budget rain collectors for water isotope analysis, such as the `ball-in-funnel type collector' (BiFC), are widely used in studies on stable water isotopes of rain. To date, however, an experimental quality assessment of such devices in relation to climatic factors does not exist. METHODSWe used Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometry (CRDS) to quantify the effects of evaporation on the O-18 values of reference water under controlled conditions as a function of the elapsed time between rainfall and collection for isotope analysis, the sample volume and the relative humidity (RH: 31% and 67%; 25 degrees C). The climate chamber conditions were chosen to reflect the warm and dry end of field conditions that favor evaporative enrichment (EE). We also tested the performance of the BiFC in the field, and compared our H-2/O-18 data obtained by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) with those from the Swiss National Network for the Observation of Isotopes in the Water Cycle (ISOT). RESULTSThe EE increased with time, with a 1 increase in the O-18 values after 10days (RH: 25%; 25 degrees C; 35mL (corresponding to a 5mm rain event); p <0.001). The sample volume strongly affected the EE (max. value +1.5 parts per thousand for 7mL samples (i.e., 1mm rain events) after 72h at 31% and 67% RH; p <0.001), whereas the relative humidity had no significant effect. Using the BiFC in the field, we obtained very tight relationships of the H-2/O-18 values (r(2) 0.95) for three sites along an elevational gradient, not significantly different from that of the next ISOT station. CONCLUSIONSSince the chosen experimental conditions were extreme compared with the field conditions, it was concluded that the BiFC is a highly reliable and inexpensive collector of rainwater for isotope analysis. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantitative and qualitative research approaches to assess student well-being

Although there is dissimiliarity in theoretical research approaches to subjective well-being and to assessments of well-being, there is agreement regarding the value of well-being, especially among student populations. In the highly structured, achievement-oriented, non-optimal context of a classroom, individual well-being is a necessary pre-condition for learning. Among student populations well-being should not be construed as an achievement enhancer; but, rather, recognized and measured as an educational value of its own. However, it is necessary for the positive bias towards learning at least in highly structured, achievement-orientated, non-optional learning contexts like school [cf. Hascher, T. (2004). Wohlbefinden in der Schule. Münster: Waxmann]. How can it be measured? Since different research approaches lead to a variety of instruments, the following paper will focus on two ways of assessing well-being in school: a questionnaire on student well-being (N = 2014) 1 and a semi-structured daily diary about relevant emotional situations in school (N = 58, period 3 × 2 weeks). Both methods are introduced and their methodological quality is discussed in terms of reliability, validity and in terms of their usefulness for improving school practice. Furthermore, the research potential of combining quantitative and qualitative data on students’ well-being is addressed.

Cardiothoracic ratio in postmortem computed tomography: reliability and threshold for the diagnosis of cardiomegaly

The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of the cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) in postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) and to assess a CTR threshold for the diagnosis of cardiomegaly based on the weight of the heart at autopsy. PMCT data of 170 deceased human adults were retrospectively evaluated by two blinded radiologists. The CTR was measured on axial computed tomography images and the actual cardiac weight was weighed at autopsy. Inter-rater reliability, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated to assess enlarged heart weight by CTR. The autopsy definition of cardiomegaly was based on normal values of the Zeek method (within a range of both, one or two SD) and the Smith method (within the given range). Intra-class correlation coefficients demonstrated excellent agreements (0.983) regarding CTR measurements. In 105/170 (62 %) cases the CTR in PMCT was >0.5, indicating enlarged heart weight, according to clinical references. The mean heart weight measured in autopsy was 405 ± 105 g. As a result, 114/170 (67 %) cases were interpreted as having enlarged heart weights according to the normal values of Zeek within one SD, while 97/170 (57 %) were within two SD. 100/170 (59 %) were assessed as enlarged according to Smith's normal values. The sensitivity/specificity of the 0.5 cut-off of the CTR for the diagnosis of enlarged heart weight was 78/71 % (Zeek one SD), 74/55 % (Zeek two SD), and 76/59 % (Smith), respectively. The discriminative power between normal heart weight and cardiomegaly was 79, 73, and 74 % for the Zeek (1SD/2SD) and Smith methods respectively. Changing the CTR threshold to 0.57 resulted in a minimum specificity of 95 % for all three definitions of cardiomegaly. With a CTR threshold of 0.57, cardiomegaly can be identified with a very high specificity. This may be useful if PMCT is used by forensic pathologists as a screening tool for medico-legal autopsies.

Low reliability of perceptual priming: consequences for the interpretation of functional dissociations between explicit and implicit memory

In this study, three experiments are presented that investigate the reliability of memory measures. In Experiment 1, the well-known dissociation between explicit (recall, recognition) and implicit memory (picture clarification) as a function of age in a sample of 335 persons aged between 65 and 95 was replicated. Test-retest reliability was significantly lower in implicit than in explicit measures. In Experiment 2, parallel-test reliabilities in a student sample confirmed the finding of Experiment 1. In Experiment 3, the reliability of cued recall and word stem completion was investigated. There were significant priming effects and a dissociation between explicit and implicit memory as a function of levels of processing. However, the reliability of implicit memory measures was again substantially lower than in explicit tests in all test conditions. As a consequence, differential reliabilities of direct and indirect memory tests should be considered as a possible determinant of dissociations between explicit and implicit memory as a function of experimental or quasi-experimental manipulations.

Intra-session test-retest reliability of pelvic floor muscle electromyography during running

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS The prevalence of female stress urinary incontinence is high, and young adults are also affected, including athletes, especially those involved in "high-impact" sports. To date there have been almost no studies testing pelvic floor muscle (PFM) activity during dynamic functional whole body movements. The aim of this study was the description and reliability test of PFM activity and time variables during running. METHODS A prospective cross-sectional study including ten healthy female subjects was designed with the focus on the intra-session test-retest reliability of PFM activity and time variables during running derived from electromyography (EMG) and accelerometry. RESULTS Thirteen variables were identified based on ten steps of each subject: Six EMG variables showed good reliability (ICC 0.906-0.942) and seven time variables did not show good reliability (ICC 0.113-0.731). Time variables (e.g. time difference between heel strike and maximal acceleration of vaginal accelerator) showed low reliability. However, relevant PFM EMG variables during running (e.g., pre-activation, minimal and maximal activity) could be identified and showed good reliability. CONCLUSION Further adaptations regarding measurement methods should be tested to gain better control of the kinetics and kinematics of the EMG probe and accelerometers. To our knowledge this is the first study to test the reliability of PFM activity and time variables during dynamic functional whole body movements. More knowledge of PFM activity and time variables may help to provide a deeper insight into physical strain with high force impacts and important functional reflexive contraction patterns of PFM to maintain or to restore continence.

Do Cognitive and behavioral assessments of executive functions measure the same concept in children born very preterm?

Aims: This study investigated whether children aged between 8 - 12 years born very preterm (VPT) and/or at very low birth weight (VLBW) performed lower than same-aged term-born controls in cognitive and behavioral aspects of three executive functions: inhibition, working memory, and shifting. Special attention was given to sex differences. Methods: Fifty-two VPT/VLBW children (26 girls) born in the cohort of 1998–2003 at the Children’s University Hospital in Bern, Switzerland, and 36 same-aged term-born controls (18 girls) were recruited. As cognitive measures, children completed tasks of inhibition (Colour-Word Interference Test, D-KEFS), working memory (digit span backwards, WISC-IV) and shifting (Trail Making Test, number-letter switching, D-KEFS). As behavioral measures, mothers completed the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF), assessing executive functions in everyday life.

The dementia cognitive fluctuation scale, a new psychometric test for clinicians to identify cognitive fluctuations in people with dementia.

OBJECTIVES Cognitive fluctuation (CF) is a common feature of dementia and a core diagnostic symptom for dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). CF remains difficult to accurately and reliably detect clinically. This study aimed to develop a psychometric test that could be used by clinicians to facilitate the identification of CF and improve the recognition and diagnosis of DLB and Parkinson disease, and to improve differential diagnosis of other dementias. METHODS We compiled a 17-item psychometric test for identifying CF and applied this measure in a cross-sectional design. Participants were recruited from the North East of England, and assessments were made in individuals' homes. We recruited people with four subtypes of dementia and a healthy comparison group, and all subjects were administered this pilot scale together with other standard ratings. The psychometric properties of the scale were examined with exploratory factor analysis. We also examined the ability of individual items to identify CF to discriminate between dementia subtypes. The sensitivity and specificity of discriminating items were explored along with validity and reliability analyses. RESULTS Participants comprised 32 comparison subjects, 30 people with Alzheimer disease, 30 with vascular dementia, 29 with DLB, and 32 with dementia associated with Parkinson disease. Four items significantly discriminated between dementia groups and showed good levels of sensitivity (range: 78.6%-80.3%) and specificity (range: 73.9%-79.3%). The scale had very good levels of test-retest (Cronbach's alpha: 0.82) and interrater (0.81) reliabilities. The four items loaded onto three different factors. These items were: 1) marked differences in functioning during the daytime; 2) daytime somnolence; 3) daytime drowsiness; and 4) altered levels of consciousness during the day. CONCLUSIONS We identified four items that provide valid, sensitive, and specific questions for reliably identifying CF and distinguishing the Lewy body dementias from other major causes of dementia (Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia).

Functional connectivity in BOLD and CBF data: similarity and reliability of resting brain networks

Resting-state functional connectivity (FC) fMRI (rs-fcMRI) offers an appealing approach to mapping the brain's intrinsic functional organization. Blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) and arterial spin labeling (ASL) are the two main rs-fcMRI approaches to assess alterations in brain networks associated with individual differences, behavior and psychopathology. While the BOLD signal is stronger with a higher temporal resolution, ASL provides quantitative, direct measures of the physiology and metabolism of specific networks. This study systematically investigated the similarity and reliability of resting brain networks (RBNs) in BOLD and ASL. A 2×2×2 factorial design was employed where each subject underwent repeated BOLD and ASL rs-fcMRI scans on two occasions on two MRI scanners respectively. Both independent and joint FC analyses revealed common RBNs in ASL and BOLD rs-fcMRI with a moderate to high level of spatial overlap, verified by Dice Similarity Coefficients. Test-retest analyses indicated more reliable spatial network patterns in BOLD (average modal Intraclass Correlation Coefficients: 0.905±0.033 between-sessions; 0.885±0.052 between-scanners) than ASL (0.545±0.048; 0.575±0.059). Nevertheless, ASL provided highly reproducible (0.955±0.021; 0.970±0.011) network-specific CBF measurements. Moreover, we observed positive correlations between regional CBF and FC in core areas of all RBNs indicating a relationship between network connectivity and its baseline metabolism. Taken together, the combination of ASL and BOLD rs-fcMRI provides a powerful tool for characterizing the spatiotemporal and quantitative properties of RBNs. These findings pave the way for future BOLD and ASL rs-fcMRI studies in clinical populations that are carried out across time and scanners.

Reliability of operational data from pig herds and performance ratings by veterinarians and pig farmers collected during telephone interviews for the evaluation of a PCV2 piglet vaccination

BackgroundThe aim of the present study was to evaluate the feasibility of using a telephone survey in gaining an understanding of the possible herd and management factors influencing the performance (i.e. safety and efficacy) of a vaccine against porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in a large number of herds and to estimate customers¿ satisfaction.ResultsDatasets from 227 pig herds that currently applied or have applied a PCV2 vaccine were analysed. Since 1-, 2- and 3-site production systems were surveyed, the herds were allocated in one of two subsets, where only applicable variables out of 180 were analysed. Group 1 was comprised of herds with sows, suckling pigs and nursery pigs, whereas herds in Group 2 in all cases kept fattening pigs. Overall 14 variables evaluating the subjective satisfaction with one particular PCV2 vaccine were comingled to an abstract dependent variable for further models, which was characterized by a binary outcome from a cluster analysis: good/excellent satisfaction (green cluster) and moderate satisfaction (red cluster). The other 166 variables comprised information about diagnostics, vaccination, housing, management, were considered as independent variables. In Group 1, herds using the vaccine due to recognised PCV2 related health problems (wasting, mortality or porcine dermatitis and nephropathy syndrome) had a 2.4-fold increased chance (1/OR) of belonging to the green cluster. In the final model for Group 1, the diagnosis of diseases other than PCV2, the reason for vaccine administration being other than PCV2-associated diseases and using a single injection of iron had significant influence on allocating into the green cluster (P¿<¿0.05). In Group 2, only unchanged time or delay of time of vaccination influenced the satisfaction (P¿<¿0.05).ConclusionThe methodology and statistical approach used in this study were feasible to scientifically assess ¿satisfaction¿, and to determine factors influencing farmers¿ and vets¿ opinion about the safety and efficacy of a new vaccine.

University and school students' motivation for effortful thinking: Factor structure, reliability, and validity of the German Need for Cognition Scale

Need for cognition (NFC) reflects a relatively stable trait regarding the degree to which one enjoys and engages in cognitive endeavors. We examined whether the previously demonstrated one-dimensional structure of the German NFC Scale could be replicated in three samples of undergraduates and secondary school students. Moreover, we investigated the test-retest reliability of the German NFC Scale, which has not yet been tested. Further, we investigated whether the scale would be valid in a sample of secondary school students. Multigroup confirmatory factor analyses established the one-dimensional factor structure of the long form as well as the short form of the German NFC Scale for undergraduates (N = 559), students of academic track secondary schools (German Gymnasium; N = 555), and students of vocational track secondary schools (German Realschule; N = 486). The scale proved to have a high test-retest reliability in a university student sample (N = 43). For secondary school students, we again found a high test-retest reliability (N = 157), and also found the scale to be valid (N = 181).

An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003

The heat of summer 2003 in Western and Central Europe was claimed to be unprecedented since the Middle Ages on the basis of grape harvest data (GHD) and late wood maximum density (MXD) data from trees in the Alps. This paper shows that the authors of these studies overlooked the fact that the heat and drought in Switzerland in 1540 likely exceeded the amplitude of the previous hottest summer of 2003, because the persistent temperature and precipitation anomaly in that year, described in an abundant and coherent body of documentary evidence, severely affected the reliability of GHD and tree-rings as proxy-indicators for temperature estimates. Spring–summer (AMJJ) temperature anomalies of 4.7 °C to 6.8 °C being significantly higher than in 2003 were assessed for 1540 from a new long Swiss GHD series (1444 to 2011). During the climax of the heat wave in early August the grapes desiccated on the vine, which caused many vine-growers to interrupt or postpone the harvest despite full grape maturity until after the next spell of rain. Likewise, the leaves of many trees withered and fell to the ground under extreme drought stress as would usually be expected in late autumn. It remains to be determined by further research whether and how far this result obtained from local analyses can be spatially extrapolated. Based on the temperature estimates for Switzerland it is assumed from a great number of coherent qualitative documentary evidence about the outstanding heat drought in 1540 that AMJJ temperatures were likely more extreme in neighbouring regions of Western and Central Europe than in 2003. Considering the significance of soil moisture deficits for record breaking heat waves, these results still need to be validated with estimated seasonal precipitation. It is concluded that biological proxy data may not properly reveal record breaking heat and drought events. Such assessments thus need to be complemented with the critical study of contemporary evidence from documentary sources which provide coherent and detailed data about weather extremes and related impacts on human, ecological and social systems.

Intra- and interlaboratory reliability of a cryopreserved trout hepatocyte assay for the prediction of chemical bioaccumulation potential

Measured rates of intrinsic clearance determined using cryopreserved trout hepatocytes can be extrapolated to the whole animal as a means of improving modeled bioaccumulation predictions for fish. To date, however, the intra- and interlaboratory reliability of this procedure has not been determined. In the present study, three laboratories determined in vitro intrinsic clearance of six reference compounds (benzo[a]pyrene, 4-nonylphenol, di-tert-butyl phenol, fenthion, methoxychlor and o-terphenyl) by conducting substrate depletion experiments with cryopreserved trout hepatocytes from a single source. O-terphenyl was excluded from the final analysis due to nonfirst-order depletion kinetics and significant loss from denatured controls. For the other five compounds, intralaboratory variability (% CV) in measured in vitro intrinsic clearance values ranged from 4.1 to 30%, while interlaboratory variability ranged from 27 to 61%. Predicted bioconcentration factors based on in vitro clearance values exhibited a reduced level of interlaboratory variability (5.3-38% CV). The results of this study demonstrate that cryopreserved trout hepatocytes can be used to reliably obtain in vitro intrinsic clearance of xenobiotics, which provides support for the application of this in vitro method in a weight-of-evidence approach to chemical bioaccumulation assessment.