975 resultados para Predictive-value


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The objective of the present research was to evaluate the usefulness of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibodies and the IgM rheumatoid factor (IgM RF) test for the differential diagnosis of leprosy with articular involvement and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Anti-CCP antibodies and IgM RF were measured in the sera of 158 leprosy patients (76 with and 82 without articular involvement), 69 RA patients and 89 healthy controls. Leprosy diagnosis was performed according to Ridley and Jopling classification criteria and clinical and demographic characteristics of leprosy patients were collected by a standard questionnaire. Leprosy patients with any concomitant rheumatic disease were excluded. Serum samples were obtained from all participants and frozen at _20°C. Measurement of anti-CCP antibodies and IgM RF were performed by ELISA, using a commercial second-generation kit, and the latex agglutination test, respectively. Anti-CCP antibodies and IgM RF were detected in low frequencies (2.6 and 1.3%, respectively) in leprosy patients and were not associated with articular involvement. Among healthy individuals both anti-CCP antibodies and IgM RF were each detected in 3.4% of the subjects. In contrast, in the RA group, anti-CCP antibodies were present in 81.2% and IgM RF in 62.3%. In the present study, both anti-CCP antibodies and IgM RF showed good positive predictive value for RA, helping to discriminate between RA and leprosy patients with articular involvement. However, anti-CCP antibodies were more specific for RA diagnosis in the population under study.

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Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects subjects with Chagas' disease and is an indicator of poor prognosis. We investigated clinical, echocardiographic and electrocardiographic variables of Chagas' disease in a long-term longitudinal study as predictors of a new-onset AF episode lasting >24 h, nonfatal embolic stroke and cardiac death. Fifty adult outpatients (34 to 74 years old, 62% females) staged according to the Los Andes classification were enrolled. During a follow-up of (mean ± SD) 84.2 ± 39.0 months, 9 subjects developed AF (incidence: 3.3 ± 1.0%/year), 5 had nonfatal stroke (incidence: 1.3 ± 1.0%/year), and nine died (mortality rate: 2.3 ± 0.8%/year). The progression rate of left ventricular mass and left ventricular ejection fraction was significantly greater in subjects who experienced AF (16.4 ± 20.0 g/year and -8.6 ± 7.6%/year, respectively) than in those who did not (8.2 ± 8.4 g/year; P = 0.03, and -3.0 ± 2.5%/year; P = 0.04, respectively). In univariate analysis, left atrial diameter ≥3.2 cm (P = 0.002), pulmonary arterial hypertension (P = 0.035), frequent premature supraventricular and ventricular contraction counts/24 h (P = 0.005 and P = 0.007, respectively), ventricular couplets/24 h (P = 0.002), and ventricular tachycardia (P = 0.004) were long-term predictors of AF. P-wave signal-averaged ECG revealed a limited long-term predictive value for AF. In chronic Chagas' disease, large left atrial diameter, pulmonary arterial hypertension, frequent supraventricular and ventricular premature beats, and ventricular tachycardia are long-term predictors of AF. The rate of left ventricular mass enlargement and systolic function deterioration impact AF incidence in this population.

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Cystic fibrosis is one of the most common autosomal recessive hereditary diseases in the Caucasian population, with an incidence of 1:2000 to 1:3500 liveborns. More than 1000 mutations have been described with the most common being F508del. It has a prevalence of 23-55% within the Brazilian population. The lack of population-based studies evaluating the incidence of cystic fibrosis in São Paulo State, Brazil, and an analysis concerning the costs of implantation of a screening program motivated the present study. A total of 60,000 dried blood samples from Guthrie cards obtained from April 2005 to January 2006 for neonatal screening at 4 reference centers in São Paulo State were analyzed. The immunoreactive trypsinogen (IRT)/IRT protocol was used with the cut-off value being 70 ng/mL. A total of 532 children (0.9%) showed IRT >70 ng/mL and a 2nd sample was collected from 418 (80.3%) of these patients. Four affected children were detected at two centers, corresponding to an incidence of 1:8403. The average age at diagnosis was 69 days, and 3 of the children already showed severe symptoms of the disease. The rate of false-positive results was 95.2% and the positive predictive value for the test was 8%. The cost of detecting an affected subject was approximately US$8,000.00 when this cystic fibrosis program was added to an existing neonatal screening program. The present study clearly shows the difficulties involved in cystic fibrosis screening using the IRT/IRT protocol, particularly in a population with no long-term tradition of neonatal screening.

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Early diagnosis plays a vital role in controlling tuberculosis. The conventional methodology is slow, with results taking several weeks, in addition to having low sensitivity, especially in clinical paucibacillary samples. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on solid medium culture for a rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis, mainly in cases of negative sputum smears. Forty sputum samples were collected from inpatients with tuberculosis treated for less than 2 days. Bacilloscopy, PCR for sputum, culture on Löwestein-Jensen (LJ) solid medium, and daily PCR from culture were performed on each sample. DNA extracted from the BCG vaccine, which contains attenuated bacillus Calmette-Guérin, was used as the positive control. Smear microscopy showed 68.6% sensitivity, 80% specificity, 96% positive predictive value, and 26.7% negative predictive value, with culture on LJ medium as the gold standard. Culture at day 28 showed 74.3% sensitivity and 100% specificity. PCR of DNA extracted from sputum amplified a 1027-bp fragment of the 16s RNA gene, showing 22.9% sensitivity and 60% specificity. PCR performed with DNA extracted from daily culture showed that, from the 17th to the 40th day, the sensitivity (85.7%) and specificity (60%) were constant. We conclude that a 17-day culture is a good choice for rapid diagnosis and to interfere with the transmission chain of tuberculosis.

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Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is an appropriate method for the evaluation of axillary status in cases of early breast cancer. We report our experience in treating cases evaluated using SLNB. We analyzed a total of 1192 cases assessed by means of SLNB from July 1999 to December 2007. SLNB processing was successfully completed in 1154 cases with the use of blue dye or radiolabeled 99mTc-Dextran-500, or both. Of these 1154 patients, 857 were N0(i-) (no regional lymph node metastasis, negative immunohistochemistry, IHC), 96 were N0(i+) (no regional lymph node metastasis histologically, positive IHC, no IHC cluster greater than 0.2 mm) and 201 were N1mi (greater than 0.2 mm, none greater than 2.0 mm). Most of the tumors (70%) were invasive ductal carcinomas and tumors were staged as T1 in 770 patients (65%). A total of 274 patients underwent SLNB and axillary dissections up to April 2003. The inclusion criteria were tumor size equal to or less than 3 cm in diameter, no clinically palpable axillary lymph nodes, no neoadjuvant therapy. In 19 cases, the SLN could not be identified intraoperatively. A false-negative rate of 11% and a negative predictive value of 88.2% were obtained for the 255 assessable patients. The overall concordance between SLNB and axillary lymph node status was 92%. SLNB sensitivity for nodes was 81% and specificity was 100%. The higher sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and lower false-negative rates of SLNB suggest that this method may be an appropriate alternative to total axillary dissection in early breast cancer patients.

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Prenatal immune challenge (PIC) in pregnant rodents produces offspring with abnormalities in behavior, histology, and gene expression that are reminiscent of schizophrenia and autism. Based on this, the goal of this article was to review the main contributions of PIC models, especially the one using the viral-mimetic particle polyriboinosinic-polyribocytidylic acid (poly-I:C), to the understanding of the etiology, biological basis and treatment of schizophrenia. This systematic review consisted of a search of available web databases (PubMed, SciELO, LILACS, PsycINFO, and ISI Web of Knowledge) for original studies published in the last 10 years (May 2001 to October 2011) concerning animal models of PIC, focusing on those using poly-I:C. The results showed that the PIC model with poly-I:C is able to mimic the prodrome and both the positive and negative/cognitive dimensions of schizophrenia, depending on the specific gestation time window of the immune challenge. The model resembles the neurobiology and etiology of schizophrenia and has good predictive value. In conclusion, this model is a robust tool for the identification of novel molecular targets during prenatal life, adolescence and adulthood that might contribute to the development of preventive and/or treatment strategies (targeting specific symptoms, i.e., positive or negative/cognitive) for this devastating mental disorder, also presenting biosafety as compared to viral infection models. One limitation of this model is the incapacity to model the full spectrum of immune responses normally induced by viral exposure.

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Febrile neutropenia remains a frequent complication in onco-hematological patients, and changes in the circulating level of inflammatory molecules (IM) may precede the occurrence of fever. The present observational prospective study was carried out to evaluate the behavior of plasma tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), soluble TNF-α I and II receptors (sTNFRI and sTNFRII), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 [MCP-1 or chemokine (c-c motif) ligand 2 (CCL2)], macrophage inflammatory protein-1α (MIP-1α or CCL3), eotaxin (CCL11), interleukin-8 (IL-8 or CXCL8), and interferon-inducible protein-10 (IP-10 or CXCL10) in 32 episodes of neutropenia in 26 onco-hematological patients. IM were tested on enrollment and 24-48 h before the onset of fever and within 24 h of the first occurrence of fever. Eight of 32 episodes of neutropenia did not present fever (control group) and the patients underwent IM tests on three different occasions. sTNFRI levels, measured a median of 11 h (1-15) before the onset of fever, were significantly higher in patients presenting fever during follow-up compared to controls (P = 0.02). Similar results were observed for sTNFRI and CCL2 levels (P = 0.04 for both) in non-transplanted patients. A cut-off of 1514 pg/mL for sTNFRI was able to discriminate between neutropenic patients with or without fever during follow-up, with 65% sensitivity, 87% specificity, and 93% positive predictive value. Measurement of the levels of plasma sTNFRI can be used to predict the occurrence of fever in neutropenic patients.

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Non-adaptive personality traits may constitute risk factors for development of psychiatric disorders such as depression and anxiety. We aim to evaluate associations and the predictive value of personality traits among alcohol-dependent individuals, with or without psychiatric comorbidities. The convenience sample comprised two groups of males over 18 years of age: one with subjects who had an alcohol dependence diagnosis (AG, n=110), and a control group without abuse and/or alcohol dependence diagnosis (CG, n=110). The groups were assessed by means of the Structured Clinical Interview DSM-IV (SCID-IV). AG participants were recruited among outpatients from the university hospital, whereas CG participants were recruited from a primary healthcare program. Data collection was done individually with self-assessment instruments. Parametric statistics were performed, and a significance level of P=0.05 was adopted. A positive correlation was observed between openness and the length of time that alcohol has been consumed, as were significant and negative correlations between conscientiousness and both the length of time alcohol has been consumed and the number of doses. For alcoholics, extraversion emerged as a protective factor against depression development (P=0.008) and tobacco abuse (P=0.007), whereas openness worked as a protective factor against anxiety (P=0.02). The findings point to specific deficits presented by alcoholics in relation to personality traits with or without psychiatric comorbidities and to the understanding that therapeutic approaches should favor procedures and/or preventive measures that allow more refined awareness about the disorder.

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HIV infection has a broad spectrum of renal manifestations. This study examined the clinical and histological manifestations of HIV-associated renal disease, and predictors of renal outcomes. Sixty-one (64% male, mean age 45 years) HIV patients were retrospectively evaluated. Clinical presentation and renal histopathology were assessed, as well as CD4 T-cell count and viral load. The predictive value of histological lesion, baseline CD4 cell count and viral load for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death were determined using the Cox regression model. The outcomes of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and ESRD or death were evaluated by baseline CD4 cell count. The percent distribution at initial clinical presentation was non-nephrotic proteinuria (54%), acute kidney injury (28%), nephrotic syndrome (23%), and chronic kidney disease (22%). Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (28%), mainly the collapsing form (HIVAN), acute interstitial nephritis (AIN) (26%), and immune complex-mediated glomerulonephritis (ICGN) (25%) were the predominant renal histology. Baseline CD4 cell count ≥200 cells/mm3 was a protective factor against CKD (hazard ratio=0.997; 95%CI=0.994-0.999; P=0.012). At last follow-up, 64% of patients with baseline CD4 ≥200 cells/mm3 had eGFR >60 mL·min-1·(1.73 m2)-1 compared to the other 35% of patients who presented with CD4 <200 cells/mm3 (log rank=9.043, P=0.003). In conclusion, the main histological lesion of HIV-associated renal disease was HIVAN, followed by AIN and ICGN. These findings reinforce the need to biopsy HIV patients with kidney impairment and/or proteinuria. Baseline CD4 cell count ≥200 cells/mm3 was associated with better renal function after 2 years of follow-up.

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University of Turku, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine, Doctoral Programme of Clinical Investigation, Heart Center, Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland Division of Internal Medicine, Department of Cardiology, Seinäjoki Central Hospital, Seinäjoki, Finland Heart Center, Satakunta Central Hospital, Pori, Finland Annales Universitatis Turkuensis Painosalama Oy, Turku, Finland 2015 Antithrombotic therapy during and after coronary procedures always entails the challenging establishment of a balance between bleeding and thrombotic complications. It has been generally recommended to patients on long-term warfarin therapy to discontinue warfarin a few days prior to elective coronary angiography or intervention to prevent bleeding complications. Bridging therapy with heparin is recommended for patients at an increased risk of thromboembolism who require the interruption of anticoagulation for elective surgery or an invasive procedure. In study I, consecutive patients on warfarin therapy referred for diagnostic coronary angiography were compared to control patients with a similar disease presentation without warfarin. The strategy of performing coronary angiography during uninterrupted therapeutic warfarin anticoagulation appeared to be a relatively safe alternative to bridging therapy, if the international normalized ratio level was not on a supratherapeutic level. In-stent restenosis remains an important reason for failure of long-term success after a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce the problem of restenosis inherent to bare metal stents (BMS). However, a longer delay in arterial healing may extend the risk of stent thrombosis (ST) far beyond 30 days after the DES implantation. Early discontinuation of antiplatelet therapy has been the most important predisposing factor for ST. In study II, patients on long-term oral anticoagulant (OAC) underwent DES or BMS stenting with a median of 3.5 years’follow-up. The selective use of DESs with a short triple therapy seemed to be safe in OAC patients, since late STs were rare even without long clopidogrel treatment. Major bleeding and cardiac events were common in this patient group irrespective of stent type. In order to help to predict the bleeding risk in patients on OAC, several different bleeding risk scorings have been developed. Risk scoring systems have also been used also in the setting of patients undergoing a PCI. In study III, the predictive value of an outpatient bleeding risk index (OBRI) to identify patients at high risk of bleeding was analysed. The bleeding risk seemed not to modify periprocedural or long-term treatment choices in patients on OAC after a percutaneous coronary intervention. Patients with a high OBRI often had major bleeding episodes, and the OBRI may be suitable for risk evaluation in this patient group. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a novel technology for imaging intravascular coronary arteries. OCT is a light-based imaging modality that enables a 12–18 µm tissue axial resolution to visualize plaques in the vessel, possible dissections and thrombi as well as, stent strut appositions and coverage, and to measure the vessel lumen and lesions. In study IV, 30 days after titanium-nitride-oxide (TITANOX)-coated stent implantation, the binary stent strut coverage was satisfactory and the prevalence of malapposed struts was low as evaluated by OCT. Long-term clinical events in patients treated with (TITANOX)-coated bio-active stents (BAS) and paclitaxel-eluting stents (PES) in routine clinical practice were examined in study V. At the 3-year follow-up, BAS resulted in better long-term outcome when compared with PES with an infrequent need for target vessel revascularization. Keywords: anticoagulation, restenosis, thrombosis, bleeding, optical coherence tomography, titanium

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The aim of this study was to verify the efficiency of the BAX® system for the detection of Salmonella spp. in raw chicken meat. The conventional culture method (IN 62, MAP) was used as a reference method. A total of 8,813 chicken carcass samples were analyzed. In the first part of the study, 1,200 samples were analyzed using the BAX® System and the conventional culture method. In the second part, 7,613 samples were analyzed by the BAX® system, and the conventional method was used only for samples that tested positive for Salmonella spp. by the BAX® system. The sensitivity, specificity, relative accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value obtained in the first part of this study were 100%, 92.3%, 96.4%, 53.3% and 100%, respectively. The BAX® system showed no false-negative results and reduced the time to obtain presumptive positive results. It is a suitable method for use in laboratories that perform a large number of food samples analyses daily. However, the conventional method is still required to confirm the presence of Salmonella spp. in samples that test positive using the BAX® system.

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Very preterm birth is a risk for brain injury and abnormal neurodevelopment. While the incidence of cerebral palsy has decreased due to advances in perinatal and neonatal care, the rate of less severe neuromotor problems continues to be high in very prematurely born children. Neonatal brain imaging can aid in identifying children for closer follow-up and in providing parents information on developmental risks. This thesis aimed to study the predictive value of structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at term age, serial neonatal cranial ultrasound (cUS), and structured neurological examinations during the longitudinal follow-up for the neurodevelopment of very preterm born children up to 11 years of age as a part of the PIPARI Study (The Development and Functioning of Very Low Birth Weight Infants from Infancy to School Age). A further aim was to describe the associations between regional brain volumes and long-term neuromotor profile. The prospective follow-up comprised of the assessment of neurosensory development at 2 years of corrected age, cognitive development at 5 years of chronological age, and neuromotor development at 11 years of age. Neonatal brain imaging and structured neurological examinations predicted neurodevelopment at all age-points. The combination of neurological examination and brain MRI or cUS improved the predictive value of neonatal brain imaging alone. Decreased brain volumes associated with neuromotor performance. At the age of 11 years, the majority of the very preterm born children had age-appropriate neuromotor development and after-school sporting activities. Long-term clinical follow-up is recommended at least for all very preterm infants with major brain pathologies.

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Parental monitoring has long been stressed as an important parenting practice in reducing adolescent susceptibility to depression. An extensive review by Stattin and Kerr (2000), however, , revealed that researchers had confounded perceptions of parental monitoring (i.e., parental solicitation and control) with parental knowledge, and neglected to consider the role of adolescent willingness to disclose. In the present study, adolescents (N = 1995; 51.3% female) were surveyed at two time points (grade 10 and 11). To disentangle the role of perceived parenting, three central issues were addressed. First, the present study examined whether parental knowledge, adolescent disclosure, and parental monitoring (i.e., parental solicitation and control) in grade 10 predicted adolescent depression in grade 11. Second, the predictive value of adolescent depression in grade lOon parental knowledge, adolescent disclosure, parental solicitation and parental control in grade 11 was considered. Lastly, associations among parental knowledge, adolescent disclosure, parental solicitation and parental control were examined over time. Findings indicated that higher levels of parental knowledge were associated with subsequent lower levels of depressive symptoms, and that depressive symptoms predicted lower levels of parental knowledge over time. Both adolescent willingness to disclose and parental control predicted higher parental knowledge. These findings underscore the role of adolescent and perceived parent contributions to parental knowledge, and highlight the importance of perceived parental knowledge in predicting reduced adolescent susceptibility to depression.

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This thesis explored the development of several methodologies for the stereoselective construction of ligand frameworks and some of their applications. The first segment concerns the application of an enantioselective lithiation at an Sp3_ hybridized position adjacent to nitrogen by means of the widely used and typically highly effective enantioselective lithiation with ( -)-sparteine. This investigation was intended to develop a method to install chirality into a system that would be converted into a family of diaminoylidenes for use as phosphine mimics in transition metal catalysis or as nucleophilic reagents. Molecular modeling of the system revealed some key interactions between the substrate and (-)-sparteine that provided general insight into the diamine's mode of action and should lend some predictive value to its future applications. The second portion focuses on the development of methods to access 1,2- disubstituted aminoferrocenes, an underexplored class of metallocenes possessing planar chirality. Two routes were examined involving a diastereoselective and an enantioselective pathway, where the latter method made use of the first BF3-mediated lithiation-substitution to install planar chirality. Key derivatives such as 1,2- aminophosphines, made readily accessible by the new route, were evaluated as ligands for Pd(II), Pt(II) and Ir(I). These complexes show activity in a number of transformations with both achiral and prochiral substrates. Optimization experiments were conducted to prepare enantiomerically enriched 2-substituted-I-aminoferrocenes by direct asymmetric lithiation of BF3-coordinated tertiary aminoferrocenes. A predictive computational model describing the transition state of this reaction was developed in collaboration with Professor Travis Dudding's group (Department of Chemistry, Brock University). The predicted stereochemistry of the process was confirmed by single-crystal X-ray analysis of a 2-phosphino-l-dimethylaminoferrocene derivative. Enantiomerically pure samples of the aminophosphine ligands derived from this new process have given promising preliminary results in the enantioselective hydrogenation of prochiral alkenes and warrant further stUdy in metal-mediated catalysis.

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Later-born siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are considered at biological risk for ASD and the broader autism phenotype. Early screening may detect early signs of ASD and facilitate intervention as soon as possible. This follow-up study revisits and re-examines a second-degree autism screener for children at biological risk of autism, the Parent Observation Early Markers Scale (POEMS, Feldman et al., 2012). Using available follow-up information, 110 children (the original 108 infants plus 2 infants recruited after the completion of the original study) were divided into three groups: diagnosed group (n = 13), lost diagnosis group (n = 5), and undiagnosed group (n = 92). The POEMS continued to show acceptable predictive validity. The POEMS total scores and mean number of elevated items were significantly higher in the diagnosed group than the undiagnosed group. The lost diagnosis group did not differ from the undiagnosed group on POEMS total scores and elevated items at any age, but the lost diagnosis group had significantly lower total scores and number of elevated items than the diagnosed group starting at 18 months. Both ASD core and subsidiary behaviours differentiated the diagnosed and undiagnosed groups from 9−36 months of age. Using 70 as a cut-off score, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) were .69, .84, and .38, respectively. The study provides further evidence that the POEMS may serve as a low-cost early screener for ASD in at risk children and pinpoint specific developmental and behavioural problems that may be amenable to very early intervention.