Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations

The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition are uncertain. Drawing on the evidence in Alesina and Ardagna (2010), we emphasize whether or not the fiscal consolidation is driven by tax rises or expenditure cuts. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary and/or successful in stabilizing government debt.

Universal banking, competition and risk in a macro model

A stylized macroeconomic model is developed with an indebted, heterogeneous Investment Banking Sector funded by borrowing from a retail banking sector. The government guarantees retail deposits. Investment banks choose how risky their activities should be. We compared the benefits of separated vs. universal banking modelled as a vertical integration of the retail and investment banks. The incidence of banking default is considered under different constellations of shocks and degrees of competitiveness. The benefits of universal banking rise in the volatility of idiosyncratic shocks to trading strategies and are positive even for very bad common shocks, even though government bailouts, which are costly, are larger compared to the case of separated banking entities. The welfare assessment of the structure of banks may depend crucially on the kinds of shock hitting the economy as well as on the efficiency of government intervention.

Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive

We study a business cycle model in which a benevolent fiscal authority must determine the optimal provision of government services, while lacking credibility, lump-sum taxes, and the ability to bond finance deficits. Households and the fiscal authority have risk sensitive preferences. We find that outcomes are affected importantly by the household's risk sensitivity, but not by the fiscal authority's. Further, while household risk-sensitivity induces a strong precautionary saving motive, which raises capital and lowers the return on assets, its effects on fluctuations and the business cycle are generally small, although more pronounced for negative shocks. Holding the stochastic steady state constant, increases in household risk-sensitivity lower the risk-free rate and raise the return on equity, increasing the equity premium. Finally, although risk-sensitivity has little effect on the provision of government services, it does cause the fiscal authority to lower the income tax rate. An additional contribution of this paper is to present a method for computing Markov-perfect equilibria in models where private agents and the government are risk-sensitive decisionmakers.

Policy Labels and Investment Decision-making

Much attention in recent years has turned to the potential of behavioural insights to improve the performance of government policy. One behavioural concept of interest is the effect of a cash transfer label on how the transfer is spent. The Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) is a labelled cash transfer to offset the costs of keeping older households warm in the winter. Previous research has shown that households spend a higher proportion of the WFP on energy expenditures due to its label (Beatty et al., 2011). If households interpret the WFP as money for their energy bills, it may reduce their willingness to undertake investments which help achieving the same goal, such as the adoption of renewable energy technologies. In this paper we show that the WFP has distortionary effects on the renewable technology market. Using the sharp eligibility criteria of the WFP in a Regression Discontinuity Design, this analysis finds a reduction in the propensity to install renewable energy technologies of around 2.7 percentage points due to the WFP. This is a considerable number. It implies that 62% of households (whose oldest member turns 60) would have invested in renewable energy but refrain to do so after receiving the WFP. This analysis suggests that the labelling effect spreads to products related to the labelled good. In this case, households use too much energy from sources which generate pollution and too little from relatively cleaner technologies.

International Aid to Tanzania – with some comparisons from Ghana and Uganda

This paper has three principal objectives. First, to review the level of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Tanzania over the last two to three decades, and to place this into an economic context. This review includes some comparisons with the experience of Ghana and Uganda. Second, to discuss three major issues for the Tanzanian aid: the position of ODA as budget support, corruption, and alignment with the principles of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. Third, to review the literature on the Tanzanian aid experience, including a range of official evaluation reports produced by the Tanzanian government and by the donor community. The conclusions, broadly, are that ODA has been at a sustained high level for most of the period reviewed, funding a significant amount of government development expenditure, and that economic growth has been strong, with poverty reduction ‘flat-lining’ in Tanzania but being significant in Ghana and Uganda. Experience with budget support in Tanzania has been mixed, corruption continues as a major concern, and improvements to public finance management have been difficult to achieve. In this context governance adjustments come slowly, requiring patience on the part of both recipient governments and the ODA donor community.

Inter-regional redistribution through infrastructure investment: tactical or programmatic?

In this paper we analyze the effects of both tactical and programmatic politics on the inter-regional allocation of infrastructure investment. We use a panel of data for the Spanish electoral districts during the period 1964-2004 to estimate an equation where investment depends both on economic and political variables. The results show that tactical politics do matter since, after controlling for economic traits, the districts with more ‘Political power’ still receive more investment. These districts are those where the incumbents’ Vote margin of victory/ defeat in the past election is low, where the Marginal seat price is low, where there is Partisan alignment between the executives at the central and regional layers of government, and where there are Pivotal regional parties which are influential in the formation of the central executive. However, the results also show that programmatic politics matter, since inter-regional redistribution (measured as the elasticity of investment to per capita income) is shown to increase with the arrival of the Democracy and EU Funds, with Left governments, and to decrease the higher is the correlation between a measure of ‘Political power’ and per capita income.

Environmental factors and social entrepreneurship

Social entrepreneurship has been a subject of growing interest by academics and governments, however little still being known about environmental factors that affect this phenomenon. The main objective of this study is to analyze how these factors affect social entrepreneurial activity, in the light of the institutional economic theory as the conceptual framework. Using linear regression analysis for a sample of 49 countries, is studied the impact of informal institutions (social needs, societal attitudes and education) and formal institutions (public spending, access to finance and governance effectiveness) on social entrepreneurial activity. The findings suggest that while societal attitudes increase the rates of social entrepreneurship, public spending has a negative relationship with this phenomenon. Finally, the empirical evidence found could be useful for the definition of government policies on promoting social entrepreneurship.

IPH response to DSD Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework Consultation

The Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework for Northern Ireland sets out for DSD and its partners, clear priorities for urban regeneration and community development programmes, both before and after the operational responsibility for these is transferred to councils under the reform of local government. Four policy objectives have been developed, which will focus on the underlying structural problems in urban areas and also help strengthen community development throughout Northern Ireland. The policy objectives are as follows: Policy Objective 1 – To tackle area-based deprivation: Policy Objective 2 – To strengthen the competitiveness of our towns and cities: Policy Objective 3 – To improve linkages between areas of need and areas of opportunity: and Policy Objective 4 –To develop more cohesive and engaged communities. Key points from IPH response Urban regeneration and community development provide a basis for addressing the social determinants of health and reducing inequalities in health. This policy framework presents an opportunity for coherence and complementarity with ‘Fit and Well - Changing Lives’ as part of government’s overall approach to tackling health inequalities. It is now well established that a focus on early years’ interventions and family support services yields significant returns, so prioritising action in these areas is essential. Defined action plans on child poverty are essential if this policy framework is to make a real and lasting difference in deprived urban areas. Development of the environmental infrastructure to improve health in deprived areas should be supported by well-planned monitoring and evaluation. Linking the policy framework to economic development and local community plans will enhance effectiveness in the areas of education, job creation, commercial investment and access to services, which in turn are critical for the economic growth and stability of urban communities. Community profile data and health intelligence (as available through IPH Health Well) could usefully inform central and local government in terms of resource allocation and targeted service delivery.

Regulatory federalism in network industries

Report for the scientific sojourn at the UC Berkeley, USA, from march until july 2008. This document starts by surveying the literature on economic federalism and relating it to network industries. The insights and some new developments (which focus on the role of interjurisdictional externalities, multiple objectives and investment incentives) are used to analyze regulatory arrangements in telecommunications and energy in the EU and the US. In the long history of vertically integrated monopolies in telecommunications and energy, there was a historical trend to move regulation up in the vertical structure of government, at least form the local level to the state or nation-state level. This move alleviated the pressure on regulators to renege on the commitment not to expropriate sunk investments, although it did not eliminate the practice of taxation by regulation that was the result of multiple interest group action. Although central or federal policy making is more focused and especialized and makes it difficult for more interest groups to organize, it is not clear that under all conditions central powers will not be associated with underinvestment. When technology makes the introduction of competition in some segments possible, the possibilities for organizing the institutional architechture of regulation expand. The central level may focus on structural regulation and the location of behavioral regulation of the remaining monopolists may be resolved in a cooperative way or concentrated at the level where the relevant spillovers are internalized.

Más allá de una distinción dicotómica del apoyo a la democracia: diversos perfiles de no demócratas

El apoyo ciudadano a la democracia constituye un requisito fundamental de los modernos regímenes democráticos, tanto respecto de su estabilidad y consolidación como de la calidad de su funcionamiento. En este marco, la legitimidad democrática pertenece a la dimensión de creencias ciudadanas respecto de que la democracia y sus instituciones son las más apropiadas (de hecho, las únicas aceptables) como régimen de gobierno. Sin perjuicio de lo anterior, no todos los ciudadanos expresan este conjunto de actitudes positivas hacia el régimen democrático. En gran parte de las nuevas democracias un número considerable de personas o bien no entregan un apoyo abierto a la democracia o, expresan actitudes contradictorias hacia los regímenes democráticos. Este grupo de individuos ha sido normalmente tratado por la literatura como un solo grupo homogéneo, que responde sin más consideraciones a la etiqueta de “no demócratas”. Sin embargo, tal como esta investigación pretende demostrar, existen razones teóricas y empíricas para esperar que no haya un único perfil de ciudadanos que no apoya la democracia. Por el contrario, sería posible encontrar y analizar diversos perfiles de “no demócratas”, que explican sus diferencias de acuerdo a distintas objeciones hacia la democracia. Esto es, las razones que se tienen para no entregar un apoyo difuso a la democracia no serían las mismas en todos los casos. De esta forma se derivan las siguientes preguntas de investigación: ¿Cuáles son los argumentos teóricos y empíricos que permiten distinguir diversos tipos de “no demócratas”? ¿Cuáles son las distintas objeciones hacia la democracia (razones) que configuran estos perfiles diversos? Sin embargo, no basta con responder sólo a estas preguntas. Es necesario avanzar en esta línea argumental, preguntándose respecto de la relevancia de distinguir distintos perfiles de “no demócratas”. Así, surge una tercera pregunta: ¿Bajo qué circunstancias tiene relevancia efectuar una distinción entre quienes no apoyan la democracia?

National Council on Ageing and Older People - Annual Report 2008

National Council on Ageing and Older People РAnnual Report 2008 2008 was a year of change for the National Council on Ageing and Older People. In January the Government announced the establishment of the Office for Older People at the Department of Health and Children and that the Office would have a key role in progressing the Government̢?Ts agenda for older people. The decision provided that Council staff would be transferred to the Office and that the Council would be replaced by an Advisory Council. Although a sad day for the Council itself, we regard this as a significant step forward in bringing older people̢?Ts issues right to the centre of Government policy-making. Click here to download PDF 333kb

National Carers' Strategy

A key objective of Government policy for older people, children and adults with an illness or a disability is to support them to live in dignity and independence in their own homes and communities for as long as possible. Carers are vital to the achievement of this objective and are considered a backbone of care provision in Ireland. Click here to download PDF 1.8mb

National Positive Ageing Strategy

The Programme for Government committed to completing and implementing the National Positive Ageing Strategy so that older people are recognised, supported and enabled to live independent full lives. This Strategy, which was published in April 2013, is a new departure in policy making for older people given its focus on the broader determinants of health. It is the blueprint for age related policy and service delivery in Ireland, outlining a vision for positive ageing and older people, the national goals and objectives required to achieve this vision and a suite of priority areas for action that are based on the broader determinants of health. Therefore, a whole of Government and whole of society approach will be required to implement the National Positive Ageing Strategy and to address these priority action areas. Click here to download PDF 2.49MB  

Healthy Ireland - A Framework for Improved Health and Wellbeing 2013 - 2025

Healthy Ireland is a new national framework for action to improve the health and wellbeing of our country over the coming generation. Based on international evidence, it outlines a new commitment to public health with a considerable emphasis on prevention, while at the same time advocating for stronger health systems. It provides for new arrangements to ensure effective co-operation between the health sector and other areas of Government and public services, concerned with social protection, children, business, food safety, education, housing, transport and the environment. It also invites the private and voluntary sector to participate through well-supported and mutually beneficial partnerships. It sets out four central goals and outlines actions under 6 thematic areas, in which all people and all parts of society can participate to achieve these goals. Click here to download PDF 4.72MB

Los efectos sobre el medio ambiente en las nuevas democracias, las dictaduras y las democracias tradicionales

El principal objeto de esta investigación es determinar y evaluar si la evolución o transición hacia formas cerradas o abiertas de gobernar -autocracias y democracias- ha llevado aparejada una menor o mayor contribución a la calidad del medio ambiente. La conclusión es clara, los nuevos gobiernos democráticos tienen más probabilidades de responder a los intereses medioambientales y, por lo tanto, son más propensos a respaldar las convenciones internacionales que las autocracias.