Learning the dynamics of embedded clauses

Recent work by Siegelmann has shown that the computational power of recurrent neural networks matches that of Turing Machines. One important implication is that complex language classes (infinite languages with embedded clauses) can be represented in neural networks. Proofs are based on a fractal encoding of states to simulate the memory and operations of stacks. In the present work, it is shown that similar stack-like dynamics can be learned in recurrent neural networks from simple sequence prediction tasks. Two main types of network solutions are found and described qualitatively as dynamical systems: damped oscillation and entangled spiraling around fixed points. The potential and limitations of each solution type are established in terms of generalization on two different context-free languages. Both solution types constitute novel stack implementations - generally in line with Siegelmann's theoretical work - which supply insights into how embedded structures of languages can be handled in analog hardware.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Contextual intelligent load management with ANN adaptive learning module

With the current increase of energy resources prices and environmental concerns intelligent load management systems are gaining more and more importance. This paper concerns a SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM) system that includes an optimization module using deterministic and genetic algorithm approaches. SHIM undertakes contextual load management based on the characterization of each situation. SHIM considers available generation resources, load demand, supplier/market electricity price, and consumers’ constraints and preferences. The paper focus on the recently developed learning module which is based on artificial neural networks (ANN). The learning module allows the adjustment of users’ profiles along SHIM lifetime. A case study considering a system with fourteen discrete and four variable loads managed by a SHIM system during five consecutive similar weekends is presented.

Strategic bidding methodology for electricity markets using adaptive learning

The very particular characteristics of electricity markets, require deep studies of the interactions between the involved players. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow studying electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is implemented as a multiagent system, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal. This paper also presents a methodology to define players’ models based on the historic of their past actions, interpreting how their choices are affected by past experience, and competition.

Mining protein structure data

The principal topic of this work is the application of data mining techniques, in particular of machine learning, to the discovery of knowledge in a protein database. In the first chapter a general background is presented. Namely, in section 1.1 we overview the methodology of a Data Mining project and its main algorithms. In section 1.2 an introduction to the proteins and its supporting file formats is outlined. This chapter is concluded with section 1.3 which defines that main problem we pretend to address with this work: determine if an amino acid is exposed or buried in a protein, in a discrete way (i.e.: not continuous), for five exposition levels: 2%, 10%, 20%, 25% and 30%. In the second chapter, following closely the CRISP-DM methodology, whole the process of construction the database that supported this work is presented. Namely, it is described the process of loading data from the Protein Data Bank, DSSP and SCOP. Then an initial data exploration is performed and a simple prediction model (baseline) of the relative solvent accessibility of an amino acid is introduced. It is also introduced the Data Mining Table Creator, a program developed to produce the data mining tables required for this problem. In the third chapter the results obtained are analyzed with statistical significance tests. Initially the several used classifiers (Neural Networks, C5.0, CART and Chaid) are compared and it is concluded that C5.0 is the most suitable for the problem at stake. It is also compared the influence of parameters like the amino acid information level, the amino acid window size and the SCOP class type in the accuracy of the predictive models. The fourth chapter starts with a brief revision of the literature about amino acid relative solvent accessibility. Then, we overview the main results achieved and finally discuss about possible future work. The fifth and last chapter consists of appendices. Appendix A has the schema of the database that supported this thesis. Appendix B has a set of tables with additional information. Appendix C describes the software provided in the DVD accompanying this thesis that allows the reconstruction of the present work.

Advanced mapping of environmental data: Geostatistics, Machine Learning and Bayesian Maximum Entropy

This book combines geostatistics and global mapping systems to present an up-to-the-minute study of environmental data. Featuring numerous case studies, the reference covers model dependent (geostatistics) and data driven (machine learning algorithms) analysis techniques such as risk mapping, conditional stochastic simulations, descriptions of spatial uncertainty and variability, artificial neural networks (ANN) for spatial data, Bayesian maximum entropy (BME), and more.

Machine learning algorithms for spatial data. Case studies: Environmental pollution, natural hazards, renewable resources

This paper presents general problems and approaches for the spatial data analysis using machine learning algorithms. Machine learning is a very powerful approach to adaptive data analysis, modelling and visualisation. The key feature of the machine learning algorithms is that they learn from empirical data and can be used in cases when the modelled environmental phenomena are hidden, nonlinear, noisy and highly variable in space and in time. Most of the machines learning algorithms are universal and adaptive modelling tools developed to solve basic problems of learning from data: classification/pattern recognition, regression/mapping and probability density modelling. In the present report some of the widely used machine learning algorithms, namely artificial neural networks (ANN) of different architectures and Support Vector Machines (SVM), are adapted to the problems of the analysis and modelling of geo-spatial data. Machine learning algorithms have an important advantage over traditional models of spatial statistics when problems are considered in a high dimensional geo-feature spaces, when the dimension of space exceeds 5. Such features are usually generated, for example, from digital elevation models, remote sensing images, etc. An important extension of models concerns considering of real space constrains like geomorphology, networks, and other natural structures. Recent developments in semi-supervised learning can improve modelling of environmental phenomena taking into account on geo-manifolds. An important part of the study deals with the analysis of relevant variables and models' inputs. This problem is approached by using different feature selection/feature extraction nonlinear tools. To demonstrate the application of machine learning algorithms several interesting case studies are considered: digital soil mapping using SVM, automatic mapping of soil and water system pollution using ANN; natural hazards risk analysis (avalanches, landslides), assessments of renewable resources (wind fields) with SVM and ANN models, etc. The dimensionality of spaces considered varies from 2 to more than 30. Figures 1, 2, 3 demonstrate some results of the studies and their outputs. Finally, the results of environmental mapping are discussed and compared with traditional models of geostatistics.

Disentangling the attention network test: behavioral, event related potentials, and neural source analyses.

BACKGROUND The study of the attentional system remains a challenge for current neuroscience. The "Attention Network Test" (ANT) was designed to study simultaneously three different attentional networks (alerting, orienting, and executive) based in subtraction of different experimental conditions. However, some studies recommend caution with these calculations due to the interactions between the attentional networks. In particular, it is highly relevant that several interpretations about attentional impairment have arisen from these calculations in diverse pathologies. Event related potentials (ERPs) and neural source analysis can be applied to disentangle the relationships between these attentional networks not specifically shown by behavioral measures. RESULTS This study shows that there is a basic level of alerting (tonic alerting) in the no cue (NC) condition, represented by a slow negative trend in the ERP trace prior to the onset of the target stimuli. A progressive increase in the CNV amplitude related to the amount of information provided by the cue conditions is also shown. Neural source analysis reveals specific modulations of the CNV related to a task-related expectancy presented in the NC condition; a late modulation triggered by the central cue (CC) condition and probably representing a generic motor preparation; and an early and late modulation for spatial cue (SC) condition suggesting specific motor and sensory preactivation. Finally, the first component in the information processing of the target stimuli modulated by the interaction between orienting network and the executive system can be represented by N1. CONCLUSIONS The ANT is useful as a paradigm to study specific attentional mechanisms and their interactions. However, calculation of network effects is based in subtractions with non-comparable experimental conditions, as evidenced by the present data, which can induce misinterpretations in the study of the attentional capacity in human subjects.

Volatility smile extrapolation with an artificial neural network

I use a multi-layer feedforward perceptron, with backpropagation learning implemented via stochastic gradient descent, to extrapolate the volatility smile of Euribor derivatives over low-strikes by training the network on parametric prices.

Strong minimax lower bounds for learning

Minimax lower bounds for concept learning state, for example, thatfor each sample size $n$ and learning rule $g_n$, there exists a distributionof the observation $X$ and a concept $C$ to be learnt such that the expectederror of $g_n$ is at least a constant times $V/n$, where $V$ is the VC dimensionof the concept class. However, these bounds do not tell anything about therate of decrease of the error for a {\sl fixed} distribution--concept pair.\\In this paper we investigate minimax lower bounds in such a--stronger--sense.We show that for several natural $k$--parameter concept classes, includingthe class of linear halfspaces, the class of balls, the class of polyhedrawith a certain number of faces, and a class of neural networks, for any{\sl sequence} of learning rules $\{g_n\}$, there exists a fixed distributionof $X$ and a fixed concept $C$ such that the expected error is larger thana constant times $k/n$ for {\sl infinitely many n}. We also obtain suchstrong minimax lower bounds for the tail distribution of the probabilityof error, which extend the corresponding minimax lower bounds.

Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

Prediction of the bulking phenomenon in wastewater treatment plants

The control and prediction of wastewater treatment plants poses an important goal: to avoid breaking the environmental balance by always keeping the system in stable operating conditions. It is known that qualitative information — coming from microscopic examinations and subjective remarks — has a deep influence on the activated sludge process. In particular, on the total amount of effluent suspended solids, one of the measures of overall plant performance. The search for an input–output model of this variable and the prediction of sudden increases (bulking episodes) is thus a central concern to ensure the fulfillment of current discharge limitations. Unfortunately, the strong interrelationbetween variables, their heterogeneity and the very high amount of missing information makes the use of traditional techniques difficult, or even impossible. Through the combined use of several methods — rough set theory and artificial neural networks, mainly — reasonable prediction models are found, which also serve to show the different importance of variables and provide insight into the process dynamics

Analysis, modelling and classification of geospatial data using machine learning

The research considers the problem of spatial data classification using machine learning algorithms: probabilistic neural networks (PNN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark model simple k-nearest neighbor algorithm is considered. PNN is a neural network reformulation of well known nonparametric principles of probability density modeling using kernel density estimator and Bayesian optimal or maximum a posteriori decision rules. PNN is well suited to problems where not only predictions but also quantification of accuracy and integration of prior information are necessary. An important property of PNN is that they can be easily used in decision support systems dealing with problems of automatic classification. Support vector machine is an implementation of the principles of statistical learning theory for the classification tasks. Recently they were successfully applied for different environmental topics: classification of soil types and hydro-geological units, optimization of monitoring networks, susceptibility mapping of natural hazards. In the present paper both simulated and real data case studies (low and high dimensional) are considered. The main attention is paid to the detection and learning of spatial patterns by the algorithms applied.

Multitask learning of environmental spatial data

The present research deals with an application of artificial neural networks for multitask learning from spatial environmental data. The real case study (sediments contamination of Geneva Lake) consists of 8 pollutants. There are different relationships between these variables, from linear correlations to strong nonlinear dependencies. The main idea is to construct a subsets of pollutants which can be efficiently modeled together within the multitask framework. The proposed two-step approach is based on: 1) the criterion of nonlinear predictability of each variable ?k? by analyzing all possible models composed from the rest of the variables by using a General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) as a model; 2) a multitask learning of the best model using multilayer perceptron and spatial predictions. The results of the study are analyzed using both machine learning and geostatistical tools.

Machine learning analysis and modeling of interest rate curves

The present research deals with the review of the analysis and modeling of Swiss franc interest rate curves (IRC) by using unsupervised (SOM, Gaussian Mixtures) and supervised machine (MLP) learning algorithms. IRC are considered as objects embedded into different feature spaces: maturities; maturity-date, parameters of Nelson-Siegel model (NSM). Analysis of NSM parameters and their temporal and clustering structures helps to understand the relevance of model and its potential use for the forecasting. Mapping of IRC in a maturity-date feature space is presented and analyzed for the visualization and forecasting purposes.