Experimental analysis of the influence of pest management practice on the efficacy of an endemic arthropod natural enemy complex of the diamondback moth.

Maximizing the contribution of endemic natural enemies to integrated pest management (IPM) programs requires a detailed knowledge of their interactions with the target pest. This experimental field study evaluated the impact of the endemic natural enemy complex of Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) on pest populations in commercial cabbage crops in southeastern Queensland, Australia. Management data were used to score pest management practices at experimental sites on independent Brassica farms practicing a range of pest management strategies, and mechanical methods of natural enemy exclusion were used to assess the impact of natural enemies on introduced cohorts of P. xylostella at each site. Natural enemy impact was greatest at sites adopting IPM and least at sites practicing conventional pest management strategies. At IPM sites, the contribution of natural enemies to P. xylostella mortality permitted the cultivation of marketable crops with no yield loss but with a substantial reduction in insecticide inputs. Three species of larval parasitoids (Diadegma semiclausum Hellen [Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae], Apanteles ippeus Nixon [Hymenoptera: Braconidae], and Oomyzus sokolowskii Kurdjumov [Hymenoptera: Eulophidae]) and one species of pupal parasitoid Diadromus collaris Gravenhorst (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) attacked immature P. xylostella. The most abundant groups of predatory arthropods caught in pitfall traps were Araneae (Lycosidae) > Coleoptera (Carabidae, Coccinelidae, Staphylinidae) > Neuroptera (Chrysopidae) > Formicidae, whereas on crop foliage Araneae (Clubionidae, Oxyopidae) > Coleoptera (Coccinelidae) > Neuroptera (Chrysopidae) were most common. The abundance and diversity of natural enemies was greatest at sites that adopted IPM, correlating greater P. xylostella mortality at these sites. The efficacy of the natural enemy complex to pest mortality under different pest management regimes and appropriate strategies to optimize this important natural resource are discussed.

Ross River virus disease in Australia, 1886-1998, with analysis of risk factors associated with outbreaks

Ross River virus (RE) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand human and environmental factors driving such events, 57 historical reports oil RR Outbreaks between 1896 and 1998 were examined collectively. The magnitude, regularity, seasonality, and locality of outbreaks were found to be wide ranging; however, analysis of climatic and tidal data highlighted that environmental conditions let differently ill tropical, arid, and temperate regions. Overall, rainfall seems to be the single most important risk factor, with over 90% of major outbreak locations receiving higher than average rainfall in preceding mouths. Many temperatures were close to average, particularly in tropical populations; however, in arid regions, below average maximum temperatures predominated, and ill southeast temperate regions, above average minimum temperatures predominated. High spring tides preceded coastal Outbreaks, both in the presence and absence of rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index and Lit Nina episodes suggest they may be useful predictive tools, but only ill southeast temperate regions. Such heterogeneity predisposing outbreaks supports the notion that there are different RE epidemiologies throughout Australia but also Suggests that generic parameters for the prediction and control of outbreaks are of limited use at a local level.

Australian data and meta-analysis lend support for alpha-synuclein (NACP-Rep1) as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease

It remains unclear whether genetic variants in SNCA (the alpha-synuclein gene) alter risk for sporadic Parkinson's disease (PD). The polymorphic mixed sequence repeat (NACP-Rep I) in the promoter region of SNCA has been previously examined as a potential susceptibility factor for PD with conflicting results. We report genotype and allele distributions at this locus from 369 PD cases and 370 control subjects of European Australian ancestry, with alleles designated as -1, 0, +1, +2, and +3 as previously described. Allele frequencies designated (0) were less common in Australian cases compared to controls (OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.62-1.03). Combined analysis including all previously published ancestral European Rep1 data yielded a highly significant association between the 0 allele and a reduced risk for PD (OR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.89, p = 0.0001). Further study must now proceed to examine in detail this interesting and biologically plausible genetic association. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

Multidimensional analysis of perceived risk in commercial air travel

This study attempts to assess the role of perceived risk in air passenger behaviour. A survey of 889 respondents is used to investigate a multidimensional concept of perceived risk and to analyse the differences between socio-demographic characteristics regarding passengers' risk assessment. The results indicate that financial risk and temporal risk are the most important in the context of commercial air travel. All perceived risk dimensions differ according gender, age, cultural background, income, previous experience, and reason for travelling. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insect pest control research : the analysis of historical trends with special reference to scientometric analysis

The thesis investigates the value of quantitative analyses for historical studies of science through an examination of research trends in insect pest control, or economic entomology. Reviews are made of quantitative studies of science, and historical studies of pest control. The methodological strengths and weaknesses of bibliometric techniques are examined in a special chapter; techniques examined include productivity studies such as paper counts, and relational techniques such as co-citation and co-word analysis. Insect pest control is described. This includes a discussion of the socio-economic basis of the concept of `pest'; a series of classifications of pest control techniques are provided and analysed with respect to their utility for scientometric studies. The chemical and biological approaches to control are discussed as scientific and technological paradigms. Three case studies of research trends in economic entomology are provided. First a scientometric analysis of samples of chemical control and biological control papers; providing quantitative data on institutional, financial, national, and journal structures associated with pest control research fields. Second, a content analysis of a core journal, the Journal of Economic Entomology, over a period of 1910-1985; this identifies the main research innovations and trends, in particular the changing balance between chemical and biological control. Third, an analysis of historical research trends in insecticide research; this shows the rise, maturity and decline of research of many groups of compounds. These are supplemented by a collection of seven papers on scientometric studies of pest control and quantitative techniques for analysing science.

Reducing the risk of sexually transmitted infections in genitourinary medicine clinic patients:A systematic review and meta-analysis of behavioural interventions

Objectives: Are behavioural interventions effective in reducing the rate of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinic patients? Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of published articles. Data sources: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychINFO, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, Cochrane Library Controlled Clinical Trials Register, National Research Register (1966 to January 2004). Review methods: Randomised controlled trials of behavioural interventions in sexual health clinic patients were included if they reported change to STI rates or self reported sexual behaviour. Trial quality was assessed using the Jadad score and results pooled using random effects meta-analyses where outcomes were consistent across studies. Results: 14 trials were included; 12 based in the United States. Experimental interventions were heterogeneous and most control interventions were more structured than typical UK care. Eight trials reported data on laboratory confirmed infections, of which four observed a greater reduction in their intervention groups (in two cases this result was statistically significant, p<0.05). Seven trials reported consistent condom use, of which six observed a greater increase among their intervention subjects. Results for other measures of sexual behaviour were inconsistent. Success in reducing STIs was related to trial quality, use of social cognition models, and formative research in the target population. However, effectiveness was not related to intervention format or length. Conclusions: While results were heterogeneous, several trials observed reductions in STI rates. The most effective interventions were developed through extensive formative research. These findings should encourage further research in the United Kingdom where new approaches to preventing STIs are urgently required.

Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

Understanding supply chain disruption risk with the aid of social networks and information flows analysis

Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) has become a popular area of research and study in recent years. This can be highlighted by the number of peer reviewed articles that have appeared in academic literature. This coupled with the realisation by companies that SCRM strategies are required to mitigate the risks that they face, makes for challenging research questions in the field of risk management. The challenge that companies face today is not only to identify the types of risks that they face, but also to assess the indicators of risk that face them. This will allow them to mitigate that risk before any disruption to the supply chain occurs. The use of social network theory can aid in the identification of disruption risk. This thesis proposes the combination of social networks, behavioural risk indicators and information management, to uniquely identify disruption risk. The propositions that were developed from the literature review and exploratory case study in the aerospace OEM, in this thesis are:- By improving information flows, through the use of social networks, we can identify supply chain disruption risk. - The management of information to identify supply chain disruption risk can be explored using push and pull concepts. The propositions were further explored through four focus group sessions, two within the OEM and two within an academic setting. The literature review conducted by the researcher did not find any studies that have evaluated supply chain disruption risk management in terms of social network analysis or information management studies. The evaluation of SCRM using these methods is thought to be a unique way of understanding the issues in SCRM that practitioners face today in the aerospace industry.