Predicting smoking cessation and its relapse in HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess whether prospective follow-up data within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study can be used to predict patients who stop smoking; or among smokers who stop, those who start smoking again. METHODS: We built prediction models first using clinical reasoning ('clinical models') and then by selecting from numerous candidate predictors using advanced statistical methods ('statistical models'). Our clinical models were based on literature that suggests that motivation drives smoking cessation, while dependence drives relapse in those attempting to stop. Our statistical models were based on automatic variable selection using additive logistic regression with component-wise gradient boosting. RESULTS: Of 4833 smokers, 26% stopped smoking, at least temporarily; because among those who stopped, 48% started smoking again. The predictive performance of our clinical and statistical models was modest. A basic clinical model for cessation, with patients classified into three motivational groups, was nearly as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the most important predictors (the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits, alcohol or drug dependence, psychiatric comorbidities, recent hospitalization and age). A basic clinical model for relapse, based on the maximum number of cigarettes per day prior to stopping, was not as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting smoking cessation and relapse is difficult, so that simple models are nearly as discriminatory as complex ones. Patients with a history of attempting to stop and those known to have stopped recently are the best candidates for an intervention.

CO2 emissions and economic activity: heterogeneity across countries and non stationary series

This paper explores the homogeneity of the functional form, the parameters, and the turning point, when appropriate, of the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic activity for 31 countries (28 OECD, Brazil, China, and India) during the period 1950 to 2006 using cointegration analysis. With a sample highly overlapped over time between countries, the result reveals that the homogeneity across countries is rejected, both in functional form and in the parameters of long term relationship. This confirms the relevance of considering the heterogeneity in exploring the relationship between air pollution and economic activity to avoid spurious parameter estimates and infer a wrong behavior of the functional form, which could lead to induce that the relationship is reversed when in fact it is direct.

Modelos de viento aplicados a la mejora en la predicción de incendios forestales

La predicción de incendios forestales es uno de los grandes retos de la comunidad científica debido al impacto medioambiental, humano y económico que tienen en la sociedad. El comportamiento de este fenómeno es difícil de modelar debido a la gran cantidad de variables que intervienen y la dificultad que implica su correcta medición. Los simuladores de fuego son herramientas muy útiles pero, actualmente, los resultados que obtenemos tienen un alto grado de imprecisión. Desde nuestro grupo se ha trabajado en la predicción en dos etapas, donde antes de realizar cualquier predicción, se incorpora una etapa de ajuste de los parámetros de entrada para obtener mejores predicciones. Pese a la mejora que supone este nuevo paradigma de predicción, las simulaciones sobre incendios reales tienen un alto grado de error por el efecto de las condiciones meteorológicas que, usualmente, varían de manera notable durante el transcurso de la simulación. Uno de los factores más determinantes en el comportamiento de un incendio, junto con las características del terreno, es el viento. Los modelos de predicción son extremadamente sensibles al cambio en los componentes de dirección y velocidad del viento por lo que cualquier mejora que podamos introducir para mejorar la calidad de estas componentes influye directamente en la calidad de la predicción. Nuestro sistema de predicción utiliza la dirección y velocidad del viento de forma global en todo el terreno, y lo que proponemos con este trabajo es introducir un modelo de vientos que nos permita generar vientos locales en todas las celdas en las que se divide el terreno. Este viento local dependerá del viento general y de las características del terreno de dichas celdas. Consideramos que la utilización de un viento general no es suficiente para realizar una buena predicción del comportamiento de un incendio y hemos comprobado que la inclusión de un simulador de campo de vientos en nuestro sistema puede llegar a mejorar nuestras predicciones considerablemente. Los resultados obtenidos en los experimentos sintéticos que hemos realizado nos hacen ser optimistas, puesto que consideramos que la inclusión de componentes de viento locales permitirá mejorar nuestras predicciones en incendios reales.

Decreased PM10 exposure attenuates age-related lung function decline: genetic variants in p53, p21, and CCND1 modify this effect.

BACKGROUND: Decreasing exposure to airborne particulates was previously associated with reduced age-related decline in lung function. However, whether the benefit from improved air quality depends on genetic background is not known. Recent evidence points to the involvement of the genes p53 and p21 and of the cell cycle control gene cyclin D1 (CCND1) in the response of bronchial cells to air pollution. OBJECTIVE: We determined in 4,326 participants of the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA) whether four single-nucleotide polymorphisms in three genes [CCND1 (rs9344 [P242P], rs667515), p53 (rs1042522 [R72P]), and p21 (rs1801270 [S31R])] modified the previously observed attenuation of the decline in the forced expiratory flow between 25% and 75% of the forced vital capacity (FEF(25-75)) associated with improved air quality. METHODS: Subjects of the prospective population-based SAPALDIA cohort were assessed in 1991 and 2002 by spirometry, questionnaires, and biological sample collection for genotyping. We assigned spatially resolved concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM(10)) to each participant's residential history 12 months before the baseline and follow-up assessments. RESULTS: The effect of diminishing PM(10) exposure on FEF(25-75) decline appeared to be modified by p53 R72P, CCND1 P242P, and CCND1 rs667515. For example, a 10-microg/m(3) decline in average PM(10) exposure over an 11-year period attenuated the average annual decline in FEF(25-75) by 21.33 mL/year (95% confidence interval, 10.57-32.08) among participants homozygous for the CCND1 (P242P) GG genotype, by 13.72 mL/year (5.38-22.06) among GA genotypes, and by 6.00 mL/year (-4.54 to 16.54) among AA genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that cell cycle control genes may modify the degree to which improved air quality may benefit respiratory function in adults.

Bulky DNA adducts, 4-aminobiphenyl-haemoglobin adducts and diet in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) prospective study

In contrast to some extensively examined food mutagens, for example, aflatoxins, N-nitrosamines and heterocyclic amines, some other food contaminants, in particular polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and other aromatic compounds, have received less attention. Therefore, exploring the relationships between dietary habits and the levels of biomarkers related to exposure to aromatic compounds is highly relevant. We have investigated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort the association between dietary items (food groups and nutrients) and aromatic DNA adducts and 4-aminobiphenyl-Hb adducts. Both types of adducts are biomarkers of carcinogen exposure and possibly of cancer risk, and were measured, respectively, in leucocytes and erythrocytes of 1086 (DNA adducts) and 190 (Hb adducts) non-smokers. An inverse, statistically significant, association has been found between DNA adduct levels and dietary fibre intake (P = 0·02), vitamin E (P = 0·04) and alcohol (P = 0·03) but not with other nutrients or food groups. Also, an inverse association between fibre and fruit intake, and BMI and 4-aminobiphenyl-Hb adducts (P = 0·03, 0·04, and 0·03 respectively) was observed. After multivariate regression analysis these inverse correlations remained statistically significant, except for the correlation adducts v. fruit intake. The present study suggests that fibre intake in the usual range can modify the level of DNA or Hb aromatic adducts, but such role seems to be quantitatively modest. Fibres could reduce the formation of DNA adducts in different manners, by diluting potential food mutagens and carcinogens in the gastrointestinal tract, by speeding their transit through the colon and by binding carcinogenic substances.

Effect of Temperature on the Development and Survival of the Argentine Ant, Linepithema humile

The influence of temperature on the developmental times and survival of insects can largely determine their distribution. For invasive species, like the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile Mayr (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), these data are essential for predicting their potential range based on mechanistic models. In the case of this species, such data are too scarce and incomplete to make accurate predictions based on its physiological needs. This research provides comprehensive new data about brood survival and developmental times at a wide range of temperatures under laboratory conditions. Temperature affected both the complete brood development from egg to adult worker and each of the immature stages separately. The higher the temperature, the shorter the development times. Brood survival from egg to adult was low, with the maximum survival rate being only 16% at 26º C. Temperature also affected survival of each of the immature stages differently: eggs were negatively affected by high temperatures, while larvae were negatively affected by low temperatures, and the survival of pupae was apparentlyindependent of environmental temperature. At 32º C no eggs survived, while at 18º C less than 2% of the eggs hatched into larva. The data from the present study are essential for developing prediction models about the distribution range of this tramp species based on its physiological needs in relation to temperature

Estudi de l'evolució dels nivells d'immissió dels contaminant emesos per la incineradora de Campdorà (Girona)

L’ objectiu principal d’ aquest treball és l’ anàlisi de l’ evolució de l’ impacte ambiental produït per l’ emissió de gasos contaminants procedents de la incineradora de Campdorà (Girona). Els gasos contaminants objecte d’ estudi són: partícules de suspensió totals, clorur d’ hidrogen, diòxid de nitrogen, monòxid de carboni i diòxid de sofre. S’ ha realitzat la simulació de la dispersió atmosfèrica dels contaminants emesos per la incineradora de Campdorà mitjançant el programa informàtic ISC-AERMOD View. Com a resultat, s’ obtenen una sèrie de mapes de concentració on es mostren els diferents nivells d’ immissió detectats en la zona objecte d’ estudi. Els resultats mostren com la incorporació de noves tecnologies i tractaments de gasos en la incineradora de Campdorà han representat una reducció dels nivells d’ immissió de la zona, millorant la qualitat de l’ aire i disminuint l’ impacte ambiental que produeixen les emissions contaminants

2013, declarado año del aire

Boletín semanal para profesionales sanitarios de la Secretaría General de Salud Pública, Inclusión y Calidad de Vida de la Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social

Ozono y salud

Publicado en la página web de la Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social: www.juntadeandalucia.es/salud (Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social / Ciudadanía / Nuestra Salud / Medio ambiente y Salud / Ozono y Salud / Contaminación por ozono y salud)

Ozono y salud

Publicado en la página web de la Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social: www.juntadeandalucia.es/salud (Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social / Ciudadanía / Nuestra Salud / Medio ambiente y Salud / Ozono y Salud / Contaminación por ozono y salud)

A three-year aeropalynological study in Estepona (southern Spain).

An aeropalynological study was carried out in the atmosphere of Estepona, a very popular tourist resort situated in the "Costa del Sol", (southern Spain) based on the data obtained during a three year air-monitoring programme (March 1995 to March 1998) using a volumetric pollen trap. The 34 taxa that reached a 10-day mean air pollen concentration equal to or greater than 1 grain of pollen/m(3) of air are reflected in the calendar. The first 10 taxa, in order of abundance, were: Cupressaceae, Olea europaea, Quercus, Poaceae, Urticaceae, Plantago, Pinus, Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, Ericaceae and Castanea, the first 3 of which accounted for approximately 56 % of the annual total pollen count. The greatest diversity of pollen type occurred during spring, while the highest pollen concentrations were reached from February-June, when approximately more than 80 % of the annual total pollen was registered. The lowest concentrations were obtaining during January, August and September. The annual quantity of pollen collected, the intensity and the dates on which the maximum peaks were recorded differed for the 3 years studied, which can be explained by reference to various meteorological parameters, especially rainfall and temperature. The pollen calendar spectrum is typically Mediterranean and similar to those of nearby localities, in which many pollen types are represented and the long tails indicating long flowering periods.

Antifungals in the ICU.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Invasive fungal infections remain a serious complication for critically ill ICU patients. The aim of this article is to review recent efficacy data of newer antifungal agents for the treatment of invasive candidiasis. The influence that recent epidemiological trends, advances in diagnostic testing, and risk prediction methods exert on the optimization of antifungal therapy for critically ill ICU patients will also be reviewed. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent clinical trials have documented the clinical efficacy of the echinocandins and the newer triazoles for the management of invasive candidiasis. Thus far, resistance to echinocandins remains rare. Changes in the epidemiology of Candida spp. causing invasive candidiasis, such as an increasing relative proportion of non-albicans Candida spp., have not been universally reported, although they have important implications for the use of fluconazole as first-line therapy for invasive candidiasis. Efforts to improve the timeliness and accuracy of laboratory diagnostic techniques and clinical prediction models to allow early and accurately targeted antifungal intervention strategies continue. SUMMARY: Echinocandins, given their clinical efficacy, spectrum of activity, and favourable pharmacological properties, are likely to replace fluconazole as initial antifungal agents of choice among critically ill ICU patients. The optimization of patient outcomes will require more accurately targeted early antifungal intervention strategies based upon sensitive and specific biological and clinical markers of risk.

El proyecto EMECAM: Estudio Multicéntrico Español sobre la Relación entre la Contaminación Atmosférica y la Mortalidad. Antecedentes, participantes, objetivos y métodología.

In recent years, a growing number of studies suggests that increases in air pollution levels may have short-term impact on human health, even at pollution levels similar to or lower than those which have been considered to be safe to date. The different methodological approaches and the varying analysis techniques employed have made it difficult to make a direct comparison among all of the findings, preventing any clear conclusions from being drawn. This has led to multicenter projects such as the APHEA (Short-Term Impact of Air Pollution on Health. A European Approach) within a European Scope. The EMECAM Project falls within the context of the aforesaid multicenter studies and has a wide-ranging projection nationwide within Spain. Fourteen (14) cities throughout Spain were included in this Project (Barcelona, Metropolitan Area of Bilbao, Cartagena, Castellón, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Pamplona, Seville, Oviedo, Valencia, Vigo, Vitoria and Saragossa) representing different sociodemographic, climate and environmental situations, adding up to a total of nearly nine million inhabitants. The objective of the EMECAM project is that to asses the short-term impact of air pollution throughout all of the participating cities on the mortality for all causes, on the population and on individuals over age 70, for respiratory and cardiovascular design causes. For this purpose, with an ecological, the time series data analyzed taking the daily deaths, pollutants, temperature data and other factors taken from records kept by public institutions. The period of time throughout which this study was conducted, although not exactly the same for all of the cities involved, runs in all cases from 1990 to 1996. The degree of relationship measured by means of an autoregressive Poisson regression. In the future, the results of each city will be combined by means of a meta-analysis.

Effect of Temperature on the Development and Survival of the Argentine Ant, Linepithema humile

The influence of temperature on the developmental times and survival of insects can largely determine their distribution. For invasive species, like the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile Mayr (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), these data are essential for predicting their potential range based on mechanistic models. In the case of this species, such data are too scarce and incomplete to make accurate predictions based on its physiological needs. This research provides comprehensive new data about brood survival and developmental times at a wide range of temperatures under laboratory conditions. Temperature affected both the complete brood development from egg to adult worker and each of the immature stages separately. The higher the temperature, the shorter the development times. Brood survival from egg to adult was low, with the maximum survival rate being only 16% at 26° C. Temperature also affected survival of each of the immature stages differently: eggs were negatively affected by high temperatures, while larvae were negatively affected by low temperatures, and the survival of pupae was apparently independent of environmental temperature. At 32° C no eggs survived, while at 18° C less than 2% of the eggs hatched into larva. The data from the present study are essential for developing prediction models about the distribution range of this tramp species based on its physiological needs in relation to temperature