PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May–June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds, suggest a more gradual drying reflecting the weakening of the southwest monsoon.

The role of tree size in the leafing phenology of a seasonally dry tropical forest in Belize, Central America

Leafing phenology of two dry-forest sites on soils of different depth (S = shallow, D = deep) at Shipstern Reserve, Belize, were compared at the start of the rainy season (April-June 2000). Trees greater than or equal to 2.5 cm dbh were recorded weekly for 8 wk in three 0.04-ha plots per site. Ten species were analysed individually for their phenological patterns, of which the three most common were Bursera simaruba, Metopium brownei and Jatropha gaumeri. Trees were divided into those in the canopy (> 10 cm dbh) and the subcanopy (less than or equal to 10 cm dbh). Site S had larger trees on average than site D. The proportion of trees flushing leaves at any one time was generally higher in site S than in site D, for both canopy and subcanopy trees. Leaf flush started 2 wk earlier in site S than site D for subcanopy trees, but only 0.5 wk earlier for the canopy trees. Leaf flush duration was 1.5 wk longer in site S than site D. Large trees in the subcanopy flushed leaves earlier than small ones at both sites but in the canopy just at site D. Large trees flushed leaves earlier than small ones in three species and small trees flushed leaves more rapidly in two species. Bursera and Jatropha followed the general trends but Metopium, with larger trees in site D than site S, showed the converse with onset of flushing I wk earlier in site D than site S. Differences in response of the canopy and subcanopy trees on each site can be accounted for by the predominance of spring-flushing or stem-succulent species in site S and a tendency for evergreen species to occur in site D. Early flushing of relatively larger trees in site D most likely requires access to deeper soil water reserves but small and large trees utilize stored tree water in site S.

Phytoplankton in the Nhatrang Bay, South China Sea

Species composition, phytoplankton abundance, and relative yield of variable fluorescence (F_v/F_m) were determined in the mesotrophic Nhatrang Bay in October-November 2004. Species diversity (250 taxonomic units) and heterogeneity of the phytoplankton structure were high. With respect to number of species and their abundance, diatoms prevailed. In selected parts of the bay, dinoflagellates dominated. Average biomass in the water column under 1 m**2 (Bt) varied from 2.3 to 64.4 mg C/m**3 (av. 31.0 mg C/m**3). Bt values were the lowest at stations nearest to the river mouth. Seaward, Bt increased. Bt values increased with depth at some stations and decreased at others. In surface layers biomass was lower than that in the underlying waters. F_v/F_m values ranged from 0.10 to 0.64 (av. 0.49). The lowest F_v/F_m values were observed in the area close to the seaport. Over greater part of the bay, F_v/F_m values were higher than 0.47. Such values are indicative of relatively high potential of photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Abundance and species diversity were higher than those in the dry season (March-April).

Geochemistry and diatom abundances in sediment trap samples of Effingham Inlet, Canada

Sediment traps were deployed inside the anoxic inner basin of Effingham Inlet and at the oxygenated mouth of the inlet from May 1999 to September 2000 in a pilot study to determine the annual depositional cycle and impact of the 1999-2000 La Niña event within a western Canadian inlet facing the open Pacific Ocean. Total mass flux, geochemical parameters (carbon, nitrogen, opal, major and minor element contents, and stable isotope ratios) and diatom assemblages were determined and compared with meteorological and oceanographic data. Deposition was seasonal, with coarser grained terrestrial components and benthic diatoms settling in the autumn and winter, coincident with the rainy season. Marine sedimentary components and abundant pelagic diatoms were coincident with coastal upwelling in the spring and summer. Despite the seasonal differences in deposition, the typical temperate-zone Thalassiosira-Skeletonema-Chaetoceros bloom succession was muted. A July 1999 total mass flux peak and an increase in biogenous components coincided with a rare bottom-water oxygen renewal event in the inlet. Likewise, there were cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) just outside the inlet, and unusually high abundances of a previously undescribed cool-water marine diatom (Fragilariopsis pacifica sp. nov.) within the inlet. Each of these occurrences likely reflects a response to the strong La Niña that followed the year after the strongest-ever recorded El Niño event of 1997-1998. By the autumn of 1999, SSTs had returned to average, and F. pacifica had all but disappeared from the remaining trap record, indicating that oceanographic conditions had returned to normal. Oxygenation events were not witnessed in the inlet in the years before or after 1999, suggesting that a rare oceanographic and climatic event was captured by this sediment trap time series. The data from this record can therefore be used as a benchmark for identifying anomalous environmental conditions on this coast.

Stable hydrogen isotopic composition (dD) and stable carbon isotopic composition (d13C) of sediment core GeoB9508-5 off Senegal

To reconstruct variability of the West African monsoon and associated vegetation changes on precessional and millennial time scales, we analyzed a marine sediment core from the continental slope off Senegal spanning the past 44,000 years (44 ka). We used the stable hydrogen isotopic composition (dD) of individual terrestrial plant wax n-alkanes as a proxy for past rainfall variability. The abundance and stable carbon isotopic composition (d13C) of the same compounds were analyzed to assess changes in vegetation composition (C3/C4 plants) and density. The dD record reveals two wet periods that coincide with local maximum summer insolation from 38 to 28 ka and 15 to 4 ka and that are separated by a less wet period during minimum summer insolation. Our data indicate that rainfall intensity during the rainy season throughout both wet humid periods was similar, whereas the length of the rainy season was presumably shorter during the last glacial than during the Holocene. Additional dry intervals are identified that coincide with North Atlantic Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas interval, indicating that the West African monsoon over tropical northwest Africa is linked to both insolation forcing and high-latitude climate variability. The d13C record indicates that vegetation of the western Sahel was consistently dominated by C4 plants during the past 44 ka, whereas C3-type vegetation increased during the Holocene. Moreover, we observe a gradual ending of the Holocene humid period together with unchanging ratio of C3 to C4 plants, indicating that an abrupt aridification due to vegetation feedbacks is not a general characteristic of this time interval.