Globally synchronous climate change 2800 years ago: Proxy data from peat in South America

Initial findings from high-latitude ice-cores implied a relatively unvarying Holocene climate, in contrast to the major climate swings in the preceding late-Pleistocene. However, several climate archives from low latitudes imply a less than equable Holocene climate, as do recent studies on peat bogs in mainland north-west Europe, which indicate an abrupt climate cooling 2800 years ago, with parallels claimed in a range of climate archives elsewhere. A hypothesis that this claimed climate shift was global, and caused by reduced solar activity, has recently been disputed. Until now, no directly comparable data were available from the southern hemisphere to help resolve the dispute. Building on investigations of the vegetation history of an extensive mire in the Valle de Andorra, Tierra del Fuego, we took a further peat core from the bog to generate a high-resolution climate history through the use of determination of peat hurnification and quantitative leaf-count plant macrofossil analysis. Here, we present the new proxy-climate data from the bog in South America. The data are directly comparable with those in Europe, as they were produced using identical laboratory methods. They show that there was a major climate perturbation at the same time as in northwest European bogs. Its timinia, nature and apparent global synchronicity lend support to the notion of solar forcing of past climate change, amplified by oceanic circulation. This finding of a similar response simultaneously in both hemispheres may help validate and improve global climate models. That reduced solar activity might cause a global climatic change suggests that attention be paid also to consideration of any global climate response to increases in solar activity. This has implications for interpreting the relative contribution of climate drivers of recent 'global warming'. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeoclimate change recorded in Upper Cretaceous (Albian-Cenomanian) Kazhdumi Formation Borehole spectral Gamma-Ray Logs, South Pars Gas field, Persian Gulf

Th/U and Th/K data from spectral gamma-ray logs obtained from outcrop successions have been used as a rapid and inexpensive proxy for determining possible episodes of humid-arid palaeoclimate change. Such outcrop-based measurements have never been tested using spectral gamma-ray data obtained from wireline logs in subsurface boreholes. Th/K and Th/U ratios have traditionally been used to decipher sequence stratigraphic patterns, at outcrop and in borehole. The possible influence of palaeoclimate on such ratio changes has yet to be proven, especially from borehole data. In this work, we compare borehole-derived Th/K (and to a lesser extent Th/U) to palaeoenvironmental changes inferred from palynology and deduce that both sea level and changing hinterland weathering regimes caused discrete fluctuations observed in the spectral gamma-ray logs. This is the first time such subsurface information has been used in this way. Interpretation of wireline logs in terms of palaeoclimate as well as sea level may now be considered, and the use of such logs in palaeoclimate reconstruction is strengthened.

Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g. Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Best of the old alongside the new: training for part-time youth workers

Set against the dearth of published research into the effectiveness of youth leadership training programmes, the present study describes how a comprehensive evaluation model was utilised to evaluate one such programme in Northern Ireland over a 3-year period. The training welds together a traditional curriculum approach and a competence-based methodology to provide an integrated experience for the part-time youth worker participants (n = 128). Self-completion questionnaires and follow-up interviews with a random sample of these youth workers and their supervisors were used to collect data. Outcomes suggest that the synthesis of these two training strategies is not only effective in meeting the learning needs of youth workers, but also leads to identifiable improvements in the range and quality of youth work programmes available to young people

A commentary on climate change, stone decay dynamics and the ‘greening’ of natural stone buildings: new perspectives on ‘deep wetting’

Environmental controls on stone decay processes are rapidly changing as a result of changing climate. UKCP09 projections for the 2020s (2010–2039) indicate that over much of the UK seasonality of precipitation will increase. Summer dryness and winter wetness are both set to increase, the latter linked to projected precipitation increases in autumn and spring months. If so, this could increase the time that stone structures remain wet and possibly the depth of moisture penetration, and it appears that building stone in Northern Ireland has already responded through an increased incidence of algal ‘greening’.This paper highlights the need for understanding the effects of climate change through a series of studies of largely sandstone structures. Current and projected climatic trends are therefore considered to have aesthetic, physical and chemical implications that are not currently built into our models of sandstone decay, especially with respect to the role played by deep-seated wetness on sandstone deterioration and decay progression and the feedbacks associated with, for example surface algal growth. In particular,it is proposed that algal biofilms will aid moisture retention and further facilitate moisture and dissolved salt penetration to depth. Thus, whilst the outer surface of stone may continue to experience frequent wetting and drying associated with individual precipitation events, the latter is less likely to be complete, and the interiors of building blocks may only experience wetting/drying in response to seasonal cycling. A possible consequence of deeper salt penetration could be a delay in the onset of surface deterioration,but more rapid and effective retreat once it commences as decay mechanisms ‘tap into a reservoir of deep salt’.

Lacustrine evidence of Holocene environmental change from three Faroese lakes: a multiproxy XRF and stable isotope study

The vegetation history of the Faroe Islands has been investigated in numerous studies all broadly showing that the early-Holocene vegetation of the islands largely consisted of fellfield with gravely and rocky soils formed under a continental climate which shifted to an oceanic climate around 10,000 cal yr BP when grasses, sedges and finally shrubs began to dominant the islands. Here we present data from three lake sediment cores and show a much more detailed history from geochemical and isotope data. These data show that the Faroe Islands were deglaciated by the end of Younger Dryas (11,700 10,300 cal yr BP), at this time relatively high sedimentation rates with high delta C-13 imply poor soil development. delta C-13, Ti and chi data reveal a much more stable and warm mid-Holocene until 7410 cal yr BP characterised by increasing vegetation cover and build up of organic soils towards the Holocene thermal maximum around 7400 cal yr BP. The final meltdown of the Laurentide ice sheet around 7000 cal yr BP appears to have impacted both ocean and atmospheric circulation towards colder conditions on the Faroe Islands. This is inferred by enhanced weathering and increased deposition of surplus sulphur (sea spray) and erosion in the highland lakes from about 7400 cal yr BP. From 4190 cal yr BP further cooling is believed to have occurred as a consequence for increased soil erosion due to freeze/thaw sequences related to oceanic and atmospheric variability. This cooling trend appears to have advanced further from 3000 cal yr BR A short period around 1800 cal yr BP appears as a short warm and wet phase in between a general cooling characterised by significant soil erosion lasting until 725 cal yr BP. Interestingly, increased soil erosion seems to have begun at 1360 cal yr BP, thus significantly before the arrival of the first settlers on the Faroe Island around 1150 cal yr BP, although additional erosion took place around 1200 cal yr BP possibly as a consequence of human activities. Hence it appears that if humans caused a change in the Faroe landscape in terms of erosion they in fact accelerated a process that had already started. Soil erosion was a dominant landscape factor during the Little Ice Age, but climate related triggers can hardly be distinguished from human activities. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient Evaluation of Multidimensional Time-Varying Density Forecasts

We propose two simple evaluation methods for time varying density forecasts of continuous higher dimensional random variables. Both methods are based on the probability integral transformation for unidimensional forecasts. The first method tests multinormal densities and relies on the rotation of the coordinate system. The advantage of the second method is not only its applicability to any continuous distribution but also the evaluation of the forecast accuracy in specific regions of its domain as defined by the user’s interest. We show that the latter property is particularly useful for evaluating a multidimensional generalization of the Value at Risk. In simulations and in an empirical study, we examine the performance of both tests.

Animal-borne sensors successfully capture the real-time thermal properties of ocean basins

Climate change is perhaps the most pressing and urgent environmental issue facing the world today. However our ability to predict and quantify the consequences of this change is severely limited by the paucity of in situ oceanographic measurements. Marine animals equipped with sophisticated oceanographic data loggers to study their behavior offer one solution to this problem because marine animals range widely across the world's ocean basins and visit remote and often inaccessible locations. However, unlike the information being collected from conventional oceanographic sensing equipment, which has been validated, the data collected from instruments deployed on marine animals over long periods has not. This is the first long-term study to validate in situ oceanographic data collected by animal oceanographers. We compared the ocean temperatures collected by leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic Ocean with the ARGO network of ocean floats and could find no systematic errors that could be ascribed to sensor instability. Animal-borne sensors allowed water temperature to be monitored across a range of depths, over entire ocean basins, and, importantly, over long periods and so will play a key role in assessing global climate change through improved monitoring of global temperatures. This finding is especially pertinent given recent international calls for the development and implementation of a comprehensive Earth observation system ( see http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/documents.asp?s=review) that includes the use of novel techniques for monitoring and understanding ocean and climate interactions to address strategic environmental and societal needs.

NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

Rise time and formant transition duration in the discrimination of speech sounds: The Ba–Wa distinction in developmental dyslexia

Across languages, children with developmental dyslexia have a specific difficulty with the neural representation of the sound structure (phonological structure) of speech. One likely cause of their difficulties with phonology is a perceptual difficulty in auditory temporal processing (Tallal, 1980). Tallal (1980) proposed that basic auditory processing of brief, rapidly successive acoustic changes is compromised in dyslexia, thereby affecting phonetic discrimination (e.g. discriminating /b/ from /d/) via impaired discrimination of formant transitions (rapid acoustic changes in frequency and intensity). However, an alternative auditory temporal hypothesis is that the basic auditory processing of the slower amplitude modulation cues in speech is compromised (Goswami , 2002). Here, we contrast children's perception of a synthetic speech contrast (ba/wa) when it is based on the speed of the rate of change of frequency information (formant transition duration) versus the speed of the rate of change of amplitude modulation (rise time). We show that children with dyslexia have excellent phonetic discrimination based on formant transition duration, but poor phonetic discrimination based on envelope cues. The results explain why phonetic discrimination may be allophonic in developmental dyslexia (Serniclaes , 2004), and suggest new avenues for the remediation of developmental dyslexia. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Late Holocene climate change in central Sweden inferred from lacustrine stable isotope data

Stable isotopes (delta O-18 and delta C-13) of lacustrine carbonates (Chara spp. algae and Pisidium spp. molluscs) from a lake sedimentary sequence in central Sweden were analysed to infer changes in lake hydrology and climate during the late Holocene. Results from analysis of lake water isotopes (delta O-18 and delta H-2) show that Lake Blektjarnen water isotope composition is responsive to the balance between evaporation and input water (E/l ratio). A high E/l ratio results from a dry and probably warmer climate, decreasing the relative importance of precipitation input. Under such conditions evaporation and atmospheric equilibration probably enrich lake water in O-18 and C-13, respectively, which is reflected in the isotopic composition of the carbonates in the lake. From the relatively positive Chara delta O-18 values we infer that conditions were dry and warm between 4400 and 4000 cal. a BP, whereas more negative values indicate that conditions were wetter and probably cooler between 4000 and 3000 cal. a BP. A drier climate is inferred from more positive values between 2500 and 1000 cal. a BP. However, a successive depletion after ca. 1750 cal. a BP, also detected in several other delta O-18 records (carbonate and diatom), suggest increasingly wetter conditions in Scandinavia after that time, which is probably related to increased strength of the zonal flow.

Accounting change: Explaining the outcomes, interpreting the process

Purpose: The issue of accounting change, why and how accounting evolves through time and within specific organisational settings, has been addressed by an important body of literature. This paper aims to explain why, in processes of accounting change, organisations confronting similar environmental pressures show different outcomes of change.

Design/methodology/approach: Drawing on archetype theory, the paper analyses the case of two Italian local governments. Comparative case studies were carried out, reconstructing a period of 15 years.

Findings: Although confronted with similar environmental pressures, the two cases show two different patterns of accounting change, where only one case is able to finally reach radical change. Accounting change can be prompted by external stimuli, but, once the change is prompted, the outcomes of the change are explained by the dynamics of intra-organisational conditions.

Originality/value: The study contributes to accounting change literature by adopting an approach (i.e. archetype theory) that overcomes some of the limitations of previous studies in explaining variations in organisational change. Through this, the authors are able to explain different outcomes and paces of accounting change and point out the intra-organisational factors also affecting them in the presence of similar environmental pressures. A specification of the theoretical framework in a particular setting is also provided.

Increasing entanglement through engineered disorder in the random Ising chain

The ground-state entanglement entropy between block of sites in the random Ising chain is studied by means of the Von Neumann entropy. We show that in presence of strong correlations between the disordered couplings and local magnetic fields the entanglement increases and becomes larger than in the ordered case. The different behavior with respect to the uncorrelated disordered model is due to the drastic change of the ground state properties. The same result holds also for the random three-state quantum Potts model.

The pace of Holocene vegetation change - testing for synchronous developments

Mid to high latitude forest ecosystems have undergone several major compositional changes during the Holocene. The temporal and spatial patterns of these vegetation changes hold potential information to their causes and triggers. Here we test the hypothesis that the timing of vegetation change was synchronous on a sub-continental scale, which implies a common trigger or a step-like change in climate parameters. Pollen diagrams from selected European regions were statistically divided into assemblage zones and the temporal pattern of the zone boundaries analysed. The results show that the temporal pattern of vegetation change was significantly different from random. Times of change cluster around8.2, 4.8, 3.7, and 1.2 ka, while times of higher than average stability were found around 2.1 and 5.1 ka.Compositional changes linked to the expansion of Corylus avellana and Alnus glutinosa centre around 10.6 and 9.5 ka, respectively. A climatic trigger initiating these changes may have occurred 0.5 to 1 ka earlier, respectively. The synchronous expansion of C. avellana and A. glutinosa exemplify that dispersal is not necessarily followed by population expansion. The partly synchronous, partly random expansion of A. glutinosa in adjacent European regions exemplifies that sudden synchronous population expansions are not species specific traits but vary regionally.

Population dynamics of the liver fluke, Fasciola hepatica: the effect of time and spatial separation on the genetic diversity of fluke populations in the Netherlands

An evaluation of the genetic diversity within Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) may provide an insight into its potential to respond to environmental changes, such as anthelmintic use or climate change. In this study, we determined the mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of >400 flukes from 29 individual cattle, from 2 farms in the Netherlands, as an exemplar of fasciolosis in a European context. Analysis of this dataset has provided us with a measure of the genetic variation within infrapopulations (individual hosts) and the diversity between infrapopulations within a herd of cattle. Temporal sampling from one farm allowed for the measurement of the stability of genetic variation at a single location, whilst the comparison between the two farms provided information on the variation in relation to distance and previous anthelmintic regimes. We showed that the liver fluke population in this region is predominantly linked to 2 distinct clades. Individual infrapopulations contain a leptokurtic distribution of genetically diverse flukes. The haplotypes present on a farm have been shown to change significantly over a relatively short time-period.