Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Household-based malaria control in a highly endemic area of Africa (Tanzania): determinants of transmission and disease and indicators for monitoring - Kilombero Malaria Project

The Kilombero Malaria Project (KMP) attemps to define opperationally useful indicators of levels of transmission and disease and health system relevant monitoring indicators to evaluate the impact of disease control at the community or health facility level. The KMP is longitudinal community based study (N = 1024) in rural Southern Tanzania, investigating risk factors for malarial morbidity and developing household based malaria control strategies. Biweekly morbidity and bimonthly serological, parasitological and drug consumption surveys are carried out in all study households. Mosquito densities are measured biweekly in 50 sentinel houses by timed light traps. Determinants of transmission and indicators of exposure were not strongly aggregated within households. Subjective morbidity (recalled fever), objective morbidity (elevated body temperature and high parasitaemia) and chloroquine consumption were strongly aggregated within a few households. Nested analysis of anti-NANP40 antibody suggest that only approximately 30% of the titer variance can explained by household clustering and that the largest proportion of antibody titer variability must be explained by non-measured behavioral determinants relating to an individual's level of exposure within a household. Indicators for evaluation and monitoring and outcome measures are described within the context of health service management to describe control measure output in terms of community effectiveness.

Multi-level SLA-driven resource management on Cloud Providers

Nowadays, service providers in the Cloud offer complex services ready to be used as it was a commodity like water or electricity to their customers with any other extra effort for them. However, providing these services implies a high management effort which requires a lot of human interaction. Furthermore, an efficient resource management mechanism considering only provider's resources is, though necessary, not enough, because the provider's profit is limited by the amount of resources it owns. Dynamically outsourcing resources to other providers in response to demand variation avoids this problem and makes the provider to get more profit. A key technology for achieving these goals is virtualization which facilitates provider's management and provides on-demand virtual environments, which are isolated and consolidated in order to achieve a better utilization of the provider's resources. Nevertheless, dealing with some virtualization capabilities implies an effort for the user in order to take benefit from them. In order to avoid this problem, we are contributing the research community with a virtualized environment manager which aims to provide virtual machines that fulfils with the user requirements. Another challenge is sharing resources among different federated Cloud providers while exploiting the features of virtualization in a new approach for facilitating providers' management. This project aims for reducing provider's costs and at the same time fulfilling the quality of service agreed with the customers while maximizing the provider's revenue. It considers resource management at several layers, namely locally to each node in the provider, among different nodes in the provider, and among different federated providers. This latter layer supports the novel capabilities of outsourcing when the local resources are not enough to fulfil the users demand, and offering resources to other providers when the local resources are underused.

Ra isotopes and Rn as a tool for the water management resources: the Alberquillas aquifer (Málaga-Granada)

The aim of this project is to evaluate the importance of submarine groundwater discharge sector in order to improve the water balance in Málaga-Granada region. The approach of this study arose from the the geology and the aquifers that indicate that there could be some discharge to the sea between Maro (Málaga) and Almuñécar (Granada) and the Andalusian’s Government and its Water Agence were really interested in evaluating it because there is a lot of population and few water available and the magnitude of groundwater discharge has generated controversy. Is well known that water is a scarce resource in this area and it’s very important for the society and for the environment. The legislation, the water policies, the knowledge of the aquifer and the geology, the water dynamics, the land use and the water perception in the society might help the management of this resource not just in Andalusia but in all the Mediterranean basin. The main objective is to evaluate the submarine groundwater discharge from the Alberquillas Aqufier to the sea by measuring 222Rn and Ra isotopes. Specific objectives have been established to achieve the main objective: A) Reveal the importance of water resources in the Mediterranean basin; B) Learn radiometric techniques for the study of groundwater discharge to the sea; C) Learn of sampling techniques of water samples for the measurement of Ra and Rn; D) Learn the techniques for measuring Ra (RaDeCC) and Rn (RAD7); E) Interpretation and discussion of results. During this semester, and in addition of the present study in Málaga- Granada region, the author has participated in the initial phase (sampling, analysis and interpretation of preliminary results) of other research projects focused on the study of submarine groundwater discharges through the use of Ra isotopes and 222Rn. These studies have been developed in different areas, including Alt Empordà (Roses and Sant Pere Pescador), Maresme with CMIMA’s group (Mediterranean Center for Marine and Environmental Research), Delta de l’Ebre, Peñíscola and Mallorca with the IMEDEA’s group (Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies).

Opportunity to shape the prevention and management of obesity

Cooperation and Working Together (CAWT), the cross border health and social care partnership has been working with the Departments of Health to progress a three year cross border obesity prevention and management project aimed at families. They have been successful in securing funding from the EU INTERREG IVA programme. A planning workshop focussing on this will be held on Friday 26 June 2009.

Visual Management Vinotec V.1.0

El projecte amb nom clau Visual Management Vinotec neix de la necessitat d'administrar i gestionar el catàleg de productes d'una empresa que es dedica a la distribució de licors espirituosos (conyacs i whiskies), generesos (Jerez), vins i caves. Es tracta d'una eina web destinada als professionals del món dels destil·lats i del món vinícola.

Learning collaboration in General Internal Medicine: a pilot project for undergraduate students in nursing, physiotherapy and medicine

Background: A form of education called Interprofessional Education (IPE) occurs when two or more professions learn with, from and about each other. The purpose of IPE is to improve collaboration and the quality of care. Today, IPE is considered as a key educational approach for students in the health professions. IPE is highly effective when delivered in active patient care, such as in clinical placements. General internal medicine (GIM) is a core discipline where hospital-based clinical placements are mandatory for students in many health professions. However, few interprofessional (IP) clinical placements in GIM have been implemented. We designed such a placement. Placement design: The placement took place in the Department of Internal Medicine at the CHUV. It involved students from nursing, physiotherapy and medicine. The students were in their last year before graduation. Students formed teams consisting of one student from each profession. Each team worked in the same unit and had to take care of the same patient. The placement lasted three weeks. It included formal IP sessions, the most important being facilitated discussions or "briefings" (3x/w) during which the students discussed patient care and management. Four teams of students eventually took part in this project. Method: We performed a type of evaluation research called formative evaluation. This aimed at (1) understanding the educational experience and (2) assessing the impact of the placement on student learning. We collected quantitative data with pre-post clerkship questionnaires. We also collected qualitative data with two Focus Groups (FG) discussions at the end of the placement. The FG were audiotaped and transcribed. A thematic analysis was then performed. Results: We focused on the qualitative data, since the quantitative data lacked of statistical power due to the small numbers of students (N = 11). Five themes emerged from the FG analysis: (1) Learning of others' roles, (2) Learning collaborative competences, (3) Striking a balance between acquiring one's own professional competences and interprofessional competences, (4) Barriers to apply learnt IP competences in the future and (5) Advantages and disadvantages of IP briefings. Conclusions: Our IP clinical placement in GIM appeared to help students learn other professionals' roles and collaborative skills. Some challenges (e.g. finding the same patient for each team) were identified and will require adjustments.

Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP)

The Myocardial Infarction Audit Project (MINAP) began in late 1998 when a broadly based steering group developed a dataset for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This allowed clinicians to examine the management of myocardial infarction within their hospitals against targets specified by the National Service Framework for Coronary Heart Disease (NSF). The audit project produces annual reports "How the NHS manages heart attacks" to show the performance of hospitals, ambulance services and cardiac networks in England and Wales against national standards and targets for the care of heart attack patients. MINAP has recently changed its name from the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project to the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project to reflect the importance of all acute coronary syndromes.

National Health System Virtual Library Viability Project (Spain)

Introduction: The ICT progress and development are making the set up of virtual libraries easier, with great advantages for users in terms of immediate access to vast amounts of library information, online resources, and services. Most of the Autonomous Spanish Regions are presently working on the establishment of virtual libraries with the aim of optimising economic resources destined to subscribe bibliographic information sources and offering qualified documentary services to Public Health System Professionals. The Ministry of Health and Social Policy, an institution unifying health matters, issued this Project to study the National Health System Virtual Library creation viability, in order to guarantee relevant scientific information access equity. Objectives: - To study the National Health System (NHS) Virtual Library set up viability. - To elaborate the Spanish territory health information resource map. - To identify the appropriate technological model. - To identify the documentary services to be offered. - To identify the more optimum functional, structural model. - To identify the economic model. Method: - To create a chart organization for the project´s management. - To organize Work groups. - To elaborate a standardised survey model for the libraries of the autonomous regions. Results: - Identification of the different Autonomous Region libraries of health models. - Recommendations for the NHS Virtual Library: - Functional, structural model - Technological model - Financial-economic model Conclusions: The fact that the Virtual Library would be an invaluable space for access to quality scientific information, as well as that the minimum services could be offered to every NHS user regardless of geographical situation, is confirmed. Accordingly, we thought about three different models to develop the Virtual Library, depending on this initial analysis, which will allow us to establish the most suitable model for the Spanish National Health System, considering its economic, functional and technological recommendations. It would be necessary to do a study for the NHS Virtual Library Set Up following the recommendations arising from this Project.

Unanswered clinical questions in the management of cardiometabolic risk in the elderly: a statement of the Spanish society of internal medicine.

BACKGROUND Despite the progressive increase in life expectancy and the relationship between aging with multi-morbidities and the increased use of healthcare resources, current clinical practice guidelines (CPG) on cardiometabolic risk cannot be adequately applied to elderly subjects with multiple chronic conditions. Its management frequently becomes complicated by both, an excessive use of medications that may lead to overtreatment, drug interactions and increased toxicity, and errors in dosage and non-compliance. Concerned by this gap, the Spanish Society of Internal Medicine created a group of independent experts on cardiometabolic risk who discussed what they considered to be unanswered questions in the management of elderly patients. DISCUSSION Current guidelines do not specifically address the problem of elderly with multiple chronic conditions. For this reason, the combined use of the limited available evidence, clinical experience and common sense, could all help us to address this unmet need. In very old people, life expectancy and functionality are the most important factors for guiding potential treatments. Their higher propensity to develop serious adverse events and their shorter lifespan could prevent them from obtaining the potential benefits of the interventions administered. SUMMARY In this document, experts on cardiometabolic risk factors have established a number of consensual recommendations that have taken into account international guidelines and clinical experience, and have also considered the more effective use of healthcare resources. This document is intended to provide general recommendations for clinicians and to promote the effective use of procedures and medications.

Resource management research in Passive Optical Networks (PON)

Next Generation Access Networks (NGAN) are the new step forward to deliver broadband services and to facilitate the integration of different technologies. It is plausible to assume that, from a technological standpoint, the Future Internet will be composed of long-range high-speed optical networks; a number of wireless networks at the edge; and, in between, several access technologies, among which, the Passive Optical Networks (xPON) are very likely to succeed, due to their simplicity, low-cost, and increased bandwidth. Among the different PON technologies, the Ethernet-PON (EPON) is the most promising alternative to satisfy operator and user needs, due to its cost, flexibility and interoperability with other technologies. One of the most interesting challenges in such technologies relates to the scheduling and allocation of resources in the upstream (shared) channel. The aim of this research project is to study and evaluate current contributions and propose new efficient solutions to address the resource allocation issues in Next Generation EPON (NG-EPON). Key issues in this context are future end-user needs, integrated quality of service (QoS) support and optimized service provisioning for real time and elastic flows. This project will unveil research opportunities, issue recommendations and propose novel mechanisms associated with the convergence within heterogeneous access networks and will thus serve as a basis for long-term research projects in this direction. The project has served as a platform for the generation of new concepts and solutions that were published in national and international conferences, scientific journals and also in book chapter. We expect some more research publications in addition to the ones mentioned to be generated in a few months.

Disruption management

The main objective of this project is to model the ARP (Aircraft Recovery Problem) from a constraint programming (CP) point of view. The information required for this project is extracted from previous papers that cope with the problem using heuristics, metaheuristics or using network-models. Also, two scenarios will be tested to verify that the implementation is correct.

Knowledge management for systems biology a general and visually driven framework applied to translational medicine

Background: To enhance our understanding of complex biological systems like diseases we need to put all of the available data into context and use this to detect relations, pattern and rules which allow predictive hypotheses to be defined. Life science has become a data rich science with information about the behaviour of millions of entities like genes, chemical compounds, diseases, cell types and organs, which are organised in many different databases and/or spread throughout the literature. Existing knowledge such as genotype - phenotype relations or signal transduction pathways must be semantically integrated and dynamically organised into structured networks that are connected with clinical and experimental data. Different approaches to this challenge exist but so far none has proven entirely satisfactory. Results: To address this challenge we previously developed a generic knowledge management framework, BioXM™, which allows the dynamic, graphic generation of domain specific knowledge representation models based on specific objects and their relations supporting annotations and ontologies. Here we demonstrate the utility of BioXM for knowledge management in systems biology as part of the EU FP6 BioBridge project on translational approaches to chronic diseases. From clinical and experimental data, text-mining results and public databases we generate a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) knowledge base and demonstrate its use by mining specific molecular networks together with integrated clinical and experimental data. Conclusions: We generate the first semantically integrated COPD specific public knowledge base and find that for the integration of clinical and experimental data with pre-existing knowledge the configuration based set-up enabled by BioXM reduced implementation time and effort for the knowledge base compared to similar systems implemented as classical software development projects. The knowledgebase enables the retrieval of sub-networks including protein-protein interaction, pathway, gene - disease and gene - compound data which are used for subsequent data analysis, modelling and simulation. Pre-structured queries and reports enhance usability; establishing their use in everyday clinical settings requires further simplification with a browser based interface which is currently under development.

The role of computational fluid dynamics in the management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: a clinicians' view

Objective: The importance of hemodynamics in the etiopathogenesis of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) is widely accepted.Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is being used increasingly for hemodynamic predictions. However, alogn with thecontinuing development and validation of these tools, it is imperative to collect the opinion of the clinicians. Methods: A workshopon CFD was conducted during the European Society of Minimally Invasive Neurological Therapy (ESMINT) Teaching Course,Lisbon, Portugal. 36 delegates, mostly clinicians, performed supervised CFD analysis for an IA, using the @neuFuse softwaredeveloped within the European project @neurIST. Feedback on the workshop was collected and analyzed. The performancewas assessed on a scale of 1 to 4 and, compared with experts’ performance. Results: Current dilemmas in the management ofunruptured IAs remained the most important motivating factor to attend the workshop and majority of participants showedinterest in participating in a multicentric trial. The participants achieved an average score of 2.52 (range 0–4) which was 63% (range 0–100%) of an expert user. Conclusions: Although participants showed a manifest interest in CFD, there was a clear lack ofawareness concerning the role of hemodynamics in the etiopathogenesis of IAs and the use of CFD in this context. More effortstherefore are required to enhance understanding of the clinicians in the subject.

Toward integrated management of cerebral aneurysms

In the last few years, some of the visionary concepts behind the virtual physiological human began to be demonstrated on various clinical domains, showing great promise for improving healthcare management. In the current work, we provide an overview of image- and biomechanics-based techniques that, when put together, provide a patient-specific pipeline for the management of intracranial aneurysms. The derivation and subsequent integration of morphological, morphodynamic, haemodynamic and structural analyses allow us to extract patient-specific models and information from which diagnostic and prognostic descriptors can be obtained. Linking such new indices with relevant clinical events should bring new insights into the processes behind aneurysm genesis, growth and rupture. The development of techniques for modelling endovascular devices such as stents and coils allows the evaluation of alternative treatment scenarios before the intervention takes place and could also contribute to the understanding and improved design of more effective devices. A key element to facilitate the clinical take-up of all these developments is their comprehensive validation. Although a number of previously published results have shown the accuracy and robustness of individual components, further efforts should be directed to demonstrate the diagnostic and prognostic efficacy of these advanced tools through large-scale clinical trials.