On the success of generalized food deception in orchids : the role of sympatric rewarding species and pollinators

Résumé : La production de nectar assure aux plantes entomophiles un important succès reproducteur. Malgré cela, de nombreuses espèces d'orchidées ne produisent pas de nectar. La majorité de ces orchidées dites trompeuses exploitent simplement l'instinct des pollinisateurs généralistes, qui les pousse à chercher du nectar dans les fleurs. Afin d'optimiser la récolte de nectar, les pollinisateurs apprennent à différencier les fleurs trompeuses des nectarifères, et à concentrer leurs visites sur ces dernières, au détriment des plantes trompeuses. Chez les orchidées non autogames, la reproduction est assurée uniquement par les pollinisateurs. L'apprentissage des pollinisateurs a donc un impact négatif sur la reproduction des orchidées trompeuses. Cependant, les caractéristiques d'une espèce trompeuse et des espèces nectarifères au sein d'une communauté végétale peuvent affecter l'apprentissage et le taux de visite des pollinisateurs aux plantes trompeuses. J'ai réalisé des expériences en milieu naturel et en milieu contrôlé, pour déterminer si les caractéristiques florales, spatiales et temporelles des communautés affectent le taux de visite et le succès reproducteur de plantes trompeuses. Une agrégation spatiale élevée des plantes trompeuses et des plantes nectarifères diminue le succès reproducteur des plantes trompeuses. De plus, les pollinisateurs visitent plus souvent l'espèce trompeuse Iorsque ses fleurs sont de couleur similaire à celles de l'espèce nectarifère. Cet effet bénéfique de la similarité pour la couleur des fleurs s'accentue si les deux espèces sont mélangées et proches spatialement, ou si l'espèce trompeuse fleurit après l'espèce nectarifère. Enfin, le comportement des pollinisateurs n'est pas tout de suite affecté lorsque les caractéristiques de la communauté changent. Les caractéristiques des communautés végétales affectent donc la reproduction des espèces trompeuses. Bien que L'absence de coûts associés à la production de nectar, l'exportation efficace de pollen et la production de graines de qualité dont bénéficient les orchidées trompeuses favorisent Ieur maintien, les caractéristiques de la communauté peuvent aussi y contribuer. Mon étude fournit donc une explication alternative et complémentaire au maintien des orchidées trompeuses. Je conclus par une discussion des implications possibles de ces résultats sur le maintien et l'évolution des orchidées trompeuses, en tenant compte de la dynamique des caractéristiques des communautés végétales naturelles. Abstract : Despite the importance of producing food to ensure a high reproductive success, many orchid species lack such rewards. The majority of deceptive orchids simply exploit the instinctive food-foraging behaviour of generalist pollinators. This strategy is termed generalized food deception. To optimize their foraging efficiency, pollinators can learn to discriminate deceptive from rewarding flowers and to focus their visits to the rewarding plants, to the disadvantage of the deceptive plants. Because the reproductive success of non-autogamous orchids entirely relies on pollinator visitation rate, pollinator learning decreases the reproductive success of deceptive orchids. However, the characteristics of deceptive and rewarding plants within a community may affect pollinator learning and visitation rate to a deceptive orchid. Therefore, the biological characteristics of natural plant communities may be crucial to the maintenance of generalized food deceptive orchids. My study focused on the floral, spatial and temporal characteristics of plant communities. I used both in and ex sitar experiments to investigate whether these characteristics influence pollinator visitation rates and the reproductive success of deceptive orchids. A high spatial aggregation of both deceptive and rewarding species decreased the reproductive success of the deceptive species. Also, being of similar flower colour to rewarding sympatric species increased pollinator visitation rates to a deceptive species. The beneficial effect of flower colour similarity was even more pronounced when both species were spatially closely mingled or when the deceptive species flowered after the rewarding species. Finally, pollinator behaviour was unaffected in the short term by a change in the characteristics of plant communities, indicating that pollinators need time to learn under new conditions. Thus, the characteristics of plant communities may crucially affect the reproductive success of deceptive orchids. Although the absence of costs associated with nectar production, the efficient pollen export and the high seed quality of deceptive orchids may favour their maintenance, the characteristics of plant communities may also contribute to it. Therefore, my study provides an alternative yet complementary explanation to the maintenance of generalized food deceptive orchids in natural populations. I discuss the possible implications for the maintenance and the evolution of generalized food deceptive orchids with regards to the floral and temporal dynamics of natural plant communities.

Hypocretin (orexin) biology and the pathophysiology of narcolepsy with cataplexy.

The discovery of hypocretins (orexins) and their causal implication in narcolepsy is the most important advance in sleep research and sleep medicine since the discovery of rapid eye movement sleep. Narcolepsy with cataplexy is caused by hypocretin deficiency owing to destruction of most of the hypocretin-producing neurons in the hypothalamus. Ablation of hypocretin or hypocretin receptors also leads to narcolepsy phenotypes in animal models. Although the exact mechanism of hypocretin deficiency is unknown, evidence from the past 20 years strongly favours an immune-mediated or autoimmune attack, targeting specifically hypocretin neurons in genetically predisposed individuals. These neurons form an extensive network of projections throughout the brain and show activity linked to motivational behaviours. The hypothesis that a targeted immune-mediated or autoimmune attack causes the specific degeneration of hypocretin neurons arose mainly through the discovery of genetic associations, first with the HLA-DQB1*06:02 allele and then with the T-cell receptor α locus. Guided by these genetic findings and now awaiting experimental testing are models of the possible immune mechanisms by which a specific and localised brain cell population could become targeted by T-cell subsets. Great hopes for the identification of new targets for therapeutic intervention in narcolepsy also reside in the development of patient-derived induced pluripotent stem cell systems.

Predicting current and future spatial community patterns of plant functional traits

Community-level patterns of functional traits relate to community assembly and ecosystem functioning. By modelling the changes of different indices describing such patterns - trait means, extremes and diversity in communities - as a function of abiotic gradients, we could understand their drivers and build projections of the impact of global change on the functional components of biodiversity. We used five plant functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen content and seed mass) and non-woody vegetation plots to model several indices depicting community-level patterns of functional traits from a set of abiotic environmental variables (topographic, climatic and edaphic) over contrasting environmental conditions in a mountainous landscape. We performed a variation partitioning analysis to assess the relative importance of these variables for predicting patterns of functional traits in communities, and projected the best models under several climate change scenarios to examine future potential changes in vegetation functional properties. Not all indices of trait patterns within communities could be modelled with the same level of accuracy: the models for mean and extreme values of functional traits provided substantially better predictive accuracy than the models calibrated for diversity indices. Topographic and climatic factors were more important predictors of functional trait patterns within communities than edaphic predictors. Overall, model projections forecast an increase in mean vegetation height and in mean specific leaf area following climate warming. This trend was important at mid elevation particularly between 1000 and 2000 m asl. With this study we showed that topographic, climatic and edaphic variables can successfully model descriptors of community-level patterns of plant functional traits such as mean and extreme trait values. However, which factors determine the diversity of functional traits in plant communities remains unclear and requires more investigations.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

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Past and current climate change has already induced drastic biological changes. We need projections of how future climate change will further impact biological systems. Modeling is one approach to forecast future ecological impacts, but requires data for model parameterization. As collecting new data is costly, an alternative is to use the increasingly available georeferenced species occurrence and natural history databases. Here, we illustrate the use of such databases to assess climate change impacts on mountain flora. We show that these data can be used effectively to derive dynamic impact scenarios, suggesting upward migration of many species and possible extinctions when no suitable habitat is available at higher elevations. Systematically georeferencing all existing natural history collections data in mountain regions could allow a larger assessment of climate change impact on mountain ecosystems in Europe and elsewhere.

Issue review : fiscal year 2011 general fund budget projection.

This issue review provides an overall summary of Iowa's general fund budget. This issue review provides projections for the 2010 fiscal year and fiscal year 2011 budgets based on the October 7, 2009 revenue estimating conference's (REC) revenue estimate. The projection also includes the impact of the Governor's 10 percent across-the-board reduction to fiscal year 2010 general fund appropriations, and the Legislative Services Agency's most recent estimates of built-in and anticipated expenditures for fiscal year 2011.

2006 Cancer in Iowa Report, 2006

In 2006, an estimated 6,300 Iowans will die from cancer, 14 times the number caused by auto fatalities. Cancer is second only to heart disease as a cause of death. These projections are based upon mortality data the State Health Registry of Iowa receives from the Iowa Department of Public Health. The Registry has been recording the occurrence of cancer in Iowa since 1973, and is one of fourteen population-based registries and three supplementary registries nationwide providing data to the National Cancer Institute. In 2006 an estimated 16,000 cancers will be newly diagnosed among Iowa residents. With 2006 Cancer in Iowa the Registry makes a general report to the public on the status of cancer.

2012 Cancer in Iowa Report: A Focus on Lung Cancer, 2012

Cancer is a reportable disease as stated in the Iowa Administrative Code. Cancer data are collected by the State Health Registry of Iowa, located at The University of Iowa in the College of Public Health’s Department of epidemiology. The staff includes more than 50 people. Half of them, situated throughout the state, regularly visit hospitals, clinics, and medical laboratories in Iowa and neighboring states to collect cancer data. A follow-up program tracks more than 99 percent of the cancer survivors diagnosed since 1973. This program provides regular updates for follow-up and survival. The Registry maintains the confidentiality of the patients, physicians, and hospitals providing data. In 2012 data will be collected on a projected 17,500 new cancers among Iowa residents. In situ cases of bladder cancer are included in the projections for bladder cancer, to be in agreement with the definition of reportable cases of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the NCI. Since 1973 the Iowa Registry has been funded by the SEER Program of the NCI. Iowa represents rural and Midwestern populations and provides data included in many NCI publications. Beginning in 1990 about 5-10 percent of the Registry’s annual operating budget has been provided by the state of Iowa. Beginning in 2003, the University of Iowa has also been providing cost-sharing funds. The Registry also receives funding through grants and contracts with university, state, and national researchers investigating cancer-related topics.

Integrated application of geochemical and geophysical methods for hydrogeological impact assessment for tunneling in fractured rock

The interaction of tunneling with groundwater is a problem both from an environmental and an engineering point of view. In fact, tunnel drilling may cause a drawdown of piezometric levels and water inflows into tunnels that may cause problems during excavation of the tunnel. While the influence of tunneling on the regional groundwater systems may be adequately predicted in porous media using analytical solutions, such an approach is difficult to apply in fractured rocks. Numerical solutions are preferable and various conceptual approaches have been proposed to describe and model groundwater flow through fractured rock masses, ranging from equivalent continuum models to discrete fracture network simulation models. However, their application needs many preliminary investigations on the behavior of the groundwater system based on hydrochemical and structural data. To study large scale flow systems in fractured rocks of mountainous terrains, a comprehensive study was conducted in southern Switzerland, using as case studies two infrastructures actually under construction: (i) the Monte Ceneri base railway tunnel (Ticino), and the (ii) San Fedele highway tunnel (Roveredo, Graubiinden). The chosen approach in this study combines the temporal and spatial variation of geochemical and geophysical measurements. About 60 localities from both surface and underlying tunnels were temporarily and spatially monitored during more than one year. At first, the project was focused on the collection of hydrochemical and structural data. A number of springs, selected in the area surrounding the infrastructures, were monitored for discharge, electric conductivity, pH, and temperature. Water samples (springs, tunnel inflows and rains) were taken for isotopic analysis; in particular the stable isotope composition (δ2Η, δ180 values) can reflect the origin of the water, because of spatial (recharge altitude, topography, etc.) and temporal (seasonal) effects on precipitation which in turn strongly influence the isotopic composition of groundwater. Tunnel inflows in the accessible parts of the tunnels were also sampled and, if possible, monitored with time. Noble-gas concentrations and their isotope ratios were used in selected locations to better understand the origin and the circulation of the groundwater. In addition, electrical resistivity and VLF-type electromagnetic surveys were performed to identify water bearing fractures and/or weathered areas that could be intersected at depth during tunnel construction. The main goal of this work was to demonstrate that these hydrogeological data and geophysical methods, combined with structural and hydrogeological information, can be successfully used in order to develop hydrogeological conceptual models of the groundwater flow in regions to be exploited for tunnels. The main results of the project are: (i) to have successfully tested the application of electrical resistivity and VLF-electromagnetic surveys to asses water-bearing zones during tunnel drilling; (ii) to have verified the usefulness of noble gas, major ion and stable isotope compositions as proxies for the detection of faults and to understand the origin of the groundwater and its flow regimes (direct rain water infiltration or groundwater of long residence time); and (iii) to have convincingly tested the combined application of a geochemical and geophysical approach to assess and predict the vulnerability of springs to tunnel drilling. - L'interférence entre eaux souterraines et des tunnels pose des problèmes environnementaux et de génie civile. En fait, la construction d'un tunnel peut faire abaisser le niveau des nappes piézométriques et faire infiltrer de l'eau dans le tunnel et ainsi créer des problème pendant l'excavation. Alors que l'influence de la construction d'un tunnel sur la circulation régionale de l'eau souterraine dans des milieux poreux peut être prédite relativement facilement par des solution analytiques de modèles, ceci devient difficile dans des milieux fissurés. Dans ce cas-là, des solutions numériques sont préférables et plusieurs approches conceptuelles ont été proposées pour décrire et modéliser la circulation d'eau souterraine à travers les roches fissurées, en allant de modèles d'équivalence continue à des modèles de simulation de réseaux de fissures discrètes. Par contre, leur application demande des investigations importantes concernant le comportement du système d'eau souterraine basées sur des données hydrochimiques et structurales. Dans le but d'étudier des grands systèmes de circulation d'eau souterraine dans une région de montagnes, une étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction: (i) Le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri (Tessin) et (ii) le tunnel routière de San Fedele (Roveredo, Grisons). L'approche choisie dans cette étude est la combinaison de variations temporelles et spatiales des mesures géochimiques et géophysiques. Environs 60 localités situées à la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels soujacents ont été suiviès du point de vue temporel et spatial pendant plus de un an. Dans un premier temps le projet se focalisait sur la collecte de données hydrochimiques et structurales. Un certain nombre de sources, sélectionnées dans les environs des infrastructures étudiées ont été suivies pour le débit, la conductivité électrique, le pH et la température. De l'eau (sources, infiltration d'eau de tunnel et pluie) a été échantillonnés pour des analyses isotopiques; ce sont surtout les isotopes stables (δ2Η, δ180) qui peuvent indiquer l'origine d'une eaux, à cause de la dépendance d'effets spatiaux (altitude de recharge, topographie etc.) ainsi que temporels (saisonaux) sur les précipitations météoriques , qui de suite influencent ainsi la composition isotopique de l'eau souterraine. Les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels dans les parties accessibles ont également été échantillonnées et si possible suivies au cours du temps. La concentration de gaz nobles et leurs rapports isotopiques ont également été utilisées pour quelques localités pour mieux comprendre l'origine et la circulation de l'eau souterraine. En plus, des campagnes de mesures de la résistivité électrique et électromagnétique de type VLF ont été menées afin d'identifier des zone de fractures ou d'altération qui pourraient interférer avec les tunnels en profondeur pendant la construction. Le but principal de cette étude était de démontrer que ces données hydrogéologiques et géophysiques peuvent être utilisées avec succès pour développer des modèles hydrogéologiques conceptionels de tunnels. Les résultats principaux de ce travail sont : i) d'avoir testé avec succès l'application de méthodes de la tomographie électrique et des campagnes de mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF afin de trouver des zones riches en eau pendant l'excavation d'un tunnel ; ii) d'avoir prouvé l'utilité des gaz nobles, des analyses ioniques et d'isotopes stables pour déterminer l'origine de l'eau infiltrée (de la pluie par le haut ou ascendant de l'eau remontant des profondeurs) et leur flux et pour déterminer la position de failles ; et iii) d'avoir testé d'une manière convainquant l'application combinée de méthodes géochimiques et géophysiques pour juger et prédire la vulnérabilité de sources lors de la construction de tunnels. - L'interazione dei tunnel con il circuito idrico sotterraneo costituisce un problema sia dal punto di vista ambientale che ingegneristico. Lo scavo di un tunnel puô infatti causare abbassamenti dei livelli piezometrici, inoltre le venute d'acqua in galleria sono un notevole problema sia in fase costruttiva che di esercizio. Nel caso di acquiferi in materiale sciolto, l'influenza dello scavo di un tunnel sul circuito idrico sotterraneo, in genere, puô essere adeguatamente predetta attraverso l'applicazione di soluzioni analitiche; al contrario un approccio di questo tipo appare inadeguato nel caso di scavo in roccia. Per gli ammassi rocciosi fratturati sono piuttosto preferibili soluzioni numeriche e, a tal proposito, sono stati proposti diversi approcci concettuali; nella fattispecie l'ammasso roccioso puô essere modellato come un mezzo discreto ο continuo équivalente. Tuttavia, una corretta applicazione di qualsiasi modello numerico richiede necessariamente indagini preliminari sul comportamento del sistema idrico sotterraneo basate su dati idrogeochimici e geologico strutturali. Per approfondire il tema dell'idrogeologia in ammassi rocciosi fratturati tipici di ambienti montani, è stato condotto uno studio multidisciplinare nel sud della Svizzera sfruttando come casi studio due infrastrutture attualmente in costruzione: (i) il tunnel di base del Monte Ceneri (canton Ticino) e (ii) il tunnel autostradale di San Fedele (Roveredo, canton Grigioni). L'approccio di studio scelto ha cercato di integrare misure idrogeochimiche sulla qualité e quantité delle acque e indagini geofisiche. Nella fattispecie sono state campionate le acque in circa 60 punti spazialmente distribuiti sia in superficie che in sotterraneo; laddove possibile il monitoraggio si è temporalmente prolungato per più di un anno. In una prima fase, il progetto di ricerca si è concentrato sull'acquisizione dati. Diverse sorgenti, selezionate nelle aree di possibile influenza attorno allé infrastrutture esaminate, sono state monitorate per quel che concerne i parametri fisico-chimici: portata, conduttività elettrica, pH e temperatura. Campioni d'acqua sono stati prelevati mensilmente su sorgenti, venute d'acqua e precipitazioni, per analisi isotopiche; nella fattispecie, la composizione in isotopi stabili (δ2Η, δ180) tende a riflettere l'origine delle acque, in quanto, variazioni sia spaziali (altitudine di ricarica, topografia, etc.) che temporali (variazioni stagionali) della composizione isotopica delle precipitazioni influenzano anche le acque sotterranee. Laddove possibile, sono state campionate le venute d'acqua in galleria sia puntualmente che al variare del tempo. Le concentrazioni dei gas nobili disciolti nell'acqua e i loro rapporti isotopici sono stati altresi utilizzati in alcuni casi specifici per meglio spiegare l'origine delle acque e le tipologie di circuiti idrici sotterranei. Inoltre, diverse indagini geofisiche di resistività elettrica ed elettromagnetiche a bassissima frequenza (VLF) sono state condotte al fine di individuare le acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso. Principale obiettivo di questo lavoro è stato dimostrare come misure idrogeochimiche ed indagini geofisiche possano essere integrate alio scopo di sviluppare opportuni modelli idrogeologici concettuali utili per lo scavo di opere sotterranee. I principali risultati ottenuti al termine di questa ricerca sono stati: (i) aver testato con successo indagini geofisiche (ERT e VLF-EM) per l'individuazione di acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso e che possano essere causa di venute d'acqua in galleria durante lo scavo di tunnel; (ii) aver provato l'utilità di analisi su gas nobili, ioni maggiori e isotopi stabili per l'individuazione di faglie e per comprendere l'origine delle acque sotterranee (acque di recente infiltrazione ο provenienti da circolazioni profonde); (iii) aver testato in maniera convincente l'integrazione delle indagini geofisiche e di misure geochimiche per la valutazione della vulnérabilité delle sorgenti durante lo scavo di nuovi tunnel. - "La NLFA (Nouvelle Ligne Ferroviaire à travers les Alpes) axe du Saint-Gothard est le plus important projet de construction de Suisse. En bâtissant la nouvelle ligne du Saint-Gothard, la Suisse réalise un des plus grands projets de protection de l'environnement d'Europe". Cette phrase, qu'on lit comme présentation du projet Alptransit est particulièrement éloquente pour expliquer l'utilité des nouvelles lignes ferroviaires transeuropéens pour le développement durable. Toutefois, comme toutes grandes infrastructures, la construction de nouveaux tunnels ont des impacts inévitables sur l'environnement. En particulier, le possible drainage des eaux souterraines réalisées par le tunnel peut provoquer un abaissement du niveau des nappes piézométriques. De plus, l'écoulement de l'eau à l'intérieur du tunnel, conduit souvent à des problèmes d'ingénierie. Par exemple, d'importantes infiltrations d'eau dans le tunnel peuvent compliquer les phases d'excavation, provoquant un retard dans l'avancement et dans le pire des cas, peuvent mettre en danger la sécurité des travailleurs. Enfin, l'infiltration d'eau peut être un gros problème pendant le fonctionnement du tunnel. Du point de vue de la science, avoir accès à des infrastructures souterraines représente une occasion unique d'obtenir des informations géologiques en profondeur et pour échantillonner des eaux autrement inaccessibles. Dans ce travail, nous avons utilisé une approche pluridisciplinaire qui intègre des mesures d'étude hydrogéochimiques effectués sur les eaux de surface et des investigations géophysiques indirects, tels que la tomographic de résistivité électrique (TRE) et les mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF. L'étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction, qui sont le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri, une partie du susmentionné projet Alptransit, situé entièrement dans le canton Tessin, et le tunnel routière de San Fedele, situé a Roveredo dans le canton des Grisons. Le principal objectif était de montrer comment il était possible d'intégrer les deux approches, géophysiques et géochimiques, afin de répondre à la question de ce que pourraient être les effets possibles dû au drainage causés par les travaux souterrains. L'accès aux galeries ci-dessus a permis une validation adéquate des enquêtes menées confirmant, dans chaque cas, les hypothèses proposées. A cette fin, nous avons fait environ 50 profils géophysiques (28 imageries électrique bidimensionnels et 23 électromagnétiques) dans les zones de possible influence par le tunnel, dans le but d'identifier les fractures et les discontinuités dans lesquelles l'eau souterraine peut circuler. De plus, des eaux ont été échantillonnés dans 60 localités situées la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels subjacents, le suivi mensuelle a duré plus d'un an. Nous avons mesurés tous les principaux paramètres physiques et chimiques: débit, conductivité électrique, pH et température. De plus, des échantillons d'eaux ont été prélevés pour l'analyse mensuelle des isotopes stables de l'hydrogène et de l'oxygène (δ2Η, δ180). Avec ces analyses, ainsi que par la mesure des concentrations des gaz rares dissous dans les eaux et de leurs rapports isotopiques que nous avons effectués dans certains cas spécifiques, il était possible d'expliquer l'origine des différents eaux souterraines, les divers modes de recharge des nappes souterraines, la présence de possible phénomènes de mélange et, en général, de mieux expliquer les circulations d'eaux dans le sous-sol. Le travail, même en constituant qu'une réponse partielle à une question très complexe, a permis d'atteindre certains importants objectifs. D'abord, nous avons testé avec succès l'applicabilité des méthodes géophysiques indirectes (TRE et électromagnétiques de type VLF) pour prédire la présence d'eaux souterraines dans le sous-sol des massifs rocheux. De plus, nous avons démontré l'utilité de l'analyse des gaz rares, des isotopes stables et de l'analyses des ions majeurs pour la détection de failles et pour comprendre l'origine des eaux souterraines (eau de pluie par le haut ou eau remontant des profondeurs). En conclusion, avec cette recherche, on a montré que l'intégration des ces informations (géophysiques et géochimiques) permet le développement de modèles conceptuels appropriés, qui permettant d'expliquer comment l'eau souterraine circule. Ces modèles permettent de prévoir les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels et de prédire la vulnérabilité de sources et des autres ressources en eau lors de construction de tunnels.

Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Introduction of snow and geomorphic disturbance variables into predictive models of alpine plant distribution in the Western Swiss Alps

Indirect topographic variables have been used successfully as surrogates for disturbance processes in plant species distribution models (SDM) in mountain environments. However, no SDM studies have directly tested the performance of disturbance variables. In this study, we developed two disturbance variables: a geomorphic index (GEO) and an index of snow redistribution by wind (SNOW). These were developed in order to assess how they improved both the fit and predictive power of presenceabsence SDM based on commonly used topoclimatic (TC) variables for 91 plants in the Western Swiss Alps. The individual contribution of the disturbance variables was compared to TC variables. Maps of models were prepared to spatially test the effect of disturbance variables. On average, disturbance variables significantly improved the fit but not the predictive power of the TC models and their individual contribution was weak (5.6% for GEO and 3.3% for SNOW). However their maximum individual contribution was important (24.7% and 20.7%). Finally, maps including disturbance variables (i) were significantly divergent from TC models in terms of predicted suitable surfaces and connectivity between potential habitats, and (ii) were interpreted as more ecologically relevant. Disturbance variables did not improve the transferability of models at the local scale in a complex mountain system, and the performance and contribution of these variables were highly species-specific. However, improved spatial projections and change in connectivity are important issues when preparing projections under climate change because the future range size of the species will determine the sensitivity to changing conditions.

Statistical mechanics of multi-edge networks

Statistical properties of binary complex networks are well understood and recently many attempts have been made to extend this knowledge to weighted ones. There are, however, subtle yet important considerations to be made regarding the nature of the weights used in this generalization. Weights can be either continuous or discrete magnitudes, and in the latter case, they can additionally have undistinguishable or distinguishable nature. This fact has not been addressed in the literature insofar and has deep implications on the network statistics. In this work we face this problem introducing multiedge networks as graphs where multiple (distinguishable) connections between nodes are considered. We develop a statistical mechanics framework where it is possible to get information about the most relevant observables given a large spectrum of linear and nonlinear constraints including those depending both on the number of multiedges per link and their binary projection. The latter case is particularly interesting as we show that binary projections can be understood from multiedge processes. The implications of these results are important as many real-agent-based problems mapped onto graphs require this treatment for a proper characterization of their collective behavior.

Radiation risks : a way to inform patient : 3.10

Purpose: Diagnostic radiology involving ionizing radiation often leads to crucial information but also involves risk. Estimated cancer risks associated with CT range between 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10 000, depending on age and exposure settings. The aim of this contribution is to provide radiologists a way to inform a patient about these risks on a collective and individual base. Materials and methods: After a brief review of the effects of ionizing radiations, conversion from dose indicators into effective dose will be presented for radiography, fluoroscopy and CT. The Diagnostic Reference Level (DRL) concept will be then introduced to enable the reader to compare the level of exposure of various examinations. Finally, the limit of effective dose will be explained and risk projections after various radiological procedures for adults and children will be presented. Results: From an individual standpoint the benefit of a well justified and optimized CT examination clearly outweigh its risk of inducing a fatal cancer. The uncertainties associated with the effective dose concept should be kept in mind in order to avoid cancer risk projections after an examination on an individual basis. Conclusion: Risk factors or effective dose are not the simplest tools to communicate when dealing with radiological risks. Thus, a set of categories should be preferred as proposed in the ICRP (International Commission on Radiation Protection) report 99.

Plannification hospitalière: Quel scénario démographique pour prédire les besoins en soins hospitaliers?

Contexte: L'évolution démographique est un facteur essentiel pour la planification hospitalière. Le scenario démographique moyen de l'OFS ne répond que partiellement aux exigences de la planification pour le canton du Valais ; il ne permet pas de faire des projections par région hospitalière. De plus, la croissance en 2010 et 2011 selon le scenario OFS est inferieure a celle observée. Nous avons développe un scenario ajuste en tenant compte de l'évolution récente de la population valaisanne, et ce par région hospitalière. Méthode: La population de départ et les taux d'accroissement du au solde naturel et migratoire 2012 ont été déterminés à partir des données réelles 2011. Entre 2002 et 2011, le taux d'accroissement migratoire a fortement varie. Les taux 2011 ont donc été ajustés en fonction des taux moyens d'accroissement migratoire 2002-2011 calcules pour chaque région hospitalière. Pour les années 2013-2025, les écarts de taux d'accroissement naturel et migratoire du scenario OFS ont été repris tel quel. Résultats: Entre 2000 et 2010, la population valaisanne est passée de 276'170 a 312'684 habitants (+13.2%). Entre 2012 et 2025, les deux scenarios prévoient une poursuite de la croissance de la population, mais de manière moins soutenue, particulièrement selon le scenario OFS. Ainsi, en 2020, la population devrait atteindre 348'783 habitants (+11.5%) selon le scenario ajuste et 330'616 (+5.7%) selon le scenario OFS. La part de la population âgée de 65 ans et plus passera de 17.1% en 2010 a 20.5% en 2020 selon le scenario ajuste et a 21.4% selon le scenario OFS. Conclusion: Au vu des limites du scenario moyen de l'OFS, il est pertinent de développer des alternatives tenant compte au mieux des spécificités démographiques cantonales. Le scenario ajuste prédit une croissance plus forte de la population, ce qui a un impact important sur les besoins en soins hospitaliers et la planification hospitalière.