Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Odometria visual baseada em técnicas de structure from motion

Visual Odometry is the process that estimates camera position and orientation based solely on images and in features (projections of visual landmarks present in the scene) extraced from them. With the increasing advance of Computer Vision algorithms and computer processing power, the subarea known as Structure from Motion (SFM) started to supply mathematical tools composing localization systems for robotics and Augmented Reality applications, in contrast with its initial purpose of being used in inherently offline solutions aiming 3D reconstruction and image based modelling. In that way, this work proposes a pipeline to obtain relative position featuring a previously calibrated camera as positional sensor and based entirely on models and algorithms from SFM. Techniques usually applied in camera localization systems such as Kalman filters and particle filters are not used, making unnecessary additional information like probabilistic models for camera state transition. Experiments assessing both 3D reconstruction quality and camera position estimated by the system were performed, in which image sequences captured in reallistic scenarios were processed and compared to localization data gathered from a mobile robotic platform

Search schemes for random optimization algorithms that preserve the asymptotic distribution

Markovian algorithms for estimating the global maximum or minimum of real valued functions defined on some domain Omega subset of R-d are presented. Conditions on the search schemes that preserve the asymptotic distribution are derived. Global and local search schemes satisfying these conditions are analysed and shown to yield sharper confidence intervals when compared to the i.i.d. case.

Beam Search Algorithms for Minimizing Tool Switches on a Flexible Manufacturing System

In the minimization of tool switches problem we seek a sequence to process a set of jobs so that the number of tool switches required is minimized. In this work different variations of a heuristic based on partial ordered job sequences are implemented and evaluated. All variations adopt a depth first strategy of the enumeration tree. The computational test results indicate that good results can be obtained by a variation which keeps the best three branches at each node of the enumeration tree, and randomly choose, among all active nodes, the next node to branch when backtracking.

Allocation of protective devices in distribution circuits using nonlinear programming models and genetic algorithms

The optimized allocation of protective devices in strategic points of the circuit improves the quality of the energy supply and the system reliability index. This paper presents a nonlinear integer programming (NLIP) model with binary variables, to deal with the problem of protective device allocation in the main feeder and all branches of an overhead distribution circuit, to improve the reliability index and to provide customers with service of high quality and reliability. The constraints considered in the problem take into account technical and economical limitations, such as coordination problems of serial protective devices, available equipment, the importance of the feeder and the circuit topology. The use of genetic algorithms (GAs) is proposed to solve this problem, using a binary representation that does (1) or does not (0) show allocation of protective devices (reclosers, sectionalizers and fuses) in predefined points of the circuit. Results are presented for a real circuit (134 busses), with the possibility of protective device allocation in 29 points. Also the ability of the algorithm in finding good solutions while improving significantly the indicators of reliability is shown. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ALGORITHM FOR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS of DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS WITH DISTRIBUTED GENERATION

In this paper an efficient algorithm for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly-meshed distribution systems is presented. This algorithm uses the technique of Two-Point Estimate Method for calculating the probabilistic behavior of the system random variables. Additionally, the deterministic analysis of the state variables is performed by means of a Compensation-Based Radial Load Flow (CBRLF). Such load flow efficiently exploits the topological characteristics of the network. To deal with distributed generation, a strategy to incorporate a simplified model of a generator in the CBRLF is proposed. Thus, depending on the type of control and generator operation conditions, the node with distributed generation can be modeled either as a PV or PQ node. To validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the IEEE 37 bus test system is used. The probabilistic results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method.

Using Amino Acid Correlation and Community Detection Algorithms to Identify Functional Determinants in Protein Families

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of genetic algorithms and solvation potential to study peptides structure

In this work, genetic algorithms concepts along with a rotamer library for proteins side chains and implicit solvation potential are used to optimize the tertiary structure of peptides. We starting from the known PDB structure of its backbone which is kept fixed while the side chains allowed adopting the conformations present in the rotamer library. It was used rotamer library independent of backbone and a implicit solvation potential. The structure of Mastoporan-X was predicted using several force fields with a growing complexity; we started it with a field where the only present interaction was Lennard-Jones. We added the Coulombian term and we considered the solvation effects through a term proportional to the solvent accessible area. This paper present good and interesting results obtained using the potential with solvation term and rotamer library. Hence, the algorithm (called YODA) presented here can be a good tool to the prediction problem. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EthoSeq: A tool for phylogenetic analysis and data mining in behavioral sequences

This article introduces the software program called EthoSeq, which is designed to extract probabilistic behavioral sequences (tree-generated sequences, or TGSs) from observational data and to prepare a TGS-species matrix for phylogenetic analysis. The program uses Graph Theory algorithms to automatically detect behavioral patterns within the observational sessions. It includes filtering tools to adjust the search procedure to user-specified statistical needs. Preliminary analyses of data sets, such as grooming sequences in birds and foraging tactics in spiders, uncover a large number of TGSs which together yield single phylogenetic trees. An example of the use of the program is our analysis of felid grooming sequences, in which we have obtained 1,386 felid grooming TGSs for seven species, resulting in a single phylogeny. These results show that behavior is definitely useful in phylogenetic analysis. EthoSeq simplifies and automates such analyses, uncovers much of the hidden patterns of long behavioral sequences, and prepares this data for further analysis with standard phylogenetic programs. We hope it will encourage many empirical studies on the evolution of behavior.

A probabilistic model for elastic-plastic fracture analysis of plane and axisymmetric structures

This work presents a methodology for elastic-plastic fracture reliability analysis of plane and axisymmetric structures. The structural reliability analysis is accomplished by means of the FORM analytical method. The virtual crack extension technique based on a direct minimization of potencial energy is utililized for the calculation of the energy release rate. Results are presented to illustrate the performance of the adopted methodology.

ACCELERATING ITERATIVE ALGORITHMS FOR SYMMETRICAL LINEAR COMPLEMENTARITY-PROBLEMS

We propose a method for accelerating iterative algorithms for solving symmetric linear complementarity problems. The method consists in performing a one-dimensional optimization in the direction generated by a splitting method even for non-descent directions. We give strong convergence proofs and present numerical experiments that justify using this acceleration.