905 resultados para Population balance model (PBM)


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Sex determination is often seen as a dichotomous process: individual sex is assumed to be determined either by genetic (genotypic sex determination, GSD) or by environmental factors (environmental sex determination, ESD), most often temperature (temperature sex determination, TSD). We endorse an alternative view, which sees GSD and TSD as the ends of a continuum. Both effects interact a priori, because temperature can affect gene expression at any step along the sex-determination cascade. We propose to define sex-determination systems at the population- (rather than individual) level, via the proportion of variance in phenotypic sex stemming from genetic versus environmental factors, and we formalize this concept in a quantitative-genetics framework. Sex is seen as a threshold trait underlain by a liability factor, and reaction norms allow modeling interactions between genotypic and temperature effects (seen as the necessary consequences of thermodynamic constraints on the underlying physiological processes). As this formalization shows, temperature changes (due to e.g., climatic changes or range expansions) are expected to provoke turnovers in sex-determination mechanisms, by inducing large-scale sex reversal and thereby sex-ratio selection for alternative sex-determining genes. The frequency of turnovers and prevalence of homomorphic sex chromosomes in cold-blooded vertebrates might thus directly relate to the temperature dependence in sex-determination mechanisms.

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Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.

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Small or decreasing populations call for emergency actions like, for example, captive breeding programs. Such programs aim at rapidly increasing population sizes in order to reduce the loss of genetic variability and to avoid possible Allee effects. The Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni is one of the species that is currently supported in several captive breeding programs at various locations. Here, we model the demographic and genetic consequences of potential management strategies that are based on offspring sex ratio manipulation. Increased population growth could be achieved by manipulating female conditions and/or male attractiveness in the captive breeders and consequently shifting the offspring sex ratio towards more female offspring, which are then used for reintroduction. Fragmenting populations into wild-breeding and captive-breeding demes and manipulating population sex ratio both immediately increase the inbreeding coefficient in the next generation (i.e. decrease N-e) but may, in the long term, reduce the loss of genetic variability if population growth is restricted by the number of females. We use the Lesser Kestrel and the wealth of information that is available on this species to predict the long-term consequences of various kinds of sex-ratio manipulation. We find that, in our example and possibly in many other cases, a sex-ratio manipulation that seems realistic could have a beneficial effect on the captive breeding program. However, the possible long-term costs and benefits of such measures need to be carefully optimized.

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Pharmacokinetic variability in drug levels represent for some drugs a major determinant of treatment success, since sub-therapeutic concentrations might lead to toxic reactions, treatment discontinuation or inefficacy. This is true for most antiretroviral drugs, which exhibit high inter-patient variability in their pharmacokinetics that has been partially explained by some genetic and non-genetic factors. The population pharmacokinetic approach represents a very useful tool for the description of the dose-concentration relationship, the quantification of variability in the target population of patients and the identification of influencing factors. It can thus be used to make predictions and dosage adjustment optimization based on Bayesian therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). This approach has been used to characterize the pharmacokinetics of nevirapine (NVP) in 137 HIV-positive patients followed within the frame of a TDM program. Among tested covariates, body weight, co-administration of a cytochrome (CYP) 3A4 inducer or boosted atazanavir as well as elevated aspartate transaminases showed an effect on NVP elimination. In addition, genetic polymorphism in the CYP2B6 was associated with reduced NVP clearance. Altogether, these factors could explain 26% in NVP variability. Model-based simulations were used to compare the adequacy of different dosage regimens in relation to the therapeutic target associated with treatment efficacy. In conclusion, the population approach is very useful to characterize the pharmacokinetic profile of drugs in a population of interest. The quantification and the identification of the sources of variability is a rational approach to making optimal dosage decision for certain drugs administered chronically.

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PURPOSE: The longitudinal relaxation rate (R1 ) measured in vivo depends on the local microstructural properties of the tissue, such as macromolecular, iron, and water content. Here, we use whole brain multiparametric in vivo data and a general linear relaxometry model to describe the dependence of R1 on these components. We explore a) the validity of having a single fixed set of model coefficients for the whole brain and b) the stability of the model coefficients in a large cohort. METHODS: Maps of magnetization transfer (MT) and effective transverse relaxation rate (R2 *) were used as surrogates for macromolecular and iron content, respectively. Spatial variations in these parameters reflected variations in underlying tissue microstructure. A linear model was applied to the whole brain, including gray/white matter and deep brain structures, to determine the global model coefficients. Synthetic R1 values were then calculated using these coefficients and compared with the measured R1 maps. RESULTS: The model's validity was demonstrated by correspondence between the synthetic and measured R1 values and by high stability of the model coefficients across a large cohort. CONCLUSION: A single set of global coefficients can be used to relate R1 , MT, and R2 * across the whole brain. Our population study demonstrates the robustness and stability of the model. Magn Reson Med, 2014. © 2014 The Authors. Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Magn Reson Med 73:1309-1314, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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Purpose: The retinal balance between pro- and anti-angiogenic factors is critical for angiogenesis control, but is also involved in cell survival. We previously reported upregulation of VEGF and photoreceptor (PR) cell death in the Light-damage (LD) model. Preliminary results showed that anti-VEGF can rescue PR from cell death. Thus, we investigated the role of VEGF on the retina and we herein described the effect of anti-VEGF antibody delivered by lentiviral gene transfer in this model.Methods: To characterize the action of VEGF during the LD, we exposed Balb/c mice subretinally injected with LV-anti-VEGF, or not, to 5'000 lux for 1h. We next evaluated the retinal function, PR survival and protein expression (VEGF, VEGFR1/2, Src, PEDF, p38MAPK, Akt, Peripherin, SWL-opsin) after LD. We analyzed Blood retinal barrier (BRB) integrity on flat-mounted RPE and cryosections stained with β-catenin, ZO-1, N-cadherin and albumin.Results: Results indicate that the VEGF pathway is modulated after LD. LD leads to extravascular albumin leakage and BRB breakdown: β-catenin, ZO-1 and N-cadherin translocate to the cytoplasm of RPE cells showing loss of cell cohesion. This phenomenon is in adequacy with the VEGF time-course expression. Assessment of the retinal function reveals that PR rescue correlates with the level of LV-anti-VEGF expression. Rhodopsin content was higher in the LV-anti-VEGF group than in controls and measures of the ONL thickness indicate that LV-anti-VEGF preserves by 82% the outer nuclear layer from degeneration. Outer segments (OS) appeared well organized with an appropriate length in the LV-anti-VEGF group compared to controls, and the expression of SWL-opsin is maintained in the OS without being mislocalized as in the LV-GFP group. Finally, LV-anti-VEGF treatment prevents BRB breakdown and maintained RPE cell integrity.Conclusions: This study involves VEGF in LD and highlights the prime importance of the BRB integrity for PR survival. Taken together, these results show that anti-VEGF is neuroprotective in this model and maintains functional PR layer in LD-treated mice.

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Identifying the geographic distribution of populations is a basic, yet crucial step in many fundamental and applied ecological projects, as it provides key information on which many subsequent analyses depend. However, this task is often costly and time consuming, especially where rare species are concerned and where most sampling designs generally prove inefficient. At the same time, rare species are those for which distribution data are most needed for their conservation to be effective. To enhance fieldwork sampling, model-based sampling (MBS) uses predictions from species distribution models: when looking for the species in areas of high habitat suitability, chances should be higher to find them. We thoroughly tested the efficiency of MBS by conducting an important survey in the Swiss Alps, assessing the detection rate of three rare and five common plant species. For each species, habitat suitability maps were produced following an ensemble modeling framework combining two spatial resolutions and two modeling techniques. We tested the efficiency of MBS and the accuracy of our models by sampling 240 sites in the field (30 sitesx8 species). Across all species, the MBS approach proved to be effective. In particular, the MBS design strictly led to the discovery of six sites of presence of one rare plant, increasing chances to find this species from 0 to 50%. For common species, MBS doubled the new population discovery rates as compared to random sampling. Habitat suitability maps coming from the combination of four individual modeling methods predicted well the species' distribution and more accurately than the individual models. As a conclusion, using MBS for fieldwork could efficiently help in increasing our knowledge of rare species distribution. More generally, we recommend using habitat suitability models to support conservation plans.

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PURPOSE: Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) expand because of aortic wall destruction. Enrichment in Vascular Smooth Muscle Cells (VSMCs) stabilizes expanding AAAs in rats. Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSCs) can differentiate into VSMCs. We have tested the hypothesis that bone marrow-derived MSCs (BM-MSCs) stabilizes AAAs in a rat model. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Rat Fischer 344 BM-MSCs were isolated by plastic adhesion and seeded endovascularly in experimental AAAs using xenograft obtained from guinea pig. Culture medium without cells was used as control group. The main criteria was the variation of the aortic diameter at one week and four weeks. We evaluated the impact of cells seeding on inflammatory response by immunohistochemistry combined with RT-PCR on MMP9 and TIMP1 at one week. We evaluated the healing process by immunohistochemistry at 4 weeks. RESULTS: The endovascular seeding of BM-MSCs decreased AAA diameter expansion more powerfully than VSMCs or culture medium infusion (6.5% ± 9.7, 25.5% ± 17.2 and 53.4% ± 14.4; p = .007, respectively). This result was sustained at 4 weeks. BM-MSCs decreased expression of MMP-9 and infiltration by macrophages (4.7 ± 2.3 vs. 14.6 ± 6.4 mm(2) respectively; p = .015), increased Tissue Inhibitor Metallo Proteinase-1 (TIMP-1), compared to culture medium infusion. BM-MSCs induced formation of a neo-aortic tissue rich in SM-alpha active positive cells (22.2 ± 2.7 vs. 115.6 ± 30.4 cells/surface units, p = .007) surrounded by a dense collagen and elastin network covered by luminal endothelial cells. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown in this rat model of AAA that BM-MSCs exert a specialized function in arterial regeneration that transcends that of mature mesenchymal cells. Our observation identifies a population of cells easy to isolate and to expand for therapeutic interventions based on catheter-driven cell therapy.

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La douleur neuropathique est une forme de douleur chronique apparaissant suite à des lésions du système nerveux somato-sensoriel. Caractérisée par une plasticité neuronale inadapté, elle est très souvent intense, invalidante, associe des symptômes comme l'allodynie ou l' hyperalgésie et reste difficile à traiter avec les agents thérapeutiques actuels. Le thème de mon travail de thèse se concentre sur des mécanismes moléculaires de modulation des canaux sodiques voltage-dépendants suite à une lésion du nerf périphérique. Dans l'article présenté en annexe, j'ai focalisé mon travail sur une protéine, Nedd4-2, qui est une ligase ubiquitine. Elle a pour rôle de réguler et d'internaliser dans la cellule des protéines membranaires dont les canaux sodiques. Suite aux lésions du système nerveux périphérique, il existe une hyperexcitabilité neuronale engendrée notamment par un surplus et une dysrégulation des canaux sodiques à la membrane cellulaire. Dans 1 'hypothèse que l'ubiquitine ligase Nedd4-2 soit présente dans les neurones sensitifs primaires et ait un rôle dans la régulation des canaux sodiques, nous avons identifié cette protéine dans les neurones nociceptifs primaires du rat. En utilisant des techniques de Western Blot et d'immunohistochimie, j'ai trouvé que Nedd4-2 est présente dans presque 50% des neurones du ganglion spinal et ces neurones sont principalement des neurones nociceptifs. Dans un modèle expérimental de douleur neuropathique (SN I, pour spared nerve injury), Nedd4-2 se retrouve significativement diminuée dans le tissu du ganglion spinal. J'ai également investigué 1' expression de 2 isoformes des canaux sodiques connues pour leur implication dans la douleur, Navl.7 et Navl.8, et ces 2 isoformes se retrouvent dans les mêmes neurones que Nedd4-2. La caractérisation détaillée est décrite dans le manuscrit: «Neuronal expression of the ubiquitin ligase Nedd4-2 in rat dorsal root ganglia: modulation in the SNI model of neuropathic pain; Cachemaille M, Laedermann CJ, Pertin M, Abriel H, Gasselin RD, Decosterd 1.» Les résultats obtenus indiquent que Nedd4-2, en étant downrégulé après une lésion nerveuse, pourrait ainsi contribuer à une augmentation des canaux sodiques fonctionnels à la membrane. Ainsi Nedd4-2 pourrait être proposée comme cible thérapeutique de manière alternative aux bloqueurs de canaux sodiques. Ce travail a permis l'initiation d'autres expériences. J'ai contribué activement à la construction de vecteurs viraux type adéno-associé recombinant (rAA V2/6) et surexprimé la protéine in vivo dans les ganglions spinaux. Cette partie de mon travail se trouve intégrée dans d'autres travaux de mon laboratoire d'accueil qui a pu démontrer les effets fonctionnels de cette approche sur les courants sodiques enregistrés par électrophysiologie et une diminution de la douleur neuropathique chez la souris. - Abstract-Neuronal hyperexcitability following peripheral nerve lesions may stem from altered activity of voltagegated sodium channels (VGSCs), which gives rise toallodynia or hyperalgesia. In vitro, the ubiquitin ligase Nedd4-2 is a negative regulator of VGSC a-subunits (Nav), in particular Nav1.7, a key actor in nociceptor excitability. We therefore studied Nedd4-2 in rat nociceptors, its co-expression with Nav1.7 and Nav1.8, and its regulation in pathology. Adult rats were submitted to the spared nerve injury (SNI) model of neuropathic pain or injected with complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA), a model of inflammatory pain. L4 dorsal root ganglia (DRG) were analyzed in shamoperated animals, seven days after SNI and 48 h after CFA with immunofluorescence and Western blot. We observed Nedd4-2 expression in almost 50% of DRG neurons, mostly small and medium-sized. A preponderant localization is found in the non-peptidergic sub-population. Additionally, 55.7± 2.7% and 55.0 ±3.6% of Nedd4-2-positive cells are co-labeled with Nav1.7 and Nav1.8 respectively. SNI significantly decreases the proportion of Nedd4-2-positive neurons from 45.9± 1.9% to 33.5± 0.7% (p < 0.01) and the total Nedd4-2 protein to 44%± 0.13% of its basal level (p <0.01, n = 4 animals in each group, mean± SEM). In contrast, no change in Nedd4-2 was found after peripheral inflammation induced by CFA. These results indicate that Nedd4-2 is present in nociceptive neurons, is downregulated after peripheral nerve injury, and might therefore contribute to the dysregulation of Navs involved in the hyperexcitability associated with peripheral nerve injuries.

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AIMS: A large interindividual variability in plasma concentrations has been reported in patients treated with donepezil, the most frequently prescribed antidementia drug. We aimed to evaluate clinical and genetic factors influencing donepezil disposition in a patient population recruited from a naturalistic setting. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic study was performed including data from 129 older patients treated with donepezil. The patients were genotyped for common polymorphisms in the metabolic enzymes CYP2D6 and CYP3A, in the electron transferring protein POR and the nuclear factor NR1I2 involved in CYP activity and expression, and in the drug transporter ABCB1. RESULTS: The average donepezil clearance was 7.3 l h(-1) with a 30% interindividual variability. Gender markedly influenced donepezil clearance (P < 0.01). Functional alleles of CYP2D6 were identified as unique significant genetic covariate for donepezil clearance (P < 0.01), with poor metabolizers and ultrarapid metabolizers demonstrating, respectively, a 32% slower and a 67% faster donepezil elimination compared with extensive metabolizers. CONCLUSION: The pharmacokinetic parameters of donepezil were well described by the developed population model. Functional alleles of CYP2D6 significantly contributed to the variability in donepezil disposition in the patient population and should be further investigated in the context of individual dose optimization to improve clinical outcome and tolerability of the treatment.

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Machado-Joseph disease or Spinocerebellar ataxia type 3 is a progressive fatal neurodegenerative disorder caused by the polyglutamine-expanded protein ataxin-3. Recent studies demonstrate that RNA interference is a promising approach for the treatment of Machado-Joseph disease. However, whether gene silencing at an early time-point is able to prevent the appearance of motor behavior deficits typical of the disease when initiated before onset of the disease had not been explored. Here, using a lentiviral-mediated allele-specific silencing of mutant ataxin-3 in an early pre-symptomatic cerebellar mouse model of Machado-Joseph disease we show that this strategy hampers the development of the motor and neuropathological phenotypic characteristics of the disease. At the histological level, the RNA-specific silencing of mutant ataxin-3 decreased formation of mutant ataxin-3 aggregates, preserved Purkinje cell morphology and expression of neuronal markers while reducing cell death. Importantly, gene silencing prevented the development of impairments in balance, motor coordination, gait and hyperactivity observed in control mice. These data support the therapeutic potential of RNA interference for Machado-Joseph disease and constitute a proof of principle of the beneficial effects of early allele-specific silencing for therapy of this disease.

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When individuals learn by trial-and-error, they perform randomly chosen actions and then reinforce those actions that led to a high payoff. However, individuals do not always have to physically perform an action in order to evaluate its consequences. Rather, they may be able to mentally simulate actions and their consequences without actually performing them. Such fictitious learners can select actions with high payoffs without making long chains of trial-and-error learning. Here, we analyze the evolution of an n-dimensional cultural trait (or artifact) by learning, in a payoff landscape with a single optimum. We derive the stochastic learning dynamics of the distance to the optimum in trait space when choice between alternative artifacts follows the standard logit choice rule. We show that for both trial-and-error and fictitious learners, the learning dynamics stabilize at an approximate distance of root n/(2 lambda(e)) away from the optimum, where lambda(e) is an effective learning performance parameter depending on the learning rule under scrutiny. Individual learners are thus unlikely to reach the optimum when traits are complex (n large), and so face a barrier to further improvement of the artifact. We show, however, that this barrier can be significantly reduced in a large population of learners performing payoff-biased social learning, in which case lambda(e) becomes proportional to population size. Overall, our results illustrate the effects of errors in learning, levels of cognition, and population size for the evolution of complex cultural traits. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

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Introduction: Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib has been increasingly proposed for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) patients, as several studies have found a correlation between trough concentrations (Cmin) >=1000ng/ml and improved response. The pharmacological monitoring project of EUTOS (European Treatment and Outcome Study) was launched to increase the availability of imatinib TDM, standardize labs, and validate proposed Cmin thresholds. Using the collected data, the objective of this analysis was to characterize imatinib Population pharmacokinetics (Pop-PK) in a large cohort of European patients, to quantify its variability and the influence of demographic factors and comedications, and to derive individual exposure variables suitable for further concentration-effect analyses.¦Methods: 4095 PK samples from 2478 adult patients were analyzed between 2006 and 2010 by LC-MS-MS and considered for Pop-PK analysis by NONMEM®. Model building used data from 973 patients with >=2 samples available (2590 samples). A sensitivity analysis was performed using all data. Available comedications (27%) were classified into inducers or inhibitors of P-glycoprotein, CYP3A4/5 and organic-cation-transporter-1 (hOCT-1).¦Results: A one-compartment model with linear elimination, zero-order absorption fitted the data best. Estimated Pop-PK parameters (interindividual variability, IIV %CV) for a 40-year old male patient were: clearance CL = 17.3 L/h (37.7%), volume V = 429L (51.1%), duration of absorption D1 = 3.2h. Outliers, reflecting potential compliance and time recording errors, were taken into account by estimating an IIV on the residual error (35.4%). Intra-individual residuals were 29.1% (proportional) plus ± 84.6 ng/mL (additive). Female patients had a 15.2% lower CL (14.6 L/h). A piece-wise linear effect of age estimated a CL of 18.7 L/h at 20 years, 17.3 L/h at 40 and 13.8 L/h at 60 years. These covariates explained 2% (CL) and 4.5% (V) of IIV variability. No effect of comedication was found. The sensitivity analysis expectedly estimated increased IIV, but similar fixed effect parameters.¦Conclusion: Imatinib PK was well described in a large cohort of CML patients under field conditions and results were concordant with previous studies. Patient characteristics explain only little IIV, confirming limited utility of prior dosage adjustment. As intra-variability is smaller than inter-patient variability, dose adjustment guided by TDM could however be beneficial in order to bring Cmin into a given therapeutic target.

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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status (SES) tends to change over time and across populations. In this study, we examined, separately in men and women, whether the association between BMI and SES changed over successive birth cohorts in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region). METHODS: We used data from all participants in three surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004 in independent random samples of the population aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles (N= 3'403). We used linear regression to model mean BMI according to age, cohort, SES and smoking status, allowing for a quadratic term for age to account for a curvilinear relation between BMI and age and interactions between SES and age and between SES and cohorts to test whether the relation between SES and BMI changed across subsequent cohorts. All analyses were performed separately in men and women. RESULTS: BMI increased with age in all birth cohorts. BMI was lower in men of low SES than high SES but was higher in women of low SES than high SES. In all SES categories, BMI increased over successive cohorts (1.24 kg/m2 in men and 1.51 kg/m2 for a 10-year increase in birth cohorts, p <0.001). The difference in BMI between men or women of high vs. low SES did not change significantly across successive cohorts (the interaction between SES and year of birth of cohort was statistically not significant). Smoking was associated with lower BMI in men and women (respectively -1.55 kg/m2 and 2.46 kg/m2, p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although large differences exist between men and women, social patterning of BMI did not change significantly over successive cohorts in this population of a middle-income country in the African region.