Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

C-reactive protein levels and the expansion of screen-detected abdominal aortic aneurysms in men

Background-C- reactive protein (CRP) levels have been shown to predict a number of cardiovascular outcomes. CRP levels have also been found to be elevated in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). The aim of this study was to assess the relation between CRP levels and rates of expansion of small AAAs. Methods and Results-A cohort of men with small aneurysms was identified in a trial of screening with ultrasound scanning. After initial screening, men were rescanned at 6- to 12-month intervals. CRP levels were measured at the first follow-up visit. Rates of expansion and risk factors for expansion were assessed with the use of data from 545 men who attended for at least 1 scan after CRP levels were measured. These men were followed for a median of 48 (range, 5 to 69) months. The mean annual rate of expansion was 1.6 mm. The median CRP level was 2.6 mg/L in men with the smaller AAAs (30 to 39 mm, n=433) compared with 3.5 mg/L in men with larger AAAs (40 to 54 mm, n=112) (P=0.007). The multivariate age-adjusted logistic model confirmed initial aortic diameter to be the only factor associated with rapid expansion with an odds ratio of 7.2 (95% CI, 4.3,12.2) for an initial diameter of 40 to 54 mm relative to one of 30 to 39 mm. Conclusions-Most small aneurysms expand slowly. CRP levels are elevated in larger aneurysms but do not appear to be associated with rapid expansion. The most useful predictor of aneurysmal expansion in men is aortic diameter.

QUADRANT-SEARCHING: A NEW TECHNIQUE TO REDUCE THE SEARCH SPACE OF THE INVERSE PROBLEM OF EIT USING BEM TO THE DIRECT PROBLEM

The image reconstruction using the EIT (Electrical Impedance Tomography) technique is a nonlinear and ill-posed inverse problem which demands a powerful direct or iterative method. A typical approach for solving the problem is to minimize an error functional using an iterative method. In this case, an initial solution close enough to the global minimum is mandatory to ensure the convergence to the correct minimum in an appropriate time interval. The aim of this paper is to present a new, simple and low cost technique (quadrant-searching) to reduce the search space and consequently to obtain an initial solution of the inverse problem of EIT. This technique calculates the error functional for four different contrast distributions placing a large prospective inclusion in the four quadrants of the domain. Comparing the four values of the error functional it is possible to get conclusions about the internal electric contrast. For this purpose, initially we performed tests to assess the accuracy of the BEM (Boundary Element Method) when applied to the direct problem of the EIT and to verify the behavior of error functional surface in the search space. Finally, numerical tests have been performed to verify the new technique.

On the loss of regularity for a class of weakly hyperbolic operators

In this paper we determine bounds for the optimal loss of regularity in the Sobolev scale for a class of weakly hyperbolic operators. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reaching C-Reactive Protein and Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Goals in Dyslipidemic Patients (from the Lipid Treatment Assessment Project [L-TAP] 2)

The purpose of the present substudy of the Lipid Treatment Assessment Project 2 was to assess dual C-reactive protein (CRP) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol goal attainment across a spectrum of low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients with dyslipidemia in 8 countries in North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia. Of the 9,518 patients studied overall, 45% were women, 64% had hypertension, 31% had diabetes, 14% were current smokers, 60% were high risk, and 79% were taking a statin. The median CRP level was 1.5 mg/L (interquartile range 0.2 to 2.8). On multivariate analysis, higher CRP levels were associated with older age, female gender, hypertension, current smoking, greater body mass index, larger waist circumference, LDL cholesterol level, and triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. In contrast, being from Asia or taking a statin was associated with lower levels. Across all risk groups, 59% of patients attained the CRP target of <2 mg/L, and 33% had <1 mg/L. Overall, 44% of patients attained both their National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III LDL cholesterol target and a CRP level of <2 mg/L, but only 26% attained their LDL cholesterol target and a CRP level of <1 mg/L. In the very high-risk group with coronary heart disease and >= 2 risk factors, only 19% attained both their LDL cholesterol goal and a CRP level of <2 mg/L and 12% their LDL cholesterol goal and a CRP level of <1 mg/L. In conclusion, with current treatment, most dyslipidemic patients do not reach the dual CRP and LDL cholesterol goals. Smoking cessation, weight reduction, and the greater use of more potent statins at higher doses might be able to improve these outcomes. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2011;107:1639-1643)

Impact of clinical varicocele and testis size on seminal reactive oxygen species levels in a fertile population: a prospective controlled study

Objective: To investigate: 1) the impact of clinical varicocele on reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels in neat and washed semen in a proven fertile population; and 2) the correlation between ROS levels, testicular volume, and varicocele grade in the same population of fertile men. Design: Prospective controlled clinical study. Setting: Andrology laboratory at tertiary-care hospital. Patient(s): One hundred fourteen healthy fertile men (81 normal fertile and 33 fertile with clinical varicocele) and 30 infertile patients (control subjects). Intervention(s): Standard semen analysis and measurement of sperm ROS production. Main Outcome Measure(s): Seminal parameters, seminal ROS levels, seminal leukocyte levels, clinical varicocele, and testis size. Result(s): Thirty-three of the 11.4 (29%) fertile men had clinical varicocele (grade 1, n = 14; grade 2, n = 11; and grade 3, n = 8), and the remaining 81 (71%) had a normal physical examination. Levels of ROS and semen quality did not differ significantly between the fertile men with or without varicocele. No significant differences in ROS levels in neat and washed semen were observed compared with fertile men with grades 2 and 3 varicocele and with fertile men with varicocele grade 1. The ROS levels in neat and washed semen were not significantly correlated with varicocele grade in fertile men. No significant correlations between ROS levels and testis volume were observed between the fertile groups. Conclusion(s): The presence of clinical varicocele in fertile men is not associated with higher seminal ROS levels or abnormal semen parameters. Levels of ROS are not correlated with varicocele grade or testis volume in the same population of fertile men.

Three-dimensional model for multi-component reactive transport with variable density groundwater flow

PHWAT is a new model that couples a geochemical reaction model (PHREEQC-2) with a density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport model (SEAWAT) using the split-operator approach. PHWAT was developed to simulate multi-component reactive transport in variable density groundwater flow. Fluid density in PHWAT depends not on only the concentration of a single species as in SEAWAT, but also the concentrations of other dissolved chemicals that can be subject to reactive processes. Simulation results of PHWAT and PHREEQC-2 were compared in their predictions of effluent concentration from a column experiment. Both models produced identical results, showing that PHWAT has correctly coupled the sub-packages. PHWAT was then applied to the simulation of a tank experiment in which seawater intrusion was accompanied by cation exchange. The density dependence of the intrusion and the snow-plough effect in the breakthrough curves were reflected in the model simulations, which were in good agreement with the measured breakthrough data. Comparison simulations that, in turn, excluded density effects and reactions allowed us to quantify the marked effect of ignoring these processes. Next, we explored numerical issues involved in the practical application of PHWAT using the example of a dense plume flowing into a tank containing fresh water. It was shown that PHWAT could model physically unstable flow and that numerical instabilities were suppressed. Physical instability developed in the model in accordance with the increase of the modified Rayleigh number for density-dependent flow, in agreement with previous research. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mild myocardial infarction - A classification problem in epidemiologic studies

In studies assessing the trends in coronary events, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project (multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants of CArdiovascular disease), the main emphasis has been on coronary deaths and non-fatal definite myocardial infarctions (MI). It is, however, possible that the proportion of milder MIs may be increasing because of improvements in treatment and reductions in levels of risk factors. We used the MI register data of the WHO MONICA Project to investigate several definitions for mild non-fatal MIs that would be applicable in various settings and could be used to assess trends in milder coronary events. Of 38 populations participating in the WHO MONICA MI register study, more than half registered a sufficiently wide spectrum of events that it was possible to identify subsets of milder cases. The event rates and case fatality rates of MI are clearly dependent on the spectrum of non-fatal MIs, which are included. On clinical grounds we propose that the original MONICA category ''non-fatal possible MI'' could bt:divided into two groups: ''non fatal probable MI'' and ''prolonged chest pain.'' Non-fatal probable MIs are cases, which in addition to ''typical symptoms'' have electrocardiogram (EGG) or enzyme changes suggesting cardiac ischemia, but not severe enough to fulfil the criteria for non-fatal definite MI In more than half of the MONICA Collaborating Centers, the registration of MI covers these milder events reasonably well. Proportions of non-fatal probable MIs vary less between populations than do proportions of non fatal possible MIs. Also rates of non-fatal probable MI are somewhat more highly correlated with rates of fatal events and non-fatal definite MI. These findings support the validity of the category of non-fatal probable MI. In each center the increase in event rates and the decrease in case-fatality due to the inclusion of non-fatal probable MI was lar er for women than men. For the WHO MONICA Project and other epidemiological studies the proposed category of non-fatal probable MIs can be used for assessing trends in rates of milder MI. Copyright (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.

The intersection problem for K_4-e designs

A G-design of order n is a pair (P,B) where P is the vertex set of the complete graph K-n and B is an edge-disjoint decomposition of K-n into copies of the simple graph G. Following design terminology, we call these copies ''blocks''. Here K-4 - e denotes the complete graph K-4 with one edge removed. It is well-known that a K-4 - e design of order n exists if and only if n = 0 or 1 (mod 5), n greater than or equal to 6. The intersection problem here asks for which k is it possible to find two K-4 - e designs (P,B-1) and (P,B-2) of order n, with \B-1 boolean AND B-2\ = k, that is, with precisely k common blocks. Here we completely solve this intersection problem for K-4 - e designs.

SINGLE MEASUREMENTS OF C-REACTIVE PROTEIN AND DISEASE ACTIVITY SCORES ARE NOT PREDICTORS OF CAROTID ATHEROSCLEROSIS IN RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS PATIENTS

Background: Although inflammation has a defined role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, the link between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) parameters of disease activity and atherosclerotic findings are not defined. Objective: To investigate the association between subclinical carotid atherosclerosis and clinical/laboratorial parameters of RA systemic inflammatory activity. Methods: Seventy-one RA patients were consecutively selected and compared to 53 healthy controls. Smoking, diabetes and hypertension were excluded, as well as the use of statins or fibrates. B-mode carotid ultrasound was performed in all subjects. CRP, ESR and fibrinogen were determined in both groups. Clinical assessment of RA activity included DAS 28 and SDAI. Correlation between plaques and intima-media thickness (IMT) of common carotid arteries and inflammatory parameters was evaluated. Results: Carotid plaques were more prevalent in RA patients than in controls (14.1% vs. 1.9 %, p=0.02) and marginally increased IMT was observed (0.72 +/- 0.17 vs. 0.67 +/- 0.15mm, p=0.07). RA patients with plaques had older age (p=0.001) and increased IMT (p<0.001), but low SDAI (p=0.025) compared to those without plaques. RA patients with plaques had also longer disease duration, although this difference did not reach statistical significance (p=0.06). No significant correlations were found between IMT and ESR (p=0.80), CRP (p=0.75), fibrinogen (p=0.94), HAQ (p=0.89) and DAS 28 (p=0.13). Conclusions: Carotid atherosclerosis is more frequently detected in RA but its prevalence was not correlated with isolated inflammatory markers measurement or noncumulative activity scores. These findings reinforce the need to evaluate subclinical atherosclerosis in RA patients, and to find predictors of atherosclerotic lesions.

Most of the patients presenting myocardial infarction would not be eligible for intensive lipid-lowering based on clinical algorithms or plasma C-reactive protein

Objective: The study we assessed how often patients who are manifesting a myocardial infarction (MI) would not be considered candidates for intensive lipid-lowering therapy based on the current guidelines. Methods: In 355 consecutive patients manifesting ST elevation MI (STEMI), admission plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) was measured and Framingham risk score (FRS), PROCAM risk score, Reynolds risk score, ASSIGN risk score, QRISK, and SCORE algorithms were applied. Cardiac computed tomography and carotid ultrasound were performed to assess the coronary artery calcium score (CAC), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and the presence of carotid plaques. Results: Less than 50% of STEMI patients would be identified as having high risk before the event by any of these algorithms. With the exception of FRS (9%), all other algorithms would assign low risk to about half of the enrolled patients. Plasma CRP was <1.0 mg/L in 70% and >2 mg/L in 14% of the patients. The average cIMT was 0.8 +/- 0.2 mm and only in 24% of patients was >= 1.0 mm. Carotid plaques were found in 74% of patients. CAC > 100 was found in 66% of patients. Adding CAC >100 plus the presence of carotid plaque, a high-risk condition would be identified in 100% of the patients using any of the above mentioned algorithms. Conclusion: More than half of patients manifesting STEMI would not be considered as candidates for intensive preventive therapy by the current clinical algorithms. The addition of anatomical parameters such as CAC and the presence of carotid plaques can substantially reduce the CVD risk underestimation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Optimal Medical Treatment With or Without Coronary Revascularization on Angina and Subsequent Revascularizations in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Stable Ischemic Heart Disease

Background-In the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial, an initial strategy of coronary revascularization and optimal medical treatment (REV) compared with an initial optimal medical treatment with the option of subsequent revascularization (MED) did not reduce all-cause mortality or the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic heart disease. In the same population, we tested whether the REV strategy was superior to the MED strategy in preventing worsening and new angina and subsequent coronary revascularizations. Methods and Results-Among the 2364 men and women (mean age, 62.4 years) with type 2 diabetes mellitus, documented coronary artery disease, and myocardial ischemia, 1191 were randomized to the MED and 1173 to the REV strategy preselected in the percutaneous coronary intervention (796) and coronary artery bypass graft (377) strata. Compared with the MED strategy, the REV strategy at the 3-year follow-up had a lower rate of worsening angina (8% versus 13%; P < 0.001), new angina (37% versus 51%; P = 0.001), and subsequent coronary revascularizations (18% versus 33%; P < 0.001) and a higher rate of angina-free status (66% versus 58%; P = 0.003). The coronary artery bypass graft stratum patients were at higher risk than those in the percutaneous coronary intervention stratum, and had the greatest benefits from REV. Conclusions-In these patients, the REV strategy reduced the occurrence of worsening angina, new angina, and subsequent coronary revascularizations more than the MED strategy. The symptomatic benefits were observed particularly for high-risk patients.

Optimal quantum measurements for phase-shift estimation in optical interferometry

Quantum information theory, applied to optical interferometry, yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty Delta phi independent of the applied phase shift phi, where n is the number of photons in the interferometer. This 1/n scaling is achieved provided that the output state is subjected to an optimal phase measurement. We establish this scaling law for both passive (linear) and active (nonlinear) interferometers and identify the coefficient of proportionality. Whereas a highly nonclassical state is required to achieve optimal scaling for passive interferometry, a classical input state yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty for active interferometry.

Orofacial granulomatosis: A diagnostic problem for the unwary and a management dilemma. Case reports

Orofacial granulomatosis is a condition that, may be difficult to diagnose for those unfamiliar with the entity. This paper describes two cases and addresses the presentation, pathogenesis and treatment. The clinical recognition of his condition is important as is the subsequent investigation by an appropriate specialist. Management of patients needs to take into account the results of further investigations, the patient's expectations, and the severity of the condition.