Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Perfil dos servidores da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo com empréstimo consignado

O crédito consignado é uma modalidade de empréstimo cujo valor da parcela incide sobre o salário do devedor. Com alto índice de adesão nos últimos anos, é o meio de acesso ao crédito mais comum entre os servidores públicos, pelas baixas taxas de juros, entre outros atrativos, o que contribui para expor a risco seus vencimentos com dívidas. Buscando atender ao objetivo principal de identificar se características do perfil demográfico dos servidores ativos da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES) estão relacionadas ao comprometimento de seus rendimentos com empréstimos consignados, foi realizada uma pesquisa de abordagem quantitativa, utilizando dados cadastrais e financeiros do ano de 2013 destes servidores, obtidos no banco de dados institucional e através da aplicação de questionários, dos quais totalizaram 210 tidos como válidos. Todas as informações foram tratadas por meio de recursos estatísticos, como análise descritiva dos dados, tabelas de contingências com interpretação do valor do qui-quadrado e regressão logística. Os resultados indicam que as variáveis escolaridade, renda, número de dependentes e gênero estão associadas ao comprometimento da renda com empréstimos consignados e que os homens, apesar de aparecerem em maior número entre os que aderem a esse tipo de empréstimo, comprometem menos seus rendimentos com ele, quando comparados às mulheres. Indivíduos do gênero feminino, com menor nível de escolaridade e renda mais baixa foram os mais propensos a adquirirem empréstimos descontados em folha. Por fim, apesar das análises apontarem que apenas a ausência de educação financeira não explica o alto comprometimento da renda com consignado, muitos dos entrevistados afirmaram não dominar o tema e se sentirem despreparados para administrarem suas finanças pessoais. Nesse sentido, o plano de intervenção proposto no objetivo e descrito ao final da pesquisa, sugere que a instituição invista na educação financeira dos servidores; preste apoio psicológico aos sobreendividados e proíba o estímulo ao consumo no ambiente de trabalho.

Geographical, temporal and environmental determinants of bryophyte species richness in the Macaronesian Islands

Copyright: © 2014 Aranda et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Quantification of endocrine disruptors and pesticides in water by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Method validation using weighted linear regression schemes

Amulti-residue methodology based on a solid phase extraction followed by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry was developed for trace analysis of 32 compounds in water matrices, including estrogens and several pesticides from different chemical families, some of them with endocrine disrupting properties. Matrix standard calibration solutions were prepared by adding known amounts of the analytes to a residue-free sample to compensate matrix-induced chromatographic response enhancement observed for certain pesticides. Validation was done mainly according to the International Conference on Harmonisation recommendations, as well as some European and American validation guidelines with specifications for pesticides analysis and/or GC–MS methodology. As the assumption of homoscedasticity was not met for analytical data, weighted least squares linear regression procedure was applied as a simple and effective way to counteract the greater influence of the greater concentrations on the fitted regression line, improving accuracy at the lower end of the calibration curve. The method was considered validated for 31 compounds after consistent evaluation of the key analytical parameters: specificity, linearity, limit of detection and quantification, range, precision, accuracy, extraction efficiency, stability and robustness.

Analyzing Multiple Outcomes: Is it Really Worth the use of Multivariate Linear Regression?

In health related research it is common to have multiple outcomes of interest in a single study. These outcomes are often analysed separately, ignoring the correlation between them. One would expect that a multivariate approach would be a more efficient alternative to individual analyses of each outcome. Surprisingly, this is not always the case. In this article we discuss different settings of linear models and compare the multivariate and univariate approaches. We show that for linear regression models, the estimates of the regression parameters associated with covariates that are shared across the outcomes are the same for the multivariate and univariate models while for outcome-specific covariates the multivariate model performs better in terms of efficiency.

CANINE VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS CASE INVESTIGATION IN THE JACARE REGION OF NITEROI, RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

SUMMARY American visceral leishmaniasis is a vector-borne zoonosis in expansion in Brazil. Dogs are the main urban reservoir. Departing from a case of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) in Jacaré, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro State, an epidemiological canine and entomological study was performed to assess the extension of the disease at the location. Sample was collected around the case and the dogs identified by serological tests (rapid double platform immunochromatographic exams, immunoenzymatic assay/ELISA, indirect immunofluorescence/IFAT). The parasitological diagnosis was performed in animals positive in at least one of these tests. The entomological study was carried out by using light traps and manual collection. The associations between canine variables and outcome (ELISA and IFAT reagents) were assessed by the chi-square test and adjusted by multivariate logistic regression for those associations with p < 0.1 in the bivariate analysis. Seventeen cases of CVL were detected among 110 evaluated dogs (prevalence of 15.5%). Presence of ectoparasites (OR 6.5; 95% CI 1.1-37.4), animals with clinical signs (OR 9.5; 95% CI 1.2-76.6), and previous cases of CVL in the same house (OR 17.9; 95% CI 2.2-147.1) were associated with the outcome. Lutzomyia longipalpiswas not detected. Our results are indicative of an ongoing transmission in the area.

Familial Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Is Associated With More Complications After Endovascular Aneurysm Repair

OBJECTIVE: A familial predisposition to abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is present in approximately one-fifth of patients. Nevertheless, the clinical implications of a positive family history are not known. We investigated the risk of aneurysm-related complications after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for patients with and without a positive family history of AAA. METHODS: Patients treated with EVAR for intact AAAs in the Erasmus University Medical Center between 2000 and 2012 were included in the study. Family history was obtained by written questionnaire. Familial AAA (fAAA) was defined as patients having at least one first-degree relative affected with aortic aneurysm. The remaining patients were considered sporadic AAA. Cardiovascular risk factors, aneurysm morphology (aneurysm neck, aneurysm sac, and iliac measurements), and follow-up were obtained prospectively. The primary end point was complications after EVAR, a composite of endoleaks, need for secondary interventions, aneurysm sac growth, acute limb ischemia, and postimplantation rupture. Secondary end points were specific components of the primary end point (presence of endoleak, need for secondary intervention, and aneurysm sac growth), aneurysm neck growth, and overall survival. Kaplan-Meier estimates for the primary end point were calculated and compared using log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test of equality. A Cox-regression model was used to calculate the independent risk of complications associated with fAAA. RESULTS: A total of 255 patients were included in the study (88.6% men; age 72 ± 7 years, median follow-up 3.3 years; interquartile range, 2.2-6.1). A total of 51 patients (20.0%) were classified as fAAA. Patients with fAAA were younger (69 vs 72 years; P = .015) and were less likely to have ever smoked (58.8% vs 73.5%; P = .039). Preoperative aneurysm morphology was similar in both groups. Patients with fAAA had significantly more complications after EVAR (35.3% vs 19.1%; P = .013), with a twofold increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-3.7). Secondary interventions (39.2% vs 20.1%; P = .004) and aneurysm sac growth (20.8% vs 9.5%; P = .030) were the most important elements accounting for the difference. Furthermore, a trend toward more type I endoleaks during follow-up was observed (15.6% vs 7.4%; P = .063) and no difference in overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: The current study shows that patients with a familial form of AAA develop more aneurysm-related complications after EVAR, despite similar AAA morphology at baseline. These findings suggest that patients with fAAA form a specific subpopulation and create awareness for a possible increase in the risk of complications after EVAR.

Psicopatologia obsessivo-compulsiva na distonia focal primária : aspectos neuropsiquiátricos de uma doença do movimento

RESUMO: pela contracção involuntária de grupos musculares de extensão variável, originando movimentos involuntários e posturas anómalas, por vezes dolorosas. O tratamento convencional consiste em injecções localizadas de toxina botulínica, podendo, em casos refractários, estar indicado o tratamento por estimulação cerebral profunda. A neurobiologia da distonia focal primária permanece incompletamente compreendida. Os estudos de neuro-imagem estrutural e funcional revelam alterações subtis da anatomia e funcionamento do estriado e das vias cortico-basais, com destaque para o aumento do volume, da actividade metabólica e da neuroplasticidade do putamen e de áreas corticais motoras, pré-motoras e sensitivas. O conjunto destas alterações aponta para uma disrupção da regulação inibitória de programas motores automáticos sustentados pelo estriado e pelas vias ortico-subcorticais. Nos últimos anos tem crescido o interesse pelas manifestações psiquiátricas e cognitivas da distonia (estas últimas muito pouco estudadas). Tem despertado particular interesse a possível associação entre distonia focal primária e perturbação obsessivo-compulsiva (POC), cuja neurobiologia parece notavelmente sobreponível à da distonia primária. Com efeito, os estudos de neuro-imagem estrutural e funcional na POC revelam consistentemente aumento do volume e actividade do estriado e do córtex órbito-frontal, apontando mais uma vez para uma disfunção do controlo inibitório, no estriado, de programas comportamentais e cognitivos automáticos. Objectivos: 1. Explorar a prevalência e intensidade de psicopatologia em geral, e de psicopatologia obsessivo-compulsiva em particular, numa amostra de indivíduos com distonia focal primária; 2. Explorar a ocorrência, natureza e intensidade de alterações do funcionamento cognitivo numa amostra de indivíduos com distonia focal primária; 3. Investigar a associação entre a gravidade da distonia focal, a intensidade da psicopatologia, e a intensidade das alterações cognitivas. Metodologia: Estudo de tipo transversal, caso-controlo, observacional e descritivo, com objectivos puramente exploratórios. Casos: 45 indivíduos com distonia focal primária (15 casos de blefaroespasmo, 15 de cãibra do escrivão, 15 de distonia cervical espasmódica), recrutados através da Associação Portuguesa de Distonia. Critérios de inclusão: idade = 18; distonia focal primária pura (excluindo casos de distonia psicogénica possível ou provável de acordo com os critérios de Fahn e Williams); Metabolismo do cobre e Ressonância Magnética Nuclear sem alterações. Controlos doentes: 46 casos consecutivos recrutados a partir da consulta externa do Hospital Egas Moniz: 15 doentes com espasmo hemifacial, 14 com espondilartropatia cervical, 17 com síndrome do canal cárpico. Controlos saudáveis: 30 voluntários. Critérios de exclusão para todos os grupos: Mini-Mental State Examination patológico, tratamento actual com anti-colinérgicos, antipsicóticos, inibidores selectivos da recaptação da serotonina, antidepressivos tri- ou tetracíclicos. Avaliação: Avaliação neurológica: história e exame médico e neurológico completos. Cotação da gravidade da distonia com a Unified Dystonia Rating Scale. Avaliação psicopatológica: Symptom Check-List-90-Revised; entrevista psiquiátrica de 60 minutos incluindo a Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), versão 4.4 (validada em Português), complementada com os módulos da MINI Plus versão 5.0.0 para depressão ao longo da vida e dependência/ abuso do álcool e outras substâncias ao longo da vida; Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Symptom Checklist e a Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS). Avaliação neuropsicológica: Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST; flexibilidade cognitiva); Teste de Stroop (inibição de resposta); Block Assembly Test (capacidade visuo-construtiva); Teste de Retenção Visual de Benton (memória de trabalho visuo-espacial). Análise estatística:os dados foram analisados com a aplicação informática SPSS for Windows, versão 13. Para a comparação de proporções utilizaram-se o teste do Chi-quadrado e o teste de Fisher. Para a comparação de variáveis quantitativas entre dois grupos utilizou-se o teste t de Student ou o teste U de Mann-Whitney (teste de Wilcoxon no caso de amostras emparelhadas). Para comparações de médias entre três grupos recorreu-se à Análise de Variância a um factor (variáveis de intervalo e de rácio), ou ao teste de Kruskal-Wallis (variáveis ordinais). Para o estudo da associação entre variáveis foram utilizados os coeficientes de correlação de Pearson ou de Spearman, a análise de correlações canónicas, a análise de trajectórias e a regressão logística. Adoptou-se um Alpha de 0.05. Resultados: Os doentes com distonia focal primária apresentaram uma pontuação média na Y- -BOCS significativamente superior à dos dois grupos de controlo. Em 24.4% dos doentes com distonia a pontuação na Y-BOCS foi superior a 16. Estes doentes eram predominantemente mulheres, tinham uma maior duração média da doença e referiam predominantemente sintomas obsessivo-compulsivos (SOC) de contaminação e lavagem. Os dois grupos com doença crónica apresentaram pontuações médias superiores às dos indivíduos saudáveis nas escalas de ansiedade, somatização e psicopatologia geral. Os doentes com distonia tratados com toxina botulínica apresentaram pontuações inferiores às dos doentes não tratados nas escalas de ansiedade generalizada, fobia, somatização e depressão, mas não na Y-BOCS. Sessenta por cento dos doentes com distonia apresentavam pelo menos um diagnóstico psiquiátrico actual ou pregresso. O risco de apresentar um diagnóstico psiquiátrico actual era menor nos doentes tratados com toxina botulínica, aumentando com a gravidade da doença. A prevalência de POC foi 8,3% e a de depressão major 37,7%. No WCST e na Prova de Benton, os doentes com distonia focal primária demonstraram um desempenho inferior ao de ambos os grupos de controlo, cometendo sobretudo erros perseverativos. Os doentes com distonia e pontuação na Y-BOCS > 16 cometeram mais erros e respostas perseverativas no WCST do que os restantes doentes com distonia. As análises de correlações e de trajectórias revelaram que nos doentes com distonia a gravidade da distonia foi, juntamente com a idade e a escolaridade, o factor que mais interagiu com o desempenho cognitivo. Discussão: o nosso estudo é o primeiro a descrever, nos mesmos doentes com distonia focal primária, SOC significativos e alterações cognitivas. Os nossos resultados confirmam a hipótese de uma associação clínica específica entre distonia focal primária e psicopatologia obsessivo-compulsiva. Confirmam igualmente que a distonia focal primária está associada a um maior risco de desenvolver morbilidade psiquiátrica ansiosa e depressiva. O tratamento com toxina botulínica reduz este risco, mas não influencia os SOC. Entre os doentes com distonia, os que têm SOC significativos poderão diconstituir um grupo particular com maior duração da doença (mas não uma maior gravidade), predomínio do sexo feminino e predomínio de SOC de contaminação e limpeza. Em termos cognitivos, os indivíduos com distonia focal primária apresentam défices significativos de flexibilidade cognitiva (particularmente acentuados nos doentes com SOC significativos) e de memória de trabalho visuo-espacial. Estes últimos devem-se essencialmente a um défice executivo e não a uma incapacidade visuo-construtiva ou visuo-perceptiva. A disfunção cognitiva não é explicável pela psicopatologia depressiva nem pela incapacidade motora, já que os controlos com doença periférica crónica tiveram um desempenho superior ao dos doentes com distonia. No seu conjunto os nossos resultados sugerem que os SOC que ocorrem na distonia focal primária constituem uma das manifestações clínicas da neurobiologia desta doença do movimento. O predomínio de sintomas relacionados com higiene e o perfil disexecutivo de alterações cognitivas–perseveração e dificuldades executivas de memória de trabalho visuo-espacial – apontam para a via cortico-basal dorso-lateral e para as áreas corticais que lhe estão associadas como estando implicadas na tripla associação entre sintomas motores, obsessivo-compulsivos e cognitivos. Conclusões: A distonia focal primária é um síndrome neuropsiquiátrico complexo com importantes manifestações não motoras, nomeadamente compromisso cognitivo do tipo disexecutivo e sintomas obsessivo-compulsivos. Clinicamente estas manifestações representam necessidades de tratamento que vão muito para além da simples incapacidade motora, devendo ser activamente exploradas e tratadas.-------------- ABSTRACT: Introduction: primary focal dystonia is an idiopathic movement disorder that manifests as involuntary, sustained contraction of muscular groups, leading to abnormal and often painful postures of the affected body part. Treatment is symptomatic, usually with local intramuscular injections of botulinum toxin. The neurobiology of primary focal dystonia remains unclear. Structural and functional neuroimaging studies have revealed subtle changes in striatal and cortical-basal pathway anatomy and function. The most consistent findings involve increased volume and metabolic activity of the putamen and of motor, pre-motor and somato-sensitive cortical areas. As a whole, these changes have been interpreted as reflecting a failure of striatal inhibitory control over automatic motor programs sustained by cortical-basal pathways. The last years have witnessed an increasing interest for the possible non-motor – mainly psychiatric and cognitive – manifestations of primary focal dystonia. The possible association of primary focal dystonia with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) has raised particular interest. The neurobiology of the two disorders has indeed remarkable similarities: structural and functional neuroimaging studies in OCD have revealed increased volume and metabolic activity of the striatum and orbital-frontal cortex, again pointing to a disruption of inhibitory control of automatic cognitive and behavioural programs by the striatum. Objectives: 1. To explore the prevalence and severity of psychopathology – with a special emphasis on obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS) – in a sample of patients with primary focal dystonia;2. To explore the nature and severity of possible cognitive dysfunction in a sample of patients with primary focal dystonia; 3. To explore the possible association between dystonia severity, psychiatric symptom severity, and cognitive performance, in a sample of patients with primary focal dystonia. Methods: cross-sectional, case-control, descriptive study. Cases: forty-five consecutive, primary pure focal dystonia patients recruited from the Portuguese Dystonia Association case register (fifteen patients with blepharospasm, 15 with cervical dystonia and 15 with writer’s cramp). Inclusion criteria were: age = 18; primary pure focal, late-onset dystonia (excluding possible or probable psychogenic dystonia according to the Fahn & Williams criteria); normal copper metabolism and Magnetic Resonance Imaging. Diseased controls: forty-six consecutive subjects from our hospital case register (15 patients with hemi-facial spasm; 14 with cervical spondilarthropathy and cervical spinal root compression; 17 with carpal tunnel syndrome). Healthy controls were 30 volunteers.Exclusion criteria for all groups: Mini-Mental State Examination score below the validated cut-off for the Portuguese population (<23 for education between 1 and 11 years; <28 for education >11 years); use of anti-cholinergics, neuroleptics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, triciclic or tetraciclic antidepressants. Assessment: neurological assessment: complete medical and neurological history and physical examination; dystonia severity scoring with the Unified Dystonia Rating Scale. Psychiatric assessment:Symptom Check-List-90-Revised; 60 minute-long psychiatric interview, including Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), version 4.4 (validated Portuguese version), extended with the sections for life-time major depressive disorder and life-time alcohol and substance abuse disorder from MINI-Plus version 5.0.0; Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Symptom Checklist and Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS). Cognitive assessment: Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST; cognitive set-shifting ability); Stroop Test (response inhibition); Block Assembly Test(visual-constructive ability); Benton’s Visual Retention Test (visual-spatial working memory). Statistic analysis: Data were analyzed with SPSS for Windows version 13. Proportions were compared using Chi-Square test, or Fisher’s exact test when appropriate. Student’s t-test or Mann-Whitney’s U test (or Wilcoxon’s teste in the case of matched samples) were used for two-group comparisons. P-values were corrected for multiple comparisons. One-way ANOVA with Bonferroni post-hoc analysis (interval data), or the Kruskal-Wallis Test (ordinal data), were used for three-group comparisons. Associations were analysed with Pearson’s or Spearman’s correlation coefficients, canonical correlations, path analysis and logistic regression analysis. Alpha was set at 0.05. Results: Dystonia patients had higher Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Symptom scores than both control groups. 24.4% of primary dystonia patients had a Y-BOCS score > 16. These patients were predominantly women; they had longer disease duration, and showed a predominance of hygiene-related OCS. The two groups with chronic disease had higher anxiety, somatization and global psychopathology scores than healthy subjects. Primary dystonia patients undergoing treatment with botulinum toxin had lower anxiety, phobia, somatization and depression scores than their untreated counterparts, but similar Y-BOCS scores. Sixty percent of primary dystonia patients had at least one lifetime psychiatric diagnosis. The odds of having a currently active psychiatric diagnosis were lower in botulinum toxin treated patients, and increased with dystonia severity. The prevalence of OCD was 6.7%, and the lifetime prevalence of major depression was 37.7%. Primary dystonia patients had a lower performance than the two control groups in both the WCST and Benton’s Visual Retention Test, mainly due to an excess of perseveration errors. Primary dystonia patients with Y-BOCS score > 16 had much higher perseveration error and perseveration response scores than dystonia patients with Y-BOCS = 16. Correlation and path analysis showed that, in the primary dystonia group, dystonia severity, along with age and education, was the main factor influencing cognitive performance. Discussion: our study is the first description ever of concomitant significant OCS and cognitive impairment in primary dystonia patients. Our results confirm that primary dystonia is specifically associated with obsessive-compulsive psychopathology. They also confirm that primary focal dystonia patients are at a higher risk of developing anxious and depressive psychiatric morbidity. Treatment with botulinum toxin decreases this risk, but does not influence OCS. Primary focal dystonia patients with significant OCS may constitute a particular subgroup. They are predominantly women, with higher disease duration (but not severity) and a predominance of hygiene related OCS.In terms of cognitive performance, primary focal dystonia patients have significant deficits involving set-shifting ability and visual-spatial working memory. The latter result from an essentially executive deficit, rather than from a primary visual-constructive apraxia or perceptual deficit. Furthermore, cognitive flexibility difficulties were more prominent in the subset of primary dystonia patients with significant OCS. The cognitive dysfunction found in dystonia patients is not attributable to depressive psychopathology or motor disability, as their performance was significantly lower than that of similarly impaired diseased controls. Our results suggest that OCS in primary focal dystonia are a direct, primary manifestation of the motor disorder’s neurobiology. The predominance of hygiene-related symptoms and the disexecutive pattern of cognitive impairment – set-shifting and visual-spatial working memory deficits – suggest that the dorsal-lateral cortical-basal pathway may play a decisive role in the triple association of motor dysfunction, OCS and cognitive impairment. Conclusions: primary focal dystonia is a complex neuropsychiatric syndrome with significant non- -motor manifestations, namely cognitive executive deficits and obsessive-compulsive symptoms.Clinically, our results show that PFD patients may have needs for care that extend far beyond a merely motor disability and must be actively searched for and treated.

Evaluation of long term persistence of Diabetes Mellitus Type II treatment newly diagnosed patients in Lisbon and Tagus health administration region : a three year follow up study

RESUMO: Raional: A persistência à terapêutica é o tempo em qualquer antidiabético oral, desde o seu início até à descontinuação de todas as medicações ou até ao fim do período do estudo. Os objetivos deste estudo foi a análise da persistência à terapêutica no segundo e terceiro anos após início do tratamento em doentes adultos diagnosticados na região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo e determinar o efeito de determinadas variáveis na persistência a longo prazo. Métodos: Um estudo retrospetivo não interventivo foi desenhado com base nos dados a obter do SIARS (prescrições e aquisições na farmácia) e Pordata. A persistência foi quantificada como a percentagem de doentes que continuam a adquirir pelo menos um antidiabético oral ao segundo e terceiro anos após a compra da primeira receita. A associação entre a persistência e o segundo e terceiro anos com cada uma das co-variáveis foi aferido pelo teste qui-quadrado e os odd ratios foram calculados com recurso a um modelo de regressão logística. Resultados: A persistência à terapêutica obtida foi de 80% e 62% para o segundo e terceiro anos após início da terapêutica. Odd ratios para primeiro e segundo ano: número de grupos farmacoterapêuticos diferentes (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); idade (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); sexo (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); número de diferentes prescritores (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); instituição de prescrição (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relação com o médico (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) e custo médio mensal por grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusões: O valor da persistência à terapêutica no segundo ano é ligeiramente acima do que é mencionado na literatura e não existem dados para comparar os resultados do terceiro ano. Relativamente ao efeito das co-variáveis no segundo e terceiro anos após o início do tratamento, os resultados são sobreponíveis, sendo que o sexo não está associado à persistência ao terceiro ano.----------------------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Therapy persistence is the time on any antidiabetic medication, from initiation of therapy to discontinuation of all medications or the end of the study period. The aim of the study was to analyse the therapy persistence in the second and third years after treatment initiation in newly diagnosed adult patients in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region and to determine the effect of several co-variables in the long term persistence. Methods: A retrospective non-interventional study based on SIARS data (drug prescriptions and acquisitions) and Pordata was designed. Persistence was quantified as the percentage of patients that continued to purchase at least one type of antidiabetic at year 2 and 3 after the date of first prescription acquisition. Association between persistence at second and third years with each of the other co-variables were verified by using the Chi-Square test and odds ratio were calculated using a regression logistic model. Results: Therapy persistence obtained was 80% and 62% for the second and third years after treatment initiation. Odd ratios for second and third years: number of different pharmacotherapeutic groups (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); age (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); gender (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); number of different prescribers (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); institution of prescription (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relationship with the physician (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) and average cost per month and per pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusions: Second year therapy persistence value is slightly above of what is referenced in literature and no data was found to compare the third year value. Regarding the effect of the co-variables analysed at second and third years after treatment initiation, the results were overlapping with gender being not associated with persistence at the third year.

A priori ratemaking using bivariate poisson regression models

In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.

Portal vein embolization with N-butyl cyanoacrylate before partial hepatectomy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and underlying cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis.

PURPOSE: To describe the safety, complications, and liver regeneration associated with the left liver after embolization of the right portal vein (PV) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) developed in the setting of advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Forty patients (31 men, nine women; mean age, 62 years) with HCC underwent PV embolization over a 4-year period. Embolization was performed from a left PV percutaneous access with use of n-butyl cyanoacrylate (NBCA) mixed with iodized oil. Computed tomography (CT) volumetry was performed before and 1 month after PV embolization to measure the left lobe volume as well as the functional liver ratio defined by the ratio between the left lobe and the total liver volume minus tumoral volume. PV pressure and liver enzyme levels were compared before and 1 month after the procedure and complications were registered. Factors potentially affecting regeneration (age, sex, diabetes, chemoembolization, functional liver ratio before PV embolization, and Knodell histologic score) were evaluated by one-way and stepwise regression analysis. RESULTS: PV embolization could be achieved successfully in all cases. Two patients had partial PV thrombosis on the 1-month follow-up CT and two patients developed transient ascites after PV embolization. The left lobe volume increase was 41% +/- 32% after PV embolization and the functional liver ratio increased from 28% +/- 10% to 36% +/- 10% (P < .0001). Hypertrophy of the left lobe was greater in patients with a low functional liver ratio before PV embolization and those with an F3 fibrosis score. Other factors had no influence on left lobe regeneration. CONCLUSION: PV embolization with use of NBCA is feasible in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. Hypertrophy of the left lobe of the liver after PV embolization has a statistically significant correlation with lower functional liver ratio and lower degrees of fibrosis.

Vemurafenib in patients with BRAF(V600) mutation-positive melanoma with symptomatic brain metastases: final results of an open-label pilot study.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Brain metastases are frequent in patients with metastatic melanoma, indicating poor prognosis. We investigated the BRAF kinase inhibitor vemurafenib in patients with advanced melanoma with symptomatic brain metastases. METHODS: This open-label trial assessed vemurafenib (960mg twice a day) in patients with BRAF(V600) mutation-positive metastatic melanoma with non-resectable, previously treated brain metastases. The primary end-point was safety. Secondary end-points included best overall response rate, and progression-free and overall survival. RESULTS: Twenty-four patients received vemurafenib for a median treatment duration of 3.8 (0.1-11.3) months. The majority of discontinuations were due to disease progression (n=22). Twenty-three of 24 patients reported at least one adverse event (AE). Grade 3 AEs were reported in four (17%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.7-37.4%) patients and included cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in four patients. Median progression-free survival was 3.9 (95% CI, 3.0-5.5) months, and median survival was 5.3 (95% CI, 3.9-6.6) months. An overall partial response (PR) at both intracranial and extracranial sites was achieved in 10 of 24 (42%; 95% CI, 22.1-63.4) evaluable patients, with stable disease in nine (38%; 95% CI, 18.8-59.4) patients. Of 19 patients with measurable intracranial disease, seven (37%) achieved >30% intracranial tumour regression, and three (16%; 95% CI, 3.4-39.6%) achieved a confirmed PR. Other signs of improvement included reduced need for corticosteroids and enhanced performance status. CONCLUSIONS: Vemurafenib can be safely used in patients with advanced symptomatic melanoma that has metastasised to the brain and can result in meaningful tumour regression.

Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. We show that observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are widespread, that they lead to biased estimates, unreliable t-statistics and may induce investigators to select false models. We examine whether different objective functions affect identification and study how small samples interact with parameters and shock identification. We provide diagnostics and tests to detect identification failures and apply them to a state-of-the-art model.

Factors associated with comorbidity patterns in full and partial PTSD: Findings from the PsyCoLaus study.

Subtypes of comorbid conditions and their associated trauma and clinical characteristics in full and partial PTSD were examined. Data from 289 subjects from the general population that met criteria for full or partial PTSD were analyzed. Latent class analyses (LCA) were performed to derive homogeneous patterns of DSM-IV Axis-I disorders and anti-social personality comorbid to PTSD. Logistic regression models were conducted to characterize these classes by trauma-related and clinical features. The LCA revealed three classes: (1) low comorbidity; (2) high comorbidity with primarily substance-related disorders and a higher proportion of males; and (3) more severe PTSD-symptomatology and higher comorbid anxiety disorders and depression, almost entirely represented by females. Exposure to sexual abuse was more likely in the substance-dependent class and contributed strongly to the distinction between classes. Affective disorders tended to precede the onset of PTSD in the substance-dependent class, whereas phobias were more likely to follow PTSD in the depressed-anxious class. Posttrauma onset of alcohol use disorders in the substance dependent class confirmed the self-medication hypothesis. The three classes of comorbidity and their sequence of onset with PTSD suggest different mechanisms involved in their development. Our findings suggest that PTSD-related comorbidity subtypes also apply to individuals with partial PTSD.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.