Conditional simulation of random fields by successive residuals

This paper presents a new approach to the LU decomposition method for the simulation of stationary and ergodic random fields. The approach overcomes the size limitations of LU and is suitable for any size simulation. The proposed approach can facilitate fast updating of generated realizations with new data, when appropriate, without repeating the full simulation process. Based on a novel column partitioning of the L matrix, expressed in terms of successive conditional covariance matrices, the approach presented here demonstrates that LU simulation is equivalent to the successive solution of kriging residual estimates plus random terms. Consequently, it can be used for the LU decomposition of matrices of any size. The simulation approach is termed conditional simulation by successive residuals as at each step, a small set (group) of random variables is simulated with a LU decomposition of a matrix of updated conditional covariance of residuals. The simulated group is then used to estimate residuals without the need to solve large systems of equations.

Modelling the activated sludge flocculation process combining laser light diffraction particle sizing and population balance modelling (PBM)

A technique based on laser light diffraction is shown to be successful in collecting on-line experimental data. Time series of floc size distributions (FSD) under different shear rates (G) and calcium additions were collected. The steady state mass mean diameter decreased with increasing shear rate G and increased when calcium additions exceeded 8 mg/l. A so-called population balance model (PBM) was used to describe the experimental data, This kind of model describes both aggregation and breakage through birth and death terms. A discretised PBM was used since analytical solutions of the integro-partial differential equations are non-existing. Despite the complexity of the model, only 2 parameters need to be estimated: the aggregation rate and the breakage rate. The model seems, however, to lack flexibility. Also, the description of the floc size distribution (FSD) in time is not accurate.

Physiological profiles of restricted endemic plants and their widespread congenors in the North Queensland wet tropics, Australia

Little is known about causes of endemic rarity in plants. This study pioneered an approach that determined environmental variables in the rainforest habitat and generated physiological profiles for light, water, and nutrient relations for three endemically restricted versus widespread congeneric species' pairs. We found no overall consistent differences in the physiological variables between the group of restricted species and the group of widespread species, and congeneric species pairs were therefore examined individually. Availability of soil nutrients did not differ between restricted-widespread species sites suggesting that species grow under comparable nutrient conditions. Under ambient and manipulated higher light conditions, widespread Gardenia ovularis had a greater photosynthetic activity than restricted Gardenia actinocarpa suggesting that the two species differ in their photosynthetic abilities. Differences between Xanthostemon species included lower photosynthetic activity, higher transpiration rate, and a higher foliar manganese concentration in restricted Xanthostemon formosus compared to widespread Xanthostemon chrysanthus. It is suggested that X. formosus is restricted by its high water use to its current rainforest creek edge habitat, while X. chrysanthus grows in a range of environments, although naturally found in riparian rainforest. Restricted Archidendron kanisii had higher electron transport rates, greater dissipative capacity for removal of excess light, and more efficient investment of nitrogen into photosynthetic components, than its widespread relative Archidendron whitei. These observations and previous research suggest that restricted Archidendron kanisii is in the process of expanding its range. Physiological profiles suggest a different cause of rarity for each species. This has implications for the conservation strategies required for each species. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

The rheology of flotation froths

A literature review has highlighted the need to measure flotation froth rheology in order to fully characterise the role of the froth in the flotation process. The initial investigation using a coaxial cylinder viscometer for froth rheology measurement led to the development of a new device employing a vane measuring head. The modified rheometer was used in industrial scale flotation tests at Mt. Isa Copper Concentrator. The measured froth rheograms show a non-Newtonian nature for the flotation froths (pseudoplastic flow). The evidence of the non-Newtonian flow has questioned the validity of application of the Laplace equation in froth motion modelling as used by a number of researchers, since the assumption of irrotational flow is violated. Correlations between the froth rheology and the froth retention time, water hold-up in the froth and concentrate grades have been found. These correlations are independent of air flow rate (test data at various air flow rates fall on one similar trend line). This implies that froth rheology may be used as a lumped parameter for other operating variables in flotation modelling and scale up. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A mathematical model of concentrate solids content for the wet drum magnetic separator

Low concentrate density from wet drum magnetic separators in dense medium circuits can cause operating difficulties due to inability to obtain the required circulating medium density and, indirectly, high medium solids losses. The literature is almost silent on the processes controlling concentrate density. However, the common name for the region through which concentrate is discharged-the squeeze pan gap-implies that some extrusion process is thought to be at work. There is no model of magnetics recovery in a wet drum magnetic separator, which includes as inputs all significant machine and operating variables. A series of trials, in both factorial experiments and in single variable experiments, was done using a purpose built rig which featured a small industrial scale (700 mm lip length, 900 turn diameter) wet drum magnetic separator. A substantial data set of 191 trials was generated in this work. The results of the factorial experiments were used to identify the variables having a significant effect on magnetics recovery. It is proposed, based both on the experimental observations of the present work and on observations reported in the literature, that the process controlling magnetic separator concentrate density is one of drainage. Such a process should be able to be defined by an initial moisture, a drainage rate and a drainage time, the latter being defined by the volumetric flowrate and the volume within the drainage zone. The magnetics can be characterised by an experimentally derived ultimate drainage moisture. A model based on these concepts and containing adjustable parameters was developed. This model was then fitted to a randomly chosen 80% of the data, and validated by application to the remaining 20%. The model is shown to be a good fit to data over concentrate solids content values from 40% solids to 80% solids and for both magnetite and ferrosilicon feeds. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A mathematical model of recovery of dense medium magnetics in the wet drum magnetic separator

Loss of magnetic medium solids from dense medium circuits is a substantial contributor to operating cost. Much of this loss is by way of wet drum magnetic separator effluent. A model of the separator would be useful for process design, optimisation and control. A review of the literature established that although various rules of thumb exist, largely based on empirical or anecdotal evidence, there is no model of magnetics recovery in a wet drum magnetic separator which includes as inputs all significant machine and operating variables. A series of trials, in both factorial experiments and in single variable experiments, was therefore carried out using a purpose built rig which featured a small industrial scale (700 mm lip length, 900 mm diameter) wet drum magnetic separator. A substantial data set of 191 trials was generated in the work. The results of the factorial experiments were used to identify the variables having a significant effect on magnetics recovery. Observations carried out as an adjunct to this work, as well as magnetic theory, suggests that the capture of magnetic particles in the wet drum magnetic separator is by a flocculation process. Such a process should be defined by a flocculation rate and a flocculation time; the latter being defined by the volumetric flowrate and the volume within the separation zone. A model based on this concept and containing adjustable parameters was developed. This model was then fitted to a randomly chosen 80% of the data, and validated by application to the remaining 20%. The model is shown to provide a satisfactory fit to the data over three orders of magnitude of magnetics loss. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science BY. All rights reserved.

Outcome variables for osteoarthritis clinical trials: the OMERACT-OARSI set of responder criteria

Improvement in analysis and reporting results of osteoarthritis (OA) clinical trials has been recently obtained because of harmonization and standardization of the selection of outcome variables (OMERACT 3 and OARSI). Moreover, OARSI has recently proposed the OARSI responder criteria. This composite index permits presentation of results of symptom modifying clinical trials in OA based on individual patient responses (responder yes/no). The 2 organizations (OMERACT and OARSI) established. a task force aimed at evaluating: (1) the variability of observed placebo and active treatment effects using the OARSI responder criteria; and (2) the possibility of proposing a simplified set of criteria. The conclusions of the task force were presented and discussed during the OMERACT 6 conference, where a simplified set of responder criteria (OMERACT-OARSI set of criteria) was proposed.

The variety of variables in automated real-time refinement

The refinement calculus is a well-established theory for deriving program code from specifications. Recent research has extended the theory to handle timing requirements, as well as functional ones, and we have developed an interactive programming tool based on these extensions. Through a number of case studies completed using the tool, this paper explains how the tool helps the programmer by supporting the many forms of variables needed in the theory. These include simple state variables as in the untimed calculus, trace variables that model the evolution of properties over time, auxiliary variables that exist only to support formal reasoning, subroutine parameters, and variables shared between parallel processes.

Full-scale demonstration of biological nutrient removal in a single tank SBR process

Complete biological nutrient removal (BNR) in a single tank, sequencing batch reactor (SBR) process, is demonstrated here at full-scale on a typical domestic wastewater. The unique feature of the UniFed process is the introduction of the influent into the settled sludge blanket during the settling and decant periods of the SBR operation. This achieves suitable conditions for denitrification and anaerobic phosphate release which is critical to successful biological phosphorus removal, It also achieves a selector effect, which helps in generating a compact, well settling biomass in the reactor. The results of this demonstration show that it is possible to achieve well over 90% removal of GOD, nitrogen and phosphorus in such a process. Effluent quality achieved over a six-month operating period directly after commissioning was: 29 mg/l GOD, 0.5 mg/l NH4-N, 1.5 mg/l NOx-N and 1.5 mg/l PO4-P (50%-iles of daily samples). During an 8-day, intensive sampling period, the effluent BOD5 was

Evidence for a sub-morphological inflammatory process in the liver in haemochromatosis

Background/Aims: The role of cytokines in hepatic injury has been examined for many liver diseases however little is known of the cytokine involvement in haemochromatosis. The aim of the current study was to examine the hepatic gene expression of potential proinflammatory and profibrogenic cytokines in haemochromatosis. Methods: Interferon-gamma, interleukin-10, transforming growth factor-beta(1) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha mRNA expression was assessed in liver tissue from 20 haemochromatosis patients, eight controls and eight chronic hepatitis C patients. To assess the immunophenotype of the inflammatory infiltrate in haemochromatosis, liver sections were subjected to immunohistochemistry using markers for macrophages (CD68, HAM56, MAC387) or T cells (CD3 and CD45RO). Results: Interferon-gamma mRNA was increased in both haemochromatosis (0.29+/-0.08%, P=0.01) and hepatitis C patients (1.02+/-0.32%, P=0.03) compared to controls (0.04+/-0.01%). Interleukin-10 mRNA was significantly decreased in both haemochromatosis and hepatitis C patients (0.01+/-0.003%, P=0.008 and 0.03+/-0.015%, P=0.02, respectively) compared to controls (0.12+/-0.01%). CD3 positive T-cell number was significantly correlated with increasing hepatic iron concentration (r=0.56, P=0.03). Conclusions: This study has demonstrated a distinct pattern of cytokine gene expression in haemochromatosis, which resembles that of inflammatory conditions such as chronic hepatitis C. These factors may play a role in the development of iron-induced hepatic fibrosis in haemochromatosis. (C) 2003 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.