Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both.

A framework for enabling dynamic e-business strategies via new enterprise paradigms and ERP solutions

In the global Internet economy, e-business as a driving force to redefine business models and operational processes is posing new challenges for traditional organizational structures and information system (IS) architectures. These are showing promises of a renewed period of innovative thinking in e-business strategies with new enterprise paradigms and different Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. In this chapter, the authors consider and investigate how dynamic e-business strategies, as the next evolutionary generation of e-business, can be realized through newly diverse enterprise structures supported by ERP, ERPII and so-called "ERPIII" solutions relying on the virtual value chain concept. Exploratory inductive multi-case studies in manufacturing and printing industries have been conducted. Additionally, it proposes a conceptual framework to discuss the adoption and governance of ERP systems within the context of three enterprise forms for enabling dynamic and collaborative e-business strategies, and particularly demonstrate how an enterprise can dynamically migrate from its current position to the patterns it desires to occupy in the future - a migration that must and will include dynamic e-business as a core competency, but that also relies heavily on ERP-based backbone and other robust technological platform and applications.

Giants and dwarfs:the multilevel lobbying strategies of national interest organizations

The article addresses the bias in interest representation within the EU by examining the lobbying strategies of national interest organisations within the EU’s multilevel political system. Both our theoretical framework, which includes the determinants of a national interest organisation's decision to act at the EU level, and the data analysis from the INTEREURO Multi-Level Governance Module (MLG) (www.intereuro.eu) reveal three main findings. Firstly, the greatest differentiation among interest organisations (IOs) appears to be between those IOs from the older member states (Germany, the UK and the Netherlands), which exhibit above-average levels of activity, and those from the newer EU member states (Sweden, Slovenia), which exhibit below-average levels of activity. Secondly, the variations in IO activity levels are much greater from country to country than from one policy field to another. Thirdly, although the IOs from all five countries in our study are more likely to employ media and publishing strategies (information politics) than to mobilise their members and supporters (protest politics), we can still observe national patterns in their selection of strategies and in the intensity of their instrumentalisation.

Az euróövezet bővítése és euróbevezetési stratégiák (Euro-area enlargement and euro adoption strategies)

Tanulmányunk azokat a kockázatokat és kihívásokat vizsgálja, amelyekkel az új EU tagállamok szembesülnek az euróhoz vezető úton, valamint elemzi az euró bevezetésével és a bevezetés időzítésével kapcsolatos stratégiákat is. Megvizsgáljuk a reál- és nominálkonvergencia kapcsolatát az euróövezetbe csatlakozás szemszögéből. Véleményünk szerint a gazdaság egy főre jutó jövedelemben mért kezdeti fejlettségi szintje, valamint a reálkonvergencia sebessége kihatnak a követendő stratégiákra és a belépés időzítésére. Minél alacsonyabb ugyanis egy ország egy főre jutó jövedelme, annál nagyobb az árszínvonalbeli lemaradása (amit be kell hoznia), és az új tagok jelenlegi helyzetét figyelembe véve annál nagyobb a veszélye annak, hogy a hitelek növekedése túlzottá, a gazdaság túlfűtötté válik. Úgy gondoljuk, hogy az inflációkövetés lebegő árfolyam mellett megfelelőbb az árszínvonal felzárkózási folyamatának kezelésére, mint valamilyen merev árfolyamrögzítés. Elemezzük a maastrichti kritériumokat az új EU-tagállamok gazdasági jellemzőinek szempontjából, és az inflációs kritérium módosítását javasoljuk, amely jelenlegi formájában elvesztette közgazdasági értelmét. JEL kód: E31, E52, E60, F30. /===/ This paper commissioned by DG ECFIN from the EU Commission as part of the EMU@10 project and published in Hungarian by the permission of the EU Commission. The origi-nal English version is available at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/ publication_summary12103_en.htm. The paper discusses the risks and challenges faced by new members on the road to the euro and the strategies and timing of euro adoption. It investigates the real/nominal convergence nexus from the perspective of euro-area entry, arguing that the initial level of economic development, as measured by per capita income, and the speed of real convergence have a bearing on the strategies to follow and the timing of entry into the euro area, for the lower per capita income is, the larger is the price-level gap to close and the greater the danger of credit booms and overheating. It is argued argue that inflation targeting with floating rates is better suited than hard pegs to managing the price-level catch-up process. A suggestion is made for modifying the Maastricht inflation criterion, which as currently defined has lost its economic logic.

The effects of bilingual and monolingual reading videos on story recall with students who are deaf and hard of hearing

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of bilingual and monolingual videos on the reading comprehension of students with significant hearing impairments and/or deafness. Children with and without hearing losses need reading programs in which comprehension of meaning is the primary goal. This can occur only when print is represented in meaningful context, allowing children to create meaning from their own experience, background, and knowledge of language.^ Investigated in this study was whether students with significant hearing losses comprehended more information in a bilingual or monolingual instructional video format. There were three instructional videos produced: (a) the bilingual video which incorporated American Sign Language (ASL) with standard English captions, (b) a monolingual English video with standard English captions only, and (c) a monolingual ASL-only video. It was hypothesized that the effects of English captioning with ASL might serve as a bridge during instruction, increasing reading comprehension and written English for students. It was further hypothesized that this would allow students to integrate their own ASL knowledge to the printed text to construct meaning.^ Four separate analyses were conducted to see if the hypothesis was supported by the findings. However, all results indicated that there were no significant differences in students' written measures of reading comprehension recall across any of the three presentations of information (two monolingual and one bilingual condition). There were seven variables (word identification, word recall, sentence recall, story recall, written passage theme, written passage word count, and number of mature words) used to evaluate reading comprehension recall. No variable, either individually or grouped, demonstrated a significant difference between monolingual or bilingual instruction. ^

Determinants of resource development strategies in nonprofit organizations: An analysis of children, youth and family services

This study is an exploratory analysis of an operational measure for resource development strategies, and an exploratory analysis of internal organizational contingencies influencing choices of these strategies in charitable nonprofit organizations. The study provides conceptual guidance for advancing understanding about resource development in the nonprofit sector. The statistical findings are, however, inconclusive without further rigorous examination. A three category typology based on organization technology is initially presented to define the strategies. Three dimensions of internal organizational contingencies explored represent organization identity, professional staff, and boards of directors. Based on relevant literature and key informant interviews, an original survey was administered by mail to a national sample of nonprofit organizations. The survey collected data on indicators of the proposed strategy types and selected contingencies. Factor analysis extracted two of the initial categories in the typology. The Building Resource Development Infrastructure Strategy encompasses information technology, personnel, legal structures, and policies facilitating fund development. The Building Resource Development Infrastructure Strategy encompasses the mission, service niche, and type of service delivery forming the basis for seeking financial support. Linear regressions with each strategy type as the dependent variable identified distinct and common contingencies which may partly explain choices of strategies. Discriminant analysis suggests the potential predictive accuracy of the contingencies. Follow-up case studies with survey respondents provide additional criteria for operationalizing future measures of resource development strategies, and support and expand the analysis on contingencies. The typology offers a beginning framework for defining alternative approaches to resource development, and for exploring organization capacity specific to each approach. Contingencies that may be integral components of organization capacity are funding, leadership frame, background and experience, staff and volunteer effort, board member support, and relationships in the external environment. Based on these findings, management questions are offered for nonprofit organization stakeholders to consider in planning for resource development. Lessons learned in designing and conducting this study are also provided to enhance future related research. ^

Resources, strategies, location determinants, and host country location choice by emerging market firms

The extant literature had studied the determinants of the firms’ location decisions with help of host country characteristics and distances between home and host countries. Firm resources and its internationalization strategies had found limited attention in this literature. To address this gap, the research question in this dissertation was whether and how firms’ resources and internationalization strategies impacted the international location decisions of emerging market firms. ^ To explore the research question, data were hand-collected from Indian software firms on their location decisions taken between April 2000 and March 2009. To analyze the multi-level longitudinal dataset, hierarchical linear modeling was used. The results showed that the internationalization strategies, namely market-seeking or labor-seeking had direct impact on firms’ location decision. This direct relationship was moderated by firm resource which, in case of Indian software firms, was the appraisal at CMMI level-5. Indian software firms located in developed countries with a market-seeking strategy and in emerging markets with a labor-seeking strategy. However, software firms with resource such as CMMI level-5 appraisal, when in a labor-seeking mode, were more likely to locate in a developed country over emerging market than firms without the appraisal. Software firms with CMMI level-5 appraisal, when in market-seeking mode, were more likely to locate in a developed country over an emerging market than firms without the appraisal. ^ It was concluded that the internationalization strategies and resources of companies predicted their location choices, over and above the variables studied in the theoretical field of location determinants.^

An investigation of the strategies used by organizations participating in the welfare-to-work network program and correlation of the strategies with the retention data to determine best practices for job retention among former welfare recipients

This ex post facto study (N = 209) examined the relationships between employer job strategies and job retention among organizations participating in Florida welfare-to-work network programs and associated the strategies with job retention data to determine best practices. ^ An internet-based self-report survey battery was administered to a heterogeneous sampling of organizations participating in the Florida welfare-to-work network program. Hypotheses were tested through correlational and hierarchical regression analytic procedures. The partial correlation results linked each of the job retention strategies to job retention. Wages, benefits, training and supervision, communication, job growth, work/life balance, fairness and respect were all significantly related to job retention. Hierarchical regression results indicated that the training and supervision variable was the best predictor of job retention in the regression equation. ^ The size of the organization was also a significant predictor of job retention. Large organizations reported higher job retention rates than small organizations. There was no statistical difference between the types of organizations (profit-making and non-profit) and job retention. The standardized betas ranged from to .26 to .41 in the regression equation. Twenty percent of the variance in job retention was explained by the combination of demographic and job retention strategy predictors, supporting the theoretical, empirical, and practical relevance of understanding the association between employer job strategies and job retention outcomes. Implications for adult education and human resource development theory, research, and practice are highlighted as possible strategic leverage points for creating conditions that facilitate the development of job strategies as a means for improving former welfare workers’ job retention.^

Comparison of repeated and two non-repeated readings conditions on reading abilities of students with emotional and/or behavioral disabilities

Students with emotional and/or behavioral disorders (EBD)present considerable academic challenges along with emotional and/or behavioral problems. In terms of reading, these students typically perform one-to-two years below grade level (Kauffman, 2001). Given the strong correlation between reading failure and school failure and overall success (Scott & Shearer-Lingo, 2002), finding effective approaches to reading instruction is imperative for these students (Staubitz, Cartledge, Yurick, & Lo, 2005). This study used an alternating treatments design to comparethe effects of three conditions on the reading fluency, errors, and comprehension of four, sixth-grade students with EBD who were struggling readers. Specifically, the following were compared: (a) Repeated readings in which participants repeatedly read a passage of about 100-150 words, three times, (b) Non-repeated readings in which participants sequentially read an original passage of about 100-150 words once, and (c) Equivalent non-repeated readings in which participants sequentially read a passage of about 300-450 words, equivalent to the number of words in the repeated readings condition. Also examined were the effects of the three repeated readings practice trials per sessions on reading fluency and errors. The reading passage difficulty and length established prior to commencing were used for all participants throughout the standard phase. During the enhanced phase, the reading levels were increased 6 months for all participants, and for two (the advanced readers), the length of the reading passages was increased by 50%, allowing for comparisons under more rigorous conditions. The results indicate that overall repeated readings had the best outcome across the standard and enhanced phases for increasing readers’ fluency, reducing their errors per minute, and supporting fluency answers to literal comprehension questions correctly as compared to non-repeated and equivalent non-repeated conditions. When comparing nonrepeated and equivalent non-repeated readings,there were mixed results. Under the enhanced phases, the positive effects of repeated readings were more demonstrative. Additional research is needed to compare the effects of repeated and equivalent non-repeated readings across other populations of students with disabilities or varying learning styles. This research should include collecting repeated readings practice trial data for fluency and errors to further analyze the immediate effects of repeatedly reading a passage.

Pairing Repeated Reading and Systematic Error Correction: Impact on Fluency of 18 Year Old Students on a Small Caribbean Island

This study investigates the impact of a combined treatment of Systematic Error Correction and Repeated Reading on reading rate and errors for 18 year olds with undiagnosed reading difficulties on a Caribbean Island. In addition to direct daily measures of reading accuracy, the Reading Self Perception Scale was administered to determine whether the intervention was associated with changes in the way the student perceives himself as a reader.

The effects of an individualized clinical reading program on kindergarten and beginning grade one at -risk students: A longitudinal study

This was a longitudinal study that investigated the effects of an early intervention program which was implemented at the beginning of formal reading instruction and used individual clinical instruction with at-risk students. A total of 37 private school students were divided into three cognitive ability groups and evaluated over a three year period using the reading comprehension and study skills sections of the Stanford Achievement Tests (1982) administered annually. At-risk students were matched with a normal peer group for gender, cognitive ability, and time at school. Results showed there were no significant differences in the reading comprehension scores for program and non-program students. However, the at-risk group showed significantly lower scores on the study skills section at the end of grade three. These results indicate that early reading intervention for at-risk students promotes compensation and helps develop processes for adequate reading comprehension but these students continue to have weaker linguistic abilities. ^

Factors affecting the alignment of *grades and reading scores for third-grade students on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test

The purpose of this study was to aid in understanding the relationship between current Reading report card grading practices and standards-based state standardized testing results in Reading and factors associated with the alignment of this relationship. Report card and Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FLAT) data for 2004 were collected for 1064 third grade students in nine schools of one feeder pattern in Florida's Miami-Dade County Public Schools. A Third Grade Teacher Questionnaire was administered to 48 Reading teachers. The questionnaire contained items relating to teachers' education, teaching experience, grading practices, and beliefs about the FCAT, instructional Reading activities, methods, and materials. ^ Findings of this study support a strong relationship between report card grades and FCAT Reading achievement levels. However, individual school correlational analysis showed significant differences among schools' alignment measures. Higher teacher alignment between grades and FCAT levels was associated with teachers spending more time on individualized methods of Reading instruction and to teachers feeling there was not enough time to teach and help individual students. Lower teacher alignment of grades and achievement levels was associated with teachers taking homework into account in the final Reading grade. Teacher alignment of grades and achievement levels was not associated with teacher beliefs concerning the FCAT, instructional activities in Reading and Language Arts, the Reading program used, the model of delivery of the Reading program, instruction or type of instructional planning done by the teachers. ^ This study highlights the need for further investigations related to determining additional teacher factors that may affect the alignment relationship between report card grades and standards-based state standardized testing results. ^

Resource, Strategies, Location Determinants, And Host Country Location Choice By Emerging Market Firms

The extant literature had studied the determinants of the firms’ location decisions with help of host country characteristics and distances between home and host countries. Firm resources and its internationalization strategies had found limited attention in this literature. To address this gap, the research question in this dissertation was whether and how firms’ resources and internationalization strategies impacted the international location decisions of emerging market firms. To explore the research question, data were hand-collected from Indian software firms on their location decisions taken between April 2000 and March 2009. To analyze the multi-level longitudinal dataset, hierarchical linear modeling was used. The results showed that the internationalization strategies, namely market-seeking or labor-seeking had direct impact on firms’ location decision. This direct relationship was moderated by firm resource which, in case of Indian software firms, was the appraisal at CMMI level-5. Indian software firms located in developed countries with a market-seeking strategy and in emerging markets with a labor-seeking strategy. However, software firms with resource such as CMMI level-5 appraisal, when in a labor-seeking mode, were more likely to locate in a developed country over emerging market than firms without the appraisal. Software firms with CMMI level-5 appraisal, when in market-seeking mode, were more likely to locate in a developed country over an emerging market than firms without the appraisal. It was concluded that the internationalization strategies and resources of companies predicted their location choices, over and above the variables studied in the theoretical field of location determinants.

Best Practices: Lessons Learned by a South Florida Non-Profit Community Based Organization while Designing and Implementing a Career Exploration Evidence Informed Framework in Urban Communities

All A’s was designed to support of the agency’s family strengthening initiatives in South Florida. All A’s uses evidence informed strategies poised to be an inclusive curriculum that teaches self-determination and adaptive behavior skills. The framework incorporates problem based learning and adult learning theory and follows the Universal Design for Learning. Since 2012, the agency has served over 8500 youth and 4,000 adults using the framework. The framework addresses educational underachievement and career readiness in at risk populations. It is used to enhance participants AWARENESS of setting SMART goals to achieve future goals and career aspirations. Participants are provided with ACCESS to resources and opportunities for creating and implementing an ACTION plan as they pursue and ACHIEVE their goals. All A’s promotes protective factors and expose youth to career pathways in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) related fields. Youth participate in college tours, job site visits, job shadowing, high school visits, online college and career preparation assistance, service learning projects, STEM projects, and the Winning Futures© mentoring program. Adults are assisted with résumé development; learn job search strategies, interview techniques, job shadowing experiences, computer and financial literacy programs. Adults and youth are also given the opportunity to complete industry-recognized certifications in high demand industries (food service, general labor, and construction), and test preparation for the General Educational Development Test.

COGNITIVE AND LINGUISTIC FACTORS OF READING ARABIC: THE ROLE OF MORPHOLOGICAL AWARENESS IN READING

Scientific reading research has produced substantial evidence linking specific reading components to a range of constructs including phonological awareness (PA), morphological awareness, orthographic processing (OP), rapid automatized naming, working memory and vocabulary. There is a paucity of research on Arabic, although 420 million people around the world (Gordon, 2005) speak Arabic. As a Semitic language, Arabic differs in many ways from Indo-European languages. Over the past three decades, literacy research has begun to elucidate the importance of morphological awareness (MA) in reading. Morphology is a salient aspect of Arabic word structure. This study was designed to (a) examine the dimensions underlying MA in Arabic; (b) determine how well MA predicts reading; (c) investigate the role of the standard predictors in different reading outcomes; and (d) investigate the construct of reading in Arabic. This study was undertaken in two phases. In Phase I, 10 MA measures and two reading measures were developed, and tested in a sample of 102 Grade 3 Arabic-speaking children. Factor analysis of the 10 MA tasks yielded one predominant factor supporting the construct validity of MA in Arabic. Hierarchical regression analyses, controlling for age and gender, indicated that the MA factor solution accounted for 41– 43% of the variance in reading. In Phase II, the widely studied predictor measures were developed for PA and OP in addition to one additional measure of MA (root awareness), and three reading measures In Phase II, all measures were administered to another sample of 201 Grade 3 Arabic-speaking children. The construct of reading in Arabic was examined using factor analysis. The joint and unique effects of all standard predictors were examined using different sets of hierarchical regression analyses. Results of Phase II showed that: (a) all five reading measures loaded on one factor; (b) MA consistently accounted for unique variance in reading, particularly in comprehension, above and beyond the standard predictors; and (c) the standard predictors had differential contributions. These findings underscore the contribution of MA to all components of Arabic reading. The need for more emphasis on including morphology in Arabic reading instruction and assessment is discussed.