Kernel-based mapping of orographic rainfall enhancement in the Swiss Alps as detected by weatherradar

In this paper, we develop a data-driven methodology to characterize the likelihood of orographic precipitation enhancement using sequences of weather radar images and a digital elevation model (DEM). Geographical locations with topographic characteristics favorable to enforce repeatable and persistent orographic precipitation such as stationary cells, upslope rainfall enhancement, and repeated convective initiation are detected by analyzing the spatial distribution of a set of precipitation cells extracted from radar imagery. Topographic features such as terrain convexity and gradients computed from the DEM at multiple spatial scales as well as velocity fields estimated from sequences of weather radar images are used as explanatory factors to describe the occurrence of localized precipitation enhancement. The latter is represented as a binary process by defining a threshold on the number of cell occurrences at particular locations. Both two-class and one-class support vector machine classifiers are tested to separate the presumed orographic cells from the nonorographic ones in the space of contributing topographic and flow features. Site-based validation is carried out to estimate realistic generalization skills of the obtained spatial prediction models. Due to the high class separability, the decision function of the classifiers can be interpreted as a likelihood or susceptibility of orographic precipitation enhancement. The developed approach can serve as a basis for refining radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates and short-term forecasts or for generating stochastic precipitation ensembles conditioned on the local topography.

Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor) of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

Budgeting rockfall and modeling sedimentary delivery in torrent systems

This thesis is a compilation of projects to study sediment processes recharging debris flow channels. These works, conducted during my stay at the University of Lausanne, focus in the geological and morphological implications of torrent catchments to characterize debris supply, a fundamental element to predict debris flows. Other aspects of sediment dynamics are considered, e.g. the coupling headwaters - torrent, as well as the development of a modeling software that simulates sediment transfer in torrent systems. The sediment activity at Manival, an active torrent system of the northern French Alps, was investigated using terrestrial laser scanning and supplemented with geostructural investigations and a survey of sediment transferred in the main torrent. A full year of sediment flux could be observed, which coincided with two debris flows and several bedload transport events. This study revealed that both debris flows generated in the torrent and were preceded in time by recharge of material from the headwaters. Debris production occurred mostly during winter - early spring time and was caused by large slope failures. Sediment transfers were more puzzling, occurring almost exclusively in early spring subordinated to runoffconditions and in autumn during long rainfall. Intense rainstorms in summer did not affect debris storage that seems to rely on the stability of debris deposits. The morpho-geological implication in debris supply was evaluated using DEM and field surveys. A slope angle-based classification of topography could characterize the mode of debris production and transfer. A slope stability analysis derived from the structures in rock mass could assess susceptibility to failure. The modeled rockfall source areas included more than 97% of the recorded events and the sediment budgets appeared to be correlated to the density of potential slope failure. This work showed that the analysis of process-related terrain morphology and of susceptibility to slope failure document the sediment dynamics to quantitatively assess erosion zones leading to debris flow activity. The development of erosional landforms was evaluated by analyzing their geometry with the orientations of potential rock slope failure and with the direction of the maximum joint frequency. Structure in rock mass, but in particular wedge failure and the dominant discontinuities, appear as a first-order control of erosional mechanisms affecting bedrock- dominated catchment. They represent some weaknesses that are exploited primarily by mass wasting processes and erosion, promoting not only the initiation of rock couloirs and gullies, but also their propagation. Incorporating the geological control in geomorphic processes contributes to better understand the landscape evolution of active catchments. A sediment flux algorithm was implemented in a sediment cascade model that discretizes the torrent catchment in channel reaches and individual process-response systems. Each conceptual element includes in simple manner geomorphological and sediment flux information derived from GIS complemented with field mapping. This tool enables to simulate sediment transfers in channels considering evolving debris supply and conveyance, and helps reducing the uncertainty inherent to sediment budget prediction in torrent systems. Cette thèse est un recueil de projets d'études des processus de recharges sédimentaires des chenaux torrentiels. Ces travaux, réalisés lorsque j'étais employé à l'Université de Lausanne, se concentrent sur les implications géologiques et morphologiques des bassins dans l'apport de sédiments, élément fondamental dans la prédiction de laves torrentielles. D'autres aspects de dynamique sédimentaire ont été abordés, p. ex. le couplage torrent - bassin, ainsi qu'un modèle de simulation du transfert sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel. L'activité sédimentaire du Manival, un système torrentiel actif des Alpes françaises, a été étudiée par relevés au laser scanner terrestre et complétée par une étude géostructurale ainsi qu'un suivi du transfert en sédiments du torrent. Une année de flux sédimentaire a pu être observée, coïncidant avec deux laves torrentielles et plusieurs phénomènes de charriages. Cette étude a révélé que les laves s'étaient générées dans le torrent et étaient précédées par une recharge de débris depuis les versants. La production de débris s'est passée principalement en l'hiver - début du printemps, causée par de grandes ruptures de pentes. Le transfert était plus étrange, se produisant presque exclusivement au début du printemps subordonné aux conditions d'écoulement et en automne lors de longues pluies. Les orages d'été n'affectèrent guère les dépôts, qui semblent dépendre de leur stabilité. Les implications morpho-géologiques dans l'apport sédimentaire ont été évaluées à l'aide de MNT et études de terrain. Une classification de la topographie basée sur la pente a permis de charactériser le mode de production et transfert. Une analyse de stabilité de pente à partir des structures de roches a permis d'estimer la susceptibilité à la rupture. Les zones sources modélisées comprennent plus de 97% des chutes de blocs observées et les bilans sédimentaires sont corrélés à la densité de ruptures potentielles. Ce travail d'analyses des morphologies du terrain et de susceptibilité à la rupture documente la dynamique sédimentaire pour l'estimation quantitative des zones érosives induisant l'activité torrentielle. Le développement des formes d'érosion a été évalué par l'analyse de leur géométrie avec celle des ruptures potentielles et avec la direction de la fréquence maximale des joints. Les structures de roches, mais en particulier les dièdres et les discontinuités dominantes, semblent être très influents dans les mécanismes d'érosion affectant les bassins rocheux. Ils représentent des zones de faiblesse exploitées en priorité par les processus de démantèlement et d'érosion, encourageant l'initiation de ravines et couloirs, mais aussi leur propagation. L'incorporation du control géologique dans les processus de surface contribue à une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution topographique de bassins actifs. Un algorithme de flux sédimentaire a été implémenté dans un modèle en cascade, lequel divise le bassin en biefs et en systèmes individuels répondant aux processus. Chaque unité inclut de façon simple les informations géomorpologiques et celles du flux sédimentaire dérivées à partir de SIG et de cartographie de terrain. Cet outil permet la simulation des transferts de masse dans les chenaux, considérants la variabilité de l'apport et son transport, et aide à réduire l'incertitude liée à la prédiction de bilans sédimentaires torrentiels. Ce travail vise très humblement d'éclairer quelques aspects de la dynamique sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel.

Advanced Kernel Methods For Remote Sensing Image Classification

Résumé Suite aux recentes avancées technologiques, les archives d'images digitales ont connu une croissance qualitative et quantitative sans précédent. Malgré les énormes possibilités qu'elles offrent, ces avancées posent de nouvelles questions quant au traitement des masses de données saisies. Cette question est à la base de cette Thèse: les problèmes de traitement d'information digitale à très haute résolution spatiale et/ou spectrale y sont considérés en recourant à des approches d'apprentissage statistique, les méthodes à noyau. Cette Thèse étudie des problèmes de classification d'images, c'est à dire de catégorisation de pixels en un nombre réduit de classes refletant les propriétés spectrales et contextuelles des objets qu'elles représentent. L'accent est mis sur l'efficience des algorithmes, ainsi que sur leur simplicité, de manière à augmenter leur potentiel d'implementation pour les utilisateurs. De plus, le défi de cette Thèse est de rester proche des problèmes concrets des utilisateurs d'images satellite sans pour autant perdre de vue l'intéret des méthodes proposées pour le milieu du machine learning dont elles sont issues. En ce sens, ce travail joue la carte de la transdisciplinarité en maintenant un lien fort entre les deux sciences dans tous les développements proposés. Quatre modèles sont proposés: le premier répond au problème de la haute dimensionalité et de la redondance des données par un modèle optimisant les performances en classification en s'adaptant aux particularités de l'image. Ceci est rendu possible par un système de ranking des variables (les bandes) qui est optimisé en même temps que le modèle de base: ce faisant, seules les variables importantes pour résoudre le problème sont utilisées par le classifieur. Le manque d'information étiquétée et l'incertitude quant à sa pertinence pour le problème sont à la source des deux modèles suivants, basés respectivement sur l'apprentissage actif et les méthodes semi-supervisées: le premier permet d'améliorer la qualité d'un ensemble d'entraînement par interaction directe entre l'utilisateur et la machine, alors que le deuxième utilise les pixels non étiquetés pour améliorer la description des données disponibles et la robustesse du modèle. Enfin, le dernier modèle proposé considère la question plus théorique de la structure entre les outputs: l'intègration de cette source d'information, jusqu'à présent jamais considérée en télédétection, ouvre des nouveaux défis de recherche. Advanced kernel methods for remote sensing image classification Devis Tuia Institut de Géomatique et d'Analyse du Risque September 2009 Abstract The technical developments in recent years have brought the quantity and quality of digital information to an unprecedented level, as enormous archives of satellite images are available to the users. However, even if these advances open more and more possibilities in the use of digital imagery, they also rise several problems of storage and treatment. The latter is considered in this Thesis: the processing of very high spatial and spectral resolution images is treated with approaches based on data-driven algorithms relying on kernel methods. In particular, the problem of image classification, i.e. the categorization of the image's pixels into a reduced number of classes reflecting spectral and contextual properties, is studied through the different models presented. The accent is put on algorithmic efficiency and the simplicity of the approaches proposed, to avoid too complex models that would not be used by users. The major challenge of the Thesis is to remain close to concrete remote sensing problems, without losing the methodological interest from the machine learning viewpoint: in this sense, this work aims at building a bridge between the machine learning and remote sensing communities and all the models proposed have been developed keeping in mind the need for such a synergy. Four models are proposed: first, an adaptive model learning the relevant image features has been proposed to solve the problem of high dimensionality and collinearity of the image features. This model provides automatically an accurate classifier and a ranking of the relevance of the single features. The scarcity and unreliability of labeled. information were the common root of the second and third models proposed: when confronted to such problems, the user can either construct the labeled set iteratively by direct interaction with the machine or use the unlabeled data to increase robustness and quality of the description of data. Both solutions have been explored resulting into two methodological contributions, based respectively on active learning and semisupervised learning. Finally, the more theoretical issue of structured outputs has been considered in the last model, which, by integrating outputs similarity into a model, opens new challenges and opportunities for remote sensing image processing.

Prognostic relevance of Masaoka and Müller-Hermelink classification in patients with thymic tumors.

BACKGROUND: To compare the prognostic relevance of Masaoka and Müller-Hermelink classifications. METHODS: We treated 71 patients with thymic tumors at our institution between 1980 and 1997. Complete follow-up was achieved in 69 patients (97%) with a mean follow up-time of 8.3 years (range, 9 months to 17 years). RESULTS: Masaoka stage I was found in 31 patients (44.9%), stage II in 17 (24.6%), stage III in 19 (27.6%), and stage IV in 2 (2.9%). The 10-year overall survival rate was 83.5% for stage I, 100% for stage IIa, 58% for stage IIb, 44% for stage III, and 0% for stage IV. The disease-free survival rates were 100%, 70%, 40%, 38%, and 0%, respectively. Histologic classification according to Müller-Hermelink found medullary tumors in 7 patients (10.1%), mixed in 18 (26.1%), organoid in 14 (20.3%), cortical in 11 (15.9%), well-differentiated thymic carcinoma in 14 (20.3%), and endocrine carcinoma in 5 (7.3%), with 10-year overall survival rates of 100%, 75%, 92%, 87.5%, 30%, and 0%, respectively, and 10-year disease-free survival rates of 100%, 100%, 77%, 75%, 37%, and 0%, respectively. Medullary, mixed, and well-differentiated organoid tumors were correlated with stage I and II, and well-differentiated thymic carcinoma and endocrine carcinoma with stage III and IV (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed age, gender, myasthenia gravis, and postoperative adjuvant therapy not to be significant predictors of overall and disease-free survival after complete resection, whereas the Müller-Hermelink and Masaoka classifications were independent significant predictors for overall (p < 0.05) and disease-free survival (p < 0.004; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The consideration of staging and histology in thymic tumors has the potential to improve recurrence prediction and patient selection for combined treatment modalities.

Genesis, Characterization, and Classification of Mangrove Soils in the Subaé River Basin, Bahia, Brazil

ABSTRACT Preservation of mangroves, a very significant ecosystem from a social, economic, and environmental viewpoint, requires knowledge on soil composition, genesis, morphology, and classification. These aspects are of paramount importance to understand the dynamics of sustainability and preservation of this natural resource. In this study mangrove soils in the Subaé river basin were described and classified and inorganic waste concentrations evaluated. Seven pedons of mangrove soil were chosen, five under fluvial influence and two under marine influence and analyzed for morphology. Samples of horizons and layers were collected for physical and chemical analyses, including heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Mn, Zn, and Fe). The moist soils were suboxidic, with Eh values below 350 mV. The pH level of the pedons under fluvial influence ranged from moderately acid to alkaline, while the pH in pedons under marine influence was around 7.0 throughout the profile. The concentration of cations in the sorting complex for all pedons, independent of fluvial or marine influence, indicated the following order: Na+>Mg2+>Ca2+>K+. Mangrove soils from the Subaé river basin under fluvial and marine influence had different morphological, physical, and chemical characteristics. The highest Pb and Cd concentrations were found in the pedons under fluvial influence, perhaps due to their closeness to the mining company Plumbum, while the concentrations in pedon P7 were lowest, due to greater distance from the factory. For containing at least one metal above the reference levels established by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States Environmental Protection Agency), the pedons were classified as potentially toxic. The soils were classified as Gleissolos Tiomórficos Órticos (sálicos) sódico neofluvissólico in according to the Brazilian Soil Classification System, indicating potential toxicity and very poor drainage, except for pedon P7, which was classified in the same subgroup as the others, but different in that the metal concentrations met acceptable standards.

Inmate Custody Classification Study Brings Changes, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, July 2008

As part of its 2006 systemic evaluation of DOC’s facilities, operations and programming, the Durrant/PBA consulting group found several shortcomings with the Department’s inmate custody classification system. Specifically, the consultants found that the system:

Iowa System Classification for Planning Map, January 1, 2011

Map produced by Iowa Department of Transportation of System Classification.

Impact of stressful life event on the global functioning outcome after an assertive community treatment

Background: Assertive community treatment (ACT) was reported to be an effective treatment to improve global functioning of ultra-high risk (UHR) adolescents. However, the infl uence of stressful life event (SLE) was not extensively studied which represent our objective. Method: The SLE (encompassing adoption, migration, family member's deceased, sexual or physical abuse, etc.) of 20 UHR adolescents, treated with an ACT model, were rated. 10 adolescents having 0 to 1 SLE (mainly parents' divorce; low SLE group) were compared 10 adolescents with 2 to 5 SLE (high SLE group). The adolescents were assessed at baseline and after treatment with the Health of Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA). The HoNOSCA allowed rating different diffi culties such as behavior, symptoms, disorders and social. Results: First, results on the whole sample indicated signifi cant improvement after ACT (compared to baseline) on the total (P = .04), symptoms (P = .025) and social (P = .009) scores of the HoNOSCA. Second, the improvement on the HoNOSCA's score of the high SLE group were signifi cantly higher for the total (P = .016), symptoms (P = .019) and behavior (P = .033) scores compared to the low SLE group. Discussion/Conclusion: Globally, ACT seems to be an appropriate treatment to enhance global functioning and more specifi cally the social and symptoms diffi culties of UHR adolescents. Additionally, UHR adolescents with a high numbers of SLE were observed to have a better benefi t of the ACT on global, symptoms and behavioral diffi culties.

Serrated polyps of the colon: how reproducible is their classification?

For several years, the lack of consensus on definition, nomenclature, natural history, and biology of serrated polyps (SPs) of the colon has created considerable confusion among pathologists. According to the latest WHO classification, the family of SPs comprises hyperplastic polyps (HPs), sessile serrated adenomas/polyps (SSA/Ps), and traditional serrated adenomas (TSAs). The term SSA/P with dysplasia has replaced the category of mixed hyperplastic/adenomatous polyps (MPs). The present study aimed to evaluate the reproducibility of the diagnosis of SPs based on currently available diagnostic criteria and interactive consensus development. In an initial round, H&E slides of 70 cases of SPs were circulated among participating pathologists across Europe. This round was followed by a consensus discussion on diagnostic criteria. A second round was performed on the same 70 cases using the revised criteria and definitions according to the recent WHO classification. Data were evaluated for inter-observer agreement using Kappa statistics. In the initial round, for the total of 70 cases, a fair overall kappa value of 0.318 was reached, while in the second round overall kappa value improved to moderate (kappa = 0.557; p < 0.001). Overall kappa values for each diagnostic category also significantly improved in the final round, reaching 0.977 for HP, 0.912 for SSA/P, and 0.845 for TSA (p < 0.001). The diagnostic reproducibility of SPs improves when strictly defined, standardized diagnostic criteria adopted by consensus are applied.

Missouri River Flood Coordination Task Force Report, September 25, 2011

The Missouri River floods of 2011 will go down in history as the longest duration flooding event this state has seen to date. The combination of above normal snowfall in the upper Missouri River basin followed by the equivalent of nearly one year’s worth of rainfall in May created an above normal runoff situation which filled the Missouri River and the six main reservoirs within the basin. Compounding this problem was colder than normal temperatures which kept much of the snowpack in the upper basin on the ground longer into the spring, setting the stage for this historic event. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) began increasing the outflow at Gavin’s Point, near Yankton, South Dakota in May. On June 14, 2011, the outflow reached a record rate of over 160,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), over twice the previous record outflow set in 1997. This increased output from Gavin’s Point caused the Missouri River to flow out of its banks covering over 283,000 acres of land in Iowa, forcing hundreds of evacuations, damaging 255,000 acres of cropland and significantly impacting the levee system on the Missouri River basin. Over the course of the summer, approximately 64 miles of primary roads closed due to Missouri River flooding, including 54 miles of Interstate Highway. Many county secondary roads were closed by high water or overburdened due to the numerous detours and road closures in this area. As the Missouri River levels began to increase, municipalities and counties aided by State and Federal agencies began preparing for a sustained flood event. Citizens, businesses, state agencies, local governments and non‐profits made substantial preparations, in some cases expending millions of dollars on emergency protective measures to protect their facilities from the impending flood. Levee monitors detected weak spots in the levee system in all affected counties, with several levees being identified as at risk levees that could potentially fail. Of particular concern was the 28 miles of levees protecting Council Bluffs. Based on this concern, Council Bluffs prepared an evacuation plan for the approximately 30,000 residents that resided in the protected area. On May 25, 2011, Governor Branstad directed the execution of the Iowa Emergency Response Plan in accordance with Section 401 of the Stafford Act. On May 31, 2011, HSEMD Administrator, Brigadier General J. Derek Hill, formally requested the USACE to provide technical assistance and advanced measures for the communities along the Missouri River basin. On June 2, 2011 Governor Branstad issued a State of Iowa Proclamation of Disaster Emergency for Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, Pottawattamie, and Woodbury counties. The length of this flood event created a unique set of challenges for Federal, State and local entities. In many cases, these organizations were conducting response and recovery operations simultaneously. Due to the length of this entire event, the State Emergency Operations Center and the local Emergency Operations Centers remained open for an extended period of time, putting additional strain on many organizations and resources. In response to this disaster, Governor Branstad created the Missouri River Recovery Coordination Task Force to oversee the State’s recovery efforts. The Governor announced the creation of this Task Force on October 17, 2011 and appointed Brigadier General J. Derek Hill, HSEMD Administrator as the chairman. This Task Force would be a temporary group of State agency representatives and interested stakeholders brought together to support the recovery efforts of the Iowa communities impacted by the Missouri River Flood. Collectively, this group would analyze and share damage assessment data, coordinate assistance across various stakeholders, monitor progress, capture best practices and identify lessons learned.