853 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model


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Existing approaches to quality estimation of e-learning systems are analyzed. The “layered” approach for quality estimation of e-learning systems enhanced with learning process modeling and simulation is presented. The method of quality estimation using learning process modeling and quality criteria are suggested. The learning process model based on extended colored stochastic Petri net is described. The method has been implemented in the automated system of quality estimation of e-learning systems named “QuAdS”. Results of approbation of the developed method and quality criteria are shown. We argue that using learning process modeling for quality estimation simplifies identifying lacks of an e-learning system for an expert.

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In an attempt to answer the need of wider accessibility and popularization of the treasury of Bulgarian folklore, a team from the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences has planned to develop the Bulgarian folklore artery within the national project ―Knowledge Technologies for Creation of Digital Presentation and Significant Repositories of Folklore Heritage‖. This paper presents the process of business modeling of the application architecture of the Bulgarian folklore artery, which aids requirements analysis, application design and its software implementation. The folklore domain process model is made in the context of the target social applications—e-learning, virtual expositions of folklore artifacts, research, news, cultural/ethno-tourism, etc. The basic processes are analyzed and modeled and some inferences are made for the use cases and requirements specification of the Bulgarian folklore artery application. As a conclusion the application architecture of the Bulgarian folklore artery is presented.

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Recognising the importance of alliance decision making in a virtual enterprise (VE), this paper proposes an analysis template to facilitate this process. The existing transaction-cost and resource-based theories in the literature are first reviewed, showing some deficiencies in both type of theories, and the potential of the resource based explanations. The paper then goes on to propose a resource-based analysis template, integrating both the motives of using certain business forms and the factors why different forms help achieve different objectives, Resource-combination effectiveness, management complexity and flexibility are identified as the three factors providing fundamental explanations of an organization's alliance making decision process. The template provides a comprehensive and generic approach for analysing alliance decisions.

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The financial community is well aware that continued underfunding of state and local government pension plans poses many public policy and fiduciary management concerns. However, a well-defined theoretical rationale has not been developed to explain why and how public sector pension plans underfund. This study uses three methods: a survey of national pension experts, an incomplete covariance panel method, and field interviews.^ A survey of national public sector pension experts was conducted to provide a conceptual framework by which underfunding could be evaluated. Experts suggest that plan design, fiscal stress, and political culture factors impact underfunding. However, experts do not agree with previous research findings that unions actively pursue underfunding to secure current wage increases.^ Within the conceptual framework and determinants identified by experts, several empirical regularities are documented for the first time. Analysis of 173 local government pension plans, observed from 1987 to 1992, was conducted. Findings indicate that underfunding occurs in plans that have lower retirement ages, increased costs due to benefit enhancements, when the sponsor faces current year operating deficits, or when a local government relies heavily on inelastic revenue sources. Results also suggest that elected officials artificially inflate interest rate assumptions to reduce current pension costs, consequently shifting these costs to future generations. In concurrence with some experts there is no data to support the assumption that highly unionized employees secure more funding than less unionized employees.^ Empirical results provide satisfactory but not overwhelming statistical power, and only minor predictive capacity. To further explore why underfunding occurs, field interviews were carried out with 62 local government officials. Practitioners indicated that perceived fiscal stress, the willingness of policymakers to advance funding, bargaining strategies used by union officials, apathy by employees and retirees, pension board composition, and the level of influence by internal pension experts has an impact on funding outcomes.^ A pension funding process model was posited by triangulating the expert survey, empirical findings, and field survey results. The funding process model should help shape and refine our theoretical knowledge of state and local government pension underfunding in the future. ^

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The theoretical analysis and research of cultural activities have been limited, for the most part, to the study of the role the public sector plays in the funding and support of nonprofit Arts organizations. The tools used to evaluate this intervention follow a macroeconomic perspective and fail to account for microeconomic principles and assumptions that affect the behavior of these organizations. This dissertation describes through conceptual models the behavior of the agents involved in the artistic process and the economic sectors affected by it. The first paper deals with issues related to economic impact studies and formulates a set of guidelines that should be followed when conducting this type of study. One of the ways to assess more accurately the impact culture has in a community is by assuming that artists can re-create the public space of a blight community and get it ready for a regeneration process. The second paper of this dissertation assumes just that and explains in detail all the cultural, political, economic and sociological interactions that are taking place in the Arts-led regeneration process in Miami Beach, Florida. The paper models the behavior of these agents by indicating what their goals and decision process mechanisms are. The results give support to the claim that the public space artists create in a city actually stimulate development. The third paper discusses the estimation of a demand function for artistic activities, specifically the New World Symphony (NWS) located in Miami Beach, Florida. The behavior of the consumers and producers of NWS' concerts is modeled. The results support the notion that consumers make their decisions based, among other things, on the perceived value these concerts have. Economists engage in the analysis of the effects of cultural activities in a community since many cities rely on them for their development. The history of many communities is not told by their assembly lines and machinery anymore but by their centers of entertainment, hotels and restaurants. Many cities in Europe and North America that have seen the manufacturing sector migrate to the South are trying to face the demands of the new economy by using the Arts as catalysts for development. ^

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This dissertation establishes a novel system for human face learning and recognition based on incremental multilinear Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Most of the existing face recognition systems need training data during the learning process. The system as proposed in this dissertation utilizes an unsupervised or weakly supervised learning approach, in which the learning phase requires a minimal amount of training data. It also overcomes the inability of traditional systems to adapt to the testing phase as the decision process for the newly acquired images continues to rely on that same old training data set. Consequently when a new training set is to be used, the traditional approach will require that the entire eigensystem will have to be generated again. However, as a means to speed up this computational process, the proposed method uses the eigensystem generated from the old training set together with the new images to generate more effectively the new eigensystem in a so-called incremental learning process. In the empirical evaluation phase, there are two key factors that are essential in evaluating the performance of the proposed method: (1) recognition accuracy and (2) computational complexity. In order to establish the most suitable algorithm for this research, a comparative analysis of the best performing methods has been carried out first. The results of the comparative analysis advocated for the initial utilization of the multilinear PCA in our research. As for the consideration of the issue of computational complexity for the subspace update procedure, a novel incremental algorithm, which combines the traditional sequential Karhunen-Loeve (SKL) algorithm with the newly developed incremental modified fast PCA algorithm, was established. In order to utilize the multilinear PCA in the incremental process, a new unfolding method was developed to affix the newly added data at the end of the previous data. The results of the incremental process based on these two methods were obtained to bear out these new theoretical improvements. Some object tracking results using video images are also provided as another challenging task to prove the soundness of this incremental multilinear learning method.

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In the past two decades, multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a new paradigm for conceptualizing large and complex distributed software systems. A multi-agent system view provides a natural abstraction for both the structure and the behavior of modern-day software systems. Although there were many conceptual frameworks for using multi-agent systems, there was no well established and widely accepted method for modeling multi-agent systems. This dissertation research addressed the representation and analysis of multi-agent systems based on model-oriented formal methods. The objective was to provide a systematic approach for studying MAS at an early stage of system development to ensure the quality of design. ^ Given that there was no well-defined formal model directly supporting agent-oriented modeling, this study was centered on three main topics: (1) adapting a well-known formal model, predicate transition nets (PrT nets), to support MAS modeling; (2) formulating a modeling methodology to ease the construction of formal MAS models; and (3) developing a technique to support machine analysis of formal MAS models using model checking technology. PrT nets were extended to include the notions of dynamic structure, agent communication and coordination to support agent-oriented modeling. An aspect-oriented technique was developed to address the modularity of agent models and compositionality of incremental analysis. A set of translation rules were defined to systematically translate formal MAS models to concrete models that can be verified through the model checker SPIN (Simple Promela Interpreter). ^ This dissertation presents the framework developed for modeling and analyzing MAS, including a well-defined process model based on nested PrT nets, and a comprehensive methodology to guide the construction and analysis of formal MAS models.^

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This research focuses on the design and verification of inter-organizational controls. Instead of looking at a documentary procedure, which is the flow of documents and data among the parties, the research examines the underlying deontic purpose of the procedure, the so-called deontic process, and identifies control requirements to secure this purpose. The vision of the research is a formal theory for streamlining bureaucracy in business and government procedures. ^ Underpinning most inter-organizational procedures are deontic relations, which are about rights and obligations of the parties. When all parties trust each other, they are willing to fulfill their obligations and honor the counter parties’ rights; thus controls may not be needed. The challenge is in cases where trust may not be assumed. In these cases, the parties need to rely on explicit controls to reduce their exposure to the risk of opportunism. However, at present there is no analytic approach or technique to determine which controls are needed for a given contracting or governance situation. ^ The research proposes a formal method for deriving inter-organizational control requirements based on static analysis of deontic relations and dynamic analysis of deontic changes. The formal method will take a deontic process model of an inter-organizational transaction and certain domain knowledge as inputs to automatically generate control requirements that a documentary procedure needs to satisfy in order to limit fraud potentials. The deliverables of the research include a formal representation namely Deontic Petri Nets that combine multiple modal logics and Petri nets for modeling deontic processes, a set of control principles that represent an initial formal theory on the relationships between deontic processes and documentary procedures, and a working prototype that uses model checking technique to identify fraud potentials in a deontic process and generate control requirements to limit them. Fourteen scenarios of two well-known international payment procedures—cash in advance and documentary credit—have been used to test the prototype. The results showed that all control requirements stipulated in these procedures could be derived automatically.^

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To stay competitive, many employers are looking for creative and innovative employees to add value to their organization. However, current models of job performance overlook creative performance as an important criterion to measure in the workplace. The purpose of this dissertation is to conduct two separate but related studies on creative performance that aim to provide support that creative performance should be included in models of job performance, and ultimately included in performance evaluations in organizations. Study 1 is a meta-analysis on the relationship between creative performance and task performance, and the relationship between creative performance and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). Overall, I found support for a medium to large corrected correlation for both the creative performance-task performance (ρ = .51) and creative performance-OCB (ρ = .49) relationships. Further, I also found that both rating-source and study location were significant moderators. Study 2 is a process model that includes creative performance alongside task performance and OCB as the outcome variables. I test a model in which both individual differences (specifically: conscientiousness, extraversion, proactive personality, and self-efficacy) and job characteristics (autonomy, feedback, and supervisor support) predict creative performance, task performance, and OCB through engagement as a mediator. In a sample of 299 employed individuals, I found that all the individual differences and job characteristics were positively correlated with all three performance criteria. I also looked at these relationships in a multiple regression framework and most of the individual differences and job characteristics still predicted the performance criteria. In the mediation analyses, I found support for engagement as a significant mediator of the individual differences-performance and job characteristics-performance relationships. Taken together, Study 1 and Study 2 support the notion that creative performance should be included in models of job performance. Implications for both researchers and practitioners alike are discussed.

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This research focuses on the design and verification of inter-organizational controls. Instead of looking at a documentary procedure, which is the flow of documents and data among the parties, the research examines the underlying deontic purpose of the procedure, the so-called deontic process, and identifies control requirements to secure this purpose. The vision of the research is a formal theory for streamlining bureaucracy in business and government procedures. Underpinning most inter-organizational procedures are deontic relations, which are about rights and obligations of the parties. When all parties trust each other, they are willing to fulfill their obligations and honor the counter parties’ rights; thus controls may not be needed. The challenge is in cases where trust may not be assumed. In these cases, the parties need to rely on explicit controls to reduce their exposure to the risk of opportunism. However, at present there is no analytic approach or technique to determine which controls are needed for a given contracting or governance situation. The research proposes a formal method for deriving inter-organizational control requirements based on static analysis of deontic relations and dynamic analysis of deontic changes. The formal method will take a deontic process model of an inter-organizational transaction and certain domain knowledge as inputs to automatically generate control requirements that a documentary procedure needs to satisfy in order to limit fraud potentials. The deliverables of the research include a formal representation namely Deontic Petri Nets that combine multiple modal logics and Petri nets for modeling deontic processes, a set of control principles that represent an initial formal theory on the relationships between deontic processes and documentary procedures, and a working prototype that uses model checking technique to identify fraud potentials in a deontic process and generate control requirements to limit them. Fourteen scenarios of two well-known international payment procedures -- cash in advance and documentary credit -- have been used to test the prototype. The results showed that all control requirements stipulated in these procedures could be derived automatically.

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The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between the characteristics of distance education students, their computer literacy and technology acceptance and distance education course satisfaction. The theoretical framework for this study will apply Rogers and Havelock's Innovation, Diffusion & Utilization theories to distance education. It is hypothesized that technology acceptance and computer competency will influence the student course satisfaction and explain the decision to adopt or reject distance education curriculum and technology. Distance education delivery, Institutional Support, Convenience, Interactivity and five distance education technologies were studied. The data were collected by a survey questionnaire sent to four Florida universities. Three hundred and nineteen and students returned the questionnaire. A factor and regression analysis on three measure of satisfaction revealed significant difference between the three main factors related to the overall satisfaction of distance education students and their adoption of distance education technology as medium of learning. Computer literacy is significantly related to greater overall student satisfaction. However, when competing with other factors such as delivery, support, interactivity, and convenience, computer literacy is not significant. Results indicate that age and status are the only two student characteristics to be significant. Distance education technology acceptance is positively related to higher overall satisfaction. Innovativeness is also positively related to student overall satisfaction. Finally, the technology used relates positively to greater satisfaction levels within the educational experience. Additional research questions were investigated and provided insights into the innovation decision process.

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Diverses publications soulignent l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie et avec elle, le vieillissement mondial de la population. Ce processus se poursuivra à l'avenir, ainsi que son influence sur l’incidence et la prévalence de l'incapacité. Chez les personnes âgées, l’incapacité, les maladies chroniques et leur association constituent un sujet important dans le domaine de la santé publique en raison de l'effet qu'ils ont sur la demande des services de santé. Le but de ce mémoire est d’examiner quelle est la contribution respective des maladies chroniques et de l'incapacité dans l'utilisation des services de santé chez les personnes âgées et de leur interaction. Il s’agit de savoir si l'association entre la maladie chronique et l'utilisation des services de santé est modifiée par l’incapacité prenant en compte les caractéristiques de l'individu et son environnement. Ce travail est basé sur le modèle comportemental proposé par Andersen et Newman et le modèle du processus d’incapacité de Verbrugge et Jette. Pour répondre à l’objectif, nous utilisons les données du projet de recherche “ FRéLE ” (Fragilité, une étude longitudinale de ses expressions), réalisé durant la période 2010 -2013 auprès d’un échantillon de 1643 personnes âgées vivant dans la communauté au Québec. L’incapacité est évaluée à l’aide de deux indicateurs : les AVQ et les AVD. Les maladies chroniques sont mesurées par l’indice fonctionnel de comorbidité (IFC). La dépression est évaluée selon les critères de l’échelle de dépression gériatrique (EDG). L’état cognitif est mesuré par l'évaluation cognitive de Montréal (MoCA). Les facteurs de prédisposition comportent l’âge, le sexe, l’ethnicité et le niveau scolaire. Les facteurs facilitateurs incluent le revenu et le réseau social, ce dernier étant mesure par la présence ou non d’une personne de soutien et son lien avec la personne âgée. Divers modèles de régression sont adoptés pour identifier les facteurs statistiquement significatifs du modèle comportemental d’Andersen et Newman et du modèle du processus d’incapacité de Verbrugge et Jette. Nos résultats ont montré que, si le rôle des prédicteurs de l’utilisation varie en fonction du type de services de santé utilisé, l’utilisation s’accroît principalement avec le nombre de maladies chroniques. En ce qui concerne l’interaction entre la maladie chronique et l’incapacité, nos résultats ont révélé que l’interaction n’est statistiquement significative pour aucun des services analysés. Compte tenu de la diversité et les besoins de la population âgée, caractérisée par une prévalence élevée de maladies chroniques et d'incapacités, l’étude des facteurs impliqués dans l'utilisation des services de santé sera utile pour la mise en œuvre d’une offre de services, plus conforme aux besoins de cette population

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Protecting public health is the most legitimate use of zoning, and yet there is minimal progress in applying it to the obesity problem. Zoning could potentially be used to address both unhealthy and healthy food retailers, but lack of evidence regarding the impact of zoning and public opinion on zoning changes are barriers to implementing zoning restrictions on fast food on a larger scale. My dissertation addresses these gaps in our understanding of health zoning as a policy option for altering built, food environments.

Chapter 1 examines the relationship between food swamps and obesity and whether spatial mapping might be useful in identifying priority geographic areas for zoning interventions. I employ an instrumental variables (IV) strategy to correct for the endogeneity problems associated with food environments, namely that individuals may self-select into certain neighborhoods and may consider food availability in their decision process. I utilize highway exits as a source of exogenous variation .Using secondary data from the USDA Food Environment Atlas, ordinary least squares (OLS) and IV regression models were employed to analyze cross-sectional associations between local food environments and the prevalence of obesity. I find even after controlling for food desert effects, food swamps have a positive, statistically significant effect on adult obesity rates.

Chapter 2 applies theories of message framing and prospect theory to the emerging discussion around health zoning policies targeting food environments and to explore public opinion toward a list of potential zoning restrictions on fast-food restaurants (beyond moratoriums on new establishments). In order to explore causality, I employ an online survey experiment manipulating exposure to vignettes with different message frames about health zoning restrictions with two national samples of adult Americans age 18 and over (N1=2,768 and N2=3,236). The second sample oversamples Black Americans (N=1,000) and individuals with high school as their highest level of education. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of six conditions where they were primed with different message frames about the benefits of zoning restrictions on fast food retailers. Participants were then asked to indicate their support for six zoning policies on a Likert scale. Subjects also answered questions about their food store access, eating behaviors, health status and perceptions of food stores by type.

I find that a message frame about Nutrition and increasing Equity in the food system was particularly effective at increasing support for health zoning policies targeting fast food outlets across policy categories (Conditional, Youth-related, Performance and Incentive) and across racial groups. This finding is consistent with an influential environmental justice scholar’s description of “injustice frames” as effective in mobilizing supporters around environmental issues (Taylor 2000). I extend this rationale to food environment obesity prevention efforts and identify Nutrition combined with Equity frames as an arguably universal campaign strategy for bolstering public support of zoning restrictions on fast food retailers.

Bridging my findings from both Chapters 1 and 2, using food swamps as a spatial metaphor may work to identify priority areas for policy intervention, but only if there is an equitable distribution of resources and mobilization efforts to improve consumer food environments. If the structural forces which ration access to land-use planning persist (arguably including the media as gatekeepers to information and producers of message frames) disparities in obesity are likely to widen.

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Cervical cancer is the second most common female cancer worldwide. Cervical screening programmes can reduce the incidence of cervical cancer by up to 80 percent if the invited women participate. Previous Irish research has associated screening attendance with subjective norms, anticipated regret, higher socio-economic status and education. Greater perceived screening barriers and lacking knowledge were associated with avoidance. These findings support a variety of expectancy-value theories of behaviour. They also suggest that expectancy-value theories could benefit from the inclusion of affective predictors of behaviour, like anticipated regret. In 2008 the Republic of Ireland introduced the National Cervical Screening Programme (NCSP). This research seeks to identify the predictors of participation in the NCSP. A systematic review of reviews showed that predictors of screening participation clustered into environmental and psychological influences. There is a gap in the evidence synthesis of associations with personal characteristics and health beliefs. Thematic analysis of focus group interviews confirmed the validity of many screening predictors identified by the systematic review and expectancy-value theories. A survey of these predictors suggested that reduced screening barriers might encourage first-time participation, while regular attendance requires greater endorsement of screening benefits and stronger subjective norm and intention. Positive attitude, rather than knowledge, appeared to be crucial for strong intention, so the final study piloted an experiment comparing the utility of positive attitude in strengthening intention to the utility of information provision. Despite lacking significant differences between conditions, content analysis of participant comments suggested that a full trial would be worthwhile, given purposive sampling and improved sample retention. These findings agree with previous Irish research on the importance of screening intention, although its association with attitude appeared to be stronger in the present research. The findings further indicate that future screening promotion should consider interventions based on patients’ experiences of screening.

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Diverses publications soulignent l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie et avec elle, le vieillissement mondial de la population. Ce processus se poursuivra à l'avenir, ainsi que son influence sur l’incidence et la prévalence de l'incapacité. Chez les personnes âgées, l’incapacité, les maladies chroniques et leur association constituent un sujet important dans le domaine de la santé publique en raison de l'effet qu'ils ont sur la demande des services de santé. Le but de ce mémoire est d’examiner quelle est la contribution respective des maladies chroniques et de l'incapacité dans l'utilisation des services de santé chez les personnes âgées et de leur interaction. Il s’agit de savoir si l'association entre la maladie chronique et l'utilisation des services de santé est modifiée par l’incapacité prenant en compte les caractéristiques de l'individu et son environnement. Ce travail est basé sur le modèle comportemental proposé par Andersen et Newman et le modèle du processus d’incapacité de Verbrugge et Jette. Pour répondre à l’objectif, nous utilisons les données du projet de recherche “ FRéLE ” (Fragilité, une étude longitudinale de ses expressions), réalisé durant la période 2010 -2013 auprès d’un échantillon de 1643 personnes âgées vivant dans la communauté au Québec. L’incapacité est évaluée à l’aide de deux indicateurs : les AVQ et les AVD. Les maladies chroniques sont mesurées par l’indice fonctionnel de comorbidité (IFC). La dépression est évaluée selon les critères de l’échelle de dépression gériatrique (EDG). L’état cognitif est mesuré par l'évaluation cognitive de Montréal (MoCA). Les facteurs de prédisposition comportent l’âge, le sexe, l’ethnicité et le niveau scolaire. Les facteurs facilitateurs incluent le revenu et le réseau social, ce dernier étant mesure par la présence ou non d’une personne de soutien et son lien avec la personne âgée. Divers modèles de régression sont adoptés pour identifier les facteurs statistiquement significatifs du modèle comportemental d’Andersen et Newman et du modèle du processus d’incapacité de Verbrugge et Jette. Nos résultats ont montré que, si le rôle des prédicteurs de l’utilisation varie en fonction du type de services de santé utilisé, l’utilisation s’accroît principalement avec le nombre de maladies chroniques. En ce qui concerne l’interaction entre la maladie chronique et l’incapacité, nos résultats ont révélé que l’interaction n’est statistiquement significative pour aucun des services analysés. Compte tenu de la diversité et les besoins de la population âgée, caractérisée par une prévalence élevée de maladies chroniques et d'incapacités, l’étude des facteurs impliqués dans l'utilisation des services de santé sera utile pour la mise en œuvre d’une offre de services, plus conforme aux besoins de cette population