Signaling in political budget cycles: How far are you willing to go?

This paper analyzes how heterogeneity in two dimensions, competency and character, a¤ects political budget cycles. Competency is the e¢ciency in running the government. Character is the degree of opportunism. In this expanded space, previous results in the literature on the separating nature of the signaling equilibrium hold if heterogeneity in opportunism is low. With high heterogeneity in opportunism, no separating equilibrium exists. Rather, the equilibrium is partially pooling: only extreme types can be distinguished.

Common factors in Latin America's business cycles

This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external trade, fiscal and financial variables. The analysis spans the 135 years since the insertion of these economies into the global economy in the 1870s. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cyc1e chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that ali four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cyc1e volatility and persistence relative to advanced country benchmarks. Volatility changed considerably over time, however, being very high during early formative decades through the Great Depression, and again during the 1970s and ear1y 1980s, before declining sharply in three of the four countries. We also identify a sizeable common factor across the four economies which variance decompositions ascribe mostly to foreign interest rates and shocks to commodity terms of trade.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Analysis of testosterone pulsatility in women with ovulatory menstrual cycles

Objetivo: Avaliar o padrão pulsátil da secreção da testosterona em mulheres normais. Métodos: Oito mulheres saudáveis com ciclos ovulatórios foram selecionadas. Amostras sanguíneas foram coletadas a cada dez minutos durante seis horas, começando entre 7 e 8 h da manhã, após dez horas de jejum, nas três fases do ciclo menstrual: folicular média (Dia 7), folicular tardia (Dia 12) e lútea (Dia 21). Foram mensurados: testosterona, LH e, no basal, também SHBG. Resultados: A frequência dos pulsos de testosterona, média da amplitude do pulso, porcentagem do incremento da amplitude, duração e intervalos dos pulsos foram similares nas três fases (p > 0,05). A pulsatilidade do LH foi estatisticamente diferente entre as três fases (p < 0,001), caracterizando padrão característico do ciclo ovulatório normal. Conclusões: Esses dados aumentam o conhecimento sobre o padrão de secreção da testosterona no ciclo menstrual humano e representam uma contribuição para a investigação clínica, tanto no hiperandrogenismo como na síndrome de insuficiência androgênica __________________________________________________ ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the pattern of the pulsatile secretion of testosterone in normal menstrual cycle. Methods: Eight healthy women with ovulatory menstrual cycles were enrolled. Blood samples were collected at ten-minute intervals for six hours, starting between 7 and 8 am, after a ten-hour fasting, in three phases: mid-follicular (Day 7), late follicular (Day 12) and mid-luteal phase (Day 21). Samples were assayed for testosterone, LH and the baseline also for SHBG. Results: Testosterone pulse frequency, mean amplitude pulse, percentage of increment in pulse amplitude, mean duration of pulses and pulse interval were similar in the three phases. LH pulsatility was statistically different among the three phases (p < 0.001) representing normal ovulatory cycles. Conclusions: These data increase the knowledge about the testosterone secretion profile in the human menstrual cycle and can be used as a contribution to clinical investigation in both hyperandrogenism and androgen insufficiency syndrome

Limnology of Macrobrachium amazonicum grow-out ponds subject to high inflow of nutrient-rich water and different stocking and harvest management

We evaluated the water characteristics and particle sedimentation in Macrobrachium amazonicum (Heller 1862) grow-out ponds supplied with a high inflow of nutrient-rich water. Prawns were subject to different stocking and harvesting strategies: upper-graded juveniles, lower-graded juveniles, non-graded juveniles + selective harvesting and traditional farming (non-grading juveniles and total harvest only). Dissolved oxygen, afternoon N-ammonia and N-nitrate and soluble orthophosphate were lower in the ponds in comparison with inflow water through the rearing cycle. Ponds stocked with the upper population fraction of graded prawns showed higher turbidity, total suspended solids and total Kjeldahl nitrogen than the remaining treatments. An increase in the chemical oxygen demand:biochemical oxygen demand ratio from inlet (4.9) to pond (7.1-8.0) waters indicated a non-readily biodegradable fraction enhancement in ponds. The sedimentation mean rate ranged from 0.08 to 0.16 mm day(-1) and sediment contained >80% of organic matter. The major factors affecting pond ecosystem dynamic were the organic load (due to primary production and feed addition) and bioturbation caused by stocking larger animals. Data suggest that M. amazonicum grow-out in ponds subjected to a high inflow of nutrient-rich water produce changes in the water properties, huge accumulation of organic sediment at the pond bottom and non-readily biodegradable material in the water column. However, the water quality remains suitable for aquaculture purposes. Therefore, nutrient-rich waters, when available, may represent a source of unpaid nutrients, which may be incorporated into economically valued biomass if managed properly.

Growth and body nutrient deposition of two broiler commercial genetic lines

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nutrient digestibility, but not mineral absorption, is age-dependent in cats

Availability of nutrients is influenced by extremes of age, and a better characterization of this influence is necessary for appropriate development of foods and nutritional management throughout life stages of cats. This study investigated nutrient digestibility, mineral absorption, faeces and urine production in three groups of six young, mature and old cats fed two diets containing different energy densities. Apparent digestibility and mineral absorption were calculated by total collection method and values were tested with ANOVA and regression analysis. A quadratic relationship was detected between age and digestibility of dry matter, organic matter, crude protein, acid-hydrolysed fat and starch in the low-energy diet. Starch digestibility showed the same response in the high-energy diet. Young adult cats had intermediate digestibility, mature cats the highest and old cats the lowest. Mineral absorption (calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, sodium, potassium and chloride) and urinary pH were not different among groups. These findings confirm previous studies that found low digestibility of nutrients in some old cats, and support evidence that this trend is even more important in less digestible dry foods. on the contrary, data suggest that mineral formulations do not need to be varied in diets for adult cats of different ages.

Nutrient contents and production of rocket as affected by nitrogen concentrations in the nutritive solution

O empirismo no uso das soluções nutritivas é freqüente. Muitas vezes a mesma solução nutritiva é usada para diferentes espécies baseando-se apenas em semelhanças morfológicas. No entanto esta situação pode proporcionar desequilíbrio nutricional prejudicando tanto a produção quanto a qualidade do produto face o acúmulo de nitrato. Foi conduzido um trabalho em sistema hidropônico - NFT, com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito da concentração de nitrogênio na solução nutritiva na produção, nos teores de nutrientes e de nitrato em folhas de rúcula (Eruca sativa). O trabalho foi conduzido na primavera de 2003. Foram avaliadas quatro concentrações de nitrogênio na solução nutritiva (60,8; 121,6; 182,5; 243,5 mg L-1) e três cultivares de rúcula (Cultivada, Folha Larga e Selvática), sob delineamento de blocos ao acaso, fatorial 4 x 3, com quatro repetições. A cv. Cultivada apresentou maior estatura e fitomassa fresca de folhas, não diferindo da 'Folha Larga' quanto a número de folhas, teor de nitrato nas folhas e fitomassa seca e fresca da raiz. Houve incremento de NO3-, N, Ca e P e diminuição de Mg, K e S com o aumento da concentração de N na solução nutritiva. O cultivo da cv. Cultivada na concentração de 93 mg L-1 é a mais recomendada em função da maior produtividade e baixo teor de nitrato.

Severity of banana leaf spot in an intercropping system in two cycles of banana Prata Ana

Prata Ana is the most planted banana cultivar in northern Minas Gerais, Brazil. It is however susceptible to several pathogens. This study was carried out to evaluate the disease severity of banana leaf spot in the Prata Ana cv. in the first and second cycle under six different planting systems. The randomized block experimental design was used with six treatments and four replications. lit an evaluation of the severity of banana leaf spot, no disease symptoms were found on Thap Maeo and Caipira. The evolution curve of the disease indicated seasonal effects in the first and second cycles. The severity, of banana leaf spot was highest soon after the regional rainy period from November to March. A comparison of the means of the evaluations indicated a reduction in disease severity from the first to the second cycle.

Acidez do solo e calagem em pomares de frutíferas tropicais

A produtividade agrícola nos trópicos é afetada, principalmente, pelos fatores ligados à acidez do solo (pH, saturação por bases, acidez potencial, disponibilidade de nutrientes). A calagem é uma prática bem conhecida para corrigir a acidez do solo em culturas anuais, ainda que não seja praticada com a regularidade necessária. Entretanto, em culturas perenes, a incorporação de corretivos é mais complexa, devido às características desse grupo de plantas e à carência de informações científicas sobre o assunto. em condições de acidez, a calagem promove a neutralização do Al3+, a elevação do pH e o fornecimento de Ca e Mg, possibilitando a proliferação de raízes, com reflexos positivos no crescimento da parte aérea das plantas. Contudo, devido à baixa solubilidade e à lenta movimentação do calcário ao longo do perfil do solo, há obrigatoriedade de se fazer distribuição uniforme e incorporação profunda, antecedendo a implantação do pomar, a fim de garantir o eficiente aproveitamento de água e de nutrientes contidos nessas camadas. A calagem deve ser considerada um investimento, pois seus benefícios perduram além de um ano ou de uma safra agrícola. Isso se deve ao efeito residual dos corretivos de acidez do solo, sendo o tempo de duração desse efeito dependente de vários fatores, entre os quais: condições edafoclimáticas, cultura, manejo da área e tipo de corretivo empregado. em geral, partículas maiores de calcário têm efeito residual mais prolongado, sendo empregadas na implantação dos pomares. No entanto, a relação entre o tamanho da partícula e o efeito residual tem sido pouco pesquisada, devido à necessidade de estudos de longa duração. em função das elevadas doses de adubos nitrogenados utilizadas nos pomares de altos rendimentos, a acidez do solo aumenta, como resultado do processo de nitrificação. em pomares já implantados, o procedimento atualmente utilizado pelos produtores é a incorporação superficial do calcário na área. As recomendações talvez fossem outras, caso houvesse maior subsídio da pesquisa, tendo em vista os diversos problemas fitossanitários que podem ocorrer, direta ou indiretamente da prática da incorporação do corretivo, tais como redução do sistema radicular, ferimento das raízes e consequente risco de infecções, com disseminação de pragas e doenças no pomar. O objetivo desta revisão é apresentar os principais resultados de pesquisas sobre o assunto, mostrando os efeitos da calagem sobre a fertilidade do solo, a nutrição e a produtividade de frutíferas de grande importância econômica para o Brasil, bem como discutir a duração do efeito residual dos corretivos e a dose mais ecônomica a ser aplicada nos pomares de frutas em implantação e em produção.

Soil, water and nutrient losses by interrill erosion from green cane cultivation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modos de aplicação de zinco na nutrição e no crescimento inicial da cultura do arroz

The present research had he objective to evaluate rice response to zinc application forms on the nutrition, growth and dry matter production, in vase conditions. The experiment was carried out in a completely randomized design, with five treatments (leaf Zn, incorporated Zn, located Zn, Zn saw seed and witness - whitout zinc), in four repetitions during two cycles of cultivation with 42 days of duration each. Plastic vase of 7L, were filled with Red Distrofic Latosol (Zn = 0.3 mg dm(-3) in DTPA). The application of Zn saw soil in both culture of the rice improved its level in the soil, being distinguished it from located form. In the first cycle, the application of Zn saw leaf promoted greater absorption of the nutrient for the rice plants, while in the second cycle leaf application was followed by the saw soil incorporated. The biggest dry matter production occurred with application of leaf saw in the first cycle and saw soil (incorporated and located) in the second rice cultivation.

Compositional nutrient diagnosis of corn using the Mahalanobis distance as nutrient imbalance index

Parent, L. E., Natale, W. and Ziadi, N. 2009. Compositional nutrient diagnosis of corn using the Mahalanobis distance as nutrient imbalance index. Can. J. Soil Sci. 89: 383-390. Compositional nutrient diagnosis (CND) provides a plant nutrient imbalance index (CND - r(2)) with assumed chi(2) distribution. The Mahalanobis distance D(2), which detects outliers in compositional data sets, also has a chi(2) distribution. The objective of this paper was to compare D(2) and CND - r(2) nutrient imbalance indexes in corn (Zea mays L.). We measured grain yield as well as N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn concentrations in the ear leaf at silk stage for 210 calibration sites in the St. Lawrence Lowlands [2300-2700 corn thermal units (CTU)] as well as 30 phosphorus (2300-2700 CTU; 10 sites) and 10 nitrogen (1900-2100 CTU; one site) replicated fertilizer treatments for validation. We derived CND norms as mean, standard deviation, and the inverse covariance matrix of centred log ratios (clr) for high yielding specimens (>= 9.0 Mg grain ha(-1) at 150 g H(2)O kg(-1) moisture content) in the 2300-2700 CTU zone. Using chi(2) = 17 (P < 0.05) with nine degrees of freedom (i.e., nine nutrients) as a rejection criterion for outliers and a yield threshold of 8.6 Mg ha(-1) after Cate-Nelson partitioning between low- and high-yielders in the P validation data set, D(2) misclassified two specimens compared with nine for CND -r(2). The D(2) classification was not significantly different from a chi(2) classification (P > 0.05), but the CND - r(2) classification differed significantly from chi(2) or D(2) (P < 0.001). A threshold value for nutrient imbalance could thus be derived probabilistically for conducting D(2) diagnosis, while the CND - r(2) nutrient imbalance threshold must be calibrated using fertilizer trials. In the proposed CND - D(2) procedure, D(2) is first computed to classify the specimen as possible outlier. Thereafter, nutrient indices are ranked in their order of limitation. The D(2) norms appeared less effective in the 1900-2100 CTU zone.