Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Managing technology in oil pipelines industry

Operating oil pipelines in an optimum capacity through out its life, effective construction management and failure free operations are considered as critical success factors in oil transportation business. Operating oil pipelines in derated capacity due to deteriorating pipeline health or lack of demand, non-ability of augmenting pipeline capacity despite of demand, non-achievement of time, cost, and quality of pipeline construction projects, and many failures of pipelines despite of huge expenditure in inspection and maintenance are the common phenomena in oil pipelines industry. These not only cause business loss, but also increase stakeholders' concerns for sustainable development. This study addresses the above issues using an analytical framework through stakeholders' involvement. Copyright © 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Understanding the yeast host cell response to recombinant membrane protein production

Membrane proteins are drug targets for a wide range of diseases. Having access to appropriate samples for further research underpins the pharmaceutical industry's strategy for developing new drugs. This is typically achieved by synthesizing a protein of interest in host cells that can be cultured on a large scale, allowing the isolation of the pure protein in quantities much higher than those found in the protein's native source. Yeast is a popular host as it is a eukaryote with similar synthetic machinery to that of the native human source cells of many proteins of interest, while also being quick, easy and cheap to grow and process. Even in these cells, the production of human membrane proteins can be plagued by low functional yields; we wish to understand why. We have identified molecular mechanisms and culture parameters underpinning high yields and have consolidated our findings to engineer improved yeast host strains. By relieving the bottlenecks to recombinant membrane protein production in yeast, we aim to contribute to the drug discovery pipeline, while providing insight into translational processes.

Vibrational methods applied to NDT testing and fluid density measurement

A system for the NDI' testing of the integrity of conposite materials and of adhesive bonds has been developed to meet industrial requirements. The vibration techniques used were found to be applicable to the development of fluid measuring transducers. The vibrational spectra of thin rectangular bars were used for the NDT work. A machined cut in a bar had a significant effect on the spectrum but a genuine crack gave an unambiguous response at high amplitudes. This was the generation of fretting crack noise at frequencies far above that of the drive. A specially designed vibrational decrement meter which, in effect, measures mechanical energy loss enabled a numerical classification of material adhesion to be obtained. This was used to study bars which had been flame or plasma sprayed with a variety of materials. It has become a useful tool in optimising coating methods. A direct industrial application was to classify piston rings of high performance I.C. engines. Each consists of a cast iron ring with a channel into which molybdenum, a good bearing surface, is sprayed. The NDT classification agreed quite well with the destructive test normally used. The techniques and equipment used for the NOT work were applied to the development of the tuning fork transducers investigated by Hassan into commercial density and viscosity devices. Using narrowly spaced, large area tines a thin lamina of fluid is trapped between them. It stores a large fraction of the vibrational energy which, acting as an inertia load reduces the frequency. Magnetostrictive and piezoelectric effects together or in combination enable the fork to be operated through a flange. This allows it to be used in pipeline or 'dipstick' applications. Using a different tine geometry the viscosity loading can be predoninant. This as well as the signal decrement of the density transducer makes a practical viscometer.

Flexible high speed machinery

The thesis describes an investigation into methods for the design of flexible high-speed product processing machinery, consisting of independent electromechanically actuated machine functions which operate under software coordination and control. An analysis is made of the elements of traditionally designed cam-actuated, mechanically coupled machinery, so that the operational functions and principal performance limitations of the separate machine elements may be identified. These are then used to define the requirements for independent actuators machinery, with a discussion of how this type of design approach is more suited to modern manufacturing trends. A distributed machine controller topology is developed which is a hybrid of hierarchical and pipeline control. An analysis is made, with the aid of dynamic simulation modelling, which confirms the suitability of the controller for flexible machinery control. The simulations include complex models of multiple independent actuators systems, which enable product flow and failure analyses to be performed. An analysis is made of high performance brushless d.c. servomotors and their suitability for actuating machine motions is assessed. Procedures are developed for the selection of brushless servomotors for intermittent machine motions. An experimental rig is described which has enabled the actuation and control methods developed to be implemented. With reference to this, an evaluation is made of the suitability of the machine design method and a discussion is given of the developments which are necessary for operational independent actuators machinery to be attained.

Product innovation in a new technology based firm

This thesis examines the "state of the art" of product innovation in new technology In the UK. The roles in innovation attributed to small and large firms are examined. Growing attention is being focused upon the small firm sector as a seedbed for Innovation and government policy has been changing to encourage the entrepreneurial new technology based firm (NTBF). The novel perspective of this research results from working in such a firm. It provides a longitudinal study of the management of innovation in conjunction with the corporate strategy of the firm. Given that the researcher was a participant and observer in the firm studied, the research is akin to action research in methodology but is better described as grounded theory. Theoretical concepts are drawn from the prescriptive literature describing corporate strategy, and from the empirical literature which has evaluated new product success and failure. Models of the Innovation process are discussed and appropriate strategies and reasons for product innovation failure in NTBFs are described. The strategy, structure and new product development progress of the company are examined, using both the researcher's observations and company documents. This provides information on the methods and practices adopted for product innovation in a NTBF. The thesis analyses the performance of the firm In terms of product innovation. The models and strategies derived from the literature are then tested in the light of the experience of the company. Conclusions are drawn regarding strategies for innovation in NTBFs and about the innovation process in general. The importance of a NTBF adopting a synergistic strategy is shown. Links are established between the existence of synergy in the strategy and coupling in the management of innovation. Innovation is shown to be a laterally interdisciplinary exercise and therefore the "pipeline model" Is criticised. Finally a set of guidelines Is produced for the managers of NTBFs.

Optimization of protein crystallization:the OptiCryst project

Protein crystallization has gained a new strategic and commercial relevance in the postgenomic era due to its pivotal role in structural genomics. Producing high quality crystals has always been a bottleneck to efficient structure determination, and this problem is becoming increasingly acute. This is especially true for challenging, therapeutically important proteins that typically do not form suitable crystals. The OptiCryst consortium has focused on relieving this bottleneck by making a concerted effort to improve the crystallization techniques usually employed, designing new crystallization tools, and applying such developments to the optimization of target protein crystals. In particular, the focus has been on the novel application of dual polarization interferometry (DPI) to detect suitable nucleation; the application of in situ dynamic light scattering (DLS) to monitor and analyze the process of crystallization; the use of UV-fluorescence to differentiate protein crystals from salt; the design of novel nucleants and seeding technologies; and the development of kits for capillary counterdiffusion and crystal growth in gels. The consortium collectively handled 60 new target proteins that had not been crystallized previously. From these, we generated 39 crystals with improved diffraction properties. Fourteen of these 39 were only obtainable using OptiCryst methods. For the remaining 25, OptiCryst methods were used in combination with standard crystallization techniques. Eighteen structures have already been solved (30% success rate), with several more in the pipeline.

Application of genomics, proteomics and metabolomics in drug discovery, development and clinic

Genomics, proteomics and metabolomics are three areas that are routinely applied throughout the drug-development process as well as after a product enters the market. This review discusses all three 'omics, reporting on the key applications, techniques, recent advances and expectations of each. Genomics, mainly through the use of novel and next-generation sequencing techniques, has advanced areas of drug discovery and development through the comparative assessment of normal and diseased-state tissues, transcription and/or expression profiling, side-effect profiling, pharmacogenomics and the identification of biomarkers. Proteomics, through techniques including isotope coded affinity tags, stable isotopic labeling by amino acids in cell culture, isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification, multidirectional protein identification technology, activity-based probes, protein/peptide arrays, phage displays and two-hybrid systems is utilized in multiple areas through the drug development pipeline including target and lead identification, compound optimization, throughout the clinical trials process and after market analysis. Metabolomics, although the most recent and least developed of the three 'omics considered in this review, provides a significant contribution to drug development through systems biology approaches. Already implemented to some degree in the drug-discovery industry and used in applications spanning target identification through to toxicological analysis, metabolic network understanding is essential in generating future discoveries.

Experimenting with supply chain learning (SCL):supplier diversity and ethnic minority businesses

This paper reports on an innovative UK-based ‘Supply Chain Learning’ (SCL) initiative to encourage the corporate sector to consider supplier diversity in respect of ethnic minority businesses. This follows academic and policy interest in programmes to empower ethnic minority enterprises to achieve breakout to mainstream markets and business growth. The first phase of the initiative, entitled Supplier Development East Midlands (SDEM) is examined. By adopting an inter-organisational action learning approach, some of the key attributes of the programme are delineated, focusing on the recurrent action-reflection cycle taking place in a learning group comprising SDEM, LPOs (Large Purchasing Organisations) and small EMSs (Ethnic Minority Suppliers).

Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector

Guest editorial Ali Emrouznejad is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston Business School in Birmingham, UK. His areas of research interest include performance measurement and management, efficiency and productivity analysis as well as data mining. He has published widely in various international journals. He is an Associate Editor of IMA Journal of Management Mathematics and Guest Editor to several special issues of journals including Journal of Operational Research Society, Annals of Operations Research, Journal of Medical Systems, and International Journal of Energy Management Sector. He is in the editorial board of several international journals and co-founder of Performance Improvement Management Software. William Ho is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston University Business School. Before joining Aston in 2005, he had worked as a Research Associate in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His research interests include supply chain management, production and operations management, and operations research. He has published extensively in various international journals like Computers & Operations Research, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, European Journal of Operational Research, Expert Systems with Applications, International Journal of Production Economics, International Journal of Production Research, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, and so on. His first authored book was published in 2006. He is an Editorial Board member of the International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology and an Associate Editor of the OR Insight Journal. Currently, he is a Scholar of the Advanced Institute of Management Research. Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector This special issue aims to focus on holistic, applied research on performance measurement in energy sector management and for publication of relevant applied research to bridge the gap between industry and academia. After a rigorous refereeing process, seven papers were included in this special issue. The volume opens with five data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based papers. Wu et al. apply the DEA-based Malmquist index to evaluate the changes in relative efficiency and the total factor productivity of coal-fired electricity generation of 30 Chinese administrative regions from 1999 to 2007. Factors considered in the model include fuel consumption, labor, capital, sulphur dioxide emissions, and electricity generated. The authors reveal that the east provinces were relatively and technically more efficient, whereas the west provinces had the highest growth rate in the period studied. Ioannis E. Tsolas applies the DEA approach to assess the performance of Greek fossil fuel-fired power stations taking undesirable outputs into consideration, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. In addition, the bootstrapping approach is deployed to address the uncertainty surrounding DEA point estimates, and provide bias-corrected estimations and confidence intervals for the point estimates. The author revealed from the sample that the non-lignite-fired stations are on an average more efficient than the lignite-fired stations. Maethee Mekaroonreung and Andrew L. Johnson compare the relative performance of three DEA-based measures, which estimate production frontiers and evaluate the relative efficiency of 113 US petroleum refineries while considering undesirable outputs. Three inputs (capital, energy consumption, and crude oil consumption), two desirable outputs (gasoline and distillate generation), and an undesirable output (toxic release) are considered in the DEA models. The authors discover that refineries in the Rocky Mountain region performed the best, and about 60 percent of oil refineries in the sample could improve their efficiencies further. H. Omrani, A. Azadeh, S. F. Ghaderi, and S. Abdollahzadeh presented an integrated approach, combining DEA, corrected ordinary least squares (COLS), and principal component analysis (PCA) methods, to calculate the relative efficiency scores of 26 Iranian electricity distribution units from 2003 to 2006. Specifically, both DEA and COLS are used to check three internal consistency conditions, whereas PCA is used to verify and validate the final ranking results of either DEA (consistency) or DEA-COLS (non-consistency). Three inputs (network length, transformer capacity, and number of employees) and two outputs (number of customers and total electricity sales) are considered in the model. Virendra Ajodhia applied three DEA-based models to evaluate the relative performance of 20 electricity distribution firms from the UK and the Netherlands. The first model is a traditional DEA model for analyzing cost-only efficiency. The second model includes (inverse) quality by modelling total customer minutes lost as an input data. The third model is based on the idea of using total social costs, including the firm’s private costs and the interruption costs incurred by consumers, as an input. Both energy-delivered and number of consumers are treated as the outputs in the models. After five DEA papers, Stelios Grafakos, Alexandros Flamos, Vlasis Oikonomou, and D. Zevgolis presented a multiple criteria analysis weighting approach to evaluate the energy and climate policy. The proposed approach is akin to the analytic hierarchy process, which consists of pairwise comparisons, consistency verification, and criteria prioritization. In the approach, stakeholders and experts in the energy policy field are incorporated in the evaluation process by providing an interactive mean with verbal, numerical, and visual representation of their preferences. A total of 14 evaluation criteria were considered and classified into four objectives, such as climate change mitigation, energy effectiveness, socioeconomic, and competitiveness and technology. Finally, Borge Hess applied the stochastic frontier analysis approach to analyze the impact of various business strategies, including acquisition, holding structures, and joint ventures, on a firm’s efficiency within a sample of 47 natural gas transmission pipelines in the USA from 1996 to 2005. The author finds that there were no significant changes in the firm’s efficiency by an acquisition, and there is a weak evidence for efficiency improvements caused by the new shareholder. Besides, the author discovers that parent companies appear not to influence a subsidiary’s efficiency positively. In addition, the analysis shows a negative impact of a joint venture on technical efficiency of the pipeline company. To conclude, we are grateful to all the authors for their contribution, and all the reviewers for their constructive comments, which made this special issue possible. We hope that this issue would contribute significantly to performance improvement of the energy sector.

Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map

The main purpose of the study is to develop an integrated framework for managing project risks by analyzing risk across project, work package and activity levels, and developing responses. Design/methodology/approach: The study first reviews the literature of various contemporary risk management frameworks in order to identify gaps in project risk management knowledge. Then it develops a conceptual risk management framework using combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and risk map for managing project risks. The proposed framework has then been applied to a 1500 km oil pipeline construction project in India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The concerned project stakeholders were involved through focus group discussions for applying the proposed risk management framework in the project under study. Findings: The combined AHP and risk map approach is very effective to manage project risks across project, work package and activity levels. The risk factors in project level are caused because of external forces such as business environment (e.g. customers, competitors, technological development, politics, socioeconomic environment). The risk factors in work package and activity levels are operational in nature and created due to internal causes such as lack of material and labor productivity, implementation issues, team ineffectiveness, etc. Practical implications: The suggested model can be applied to any complex project and helps manage risk throughout the project life cycle. Originality/value: Both business and operational risks constitute project risks. In one hand, the conventional project risk management frameworks emphasize on managing business risks and often ignore operational risks. On the other hand, the studies that deal with operational risk often do not link them with business risks. However, they need to be addressed in an integrated way as there are a few risks that affect only the specific level. Hence, this study bridges the gaps. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combining algorithms to predict bacterial protein sub-cellular location:parallel versus concurrent implementations

We describe a novel and potentially important tool for candidate subunit vaccine selection through in silico reverse-vaccinology. A set of Bayesian networks able to make individual predictions for specific subcellular locations is implemented in three pipelines with different architectures: a parallel implementation with a confidence level-based decision engine and two serial implementations with a hierarchical decision structure, one initially rooted by prediction between membrane types and another rooted by soluble versus membrane prediction. The parallel pipeline outperformed the serial pipeline, but took twice as long to execute. The soluble-rooted serial pipeline outperformed the membrane-rooted predictor. Assessment using genomic test sets was more equivocal, as many more predictions are made by the parallel pipeline, yet the serial pipeline identifies 22 more of the 74 proteins of known location.

Analytic hierarchy process analyses risk of operating cross-country petroleum pipelines in India

The existing method of pipeline health monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, is both time-wasting and expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been presented. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests an efficient design and operation philosophy, construction methodology, and logical insurance plans. The risk-based model uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to identify the factors that influence failure on specific segments and to analyze their effects by determining probability of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis. From this, the effect of a failure caused by each risk factor can be established in terms of cost, and the cumulative effect of failure is determined through probability analysis. The technique does not totally eliminate subjectivity, but it is an improvement over the existing inspection method.

An integrated assessment model for cross-country pipelines

The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.