Evolutionary and convergence stability for continuous phenotypes in finite populations derived from two-allele models.

The evolution of a quantitative phenotype is often envisioned as a trait substitution sequence where mutant alleles repeatedly replace resident ones. In infinite populations, the invasion fitness of a mutant in this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process is used to characterize features about long-term phenotypic evolution, such as singular points, convergence stability (established from first-order effects of selection), branching points, and evolutionary stability (established from second-order effects of selection). Here, we try to characterize long-term phenotypic evolution in finite populations from this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process. We construct a stochastic model describing evolutionary dynamics at non-rare mutant allele frequency. We then derive stability conditions based on stationary average mutant frequencies in the presence of vanishing mutation rates. We find that the second-order stability condition obtained from second-order effects of selection is identical to convergence stability. Thus, in two-allele systems in finite populations, convergence stability is enough to characterize long-term evolution under the trait substitution sequence assumption. We perform individual-based simulations to confirm our analytic results.

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel and fracture risk assessment: an updated meta-analysis.

Meta-analysis of prospective studies shows that quantitative ultrasound of the heel using validated devices predicts risk of different types of fracture with similar performance across different devices and in elderly men and women. These predictions are independent of the risk estimates from hip DXA measures.Introduction Clinical utilisation of heel quantitative ultrasound (QUS) depends on its power to predict clinical fractures. This is particularly important in settings that have no access to DXA-derived bone density measurements. We aimed to assess the predictive power of heel QUS for fractures using a meta-analysis approach.Methods We conducted an inverse variance random effects meta-analysis of prospective studies with heel QUS measures at baseline and fracture outcomes in their follow-up. Relative risks (RR) per standard deviation (SD) of different QUS parameters (broadband ultrasound attenuation [BUA], speed of sound [SOS], stiffness index [SI], and quantitative ultrasound index [QUI]) for various fracture outcomes (hip, vertebral, any clinical, any osteoporotic and major osteoporotic fractures) were reported based on study questions.Results Twenty-one studies including 55,164 women and 13,742 men were included in the meta-analysis with a total follow-up of 279,124 person-years. All four QUS parameters were associated with risk of different fracture. For instance, RR of hip fracture for 1 SD decrease of BUA was 1.69 (95% CI 1.43-2.00), SOS was 1.96 (95% CI 1.64-2.34), SI was 2.26 (95%CI 1.71-2.99) and QUI was 1.99 (95% CI 1.49-2.67). There was marked heterogeneity among studies on hip and any clinical fractures but no evidence of publication bias amongst them. Validated devices from different manufacturers predicted fracture risks with similar performance (meta-regression p values > 0.05 for difference of devices). QUS measures predicted fracture with a similar performance in men and women. Meta-analysis of studies with QUS measures adjusted for hip BMD showed a significant and independent association with fracture risk (RR/SD for BUA = 1.34 [95%CI 1.22-1.49]).Conclusions This study confirms that heel QUS, using validated devices, predicts risk of different fracture outcomes in elderly men and women. Further research is needed for more widespread utilisation of the heel QUS in clinical settings across the world.

How life history and demography promote or inhibit the evolution of helping behaviours.

In natural populations, dispersal tends to be limited so that individuals are in local competition with their neighbours. As a consequence, most behaviours tend to have a social component, e.g. they can be selfish, spiteful, cooperative or altruistic as usually considered in social evolutionary theory. How social behaviours translate into fitness costs and benefits depends considerably on life-history features, as well as on local demographic and ecological conditions. Over the last four decades, evolutionists have been able to explore many of the consequences of these factors for the evolution of social behaviours. In this paper, we first recall the main theoretical concepts required to understand social evolution. We then discuss how life history, demography and ecology promote or inhibit the evolution of helping behaviours, but the arguments developed for helping can be extended to essentially any social trait. The analysis suggests that, on a theoretical level, it is possible to contrast three critical benefit-to-cost ratios beyond which costly helping is selected for (three quantitative rules for the evolution of altruism). But comparison between theoretical results and empirical data has always been difficult in the literature, partly because of the perennial question of the scale at which relatedness should be measured under localized dispersal. We then provide three answers to this question.

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention.

Cell surface expression of the epithelial Na channel and a mutant causing Liddle syndrome: a quantitative approach.

The epithelial amiloride-sensitive sodium channel (ENaC) controls transepithelial Na+ movement in Na(+)-transporting epithelia and is associated with Liddle syndrome, an autosomal dominant form of salt-sensitive hypertension. Detailed analysis of ENaC channel properties and the functional consequences of mutations causing Liddle syndrome has been, so far, limited by lack of a method allowing specific and quantitative detection of cell-surface-expressed ENaC. We have developed a quantitative assay based on the binding of 125I-labeled M2 anti-FLAG monoclonal antibody (M2Ab*) directed against a FLAG reporter epitope introduced in the extracellular loop of each of the alpha, beta, and gamma ENaC subunits. Insertion of the FLAG epitope into ENaC sequences did not change its functional and pharmacological properties. The binding specificity and affinity (Kd = 3 nM) allowed us to correlate in individual Xenopus oocytes the macroscopic amiloride-sensitive sodium current (INa) with the number of ENaC wild-type and mutant subunits expressed at the cell surface. These experiments demonstrate that: (i) only heteromultimeric channels made of alpha, beta, and gamma ENaC subunits are maximally and efficiently expressed at the cell surface; (ii) the overall ENaC open probability is one order of magnitude lower than previously observed in single-channel recordings; (iii) the mutation causing Liddle syndrome (beta R564stop) enhances channel activity by two mechanisms, i.e., by increasing ENaC cell surface expression and by changing channel open probability. This quantitative approach provides new insights on the molecular mechanisms underlying one form of salt-sensitive hypertension.

Quantitative phenetics and taxonomy of some phlebotomine taxa

Elucidating the evolution of Phlebotominae is important not only to revise their taxonomy, but also to help understand the origin of the genus Leishmania and its relationship with humans. Our study is a phenetic portrayal of this history based on the genetic relationships among some New Word and Old Word taxa. We used both multilocus enzyme electrophoresis and morphometry on 24 male specimens of the Old Word genus Phlebotomus (with three of its subgenera: Phlebotomus, Spelaeophlebotomus and Australophlebotomus), and on 67 male specimens of the three New World genera, Warileya, Brumptomyia and Lutzomyia, (with three subgenera of Lutzomyia: Lutzomyia, Oligodontomyia and Psychodopygus). Phenetic trees derived from both techniques were similar, but disclosed relationships that disagree with the present classification of sand flies. The need for a true evolutionary approach is stressed.

Quantitative morphological evidence for incipient species within Lutzomyia quinquefer (Diptera: Psychodidae)

Morphological variation among geographic populations of the New World sand fly Lutzomyia quinquefer (Diptera, Phlebotominae) was analyzed and patterns detected that are probably associated with species emergence. This was achieved by examining the relationships of size and shape components of morphological attributes, and their correlation with geographic parameters. Quantitative and qualitative morphological characters are described, showing in both sexes differences among local populations from four Departments of Bolivia. Four arguments are then developed to reject the hypothesis of environment as the unique source of morphological variation: (1) the persistence of differences after removing the allometric consequences of size variation, (2) the association of local metric properties with meristic and qualitative attributes, rather than with altitude, (3) the positive and significant correlation between metric and geographic distances, and (4) the absence of a significant correlation between altitude and general-size of the insects.

Kyste synovial de l'épaule traité par aspiration et infiltration sous échographie : rapport de 3 cas avec pathologies différentes

Introduction: Les kystes synoviaux localisés à l'épaule sont des conditions rares résultant de tendinopathies rompues de la coiffe des rotateurs, d'une omarthrose sévère, d'arthropathies microcristallines de l'articulation acromio-claviculaire ou gléno-humérale, ou d'une atteinte secondaire à un rhumatisme inflammatoire chronique. Ils se présentent cliniquement le plus souvent sous la forme d'une tuméfaction fluctuante indolore en regard du moignon de l'épaule ou de l'articulation acromio-claviculaire. L'imagerie par échographie permet de caractériser aisément la présence de ces kystes. La prise en charge thérapeutique est généralement non invasive par aspiration-infiltration. Les cas réfractaires sont susceptibles de subir une intervention chirurgicale en fonction de l'âge et de l'état général du patient.Patients et Méthodes: Nous rapportons les cas de 3 patients avec imagerie par échographie et IRM ou Scanner. Le premier cas est celui d'un homme de 47 ans, greffé rénal, présentant une arthrite récidivante des épaules sur arthropathie microcristalline mixte. De multiples kystes synoviaux sont mis en évidence dans la musculature du supra-épineux gauche, communiquant avec l'articulation acromio-claviculaire. Le patient a bénéficié à plusieurs ponctions-infiltrations dirigées par ultrasonographie. Le deuxième cas est celui d'un patient de 32 ans connu pour une arthrite psoriasique évoluant depuis 6 ans. Il présente une importante tuméfaction en regard du biceps à gauche sur un kyste synovial provenant de l'articulation gléno-humérale. Il bénéficie également d'une ponction-infiltration dirigée par ultrason. Le troisième cas est celui d'une femme de 91 ans chez qui au status d'entrée on objective une volumineuse masse polylobée en regard de l'acromio-claviculaire, présente depuis 2002 qui n'a jamais été symptomatique. Un US, puis un CT montrent qu'il s'agit de volumineux kystes articulaires en relation avec une arthropathie sévère dégénérative et à apatite de l'acromio-claviculaire.Résultats: Les trois patients ont bénéficié d'une imagerie diagnostique par échographie complétée par une IRM ou Scanner. Tous les trois ont également subi une aspiration dirigée sous échographie. Dans le premier cas, deux aspiration-infiltration des kystes qui apportaient une évolution favorable avec diminution important des kystes. Dans le deuxième cas nous avons retrouvé un kyste après 2 aspirations et dans ce cas une intervention chirurgicale est considérée. Dans le troisième cas, asymptomatique, une résection à visée esthétique a été refusée par la patiente.Conclusion: Les kystes synoviaux localisés à l'épaule restent des conditions rares, provenant d'entités diverses. Nous rapportons le développement de kystes synoviaux de l'épaule dans une arthropathie microcristalline chez un patient greffé rénal, dans une arthrite psoriasique chez un jeune patient en poussée inflammatoire, et finalement de gros kystes asymptomatiques chroniques sur une atteinte dégénérative et microcristalline chez une patiente âgée. Le diagnostic de ces kystes peut être rapidement obtenu par échographie, permettant l'aspiration guidée avec analyse du liquide. En raison d'un fort taux de récidive malgré un traitement par aspiration-infiltration, une intervention chirurgicale de ces kystes est considérée.

An evaluation of pharmacy prescribing in Northern Ireland-a quantitative and qualitative assessment (PDF 62KB)

Independent research jointly commissioned by the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety (DHSSPS) and the HSC R&D Division.

Composition of fingermark residue: a qualitative and quantitative review

This article describes the composition of fingermark residue as being a complex system with numerous compounds coming from different sources and evolving over time from the initial composition (corresponding to the composition right after deposition) to the aged composition (corresponding to the evolution of the initial composition over time). This complex system will additionally vary due to effects of numerous influence factors grouped in five different classes: the donor characteristics, the deposition conditions, the substrate nature, the environmental conditions and the applied enhancement techniques. The initial and aged compositions as well as the influence factors are thus considered in this article to provide a qualitative and quantitative review of all compounds identified in fingermark residue up to now. The analytical techniques used to obtain these data are also enumerated. This review highlights the fact that despite the numerous analytical processes that have already been proposed and tested to elucidate fingermark composition, advanced knowledge is still missing. Thus, there is a real need to conduct future research on the composition of fingermark residue, focusing particularly on quantitative measurements, aging kinetics and effects of influence factors. The results of future research are particularly important for advances in fingermark enhancement and dating technique developments.

Strength of family history in predicting levels of blood pressure, plasma glucose and cholesterol.

Objective: Limited information is available on the quantitative relationship between family history and the corresponding underlying traits. We analyzed these associations for blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, and cholesterol levels. Methods: Data were obtained from 6,102 Caucasian participants (2,903 men and 3,199 women) aged 35-75 years using a population-based cross-sectional survey in Switzerland. Cardiovascular disease risk factors were measured, and the corresponding family history was self-reported using a structured questionnaire. Results: The prevalence of a positive family history (in first-degree relatives) was 39.6% for hypertension, 22.3% for diabetes, and 29.0% for hypercholesterolemia. Family history was not known for at least one family member in 41.8% of participants for hypertension, 14.4% for diabetes, and 50.2% for hypercholesterolemia. A positive family history was strongly associated with higher levels of the corresponding trait, but not with the other traits. Participants who reported not to know their family history of hypertension had a higher systolic blood pressure than participants with a negative history. Sibling histories had higher positive predictive values than parental histories. The ability to discriminate, calibrate, and reclassify was best for the family history of hypertension. Conclusions: Family history of hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia was strongly associated with the corresponding dichotomized and continuous phenotypes.

Quantitative integration of geophysical and hydraulic data : from the local towards the regional scale range

Des progrès significatifs ont été réalisés dans le domaine de l'intégration quantitative des données géophysique et hydrologique l'échelle locale. Cependant, l'extension à de plus grandes échelles des approches correspondantes constitue encore un défi majeur. Il est néanmoins extrêmement important de relever ce défi pour développer des modèles fiables de flux des eaux souterraines et de transport de contaminant. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé une technique d'intégration des données hydrogéophysiques basée sur une procédure bayésienne de simulation séquentielle en deux étapes. Cette procédure vise des problèmes à plus grande échelle. L'objectif est de simuler la distribution d'un paramètre hydraulique cible à partir, d'une part, de mesures d'un paramètre géophysique pertinent qui couvrent l'espace de manière exhaustive, mais avec une faible résolution (spatiale) et, d'autre part, de mesures locales de très haute résolution des mêmes paramètres géophysique et hydraulique. Pour cela, mon algorithme lie dans un premier temps les données géophysiques de faible et de haute résolution à travers une procédure de réduction déchelle. Les données géophysiques régionales réduites sont ensuite reliées au champ du paramètre hydraulique à haute résolution. J'illustre d'abord l'application de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données à une base de données synthétiques réaliste. Celle-ci est constituée de mesures de conductivité hydraulique et électrique de haute résolution réalisées dans les mêmes forages ainsi que destimations des conductivités électriques obtenues à partir de mesures de tomographic de résistivité électrique (ERT) sur l'ensemble de l'espace. Ces dernières mesures ont une faible résolution spatiale. La viabilité globale de cette méthode est testée en effectuant les simulations de flux et de transport au travers du modèle original du champ de conductivité hydraulique ainsi que du modèle simulé. Les simulations sont alors comparées. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que la procédure dintégration des données proposée permet d'obtenir des estimations de la conductivité en adéquation avec la structure à grande échelle ainsi que des predictions fiables des caractéristiques de transports sur des distances de moyenne à grande échelle. Les résultats correspondant au scénario de terrain indiquent que l'approche d'intégration des données nouvellement mise au point est capable d'appréhender correctement les hétérogénéitées à petite échelle aussi bien que les tendances à gande échelle du champ hydraulique prévalent. Les résultats montrent également une flexibilté remarquable et une robustesse de cette nouvelle approche dintégration des données. De ce fait, elle est susceptible d'être appliquée à un large éventail de données géophysiques et hydrologiques, à toutes les gammes déchelles. Dans la deuxième partie de ma thèse, j'évalue en détail la viabilité du réechantillonnage geostatique séquentiel comme mécanisme de proposition pour les méthodes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) appliquées à des probmes inverses géophysiques et hydrologiques de grande dimension . L'objectif est de permettre une quantification plus précise et plus réaliste des incertitudes associées aux modèles obtenus. En considérant une série dexemples de tomographic radar puits à puits, j'étudie deux classes de stratégies de rééchantillonnage spatial en considérant leur habilité à générer efficacement et précisément des réalisations de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. Les résultats obtenus montrent que, malgré sa popularité, le réechantillonnage séquentiel est plutôt inefficace à générer des échantillons postérieurs indépendants pour des études de cas synthétiques réalistes, notamment pour le cas assez communs et importants où il existe de fortes corrélations spatiales entre le modèle et les paramètres. Pour résoudre ce problème, j'ai développé un nouvelle approche de perturbation basée sur une déformation progressive. Cette approche est flexible en ce qui concerne le nombre de paramètres du modèle et lintensité de la perturbation. Par rapport au rééchantillonage séquentiel, cette nouvelle approche s'avère être très efficace pour diminuer le nombre requis d'itérations pour générer des échantillons indépendants à partir de la distribution postérieure bayésienne. - Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending corresponding approaches beyond the local scale still represents a major challenge, yet is critically important for the development of reliable groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. To address this issue, I have developed a hydrogeophysical data integration technique based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation procedure that is specifically targeted towards larger-scale problems. The objective is to simulate the distribution of a target hydraulic parameter based on spatially exhaustive, but poorly resolved, measurements of a pertinent geophysical parameter and locally highly resolved, but spatially sparse, measurements of the considered geophysical and hydraulic parameters. To this end, my algorithm links the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a downscaling procedure before relating the downscaled regional-scale geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic parameter field. I first illustrate the application of this novel data integration approach to a realistic synthetic database consisting of collocated high-resolution borehole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities and spatially exhaustive, low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The overall viability of this method is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulations through the original and simulated hydraulic conductivity fields. The corresponding results indicate that the proposed data integration procedure does indeed allow for obtaining faithful estimates of the larger-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over medium- to regional-scale distances. The approach is then applied to a corresponding field scenario consisting of collocated high- resolution measurements of the electrical conductivity, as measured using a cone penetrometer testing (CPT) system, and the hydraulic conductivity, as estimated from electromagnetic flowmeter and slug test measurements, in combination with spatially exhaustive low-resolution electrical conductivity estimates obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The corresponding results indicate that the newly developed data integration approach is indeed capable of adequately capturing both the small-scale heterogeneity as well as the larger-scale trend of the prevailing hydraulic conductivity field. The results also indicate that this novel data integration approach is remarkably flexible and robust and hence can be expected to be applicable to a wide range of geophysical and hydrological data at all scale ranges. In the second part of my thesis, I evaluate in detail the viability of sequential geostatistical resampling as a proposal mechanism for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods applied to high-dimensional geophysical and hydrological inverse problems in order to allow for a more accurate and realistic quantification of the uncertainty associated with the thus inferred models. Focusing on a series of pertinent crosshole georadar tomographic examples, I investigated two classes of geostatistical resampling strategies with regard to their ability to efficiently and accurately generate independent realizations from the Bayesian posterior distribution. The corresponding results indicate that, despite its popularity, sequential resampling is rather inefficient at drawing independent posterior samples for realistic synthetic case studies, notably for the practically common and important scenario of pronounced spatial correlation between model parameters. To address this issue, I have developed a new gradual-deformation-based perturbation approach, which is flexible with regard to the number of model parameters as well as the perturbation strength. Compared to sequential resampling, this newly proposed approach was proven to be highly effective in decreasing the number of iterations required for drawing independent samples from the Bayesian posterior distribution.

Quantitative analysis of image factors in a cultural heritage tourist destination

The tourism consumer’s purchase decision process is, to a great extent, conditioned by the image the tourist has of the different destinations that make up his or her choice set. In a highly competitive international tourist market, those responsible for destinations’ promotion and development policies seek differentiation strategies so that they may position the destinations in the most suitable market segments for their product in order to improve their attractiveness to visitors and increase or consolidate the economic benefits that tourism activity generates in their territory. To this end, the main objective we set ourselves in this paper is the empirical analysis of the factors that determine the image formation of Tarragona city as a cultural heritage destination. Without a doubt, UNESCO’s declaration of Tarragona’s artistic and monumental legacies as World Heritage site in the year 2000 meant important international recognition of the quality of the cultural and patrimonial elements offered by the city to the visitors who choose it as a tourist destination. It also represents a strategic opportunity to boost the city’s promotion of tourism and its consolidation as a unique destination given its cultural and patrimonial characteristics. Our work is based on the use of structured and unstructured techniques to identify the factors that determine Tarragona’s tourist destination image and that have a decisive influence on visitors’ process of choice of destination. In addition to being able to ascertain Tarragona’s global tourist image, we consider that the heterogeneity of its visitors requires a more detailed study that enables us to segment visitor typology. We consider that the information provided by these results may prove of great interest to those responsible for local tourism policy, both when designing products and when promoting the destination.