'Bayesian Optimisation for Nurse Scheduling'

A Bayesian optimisation algorithm for a nurse scheduling problem is presented, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each nurse's assignment. When a human scheduler works, he normally builds a schedule systematically following a set of rules. After much practice, the scheduler gradually masters the knowledge of which solution parts go well with others. He can identify good parts and is aware of the solution quality even if the scheduling process is not yet completed, thus having the ability to finish a schedule by using flexible, rather than fixed, rules. In this paper, we design a more human-like scheduling algorithm, by using a Bayesian optimisation algorithm to implement explicit learning from past solutions. A nurse scheduling problem from a UK hospital is used for testing. Unlike our previous work that used Genetic Algorithms to implement implicit learning [1], the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. we identify and mix building blocks directly. The Bayesian optimisation algorithm is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, new rule strings have been obtained. Sets of rule strings are generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. For clarity, consider the following toy example of scheduling five nurses with two rules (1: random allocation, 2: allocate nurse to low-cost shifts). In the beginning of the search, the probabilities of choosing rule 1 or 2 for each nurse is equal, i.e. 50%. After a few iterations, due to the selection pressure and reinforcement learning, we experience two solution pathways: Because pure low-cost or random allocation produces low quality solutions, either rule 1 is used for the first 2-3 nurses and rule 2 on remainder or vice versa. In essence, Bayesian network learns 'use rule 2 after 2-3x using rule 1' or vice versa. It should be noted that for our and most other scheduling problems, the structure of the network model is known and all variables are fully observed. In this case, the goal of learning is to find the rule values that maximize the likelihood of the training data. Thus, learning can amount to 'counting' in the case of multinomial distributions. For our problem, we use our rules: Random, Cheapest Cost, Best Cover and Balance of Cost and Cover. In more detail, the steps of our Bayesian optimisation algorithm for nurse scheduling are: 1. Set t = 0, and generate an initial population P(0) at random; 2. Use roulette-wheel selection to choose a set of promising rule strings S(t) from P(t); 3. Compute conditional probabilities of each node according to this set of promising solutions; 4. Assign each nurse using roulette-wheel selection based on the rules' conditional probabilities. A set of new rule strings O(t) will be generated in this way; 5. Create a new population P(t+1) by replacing some rule strings from P(t) with O(t), and set t = t+1; 6. If the termination conditions are not met (we use 2000 generations), go to step 2. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. They also suggest that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems. Another direction for further research is to see if there is a good constructing sequence for individual data instances, given a fixed nurse scheduling order. If so, the good patterns could be recognized and then extracted as new domain knowledge. Thus, by using this extracted knowledge, we can assign specific rules to the corresponding nurses beforehand, and only schedule the remaining nurses with all available rules, making it possible to reduce the solution space. Acknowledgements The work was funded by the UK Government's major funding agency, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), under grand GR/R92899/01. References [1] Aickelin U, "An Indirect Genetic Algorithm for Set Covering Problems", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 53(10): 1118-1126,

'The application of Bayesian Optimization and Classifier Systems in Nurse Scheduling'

Abstract. Two ideas taken from Bayesian optimization and classifier systems are presented for personnel scheduling based on choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each person's assignment. Unlike our previous work of using genetic algorithms whose learning is implicit, the learning in both approaches is explicit, i.e. we are able to identify building blocks directly. To achieve this target, the Bayesian optimization algorithm builds a Bayesian network of the joint probability distribution of the rules used to construct solutions, while the adapted classifier system assigns each rule a strength value that is constantly updated according to its usefulness in the current situation. Computational results from 52 real data instances of nurse scheduling demonstrate the success of both approaches. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approaches might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

Detecting Danger: Applying a Novel Immunological Concept to Intrusion Detection Systems'

INTRODUCTION In recent years computer systems have become increasingly complex and consequently the challenge of protecting these systems has become increasingly difficult. Various techniques have been implemented to counteract the misuse of computer systems in the form of firewalls, antivirus software and intrusion detection systems. The complexity of networks and dynamic nature of computer systems leaves current methods with significant room for improvement. Computer scientists have recently drawn inspiration from mechanisms found in biological systems and, in the context of computer security, have focused on the human immune system (HIS). The human immune system provides an example of a robust, distributed system that provides a high level of protection from constant attacks. By examining the precise mechanisms of the human immune system, it is hoped the paradigm will improve the performance of real intrusion detection systems. This paper presents an introduction to recent developments in the field of immunology. It discusses the incorporation of a novel immunological paradigm, Danger Theory, and how this concept is inspiring artificial immune systems (AIS). Applications within the context of computer security are outlined drawing direct reference to the underlying principles of Danger Theory and finally, the current state of intrusion detection systems is discussed and improvements suggested.

'Investigating Artificial Immune Systems For Job Shop Rescheduling In Changing Environments'

ABSTRACT Artificial immune system can be used to generate schedules in changing environments and it has been proven to be more robust than schedules developed using a genetic algorithm. Good schedules can be produced especially when the number of the antigens is increased. However, an increase in the range of the antigens had somehow affected the fitness of the immune system. In this research, we are trying to improve the result of the system by rescheduling the same problem using the same method while at the same time maintaining the robustness of the schedules.

'Immune System Approaches to Intrusion Detection - A Review'

Abstract. The use of artificial immune systems in intrusion detection is an appealing concept for two reasons. Firstly, the human immune system provides the human body with a high level of protection from invading pathogens, in a robust, self-organised and distributed manner. Secondly, current techniques used in computer security are not able to cope with the dynamic and increasingly complex nature of computer systems and their security. It is hoped that biologically inspired approaches in this area, including the use of immune-based systems will be able to meet this challenge. Here we collate the algorithms used, the development of the systems and the outcome of their implementation. It provides an introduction and review of the key developments within this field, in addition to making suggestions for future research.

'Movie Recommendation Systems Using An Artificial Immune System'

We apply the Artificial Immune System (AIS)technology to the collaborative Filtering (CF)technology when we build the movie recommendation system. Two different affinity measure algorithms of AIS, Kendall tau and Weighted Kappa, are used to calculate the correlation coefficients for this movie recommendation system. From the testing we think that Weighted Kappa is more suitable than Kendall tau for movie problems.

'On Affinity Measures for Artificial Immune System Movie Recommenders'

Abstract. We combine Artificial Immune Systems (AIS) technology with Collaborative Filtering (CF) and use it to build a movie recommendation system. We already know that Artificial Immune Systems work well as movie recommenders from previous work by Cayzer and Aickelin ([3], [4], [5]). Here our aim is to investigate the effect of different affinity measure algorithms for the AIS. Two different affinity measures, Kendall's Tau and Weighted Kappa, are used to calculate the correlation coefficients for the movie recommender. We compare the results with those published previously and show that that Weighted Kappa is more suitable than others for movie problems. We also show that AIS are generally robust movie recommenders and that, as long as a suitable affinity measure is chosen, results are good.

'Introducing Dendritic Cells as a Novel Immune-Inspired Algorithm for Anomaly Detection'

Abstract. Dendritic cells are antigen presenting cells that provide a vital link between the innate and adaptive immune system. Research into this family of cells has revealed that they perform the role of coordinating T-cell based immune responses, both reactive and for generating tolerance. We have derived an algorithm based on the functionality of these cells, and have used the signals and differentiation pathways to build a control mechanism for an artificial immune system. We present our algorithmic details in addition to some preliminary results, where the algorithm was applied for the purpose of anomaly detection. We hope that this algorithm will eventually become the key component within a large, distributed immune system, based on sound immunological concepts.

'Towards a Conceptual Framework for Innate Immunity'

Innate immunity now occupies a central role in immunology. However, artificial immune system models have largely been inspired by adaptive not innate immunity. This paper reviews the biological principles and properties of innate immunity and, adopting a conceptual framework, asks how these can be incorporated into artificial models. The aim is to outline a meta-framework for models of innate immunity.

'Cooperative Automated worm Response and Detection ImmuNe ALgorithm (CARDINAL) inspired by T-cell Immunity and Tolerance'

The role of T-cells within the immune system is to confirm and assess anomalous situations and then either respond to or tolerate the source of the effect. To illustrate how these mechanisms can be harnessed to solve real-world problems, we present the blueprint of a T-cell inspired algorithm for computer security worm detection. We show how the three central T-cell processes, namely T-cell maturation, differentiation and proliferation, naturally map into this domain and further illustrate how such an algorithm fits into a complete immune inspired computer security system and framework.

Encapsulating and Manipulating Component Object Graphics (COGs) using SVG

Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG) has an imaging model similar to that of PostScript and PDF but the XML basis of SVG allows it to participate fully, via namespaces, in generalised XML documents.There is increasing interest in using SVG as a Page Description Language and we examine ways in which SVG document components can be encapsulated in contexts where SVG will be used as a rendering technology for conventional page printing.Our aim is to encapsulate portions of SVG content (SVG COGs) so that the COGs are mutually independent and can be moved around a page, while maintaining invariant graphic properties and with guaranteed freedom from side effects and mutual interference. Parellels are drawn between COG implementation within SVG's tree-based inheritance mechanisms and an earlier COG implementation using PDF.

'Exploiting problem structure in a genetic algorithm approach to a nurse rostering problem'

There is considerable interest in the use of genetic algorithms to solve problems arising in the areas of scheduling and timetabling. However, the classical genetic algorithm paradigm is not well equipped to handle the conflict between objectives and constraints that typically occurs in such problems. In order to overcome this, successful implementations frequently make use of problem specific knowledge. This paper is concerned with the development of a GA for a nurse rostering problem at a major UK hospital. The structure of the constraints is used as the basis for a co-evolutionary strategy using co-operating sub-populations. Problem specific knowledge is also used to define a system of incentives and disincentives, and a complementary mutation operator. Empirical results based on 52 weeks of live data show how these features are able to improve an unsuccessful canonical GA to the point where it is able to provide a practical solution to the problem.

Enhancing composite Digital Documents Using XML-based Standoff Markup

Document representations can rapidly become unwieldy if they try to encapsulate all possible document properties, ranging from abstract structure to detailed rendering and layout. We present a composite document approach wherein an XMLbased document representation is linked via a shadow tree of bi-directional pointers to a PDF representation of the same document. Using a two-window viewer any material selected in the PDF can be related back to the corresponding material in the XML, and vice versa. In this way the treatment of specialist material such as mathematics, music or chemistry (e.g. via read aloud or play aloud ) can be activated via standard tools working within the XML representation, rather than requiring that application-specific structures be embedded in the PDF itself. The problems of textual recognition and tree pattern matching between the two representations are discussed in detail. Comparisons are drawn between our use of a shadow tree of pointers to map between document representations and the use of a code-replacement shadow tree in technologies such as XBL.

'Enhanced Direct and Indirect Genetic Algorithm Approaches for a Mall Layout and Tenant Selection Problem'

During our earlier research, it was recognised that in order to be successful with an indirect genetic algorithm approach using a decoder, the decoder has to strike a balance between being an optimiser in its own right and finding feasible solutions. Previously this balance was achieved manually. Here we extend this by presenting an automated approach where the genetic algorithm itself, simultaneously to solving the problem, sets weights to balance the components out. Subsequently we were able to solve a complex and non-linear scheduling problem better than with a standard direct genetic algorithm implementation.

Óbidos, literary village: innovation in the creative industries?

The village of Óbidos was recognized in 2015 as a creative city in the area of literature, becoming a member of the UNESCO Creative Cities Network. The attribution of the title depends on the fulfillment of a number of criteria the regions have to integrate. In addition to Óbidos, UNESCO attributed the same title in the same year to other European cities, including Barcelona, Nottingham, Ljubljana, Tartu and Lviv. This article intends to co nduct a case study to the cultural and artistic offer, as well as the cultural and literary legacy that different cities provide to be able to inquire the innovation of the proposals. The study aims to assess how much Óbidos, compared to other cities with the same title, is creative. Knowing that the concept of creative city (Landry and Bianchini, 1995) results from the emergence of new technologies and a new type of economy based on creativity and innovation and that creativity implies removing economic or social value of the creative work or talent, the study aims to determine to what extent the processes generated gave rise to new ideas (creativity) and what processes led to its implementation (innovation). Being innovation in the creative industries asso ciated with product, process, positioning, paradigmatic and social innovation (Storsul and Krumsvik, 2013), it is concluded that, in Óbidos, the entrepreneurship initiatives are more focused on tourists who occasionally visit the village and the business o pportunities that are generated there. New innovative and creative spaces were created, promoting literature and adding value and quality to urban space. This urban intervention resulted in the attraction of individuals who streamlined new habits of being and acting in the village