A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Mechanisms Governing the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

Eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is frequently observed during the evolution of intensifying Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Although intensely studied in recent years, the underlying mechanisms of ERC are still poorly understood, and the forecast of ERC remains a great challenge. To advance our understanding of ERC and provide insights in improvement of numerical forecast of ERC, a series of numerical simulations is performed to investigate ERCs in TC-like vortices on a f-plane. The simulated ERCs possess key features similar to those observed in real TCs including the formation of a secondary tangential wind maximum associated with the outer eyewall. The Sawyer-Eliassen equation and tangential momentum budget analyses are performed to diagnose the mechanisms underlying the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) and ERC. Our diagnoses reveal crucial roles of outer rainband heating in governing the formation and development of the secondary tangential wind maximum and demonstrate that the outer rainband convection must reach a critical strength relative to the eyewall before SEF and the subsequent ERC can occur. A positive feedback among low-level convection, acceleration of tangential winds in the boundary layer, and surface evaporation that leads to the development of ERC and a mechanism for the demise of inner eyewall that involves interaction between the transverse circulations induced by eyewall and outer rainband convection are proposed. The tangential momentum budget indicates that the net tendency of tangential wind is a small residual resultant from a large cancellation between tendencies induced by the resolved and sub-grid scale (SGS) processes. The large SGS contribution to the tangential wind budget explains different characteristics of ERC shown in previous numerical studies and poses a great challenge for a timely correct forecast of ERC. The sensitivity experiments show that ERCs are strongly subjected to model physics, vortex radial structure and background wind. The impact of model physics on ERC can be well understood with the interaction among eyewall/outer rainband heating, radilal inflow in the boundary layer, surface layer turbulent processes, and shallow convection in the moat. However, further investigations are needed to fully understand the exhibited sensitivities of ERC to vortex radial structure and background wind.

Sustainable solutions for the construction sector: integration of secondary raw materials in the production cycle of concrete

The construction industry is one of the largest consumers of raw materials and energy and one of the highest contributor to green-houses gases emissions. In order to become more sustainable it needs to reduce the use of both raw materials and energy, thus lim-iting its environmental impact. Developing novel technologies to integrate secondary raw materials (i.e. lightweight recycled aggre-gates and alkali activated “cementless” binders - geopolymers) in the production cycle of concrete is an all-inclusive solution to im-prove both sustainability and cost-efficiency of construction industry. SUS-CON “SUStainable, Innovative and Energy-Efficiency CONcrete, based on the integration of all-waste materials” is an European project (duration 2012-2015), which aim was the inte-gration of secondary raw materials in the production cycle of concrete, thus resulting in innovative, sustainable and cost-effective building solutions. This paper presents the main outcomes related to the successful scaling-up of SUS-CON concrete solutions in traditional production plants. Two European industrial concrete producers have been involved, to design and produce both pre-cast components (blocks and panels) and ready-mixed concrete. Recycled polyurethane foams and mixed plastics were used as aggre-gates, PFA (Pulverized Fuel Ash, a by-product of coal fuelled power plants) and GGBS (Ground Granulated Blast furnace Slag, a by-product of iron and steel industries) as binders. Eventually, the installation of SUS-CON concrete solutions on real buildings has been demonstrated, with the construction of three mock-ups located in Europe (Spain, Turkey and Romania)

Real Estate Case Competitions

Real Estate is by nature a hands-on business in which real-world experience and new challenges are the best teacher. With this in mind, graduate real estate education has embraced case competitions as a way to apply education-based learning to real world project simulation. In recent years, teams from Cornell have consistently stood out in these competitions, making impressions and forming relationships that they will carry with them over their careers. In this issue of the Review, we recognize a composite of previous winners of the four major real estate-focused case competitions, and look back on what was a very successful year for case competition teams at Cornell. The case competitions draw students from all the constituent programs of Real Estate at Cornell, including the Baker Program, Johnson Graduate School of Management, City and Regional Planning, Architecture, and Landscape Architecture.

Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

A Valuation Analysis of the Physical Oceanographic Real Time System (PORTS)

This analysis estimates several economic benefits derived from national implementation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS®) at the 175 largest ports in the United States. Significant benefits were observed owing to: (1) lower commercial marine accident rates and resultant reductions in morbidity, mortality and property damage; (2) reduced pollution remediation costs; and, (3) increased productivity associated with operation of more fully loaded commercial vessels. Evidence also suggested additional benefits from heightened commercial and recreational fish catch and diminished recreational boating accidents. Annual gross benefits from 58 current PORTS® locations exceeded $217 million with an addition $83 million possible if installed at the largest remaining 117 ports in the United States. Over the ten-year economic life of PORTS® instruments, the present value for installation at all 175 ports could approach $2.5 billion.

Social media to support collaboration in the product life cycle of SMEs

Abstract : The use of social media tools to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) to support their business activities throughout the product life cycle (PLC) phases represents an interesting opportunity. SMEs operate in very competitive environments, and face significant challenges primarily caused by their size disadvantage. By nature, social media tools and platforms can enable them to overcome some of these challenges, as they are often very inexpensive, familiar and easy to use, allowing them to reach large audiences they would not be able to reach with traditional and expensive marketing initiatives. To provide solutions to this problem, this research identified three main objectives. The first objective was to draw a picture of the existing academic literature on the use of social media tools in the PLC context to better understand how these tools were studied and used in businesses, and for what purpose. Second, this research aimed at understanding how SMEs actually use social media tools to support their different business activities to identify the gap between academic research and actual business practices. Finally, based on the findings highlighted from the previous objectives, this research aimed at developing theory on this topic by proposing a conceptual framework of customer engagement enabled by social media. The conceptual framework aimed at answering general questions that emerged from the initial two objectives: Why do some SMEs use social media to support customer engagement, while others do not? Why do firms use different social media tools to support their customer engagement initiatives? Why does the scope of customer engagement initiatives (i.e., across different PLC phases) vary between SMEs? What are the potential outcomes of conducting customer engagement initiatives for the organizing firms? In order to achieve these research objectives, the methodology employed for this research is threefold. First, a systematic literature review was performed in order to properly understand how the use of social media tools in the PLC context had been studied. The final results consisted of 78 academic articles which were analyzed based on their bibliometric information and their content. Second, in order to draw the contrast between the academic publications and managerial reality of SMEs, six semi-structured interviews were conducted to understand how these firms actually use social media to support different activities in each of the PLC phases. Third, five additional semi-structured interviews were performed to gather a deeper understanding of this phenomenon and generate theory to support the proposed conceptual framework. The conceptual framework focuses on the degree of customer engagement, which is comprised of the scope (PLC phases) of customer engagement and the technology (social media tools) employed to support these initiatives. Two sets of antecedents were examined, firm motivators and firm impediments, as they could both potentially affect the scope and the social media tools used to support customer engagement initiatives. Finally, potential customer engagement outcomes for SMEs developing these initiatives were also examined. The semi-structured interviews lasted approximately 25-35 minutes, and were performed using an interview grid consisting of 24 open-ended questions. The interview grid was developed based on the findings of the systematic literature review, and this qualitative approach allowed for a rich understanding of the interviewed SMEs’ use of social media tools to support and engage customers in their different PLC activities. The main results highlighted by this project demonstrate that this field is relatively recent and sees constant increase in research interest since 2008. However, most of the academic research focuses on the use of social media tools to support innovation activities during the new product development process, while the interviewed firms almost exclusively used the tools to engage customers in the later phases of the PLC, primarily for promotion, customer service support, and business development activities. Interestingly, the interviewed firms highlighted several benefits of using social media tools to engage customers, some of which could help them overcome certain size disadvantages previously mentioned. These firms are in need of further guidelines to properly implement such initiatives and reap the expected benefits. Results suggest that SMEs are far behind both large companies and academic research in their use of social media to engage customers in different business activities. The proposed conceptual framework serves as a great tool to better understand their reality and eventually better support them in their social media and customer engagement efforts. However, this framework needs to be further developed and improved. This research project provides a 360-degree view of the phenomenon of the use of social media to support customer engagement for SMEs, by providing both a thorough systematic review of the academic research and an understanding of the managerial reality of SMEs behind this phenomenon. From this analysis, a conceptual framework is then proposed and serves as a stepping stone for future researchers who are interested in developing theory in this field.

Devaluation, competitiveness and new business formation in emerging countries

In September 2010, Brazil’s Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, used the term “currency war” with reference to monetary policies implemented by different countries to generate an artificial devaluation of their currency and achieve a cheaper, more competitive domestic economy that may be attractive to foreign investors. Similar cases have been documented since the 1930s Great Depression, when several countries abandoned the gold standard as backing for their currencies. More recently, a large-scale asset purchase by Japan’s Central Bank in 2013 was singled out as a strategy aimed at generating devaluation of the yen. This research uses statistics of new business formation density reported by Doing Business for 30 emerging countries in the period 2004-2011 to evaluate the impact of devaluation measured by the behavior of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on the rate of new business formation (NBF). It is determined how variables associated with competitiveness affect the relationship between devaluation and business formation. Results show that devaluation has a positive effect on NBF in the short term, which gets diluted in the long term. Countries with greater competitiveness have less dependence on devaluation to increase the number of businesses.

Climate Clever Beef: options to improve business performance and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in northern Australia

The Rangeland Journal – Climate Clever Beef special issue examines options for the beef industry in northern Australia to contribute to the reduction in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to engage in the carbon economy. Relative to its gross value (A$5 billion), the northern beef industry is responsible for a sizable proportion of national reportable GHG emissions (8–10%) through enteric methane, savanna burning, vegetation clearing and land degradation. The industry occupies large areas of land and has the potential to impact the carbon cycle by sequestering carbon or reducing carbon loss. Furthermore, much of the industry is currently not achieving its productivity potential, which suggests that there are opportunities to improve the emissions intensity of beef production. Improving the industry’s GHG emissions performance is important for its environmental reputation and may benefit individual businesses through improved production efficiency and revenue from the carbon economy. The Climate Clever Beef initiative collaborated with beef businesses in six regions across northern Australia to better understand the links between GHG emissions and carbon stocks, land condition, herd productivity and profitability. The current performance of businesses was measured and alternate management options were identified and evaluated. Opportunities to participate in the carbon economy through the Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) were also assessed. The initiative achieved significant producer engagement and collaboration resulting in practice change by 78 people from 35 businesses, managing more than 1 272 000 ha and 132 000 cattle. Carbon farming opportunities were identified that could improve both business performance and emissions intensity. However, these opportunities were not without significant risks, trade-offs and limitations particularly in relation to business scale, and uncertainty in carbon price and the response of soil and vegetation carbon sequestration to management. This paper discusses opportunities for reducing emissions, improving emission intensity and carbon sequestration, and outlines the approach taken to achieve beef business engagement and practice change. The paper concludes with some considerations for policy makers.

PROPOSTA DE MODELO DE MEDIÇÕES PARA CONTRATAÇÃO DO GERENCIAMENTO DE PROCESSO DE NEGÓCIO (BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT- BPM)

O Gerenciamento de Processo de Negócio (Business Process Management- BPM) tem sido uma prática adotada pelas organizações públicas e privadas. O BPM possibilita a identificação eficaz das necessidades e das informações necessárias para suportar a operacionalização ou a automatização do processo de negócio. Considerando que as organizações têm necessitado terceirizar esse serviço, o objetivo desse trabalho foi propor um modelo de medição para contratação dos serviços de BPM. Para atender a esse objetivo, o modelo conceitual construído partiu da premissa que a gestão da contratação de um BPM deve fornecer critérios para mensurar a demanda, ou serviço, avaliar a qualidade dos serviços prestados e a qualidade do produto recebido. O estudo adotou como instrumentos de coleta de dados a pesquisa documental e a revisão sistemática. Com base nos objetivos e questões de pesquisa foram identificados os strings para busca, definidas as fontes de busca, critérios de inclusão e exclusão dos resultados. Todos os trabalhos selecionados foram lidos e analisados e foi utilizado um mapa mental para consolidação dos resultados. Foi utilizado o GQM (Goal, Questions, Metrics) para a elaboração das medições e adotado o estudo de caso. Parte das medições propostas foram aplicadas em 13 modelos de processo de negócio do mundo real com o objetivo de verificar sua coerência e comparar os resultados. Foi realizada entrevista com especialista em modelagem de processos de negócios para avaliar os resultados obtidos e, na percepção deste especialista a maior parte das métricas propostas pela pesquisa é adequada à realidade de mercado, considerando o contexto de terceirização desse serviço.

Boost Software Business Products with Hybrid Development

This paper presents how new paradigms and methodologies for software development are changing rapidly in the last two years. In the current scenario where we live on, occurs a transition that, although slight, reflects the rapid manner in which the software production paradigms are reinvented due to the change of display devices and interaction with the end user. Studies indicate that in 2013 was the turn out of the internet access domain for mobile devices over the traditional desktop device, which is currently at around 60% mobile, against 40% desktop. This field will tend to grow in the coming years and it is expected that the use of internet for a desktop terminal tends to be less each day (comScore). In this context, the software industry has been re-invented and updated with respect to technologies that promote software and mobile applications, building products capable of responding to the user market. The development of software products, such as applications, must be put into production for different user environments, such as Web, iOS and Android in a way to enhance efficiency, optimization and productivity in the software development cycle (Langer, Arthur M.).

Uma arquitetura de referência para o processamento distribuído de stream de dados em soluções analíticas de near real-time

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica, 2015.

A simulação do real organizacional: O método dos casos como ponte entre o conhecimento tácito e o académico

O desenvolvimento da ciência organizacional tem sido marcado pelo desdobramento de modas e modelos nas mais diversas áreas. O presente artigo reflecte sobre o seu papel, particularmente, por via dos estudos de caso. Sendo as escolas de negócios e de gestão um dos actores importantes na difusão destes modismos, o método dos casos, enquanto estratégia pedagógica, é entendido aqui como um importante veículo de coordenação entre a investigação científica organizacional e a sua realidade. Contribui para a aproximação entre os vários intervenientes neste processo (professores, alunos, gestores, líderes e empresários). Advoga-se a sua importância por estabelecer uma ponte entre a academia e a o mundo organizacional, entre o conhecimento teórico dos académicos e o conhecimento tácito dos agentes empresariais.

Evaluating tests for convergence of economic series using Monte Carlo methods with an application to real GDP's per head.

Doutoramento em Economia.