Incidence of bullous pemphigoid and pemphigus in Switzerland: a 2-year prospective study

BACKGROUND: Bullous pemphigoid (BP), pemphigus vulgaris (PV) and pemphigus foliaceus (PF) are autoimmune bullous diseases characterized by the presence of tissue-bound and circulating autoantibodies directed against disease-specific target antigens of the skin. Although rare, these diseases run a chronic course and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. There are few prospective data on gender- and age-specific incidence of these disorders. OBJECTIVES: Our aims were: (i) to evaluate the incidence of BP and PV/PF in Swiss patients, as the primary endpoint; and (ii) to assess the profile of the patients, particularly for comorbidities and medications, as the secondary endpoint. METHODS: The protocol of the study was distributed to all dermatology clinics, immunopathology laboratories and practising dermatologists in Switzerland. All newly diagnosed cases of BP and pemphigus occurring between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2002 were collected. In total, 168 patients (73 men and 95 women) with these autoimmune bullous diseases, with a diagnosis based on clinical, histological and immunopathological criteria, were finally included. RESULTS: BP showed a mean incidence of 12.1 new cases per million people per year. Its incidence increased significantly after the age of 70 years, with a maximal value after the age of 90 years. The female/male ratio was 1.3. The age-standardized incidence of BP using the European population as reference was, however, lower, with 6.8 new cases per million people per year, reflecting the ageing of the Swiss population. In contrast, both PV and PF were less frequent. Their combined mean incidence was 0.6 new cases per million people per year. CONCLUSIONS; This is the first comprehensive prospective study analysing the incidence of autoimmune bullous diseases in an entire country. Our patient cohort is large enough to establish BP as the most frequent autoimmune bullous disease. Its incidence rate appears higher compared with other previous studies, most likely because of the demographic characteristics of the Swiss population. Nevertheless, based on its potentially misleading presentations, it is possible that the real incidence rate of BP is still underestimated. Based on its significant incidence in the elderly population, BP should deserve more public health concern.

Dynamic Effects of Currency Depreciation on Stock Market Returns during the Asian Financial Crisis

The current international integration of financial markets provides a channel for currency depreciation to affect stock prices. Moreover, the recent financial crisis in Asia with its accompanying exchange rate volatility affords a case study to examine that channel. This paper applies a bivariate GARCH-M model of the reduced form of stock market returns to investigate empirically the effects of daily currency depreciation on stock market returns for five newly emerging East Asian stock markets during the Asian financial crisis. The evidence shows that the conditional variances of stock market returns and depreciation rates exhibit time-varying characteristics for all countries. Domestic currency depreciation and its uncertainty adversely affects stock market returns across countries. The significant effects of foreign exchange market events on stock market returns suggest that international fund managers who invest in the newly emerging East Asian stock markets must evaluate the value and stability of the domestic currency as a part of their stock market investment decisions.

The Economic Case for Fiscal Federalism in Scotland

In this paper we consider the case for assigning tax revenues to Scotland, by which we mean that taxes levied on Scottish tax bases should be returned to the Scottish budget. The budget, however, would continue to be supplemented by transfers from the Westminster budget. This arrangement differs from the current situation whereby public spending is largely financed by a bloc grant from Westminster. Our suggestion falls short of full fiscal federalism for Scotland . meaning that Scotland had control over choice of tax base and of tax rates, and fiscal transfers from Westminster would be minimal. We use propositions drawn from the theory of fiscal federalism to argue for a smaller vertical imbalance between taxes retained in Scotland and public spending in Scotland. A closer matching of spending with taxes would better signal to beneficiaries the true costs of public spending in terms of taxes raised. It would also create more complete incentives for politicians to provide public goods and services in quantities and at qualities that voters are actually willing to pay for. Under the current bloc grant system, the marginal tax cost of spending does not enter into political agents. calculations as spending is out of a fixed total budget. Moreover, the Scottish electorate is hindered in signaling its desire for local public goods and services since the size of the total budget is determined by a rigid formula set by Westminster. At the present time we reject proposals for full fiscal federalism because in sharply reducing vertical imbalance in the Scottish budget, it is likely to worsen horizontal balance between Scotland and the other UK regions. Horizontal balance occurs where similarly situated regions enjoy the same per capita level of public goods and services at the same per capita tax cost. The complete removal of the bloc grant under full fiscal federalism would remove the mechanism that currently promotes horizontal equity in the UK. Variability in own-source tax revenues creates other problems with full fiscal federalism. Taxes derived from North Sea oil would constitute a large proportion of Scottish taxes, but these are known to be volatile in the face of variable oil prices and the pound-dollar exchange rate. At the present time variability in oil tax revenue is absorbed by Westminster. Scotland is insulated through the bloc grant. This risk sharing mechanism would be lost with full fiscal federalism. It is true that Scotland could turn to financial markets to tide itself over oil tax revenue downturns, but as a much smaller and less diversified financial entity than the UK as a whole it would probably have to borrow on less favorable terms than can Westminster. Scotland would have to bear this extra cost itself. Also, with full fiscal federalism it is difficult to see how the Scottish budget could be used as a macroeconomic stabilizer. At present, tax revenue downturns in Scotland - together with the steady bloc grant - are absorbed through an increase in vertical imbalance. This acts as an automatic stabilizer for the Scottish economy. No such mechanism would exist under full fiscal federalism. The borrowing alternative would still exist but on the less favorable terms - as with borrowing to finance oil tax shortfalls.

Determinants and Effects of Maturity Mismatches in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Bank Level Data

Despite the extensive work on currency mismatches, research on the determinants and effects of maturity mismatches is scarce. In this paper I show that emerging market maturity mismatches are negatively affected by capital inflows and price volatilities. Furthermore, I find that banks with low maturity mismatches are more profitable during crisis periods but less profitable otherwise. The later result implies that banks face a tradeoff between higher returns and risk, hence channeling short term capital into long term loans is caused by cronyism and implicit guarantees rather than the depth of the financial market. The positive relationship between maturity mismatches and price volatility, on the other hand, shows that the banks of countries with high exchange rate and interest rate volatilities can not, or choose not to hedge themselves. These results follow from a panel regression on a data set I constructed by merging bank level data with aggregate data. This is advantageous over traditional studies which focus only on aggregate data.

Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries

This paper tests the presence of balance sheets effects and analyzes the implications for exchange rate policies in emerging markets. The results reveal that the emerging market bond index (EMBI) is negatively related to the banks' foreign currency leverage, and that these banks' foreign currency exposures are relatively unhedged. Panel SVAR methods using EMBI instead of advanced country lending rates find, contrary to the literature, that the amplitude of output responses to foreign interest rate shocks are smaller under relatively fixed regimes. The findings are robust to the local projections method of obtaining impulse responses, using country specific and GARCH-SVAR models.

Financial Liberalization and Inflationary Dynamics in the Context of a Small Open Economy

The paper develops a short-run model of a small open financially repressed economy characterized by unorganized money markets, capital good imports, capital mobility, wage indexation, and flexible exchange rates. The analysis shows that financial liberalization, in the form of an increased rate of interest on deposits and tight monetary policy, unambiguously and unconditionally causes deflation. Moreover, the results do not depend on the degree of capital mobility and structure of wage setting. The paper recommends that a small open developing economy should deregulate interest rates and tighten monetary policy if reducing inflation is a priority. The pre-requisite for such a policy, however, requires the establishment of a flexible exchange rate regime.

International Money and Finance

We discuss the effectiveness of pegged exchange rate regimes from an historical perspective, drawing conclusions for their effectiveness today. Starting with the classical gold standard period, we point out that a succession of pegged regimes have ended in failure; except for the first, which was ended by the outbreak of World War I, all of the others we discuss have been ended by adverse economic developments for which the regimes themselves were partly responsible. Prior to World War II the main problem was a shortage of monetary gold that we argue is implicated as a cause of the Great Depression. After World War II, more particularly from the late-1960s, the main problem has been a surfeit of the main international reserve asset, the US dollar. This has led to generalized inflation in the 1970s and into the 1980s. Today, excessive dollar international base money creation is again a problem that could have serious consequences for world economic stability.

A costing exercise of provision of prevention of HIV transmission from mother to child services in Vietnam

Objectives. This dissertation focuses on estimating the cost of providing a minimum package of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) in Vietnam from a societal perspective and discussing the issues of scaling-up the minimum package nationwide. ^ Methods. Through collection of cost-related data of PMTCT services at 22 PMTCT sites in 5 provinces (Hanoi, Quang Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Hochiminh City, and An Giang) in Vietnam, the research investigates the item cost of each service in minimum PMTCT packages and the actual cost per PMTCT site at different organizational levels including central, provincial, and district. Next, the actual cost per site at each organizational level is standardized by adjusting for HIV prevalence rate to arrive at standardized costs per site. This study then uses the standardized costs per site to project, by different scenarios, the total cost to scale-up the PMTCT program in Vietnam. ^ Results. The cost for HIV tests, infant formula, and salary of health workers are consistently found to be the biggest expenditures in the PMTCT minimum package program across all organizational levels. Annual cost for drugs for prophylaxis treatment, operating and capital, and training costs are not substantial (less than 5% of total costs at all levels). The actual annual estimated cost for a PMTCT site at the central level is nearly VND 1.9 billion or US$ 107,650 (exchange rate US$ 1 = VND 17,500) while the annual cost for a provincial site is VND 375 million or US$ 21,400. The annual cost for a district site is VND 139 million (∼US$ 8,000). ^ The estimated total annual cost to roll out the PMTCT minimum package to the 5 studied provinces is approximately US$ 1.1 million. If the PMTCT program is to be scaled-up to 14 provinces until 2008 and up to 40 provinces through the end of 2010 as planned by the Ministry of Health, it would cost the health system an approximate annual amount of US$ 2.1 million and US$ 5.04 million, respectively. The annual cost for scaling-up the PMTCT minimum package nationwide is around US$ 7.6 million. Meanwhile, the total annual cost to implement PMTCT minimum packages to achieve PMTCT national targets in 2010 (providing counseling service to 90% of all pregnant women; 60% of them will receive HIV tests and 100% of HIV (+) mother and their newborn will receive prophylaxis treatment) would be US$ 6.1 million. ^ Recommendations. This study recommends: (1) the Ministry of Health of Vietnam should adjust its short-term national targets to a more feasible and achievable level given the current level of available resources; (2) a detailed budget for scaling-up the PMTCT program should be developed together with the national PMTCT action plan; (3) the PMTCT scaling-up plan developed by the Ministry of Health should focus on coverage of high prevalence population and quality of services provided rather than number of physical provinces reached; (4) exclusive breastfeeding strategy should be promoted as part of the PMTCT program; and (5) for a smooth and effective rolling out of PMTCT services nationwide, development of a national training plan and execution of this plan must precede any other initiations of the PMTCT scaling-up plan. ^

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Influencia de cuatro alternativas de crianza en roble sobre el color, la composición polifenológica y las características organolépticas de vinos Malbec y Cabernet Sauvignon

Los costos de las barricas, por el tipo de cambio en la Argentina, son inaccesibles para muchas bodegas. Debido a esto, muchas de ellas utilizan sistemas alternativos de crianza, no conociendo claramente las consecuencias y los fenómenos que ocurren con el uso de estos sistemas. El objetivo del trabajo fue evaluar la composición polifenólica, el color y los caracteres sensoriales de vinos tratados con distintos sistemas de crianza en madera. Para ello se utilizaron métodos espectofotométricos rápidos y fácilmente realizables en bodega. Los tra tamientos a los cuales se sometió el vino fueron: barrica de roble americano de primer uso, barrica de más de cinco años de uso reacondicionada, vasija de acero inoxidable con “dominó" de roble en dosis comúnmente usadas en el medio, vasija de acero inoxidable con “dominó" de roble en dosis equivalentes a la superficie de contacto de la barrica y vino sin madera tomado como testigo. El ensayo se realizó con vinos cosecha 2007 de las variedades Malbec y Cabernet Sauvignon y el tiempo de crianza fue de 10 meses. Los resultados mostraron que en ninguna de las variedades los tratamientos con barricas obtuvieron mayor nivel de polimerización que el resto de los tratamientos ni tampoco los sistemas con agregado de fragmentos de roble superaron en polimerización al vino sin madera. Por otro lado, sólo en la variedad Cabernet Sauvignon la barrica nueva superó en intensidad de color al vino sin madera. En cambio, los tratamientos con roble favorecieron la copigmentación y los copigmentos inhibieron la polimerización, haciendo más lenta la formación de uniones tanino- antocianos pero también protegiendo el color y evitando oxidaciones, esta situación podría explicar los resultados contradictorios entre distintos autores. En el aspecto sensorial los vinos en barricas no obtuvieron mayor intensidad de color ni menor astringencia que los vinos con agregado de roble y tampoco estos últimos lograron diferencias con el vino testigo. Por otro lado en ambas variedades, la barrica nueva y el tratamiento con alta dosis de dominó de roble tuvieron la mayor intensidad aromática con descriptores como vainilla y chocolate aunque la alternativa de crianza con “dominó" estuvo muy ligada al descriptor “tabla". La barrica reacondicionada mostró el mayor nivel del descriptor betún y en el tratamiento testigo se detectaron aromas de reducción. El tratamiento con dominó de roble en dosis comerciales se encontró más ligado a los aromas frutados.

Sobre la homogeinización de la presión fiscal en la agricultura pampeana tras la devaluación

La década del '90 marcó una fuerte aceleración del proceso de concentración económica de la producción agrícola pampeana, evolución que continuaría tras la devaluación de 2002. En la determinación del mismo convergen distintos factores: las economías de escala, el manejo cambiario, la evolución tecnológica (entre otros). En este trabajo se estudia uno de estos condicionantes: la política impositiva del Estado Nacional. Se analizan los tributos que gravan al agro y sus alícuotas, diferenciando según la escala y perfil tecnológico del productor, calculando un indicador de la presión fiscal (peso de los tributos sobre el ingreso bruto de la explotación). Se concluye que en el nuevo siglo se produjo una nivelación importante en cuanto a los montos impositivos requeridos por el Estado a los distintos tipos de agentes, lo que minimizó la posibilidad que tiene éste a partir de aquella herramienta de modelar una trama social más desconcentrada

El sector agropecuario en la región de Los Lagos y el paradigma "Chile potencia alimentaria" : Desafíos para la política agraria nacional

La reestructuración del modelo económico en Chile a mediados de los setenta impactó a todos los sectores productivos y el sector agropecuario no fue una excepción. Se iniciaba así el comienzo de la "Era agroexportadora", que fomentaba aquellas orientaciones productivas con claras ventajas competitivas en los mercados internacionales. El paradigma agrícola chileno se ha caracterizado por funcionar sobre la base de salarios bajos, disponibilidad de mano de obra y tipo de cambio favorable. En 2006, y en este escenario, se ha implementado la política pública denominada "Chile Potencia Alimentaria 2020", que buscar reforzar la fórmula anterior. Esta iniciativa considera estrategias de crecimiento que invisibilizan la estructura bimodal agraria presente en el país. A lo anterior se suma el agravante de que territorios (como la Región de Los Lagos en el sur de Chile) con orientaciones productivas tradicionales (ganaderas específicamente) presentan posiciones manifiestamente vulnerables, especialmente de aquellos grupos de productores que se caracterizan por funcionar con racionalidades distintas de la empresarial.

Sobre la homogeinización de la presión fiscal en la agricultura pampeana tras la devaluación

La década del '90 marcó una fuerte aceleración del proceso de concentración económica de la producción agrícola pampeana, evolución que continuaría tras la devaluación de 2002. En la determinación del mismo convergen distintos factores: las economías de escala, el manejo cambiario, la evolución tecnológica (entre otros). En este trabajo se estudia uno de estos condicionantes: la política impositiva del Estado Nacional. Se analizan los tributos que gravan al agro y sus alícuotas, diferenciando según la escala y perfil tecnológico del productor, calculando un indicador de la presión fiscal (peso de los tributos sobre el ingreso bruto de la explotación). Se concluye que en el nuevo siglo se produjo una nivelación importante en cuanto a los montos impositivos requeridos por el Estado a los distintos tipos de agentes, lo que minimizó la posibilidad que tiene éste a partir de aquella herramienta de modelar una trama social más desconcentrada

El sector agropecuario en la región de Los Lagos y el paradigma "Chile potencia alimentaria" : Desafíos para la política agraria nacional

La reestructuración del modelo económico en Chile a mediados de los setenta impactó a todos los sectores productivos y el sector agropecuario no fue una excepción. Se iniciaba así el comienzo de la "Era agroexportadora", que fomentaba aquellas orientaciones productivas con claras ventajas competitivas en los mercados internacionales. El paradigma agrícola chileno se ha caracterizado por funcionar sobre la base de salarios bajos, disponibilidad de mano de obra y tipo de cambio favorable. En 2006, y en este escenario, se ha implementado la política pública denominada "Chile Potencia Alimentaria 2020", que buscar reforzar la fórmula anterior. Esta iniciativa considera estrategias de crecimiento que invisibilizan la estructura bimodal agraria presente en el país. A lo anterior se suma el agravante de que territorios (como la Región de Los Lagos en el sur de Chile) con orientaciones productivas tradicionales (ganaderas específicamente) presentan posiciones manifiestamente vulnerables, especialmente de aquellos grupos de productores que se caracterizan por funcionar con racionalidades distintas de la empresarial.

Sobre la homogeinización de la presión fiscal en la agricultura pampeana tras la devaluación

La década del '90 marcó una fuerte aceleración del proceso de concentración económica de la producción agrícola pampeana, evolución que continuaría tras la devaluación de 2002. En la determinación del mismo convergen distintos factores: las economías de escala, el manejo cambiario, la evolución tecnológica (entre otros). En este trabajo se estudia uno de estos condicionantes: la política impositiva del Estado Nacional. Se analizan los tributos que gravan al agro y sus alícuotas, diferenciando según la escala y perfil tecnológico del productor, calculando un indicador de la presión fiscal (peso de los tributos sobre el ingreso bruto de la explotación). Se concluye que en el nuevo siglo se produjo una nivelación importante en cuanto a los montos impositivos requeridos por el Estado a los distintos tipos de agentes, lo que minimizó la posibilidad que tiene éste a partir de aquella herramienta de modelar una trama social más desconcentrada