Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Optimal Supervisory Control of Hybrid Vehicles

Hybrid vehicles (HV), comprising a conventional ICE-based powertrain and a secondary energy source, to be converted into mechanical power as well, represent a well-established alternative to substantially reduce both fuel consumption and tailpipe emissions of passenger cars. Several HV architectures are either being studied or already available on market, e.g. Mechanical, Electric, Hydraulic and Pneumatic Hybrid Vehicles. Among the others, Electric (HEV) and Mechanical (HSF-HV) parallel Hybrid configurations are examined throughout this Thesis. To fully exploit the HVs potential, an optimal choice of the hybrid components to be installed must be properly designed, while an effective Supervisory Control must be adopted to coordinate the way the different power sources are managed and how they interact. Real-time controllers can be derived starting from the obtained optimal benchmark results. However, the application of these powerful instruments require a simplified and yet reliable and accurate model of the hybrid vehicle system. This can be a complex task, especially when the complexity of the system grows, i.e. a HSF-HV system assessed in this Thesis. The first task of the following dissertation is to establish the optimal modeling approach for an innovative and promising mechanical hybrid vehicle architecture. It will be shown how the chosen modeling paradigm can affect the goodness and the amount of computational effort of the solution, using an optimization technique based on Dynamic Programming. The second goal concerns the control of pollutant emissions in a parallel Diesel-HEV. The emissions level obtained under real world driving conditions is substantially higher than the usual result obtained in a homologation cycle. For this reason, an on-line control strategy capable of guaranteeing the respect of the desired emissions level, while minimizing fuel consumption and avoiding excessive battery depletion is the target of the corresponding section of the Thesis.

In-situ and real time scanning probe microscopy of organic ultra thin films

In recent decades, Organic Thin Film Transistors (OTFTs) have attracted lots of interest due to their low cost, large area and flexible properties which have brought them to be considered the building blocks of the future organic electronics. Experimentally, devices based on the same organic material deposited in different ways, i.e. by varying the deposition rate of the molecules, show different electrical performance. As predicted theoretically, this is due to the speed and rate by which charge carriers can be transported by hopping in organic thin films, transport that depends on the molecular arrangement of the molecules. This strongly suggests a correlation between the morphology of the organic semiconductor and the performance of the OTFT and hence motivated us to carry out an in-situ real time SPM study of organic semiconductor growth as an almost unprecedent experiment with the aim to fully describe the morphological evolution of the ultra-thin film and find the relevant morphological parameters affecting the OTFT electrical response. For the case of 6T on silicon oxide, we have shown that the growth mechanism is 2D+3D, with a roughening transition at the third layer and a rapid roughening. Relevant morphological parameters have been extracted by the AFM images. We also developed an original mathematical model to estimate theoretically and more accurately than before, the capacitance of an EFM tip in front of a metallic substrate. Finally, we obtained Ultra High Vacuum (UHV) AFM images of 6T at lying molecules layer both on silicon oxide and on top of 6T islands. Moreover, we performed ex-situ AFM imaging on a bilayer film composed of pentacene (a p-type semiconductor) and C60 (an n-type semiconductor).

Improved detection of blood stream pathogens by real-time PCR in severe sepsis

Evaluation of the technical and diagnostic feasibility of commercial multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of blood stream infections in a cohort of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with severe sepsis, performed in addition to conventional blood cultures.

Real-time polymerase chain-reaction detection of pathogens is feasible to supplement the diagnostic sequence for urinary tract infections

To evaluate, in a prospective pilot study, the feasibility of identifying pathogens in urine using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and to compare the results with the conventional urine culture-based procedures.

Comparison of real-time polymerase chain reaction and DNA-strip technology in microbiological evaluation of periodontitis treatment

The impact of a semiquantitative commercially available test based on DNA-strip technology (microIDent®, Hain Lifescience, Nehren, Germany) on diagnosis and treatment of severe chronic periodontitis of 25 periodontitis patients was evaluated in comparison with a quantitative in-house real-time PCR. Subgingival plaque samples were collected at baseline as well as at 3, 6, and 12 months later. After extracting DNA, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythia, Treponema denticola, and several other periodontopathogens were determined by both methods. The results obtained by DNA-strip technology were analyzed semiquantitatively and additionally quantitatively by densitometry. The results for the 4 major periodontopathogenic bacterial species correlated significantly between the 2 methods. Samples detecting a high bacterial load by one method and negative by the other were always found in less than 2% of the total samples. Both technologies showed the impact of treatment on microflora. Especially the semiquantitative DNA-strip technology clearly analyzed the different loads of periodontopathogens after therapy and is useful in microbial diagnostics for patients in dental practices.

Radio-guided surgery: advantages of a new portable γ-camera (Sentinella(®) ) for intraoperative real time imaging and detection of sentinel lymph nodes in cutaneous malignancies

The histological status of the sentinel lymph node (SLN) is one of the most relevant prognostic factors for the overall survival of patients with cutaneous malignancies, independent of tumour depth of the primary tumour.

Suitability of real-time quantitative PCR to estimate the relative telomere length in European Hake (Merluccius merluccius Linnaeus, 1758)

Telomere length measurement has been proposed as a promising tool to estimate the age of individuals in natural populations. We used real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) to measure relative telomere length in four tissues (brain, kidney, liver and muscle) of European hake (Merluccius merluccius) in different groups based upon body length an otolith age estimate. We observed a high level of inter-individual differences in the measurements of relative telomere length in hakes of similar age and body length groups. The results of qPCR analysis showed a great variability in all measures and a lack of repeatability and reproducibility with significant statistical differences in the results of the different assays. The paper discusses the technical reasons for the variability in qPCR obtained in this work and by other authors.

Detecting and resolving position-dependent temperature effects in real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction

Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) depends on precise temperature control of the sample during cycling. In the current study, we investigated how temperature variation in plate-based qPCR instruments influences qPCR results. Temperature variation was measured by amplicon melting analysis as a convenient means to assess well-to-well differences. Multiple technical replicates of several SYBR Green I-based qPCR assays allowed correlation of relative well temperature to quantification cycle. We found that inadequate template denaturation results in an inverse correlation and requires increasing the denaturation temperature, adding a DNA destabilizing agent, or pretreating with a restriction enzyme. In contrast, inadequate primer annealing results in a direct correlation and requires lowering the annealing temperature. Significant correlations were found in 18 of 25 assays. The critical nature of temperature-dependent effects was shown in a blinded study of 29 patients for the diagnosis of Prader-Willy and Angelman syndromes, where eight diagnoses were incorrect unless temperature-dependent effects were controlled. A method to detect temperature-dependent effects by pairwise comparisons of replicates in routine experiments is presented and applied. Systematic temperature errors in qPCR instruments can be recognized and their effects eliminated when high precision is required in quantitative genetic diagnostics and critical complementary DNA analyses.

Direct detection of Mycoplasma bovis in milk and tissue samples by real-time PCR

Bovine mastitis caused by Mycoplasma bovis is of great economic importance to the beef and dairy industry. Here we describe a new specific real-time PCR assay targeting the uvrC gene that was developed to directly detect M. bovis from milk and tissue samples without laborious DNA purification.

Comparison of real-time PCR assays for detection, quantification, and differentiation of campylobacter jejuni and campylobacter coli in broiler neck skin samples

We tested the use of multiplex real-time PCR for detection and quantification of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli on broiler carcass neck skin samples collected during 2008 from slaughterhouses in Switzerland. Results from an established TaqMan assay based on two different targets (hipO and ceuE for C. jejuni and C. coli, respectively) were corroborated with data from a newly developed assay based on a single-nucleotide polymorphism in the fusA gene, which allows differentiation between C. jejuni and C. coli. Both multiplex real-time PCRs were applied simultaneously for direct detection, differentiation, and quantification of Campylobacter from 351 neck skin samples and compared with culture methods. There was good correlation in detection and enumeration between real-time PCR results and quantitative culture, with real-time PCR being more sensitive. Overall, 251 (71.5%) of the samples were PCR positive for Campylobacter, with 211 (60.1%) in the hipO-ceuE assays, 244 (69.5%) in the fusA assay, and 204 (58.1%) of them being positive in both PCR assays. Thus, the fusA assay was similarly sensitive to the enrichment culture (72.4% positive); however, it is faster and allows for quantification. In addition, real-time PCR allowed for species differentiation; roughly 60% of positive samples contained C. jejuni, less than 10% C. coli, and more than 30% contained both species. Real-time PCR proved to be a suitable method for direct detection, quantification, and differentiation of Campylobacter from carcasses, and could permit time-efficient surveillance of these zoonotic agents.

Development and validation of a real-time quantitative PCR assay for rapid identification of Bacillus anthracis in environmental samples

A real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was developed for rapid identification of Bacillus anthracis in environmental samples. These samples often harbor Bacillus cereus bacteria closely related to B. anthracis, which may hinder its specific identification by resulting in false positive signals. The assay consists of two duplex real-time PCR: the first PCR allows amplification of a sequence specific of the B. cereus group (B. anthracis, B. cereus, Bacillus thuringiensis, Bacillus weihenstephanensis, Bacillus pseudomycoides, and Bacillus mycoides) within the phosphoenolpyruvate/sugar phosphotransferase system I gene and a B. anthracis specific single nucleotide polymorphism within the adenylosuccinate synthetase gene. The second real-time PCR assay targets the lethal factor gene from virulence plasmid pXO1 and the capsule synthesis gene from virulence plasmid pXO2. Specificity of the assay is enhanced by the use of minor groove binding probes and/or locked nucleic acids probes. The assay was validated on 304 bacterial strains including 37 B. anthracis, 67 B. cereus group, 54 strains of non-cereus group Bacillus, and 146 Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria strains. The assay was performed on various environmental samples spiked with B. anthracis or B. cereus spores. The assay allowed an accurate identification of B. anthracis in environmental samples. This study provides a rapid and reliable method for improving rapid identification of B. anthracis in field operational conditions.

Real-time ultrasound-guided spinal anaesthesia: a prospective observational study of a new approach

Identification of the subarachnoid space has traditionally been achieved by either a blind landmark-guided approach or using prepuncture ultrasound assistance. To assess the feasibility of performing spinal anaesthesia under real-time ultrasound guidance in routine clinical practice we conducted a single center prospective observational study among patients undergoing lower limb orthopaedic surgery. A spinal needle was inserted unassisted within the ultrasound transducer imaging plane using a paramedian approach (i.e., the operator held the transducer in one hand and the spinal needle in the other). The primary outcome measure was the success rate of CSF acquisition under real-time ultrasound guidance with CSF being located in 97 out of 100 consecutive patients within median three needle passes (IQR 1-6). CSF was not acquired in three patients. Subsequent attempts combining landmark palpation and pre-puncture ultrasound scanning resulted in successful spinal anaesthesia in two of these patients with the third patient requiring general anaesthesia. Median time from spinal needle insertion until intrathecal injection completion was 1.2 minutes (IQR 0.83-4.1) demonstrating the feasibility of this technique in routine clinical practice.