Likelihood-based estimation of the regression model with scrambled responses

A significant problem in the collection of responses to potentially sensitive questions, such as relating to illegal, immoral or embarrassing activities, is non-sampling error due to refusal to respond or false responses. Eichhorn & Hayre (1983) suggested the use of scrambled responses to reduce this form of bias. This paper considers a linear regression model in which the dependent variable is unobserved but for which the sum or product with a scrambling random variable of known distribution, is known. The performance of two likelihood-based estimators is investigated, namely of a Bayesian estimator achieved through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme, and a classical maximum-likelihood estimator. These two estimators and an estimator suggested by Singh, Joarder & King (1996) are compared. Monte Carlo results show that the Bayesian estimator outperforms the classical estimators in almost all cases, and the relative performance of the Bayesian estimator improves as the responses become more scrambled.

The velocity of probability transport in quantum mechanics

In his study of the 'time of arrival' problem in the nonrelativistic quantum mechanics of a single particle, Allcock [1] noted that the direction of the probability flux vector is not necessarily the same as that of the mean momentum of a wave packet, even when the packet is composed entirely of plane waves with a common direction of momentum. Packets can be constructed, for example for a particle moving under a constant force, in which probability flows for a finite time in the opposite direction to the momentum. A similar phenomenon occurs for the Dirac electron. The maximum amount of probabilitiy backflow which can occur over a given time interval can be calculated in each case.

The spatial and temporal distribution of koala faecal pellets

Faecal pellets were collected under trees used by free-ranging koalas in south-western, central and southeastern Queensland to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of pellets with respect to the activity of koalas. Deposition of faecal pellets by koalas was analysed according to the time of day at which the tree was occupied. For free-ranging koalas, 47% of daily faecal pellet output was recovered using a collection mat of 8 x 8 m placed under a day-roost tree. The best predictor of pellet production was the presence of a koala in a tree between 1800 hours and midnight. For other periods, there was no relationship between period of tree occupancy and faecal pellet recovery. There was a significant relationship between the average length of tree occupancy and the time of day that a koala entered a tree.

Distribution of interleukin-2,-4,-10, tumour necrosis factor-alpha and transforming growth factor-beta mRNAs in oral lichen planus

In the present study. MRNA for the cytokines interleukin-2 (IL-2), IL-4, IL-10 tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and transforming growth factor beta-1 (TGF-beta-1) were investigated in oral lichen planus (OLP) lesions using in situ hybridization with S-35-labelled oligonucleotide probes on frozen tissue sections. In addition, the expression of interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), IL-10 and IL-4 mRNAs was analysed in cultured lesional T lymphocytes from oral lichen planus by polymerase chain reaction. Cells expressing mRNA for IL-2, IL-4, IL-10, TNF-alpha and TGF-beta(1) were found in all the biopsies studied. Approximately 1-2% of the total number of infiltrating cells in the lesions were positive for each of the different cytokine mRNAs. Most biopsies contained basement membrane-oriented, mRNA-positive cells. In the cultured T-cell lines, message for IFN-gamma was detected in all the patients, IL-10 in all but one, and IL-4 in just one of the seven patients investigated. The results suggest that mRNA for both pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, i.e., mixed T-helper 1 (T(H)1) and T(H)2 cytokine profiles, are generated simultaneously by a limited number of cells in chronic lesions of OLP. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

Inequitable distribution of general practitioners in Australia: estimating need through the Robin Hood Index

Objective: From Census data, to document the distribution of general practitioners in Australia and to estimate the number of general practitioners needed to achieve an equitable distribution accounting for community health need. Methods: Data on location of general practitioners, population size and crude mortality by statistical division (SD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The number of patients per general practitioner by SD was calculated and plotted. Using crude mortality to estimate community health need, a ratio of the number of general practitioners per person:mortality was calculated for all Australia and for each SD (the Robin Hood Index). From this, the number of general practitioners needed to achieve equity was calculated. Results: In all, 26,290 general practitioners were identified in 57 SDs. The mean number of people per general practitioner is 707, ranging from 551 to 1887. Capital city SDs have most favourable ratios. The Robin Hood Index for Australia is 1, and ranges from 0.32 (relatively under-served) to 2.46 (relatively over-served). Twelve SDs (21%) including all capital cities and 65% of all Australians, have a Robin Hood Index > 1. To achieve equity per capita 2489 more general practitioners (10% of the current workforce) are needed. To achieve equity by the Robin Hood Index 3351 (13% of the current workforce) are needed. Conclusions: The distribution of general practitioners in Australia is skewed. Nonmetropolitan areas are relatively underserved. Census data and the Robin Hood Index could provide a simple means of identifying areas of need in Australia.

Regional-scale investigation of the spatial distribution and origin of soluble salts in central north Queensland

A method for regional assessment of the distribution of saline outbreaks is demonstrated for a large area (68 000 km(2)) in north Queensland, Australia. Soil samples were used in conjunction with a digital elevation model and a map of potentially saline discharge zones to examine the landscape distribution of soluble salts in the region. The hypothesis of atmospheric accession of salt was tested for the topographically defined catchment regions feeding into each potentially saline discharge area. Most catchments showed a salt distribution consistent with this hypothesis, i.e. %TSS was large near the discharge areas and decreased rapidly with distance uphill from the discharge areas. In some catchments, however, local saline outbreaks were apparent at significant distances uphill from discharge areas. The possibility of geological sources of this salt was examined by comparing random point distributions with the location of saline points with distance downhill from geological units (excluding points near discharge zones). The distribution of some saline outbreaks was consistent with the occurrence of Cambro-Ordovician metasediments, Devonian limestone, Upper Devonian-Lower Carboniferous volcanics, and Triassic sediments. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modeling of hepatic elimination and organ distribution kinetics with the extended convection-dispersion model

The conventional convection-dispersion (also called axial dispersion) model is widely used to interrelate hepatic availability (F) and clearance (Cl) with the morphology and physiology of the liver and to predict effects such as changes in liver blood flow on F and Cl. An extended form of the convection-dispersion model has been developed to adequately describe the outflow concentration-time profiles for vascular markers at both short and long times after bolus injections into perfused livers. The model, based on flux concentration and a convolution of catheters and large vessels, assumes that solute elimination in hepatocytes follows either fast distribution into or radial diffusion in hepatocytes. The model includes a secondary vascular compartment, postulated to be interconnecting sinusoids. Analysis of the mean hepatic transit time (MTT) and normalized variance (CV2) of solutes with extraction showed that the discrepancy between the predictions of MTT and CV2 for the extended and conventional models are essentially identical irrespective of the magnitude of rate constants representing permeability, volume, and clearance parameters, providing that there is significant hepatic extraction. In conclusion, the application of a newly developed extended convection-dispersion model has shown that the unweighted conventional convection-dispersion model can be used to describe the disposition of extracted solutes and, in particular, to estimate hepatic availability and clearance in booth experimental and clinical situations.

The Fornax spectroscopic survey I. Survey strategy and preliminary results on the redshift distribution of a complete sample of stars and galaxies

The Fornax Spectroscopic Survey will use the Two degree Field spectrograph (2dF) of the Angle-Australian Telescope to obtain spectra for a complete sample of all 14000 objects with 16.5 less than or equal to b(j) less than or equal to 19.7 in a 12 square degree area centred on the Fornax Cluster. The aims of this project include the study of dwarf galaxies in the cluster (both known low surface brightness objects and putative normal surface brightness dwarfs) and a comparison sample of background field galaxies. We will also measure quasars and other active galaxies, any previously unrecognised compact galaxies and a large sample of Galactic stars. By selecting all objects-both stars and galaxies-independent of morphology, we cover a much larger range of surface brightness and scale size than previous surveys. In this paper we first describe the design of the survey. Our targets are selected from UK Schmidt Telescope sky survey plates digitised by the Automated Plate Measuring (APM) facility. We then describe the photometric and astrometric calibration of these data and show that the APM astrometry is accurate enough for use with the 2dF. We also describe a general approach to object identification using cross-correlations which allows us to identify and classify both stellar and galaxy spectra. We present results from the first 2dF field. Redshift distributions and velocity structures are shown for all observed objects in the direction of Fornax, including Galactic stars? galaxies in and around the Fornax Cluster, and for the background galaxy population. The velocity data for the stars show the contributions from the different Galactic components, plus a small tail to high velocities. We find no galaxies in the foreground to the cluster in our 2dF field. The Fornax Cluster is clearly defined kinematically. The mean velocity from the 26 cluster members having reliable redshifts is 1560 +/- 80 km s(-1). They show a velocity dispersion of 380 +/- 50 km s(-1). Large-scale structure can be traced behind the cluster to a redshift beyond z = 0.3. Background compact galaxies and low surface brightness galaxies are found to follow the general galaxy distribution.

Effect of density on spatial distribution, pit formation and pit diameter of Myrmeleon acer Walker, (Neuroptera : Myrmeleontidae): patterns and processes

The effect of increasing population density on the formation of pits, their size and spatial distribution, and on levels of mortality was examined in the antlion Myrmeleon acer Walker. Antlions were kept at densities ranging from 0.4 to 12.8 individuals per 100 cm(2). The distribution of pits was regular or uniform across all densities, but antlions constructed proportionally fewer and smaller pits as density increased. Mortality through cannibalism was very low and only occurred at densities greater than five individuals per 100 cm(2). Antlions in artificially crowded situations frequently relocated their pits and when more space became available, individuals became more dispersed with time. Redistribution of this species results from active avoidance of other antlions and sand throwing associated with pit construction and maintenance, rather than any attempt to optimise prey capture per se.

Further results on the relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions for absorbing continuous-time Markov chains

This note considers continuous-time Markov chains whose state space consists of an irreducible class, C, and an absorbing state which is accessible from C. The purpose is to provide results on mu-invariant and mu-subinvariant measures where absorption occurs with probability less than one. In particular, the well-known premise that the mu-invariant measure, m, for the transition rates be finite is replaced by the more natural premise that m be finite with respect to the absorption probabilities. The relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions is discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overview, critical assessment, and conservation implications of koala distribution and abundance

Regional and national surveys provide a broadscale description of the koala's present distribution in Australia. A detailed understanding of its distribution is precluded, however, by past and continuing land clearing across large parts of the koala's range. Koala population density increased in some regions during the late 1800s and then declined dramatically in the early 1900s. The decline was associated with habitat loss, hunting, disease, fire, and drought. Declines are continuing in Queensland and New South Wales. In contrast, dense koala populations in habitat isolates in Victoria and South Australia are managed to reduce population size and browse damage. Current understanding of koala distribution and abundance suggests that the species does not meet Australian criteria as endangered or vulnerable fauna. Its conservation status needs to be reviewed, however, in light of the extensive land clearing in New South Wales and Queensland since the last (1980s) broadscale surveys. Consequently, we recommend that broadacre clearing by curtailed in New South Wales and Queensland and that regular, comprehensive, standardized, national koala surveys be undertaken. Given the fragmentation of koala habitat and regional differences in the status of the koala, we recommended that studies on regional variation in the koala be intensified and that koala ecology in fragmented and naturally restricted habitats be developed. More generally, the National Koala Conservation Strategy should be implemented.

Muscle fibre types and size distribution in sub-antarctic notothenioid fishes

The presumptive tonic muscles fibres of Cottoperca gobio, Champsocephalus esox, Harpagifer bispinis, Eleginops maclovinus, Patagonothen tessellata, P. cornucola and Paranotothenia magellanica stained weakly or were unstained for glycogen, lipid, succinic dehydrogenase (SDHase) and myosin ATPase (mATPase) activity. Slow, intermediate and fast twitch muscle fibres, distinguished on the basis of the pH stability of their mATPases, showed intense, moderate and low staining activity for SDHase, respectively. Slow fibres were the major component of the pectoral fin adductor profundis muscle. The proportion of different muscle fibre types varied from the proximal to distal end of the muscle, but showed relatively little variation between species. The myotomes contained a lateral superficial strip of red muscle composed of presumptive tonic, slow twitch and intermediate fibres, thickening to a major wedge at the horizontal septum. All species also had characteristic secondary dorsal and ventral wedges of red muscle. The relative abundance and localization of muscle fibre types in the red muscle varied between species and with body size in the protandric hermaphrodite E. maclovinus. The frequency distribution of diameters for fast twitch muscle fibres, the major component of deep white muscle, was determined in fish of a range of body sizes. The absence of fibres <20 mu m diameter was used as a criterion for the cessation of muscle fibre recruitment. Fibre recruitment had stopped in P, tessellata of 13.8 cm L-T and E, maclovinus of 32.8 cm L-T, equivalent to 49 and 36.5% of their recorded maximum sizes respectively. As a result in 20-cm P. tessellata, the maximum fibre diameter was 300 mu m and 36% of fibres were in excess of 200 mu m The unusually large maximum fibre diameter, the general arrangement of the red muscle layer and the extreme pH lability of the mATPase of fast twitch fibres are all common characters of the sub-Antarctic and Antarctic Notothenioids, including Cottoperca gobio, the suggested sister group to the Notothenidae. (C) 2000 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Heterogeneous distribution of isoactins in cultured vascular smooth muscle cells does not reflect segregation of contractile and cytoskeletal domains

We have previously demonstrated that or-smooth muscle (alpha -SM) actin is predominantly distributed in the central region and beta -non-muscle (beta -NM) actin in the periphery of cultured rabbit aortic smooth muscle cells (SMCs). To determine whether this reflects a special form of segregation of contractile and cytoskeletal components in SMCs, this study systematically investigated the distribution relationship of structural proteins using high-resolution confocal laser scanning fluorescent microscopy. Not only isoactins but also smooth muscle myosin heavy chain, alpha -actinin, vinculin, and vimentin were heterogeneously distributed in the cultured SMCs. The predominant distribution of beta -NM actin in the cell periphery was associated with densely distributed vinculin plaques and disrupted or striated myosin and ol-actinin aggregates, which may reflect a process of stress fiber assembly during cell spreading and focal adhesion formation. The high-level labeling of alpha -SM actin in the central portion of stress fibers was related to continuous myosin and punctate alpha -actinin distribution, which may represent the maturation of the fibrillar structures. The findings also suggest that the stress fibers, in which actin and myosin filaments organize into sar-comere-like units with alpha -actinin-rich dense bodies analogous to Z-lines, are the contractile vimentin structures of cultured SMCs that link to the network of vimentin-containing intermediate alpha -actinin filaments through the dense bodies and dense plaques.