Asymmetry and duration dependence in Australian GDP and unemployment

The per iodic structure of business cycles suggests that significant asymmetries are present over different phases of the cycle. This paper uses markov regime-switching models with fixed and duration dependent transition probabilities to directly model expansions, contractions and durations in Australian GDP growth and unemployment growth. Evidence is found of significant asymmetry in growth rates across expansions and contractions for both series. GDP contractions exhibit duration dependence implying that as output recessions age the likelihood of switching into an expansion phase increases. Unemployment growth does not exhibit duration dependence in either phase. Evidence is also presented that non-linearities in unemployment growth are well explained by the asymmetries in the GDP growth cycle. The analysis suggests that recessions are periods of rapid and intense job destruction, that Australian unemployment tends to ratchet up in recessionary periods and, in contrast to US and UK studies, that shocks to Australian unemployment growth are more persistent in recessions than expansions. [E37 C5 C41].

The spatial and temporal distribution of koala faecal pellets

Faecal pellets were collected under trees used by free-ranging koalas in south-western, central and southeastern Queensland to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of pellets with respect to the activity of koalas. Deposition of faecal pellets by koalas was analysed according to the time of day at which the tree was occupied. For free-ranging koalas, 47% of daily faecal pellet output was recovered using a collection mat of 8 x 8 m placed under a day-roost tree. The best predictor of pellet production was the presence of a koala in a tree between 1800 hours and midnight. For other periods, there was no relationship between period of tree occupancy and faecal pellet recovery. There was a significant relationship between the average length of tree occupancy and the time of day that a koala entered a tree.

Antipronation taping and temporary orthoses - Effects on tibial rotation position after exercise

Abnormal lower-limb biomechanics-in particular, abnormal pronation of the subtalar joint with concomitant increased internal rotation of the tibia-is one of the major causes of overuse injuries of the lower limb. A randomized, controlled, within-subjects research design (N = 14) was used to investigate the effect of a temporary felt orthosis and an antipronation taping technique to control the transverse tibial rotation position immediately after application and after each of two 10-minute periods of exercise. The results showed that the taping technique was superior to both the orthosis and no intervention in controlling tibial rotation position immediately after application and after 10 minutes of exercise. After 20 minutes of exercise, neither the tape nor the orthosis was significantly superior to the control; however, the trends suggested that some residual control was maintained. Future studies are needed to determine the amount of foot pronation control required to relieve symptoms in a symptomatic population in order to determine the clinical effectiveness of these treatment methods.

Hysterectomy fractions in New South Wales, 1971-2006

Hysterectomy fractions by age group for particular periods are of interest for: estimating proper population denominators for calculation of disease and procedure rates affecting the cervix and uterus; estimating the target population for Pap test programs, and response rates; and as a way of displaying the cumulative consequences of hysterectomies in a population. Hysterectomy fractions for populations can be determined by direct inquiry via a representative sample survey, or, as in this study, from prior hysterectomy rates of the cohorts of women which compose each age bracket. Hysterectomy data 1979-93 were obtained from the hospital In-patients Statistics Collection (ISC) which covers both public and private hospitals in NSW. Annual population denominators of women were obtained from Census data. Data were modelled by Poisson regression, using five.-year age group (15-greater than or equal to 85 years), annual period, and five-year birth cohort (APC model). Forward- and back-projection of the period effects were undertaken. The resultant NSW hysterectomy fractions by age and period are consistent with fractions obtained from modelled hysterectomy rates for Western Australia (1980-84), and fractions from national representative sample surveys (1989/90 and 1995) for younger women, but not for women aged greater than or equal to 70 years in 1995, which revealed higher hysterectomy fractions than modelled hysterectomy data would suggest. Hysterectomy fractions for NSW women by five-year age group for quinquennia centred on 1971 to 2006 are provided.

Fluctuations in heroin purity and the incidence of fatal heroin overdose

In order to determine the role played by heroin purity in fatal heroin overdoses, time series analyses were conducted on the purity of street heroin seizures in south western Sydney and overdose fatalities in that region. A total of 322 heroin samples were analysed in fortnightly periods between February 1993 to January 1995. A total of 61 overdose deaths occurred in the region in the study period. Cross correlation plots revealed a significant correlation of 0.57 at time lag zero between mean purity of heroin samples per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. Similarly, there was a significant correlation of 0.50 at time lag zero between the highest heroin purity per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. The correlation between range of heroin purity and number of deaths per fortnight was 0.40. A simultaneous multiple regression on scores adjusted for first order correlation indicated both the mean level of heroin purity and the range of heroin purity were independent predictors of the number of deaths per fortnight. The results indicate that the occurrence of overdose fatalities was moderately associated with both the average heroin purity and the range of heroin purity over the study period. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Availability of two forms of dissolved nitrogen to the coral Pocillopora damicornis and its symbiotic zooxanthellae

The relative contribution of dissolved nitrogen (ammonium and dissolved free amino acids DFAAs) to the nitrogen budget of the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis was assessed for colonies growing on control and ammonium-enriched reefs at One Tree Island (southern Great Barrier Reef) during the ENCORE (Enrichment of Nutrient on Coral Reef; 1993 to 1996) project. P. damicornis acquired ammonium at rates of between 5.1 and 91.8 nmol N cm(-2) h(-1) which were not affected by nutrient treatment except in the case of one morph. In this case, uptake rates decreased from 80.5 to 42.8 nmol cm(-2) h(-1) (P < 0.05) on exposure to elevated ammonium over 12 mo. The presence or absence of light during measurement did not influence the uptake of ammonium ions. Nitrogen budgets revealed that the uptake of ammonium from concentrations of 0.11 to 0.13 mu M could completely satisfy the demand of growing P. damicornis for new nitrogen. P. damicornis also took up DFAAs at rates ranging from 4.9 to 9.8 nmol N cm(-2) h(-1). These rates were higher in the dark than in the light (9.0 vs 5.1 nmol m(-2) h(-1), P < 0.001). Uptake rates were highest for the amino acids serine, arginine and alanine, and lowest for tyrosine. DFAA concentrations within the ENCORE microatolls that received ammonium were undetectable, whereas they ranged up to 100 nM within the control microatolls. The contribution of DFAAs to the nitrogen budget of P. damicornis constituted only a small fraction of the nitrogen potentially contributed by ammonium under field conditions. Even at the highest field concentrations measured during this study, DFAAs could contribute only similar or equal to 11.3% of the nitrogen demand of P. damicornis. This contribution, however, may be an important source of nitrogen when other sources such as ammonium are scarce or during periods when high concentrations of DFAAs become sporadically available (e.g. cell breakage during fish-grazing).

Reducing the toll of opioid overdose deaths in Australia

Opioid overdose mortality among young adults in Australia has increased consistently over the past several decades. Among Australian adults aged 15-44 years, the number of these deaths has increased from six in 1964 to 600 in 1997. The rate (per million adults in this age group) increased 55-fold, from 1.3 in 1964 to 71.5 in 1997, The proportion of all deaths in adults in this age group caused by opioid overdose increased from 0.1% in 1964 to 7.3% in 1997, The magnitude of the increase makes it unlikely to be an artefact of changes in diagnosis, especially as similar increases have also been observed in other countries. These trends are also consistent,vith historical information which indicates that illicit heroin use first came to police attention in Sydney and Melbourne in the late 1960s, There is an urgent need to implement and evaluate a variety of measures to reduce the unacceptable toll of opioid overdose deaths among young Australians. These include: peer education about the risks of polydrug use and overdose after resuming opioid use after periods of abstinence, and attracting more dependent users into opioid maintenance treatment. Measures are also needed to improve responses to overdose by encouraging witnesses to call ambulances, training drug users in CPR, and trialling distribution of the opiate antagonist naloxone to users at high risk of overdose.

Frequency stabilised grating feedback laser diode for atom cooling applications

The free running linewidth of an external cavity grating feedback diode laser is on the order of a few megahertz and is limited by the mechanical and acoustic vibrations of the external cavity. Such frequency fluctuations can be removed by electronic feedback. We present a hybrid stabilisation technique that uses both a Fabry-Perot confocal cavity and an atomic resonance to achieve excellent short and long term frequency stability. The system has been shown to reduce the laser linewidth of an external cavity diode laser by an order of magnitude to 140 kHz, while limiting frequency excursions to 60 kHz relative to an absolute reference over periods of several hours. The scheme also presents a simple way to frequency offset two lasers many gigahertz apart which should find a use in atom cooling experiments, where hyperfine ground-state frequency separations are often required.

Late Quaternary cycles of mangrove development and decline on the north Australian continental shelf

Mangrove communities in the Australian tropics presently occur as narrow belts of vegetation in estuaries and on sheltered, muddy coasts. Palynological data from continental shelf and deep-sea cores indicate a long-term cyclical component of mangrove development and decline at a regional scale, which can be linked to specific phases of late Quaternary sealevel change. Extensive mangrove development, relative to today, occurs during periods of marine transgression, whereas very diminished mangrove occurs during marine regressions and during rarer periods of relative sea-level stability. Episodes of flourishing mangrove cannot be linked to phases of humid climate, as has been suggested in studies elsewhere. Rather, the cycle of expansion and decline of mangrove communities on a grand scale is explained in terms of contrasting physiographic settings characteristic of continental-shelf coasts during transgressive and regressive phases, in particular by the existence, or lack, of well-developed tidal estuaries. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantifying the influence of intra-aggregate concentration gradients on solute transport

The physical nonequilibrium of solute concentration resulting from preferential now of soil water has often led to models where the soil is partitioned into two regions: preferential flow paths, where solute transport occurs mainly by advection, and the remaining region, where significant solute transport occurs through diffusive exchange with the flow paths. These two-region models commonly ignore concentration gradients within the regions. Our objective was to develop a simple model to assess the influence of concentration gradients on solute transport and to compare model results with experiments conducted on structured materials. The model calculates the distribution of solutes in a single spherical aggregate surrounded by preferential now paths and subjected to alternating boundary conditions representing either an exchange of solutes between the two regions (a wet period) or no exchange but redistribution of solutes within the aggregate (a dry period). The key parameter in the model is the aggregate radius, which defines the diffusive time scales. We conducted intermittent leaching experiments on a column of packed porous spheres and on a large (300 mm long by 216 mm diameter) undisturbed field soil core to test the validity of the model and its application to field soils. Alternating wet and dry periods enhanced leaching by up to 20% for this soil, which was consistent with the model's prediction, given a fitted equivalent aggregate radius of 1.8 cm, If similar results are obtained for other soils, use of alternating wet and dry periods could improve management of solutes, for example in salinity control and in soil remediation.

Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

A method of analysing stream channel response to environmental change: gauge data for the Tully River

Gauging data are available from numerous streams throughout Australia, and these data provide a basis for historical analysis of geomorphic change in stream channels in response to both natural phenomena and human activities. We present a simple method for analysis of these data, and a briefcase study of an application to channel change in the Tully River, in the humid tropics of north Queensland. The analysis suggests that this channel has narrowed and deepened, rather than aggraded: channel aggradation was expected, given the intensification of land use in the catchment, upstream of the gauging station. Limitations of the method relate to the time periods over which stream gauging occurred; the spatial patterns of stream gauging sites; the quality and consistency of data collection; and the availability of concurrent land-use histories on which to base the interpretation of the channel changes.

Metabolic analysis of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) production by recombinant Escherichia coli

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) production by fermentation was examined under both restricted- and ample-oxygen supply conditions in a single fed-batch fermentation. Recombinant Escherichia coli transformed with the PHB production plasmid pSYL107 was grown to reach high cell density (227 g/l dry cell weight) with a high PHB content (78% of dry cell weight), using a glucose-based minimal medium. A simple flux model containing 12 fluxes was developed and applied to the fermentation data. A superior closure (95%) of the carbon mass balance was achieved. When the data were put into use, the results demonstrated a surprisingly large excretion of formate and lactate. Even though periods of severe oxygen limitation coincided with rapid acetate and lactate excretion, PHB productivity and carbon utilization efficiency were not significantly impaired. These results are very positive in reducing oxygen demand in an industrial PHA fermentation without sacrificing its PHA productivity, thereby reducing overall production costs.

Moisture is required for the termination of egg diapause in the chrysomelid beetle, Homichloda barkeri

Four factors (moisture, light regime, temperature, food type) were examined for their effects on the embryonic diapause of Homichloda (Weiseana) barkeri (Jacoby) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), a biocontrol agent for prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica (L.) Willdenew ex Delile (Mimosaceae). Moisture is critical for termination of diapause. A single wetting of eggs resulted in a low hatch rate while a sequence of wetting events followed by periods of dryness produced a high hatch rate. A relatively constant proportion of embryos within each batch initiated development at each wetting event, with hatching complete after the eighth wetting event in these trials. An extended interval between wetting events, tested at up to 23 days, did not result in a decreased overall hatch rate. A threshold time of exposure to moisture of between 3 to 6 h is required before development proceeds. The response of eggs to the moisture regime is seen as a strategy for taking advantage of available food after rainfall by terminating diapause, rather than merely a quiescent response to the absence of moisture. Temperature affected development time and the proportion of eggs that developed. Experimental manipulations of photoperiod and host-plant availability showed no effect on embryonic development.

Increasing the efficiency of solute leaching: impacts of flow interruption with drainage of the "preferential flow paths"

Most soils contain preferential flow paths that can impact on solute mobility. Solutes can move rapidly down the preferential flow paths with high pore-water velocities, but can be held in the less permeable region of the soil matrix with low pore-water velocities, thereby reducing the efficiency of leaching. In this study, we conducted leaching experiments with interruption of the flow and drainage of the main flow paths to assess the efficiency of this type of leaching. We compared our experimental results to a simple analytical model, which predicts the influence of the variations in concentration gradients within a single spherical aggregate (SSA) surrounded by preferential flow paths on leaching. We used large (length: 300 mm, diameter: 216 mm) undisturbed field soil cores from two contrasting soil types. To carry out intermittent leaching experiments, the field soil cores were first saturated with tracer solution (CaBr2), and background solution (CaCl2) was applied to mimic a leaching event. The cores were then drained at 25- to 30-cm suction to empty the main flow paths to mimic a dry period during which solutes could redistribute within the undrained region. We also conducted continuous leaching experiments to assess the impact of the dry periods on the efficiency of leaching. The flow interruptions with drainage enhanced leaching by 10-20% for our soils, which was consistent with the model's prediction, given an optimised equivalent aggregate radius for each soil. This parameter quantifies the time scales that characterise diffusion within the undrained region of the soil, and allows us to calculate the duration of the leaching events and interruption periods that would lead to more efficient leaching. Application of these methodologies will aid development of strategies for improving management of chemicals in soils, needed in managing salts in soils, in improving fertiliser efficiency, and in reclaiming contaminated soils. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.