Statistical Methods and the Meaning of Probabilities. A Philosopher Looks at Statistics

The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.

Limit theorems for nondegenerate U-statistics of continuous semimartingales

This paper presents the asymptotic theory for nondegenerate U-statistics of high frequency observations of continuous Itô semimartingales. We prove uniform convergence in probability and show a functional stable central limit theorem for the standardized version of the U-statistic. The limiting process in the central limit theorem turns out to be conditionally Gaussian with mean zero. Finally, we indicate potential statistical applications of our probabilistic results.

Tools & Techniques - Statistics: Propensity score techniques.

Propensity score (PS) techniques are useful if the number of potential confounding pretreatment variables is large and the number of analysed outcome events is rather small so that conventional multivariable adjustment is hardly feasible. Only pretreatment characteristics should be chosen to derive PS, and only when they are probably associated with outcome. A careful visual inspection of PS will help to identify areas of no or minimal overlap, which suggests residual confounding, and trimming of the data according to the distribution of PS will help to minimise residual confounding. Standardised differences in pretreatment characteristics provide a useful check of the success of the PS technique employed. As with conventional multivariable adjustment, PS techniques cannot account for confounding variables that are not or are only imperfectly measured, and no PS technique is a substitute for an adequately designed randomised trial.

Directional statistics: introduction

In many of the natural and physical sciences, measurements are directions, either in two or three dimensions. The analysis of directional data relies on specific statistical models and procedures, which differ from the usual models and methodologies of Cartesian data. This chapter briefly introduces statistical models and inference for this type of data. The basic von Mises-Fisher distribution is introduced and nonparametric methods such as goodness-of-fit tests are presented. Further references are given for exploring related topics such as correlation and regression.

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE EFFECT OF TESTOSTERONE ON THE QUANTITATIVE MAINTENANCE OF SPERMATOGENESIS IN THE HYPOPHYSECTOMIZED ADULT RAT (PHARMACOKINETICS, MORPHOMETRY, STATISTICS)

Administration of gonadotropins or testosterone (T) will maintain qualitatively normal spermatogenesis and fertility in hypophysectomized (APX) rats. However, quantitative maintenance of the spermatogenic process in APX rats treated with T alone or in combination with follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) has not been demonstrated. Studies reported here were conducted to determine whether it would be possible to increase intratesticular testosterone (ITT) levels in APX rats to those found in normal animals by administration of appropriate amounts of testosterone propionate (TP) and if under these conditions spermatogenesis can be maintained quantitatively. Quantitative analysis of spermatogenesis was performed on stages VI and VII of the spermatogenic cycle utilizing criteria of Leblond and Clermont (1952) all cell types were enumerated. In a series of experiments designed to investigate the effects of T on spermatogenesis, TP was administered to 60 day old APX rats twice daily for 30 days in doses ranging from 0.6 to 15 mg/day or from 0.6 to 6.0 mg/day in combination with FSH. The results of this study demonstrate that the efficiency of transformation of type A to type B spermatogonia and the efficacy of the meiotic prophase are related to ITT levels, and that quantitatively normal completion of the reduction division requires normal ITT levels. The ratio of spermatids to spermatocytes in the vehicle-treated APX rats was 1:1.38; in the APX rats treated with 15 mg of TP it was 1:4.0 (the theoretically expected number). This study is probably the first to demonstrate: (1) the pharmacokinetics of TP, (2) the profile and quantity of T-immunoactivity in both serum and testicular tissue of APX and IC rats as well as APX rats treated with TP alone or in combination with FSH, (3) the direct correlation of serum T and ITT levels in treated APX rats (r = 0.9, p < 0.001) as well as in the IC rats (r = 0.9, p < 0.001), (4) the significant increase in the number of Type B spermatogonia, preleptotene and pachytene spermatocytes and round spermatids in TP-treated APX rats, (5) the correlation of the number of round spermatids formed in IC rats to ITT levels (r = 0.9, p < 0.001), and (6) the correlation of the quantitative maintenance of spermatogenesis with ITT levels (r = 0.7, p < 0.001) in the testes of TP-treated APX rats. These results provide direct experimental evidence for the key role of T in the spermatogenic process. ^

Connecticut Poison Control Center. 2002 and 2003 Annual Report and Poison Exposure Statistics

The Connecticut Poison Control Center (CPCC) at the University of Connecticut Health Center (UCHC) was established in 1957 under Connecticut General Statute 10a- 132. The CPCC’s main responsibility is to provide 24-hour emergency toxicology management consultations for victims of poisoning, and serve as a source for pharmacology and toxicology-related information. The center monitors the epidemiology of human poisoning and provides surveillance for environmental and occupational chemical exposures, drug abuse, and pharmaceutical interactions and adverse effects. The CPCC performs toxicological research, and provides formal toxicology instruction for allied health professionals, as well as professional and consumer poison prevention education. The CPCC is one of 63 nationwide centers certified by the American Association of Poison Control Centers (AAPCC), and the only poison center in the state of Connecticut. The AAPCC establishes standards of care for poisoning and administers the Toxic Exposure Surveillance System (TESS), a national database of poisoning statistics, to which the CPCC is a contributor.