Pedigree-free animal models : the relatedness matrix reloaded

Animal models typically require a known genetic pedigree to estimate quantitative genetic parameters. Here we test whether animal models can alternatively be based on estimates of relatedness derived entirely from molecular marker data. Our case study is the morphology of a wild bird population, for which we report estimates of the genetic variance-covariance matrices (G) of six morphological traits using three methods: the traditional animal model; a molecular marker-based approach to estimate heritability based on Ritland's pairwise regression method; and a new approach using a molecular genealogy arranged in a relatedness matrix (R) to replace the pedigree in an animal model. Using the traditional animal model, we found significant genetic variance for all six traits and positive genetic covariance among traits. The pairwise regression method did not return reliable estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in this population, with estimates of genetic variance and covariance typically being very small or negative. In contrast, we found mixed evidence for the use of the pedigree-free animal model. Similar to the pairwise regression method, the pedigree-free approach performed poorly when the full-rank R matrix based on the molecular genealogy was employed. However, performance improved substantially when we reduced the dimensionality of the R matrix in order to maximize the signal to noise ratio. Using reduced-rank R matrices generated estimates of genetic variance that were much closer to those from the traditional model. Nevertheless, this method was less reliable at estimating covariances, which were often estimated to be negative. Taken together, these results suggest that pedigree-free animal models can recover quantitative genetic information, although the signal remains relatively weak. It remains to be determined whether this problem can be overcome by the use of a more powerful battery of molecular markers and improved methods for reconstructing genealogies.

On the efficacy of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts

The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that a statistical-based method based on likelihood theory and an economic loss function based on portfolio variance are the most effective means of identifying optimal forecasts of conditional covariance matrices.

Ergodic capacity of the slotted amplify and forward relay channel with finite relays

Abstract—In this paper we investigate the capacity of a general class of the slotted amplify and forward (SAF) relaying protocol where multiple, though a finite number of relays may transmit in a given cooperative slot and the relay terminals being half-duplex have a finite slot memory capacity. We derive an expression for the capacity per channel use of this generalized SAF channel assuming all source to relay, relay to destination and source to destination channel gains are independent and modeled as complex Gaussian. We show through the analysis of eigenvalue distributions that the increase in limiting capacity per channel use is marginal with the increase of relay terminals.

Reliability of partial ambiguity fixing with multiple GNSS constellations

Reliable ambiguity resolution (AR) is essential to Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning and its applications, since incorrect ambiguity fixing can lead to largely biased positioning solutions. A partial ambiguity fixing technique is developed to improve the reliability of AR, involving partial ambiguity decorrelation (PAD) and partial ambiguity resolution (PAR). Decorrelation transformation could substantially amplify the biases in the phase measurements. The purpose of PAD is to find the optimum trade-off between decorrelation and worst-case bias amplification. The concept of PAR refers to the case where only a subset of the ambiguities can be fixed correctly to their integers in the integer least-squares (ILS) estimation system at high success rates. As a result, RTK solutions can be derived from these integer-fixed phase measurements. This is meaningful provided that the number of reliably resolved phase measurements is sufficiently large for least-square estimation of RTK solutions as well. Considering the GPS constellation alone, partially fixed measurements are often insufficient for positioning. The AR reliability is usually characterised by the AR success rate. In this contribution an AR validation decision matrix is firstly introduced to understand the impact of success rate. Moreover the AR risk probability is included into a more complete evaluation of the AR reliability. We use 16 ambiguity variance-covariance matrices with different levels of success rate to analyse the relation between success rate and AR risk probability. Next, the paper examines during the PAD process, how a bias in one measurement is propagated and amplified onto many others, leading to more than one wrong integer and to affect the success probability. Furthermore, the paper proposes a partial ambiguity fixing procedure with a predefined success rate criterion and ratio-test in the ambiguity validation process. In this paper, the Galileo constellation data is tested with simulated observations. Numerical results from our experiment clearly demonstrate that only when the computed success rate is very high, the AR validation can provide decisions about the correctness of AR which are close to real world, with both low AR risk and false alarm probabilities. The results also indicate that the PAR procedure can automatically chose adequate number of ambiguities to fix at given high-success rate from the multiple constellations instead of fixing all the ambiguities. This is a benefit that multiple GNSS constellations can offer.

Process based synthesis to evaluate design flexibility in airport terminal layout

Flexible design concept is a relatively new trend in airport terminal design which is believed to facilitate the ever changing needs of a terminal. Current architectural design processes become more complex every day because of the introduction of new building technologies where the concept of flexible airport terminal would apparently make the design process even more complex. Previous studies have demonstrated that ever growing aviation industry requires airport terminals to be planned, designed and constructed in such a way that should allow flexibility in design process. In order to adopt the philosophy of ‘design for flexibility’ architects need to address a wide range of differing needs. An appropriate integration of the process models, prior to the airport terminal design process, is expected to uncover the relationships that exist between spatial layout and their corresponding functions. The current paper seeks to develop a way of sharing space adjacency related information obtained from the Business Process Models (BPM) to assist in defining flexible airport terminal layouts. Critical design parameters are briefly investigated at this stage of research whilst reviewing the available design alternatives and an evaluation framework is proposed in the current paper. Information obtained from various design layouts should assist in identifying and defining flexible design matrices allowing architects to interpret and to apply those throughout the lifecycle of the terminal building.

Bismuth in interplanetary dust

Samples of a large (~60 µm) chondritic porous (CP) aggregate collected from the stratosphere have been analysed in detail by analytical electron microscopy (AEM). Previous studies of CP aggregates have shown that they are extraterrestrial in origin1–3 and may be related to cometary debris4. CP aggregates are dissimilar to C1 and C2 carbonaceous chondrite matrices and many have not been significantly altered by thermal or radiation processes since their assembly5. We report here a high concentration of Bi2O3 grains within the large CP aggregate designated W7029* A (~60 µm) and suggest they formed by rapid heating (~300 °C) of elemental Bi grains within the aggregate during atmospheric entry. We examine the possibilities for terrestrial Bi contamination of CP aggregate W7029* A but judge them unlikely. Enrichment of elemental Bi within components of extraterrestrial materials is consistent with a nebula condensation model6 and implies that Bi within CP aggregate W7029* A may have formed at a late stage of the condensation process.

Poorly characterized phases in C2M carbonaceous chondrites : proposed structures and significance

Poorly characterized phases (PCP's) may constitute up to 30 volume percent of some C2M carbonaceous chondrite matrices [1] and are an important key to an understanding of matrix evolution. PCPs are usually fine-grained (

Electron petrography of fine-grained matrix in the Karoonda C4 carbonaceous chondrite

The study of matrices of rare Type 4 carbonaceous chondrites can reveal important information on parent body rnetamorp~ic processes and provide a comparison with processes on parent bodies of ordinary chc-idrites. Reflectance spectra (Tholen, 1984) from the two largest asteroids in the asteroid belt, Ceres and Pallas, suggest that they may be metamorphosed carbonaceous chondrites. These two asteroids constitute - onethird of the mass in the asteroid belt implying that type 4-6 carbonaceous chondrites are poorly represented in the meteorite collection and may be of considerable importance. The matrix of the C4 chondrite Karoonda has been investigated using a JEOL 2000FX analytical electron microscope (AEM) with an attached Tracor-Northem TN5500 energy dispersive spectrometer (EDS). In previous studies (Scott and Taylor, 1985; Fitzgerald, 1979; Van Schmus, 1969), the petrography of the Karoonda matrix has been described as consisting largely of coarse-grained (50-200 urn in size) olivine and plagioclase (20-100 um in size), associated with micrometer sized magnetite and rare sulphides. AEM observations on matrix show that in addition to these large grains, there is a significant fraction (10 vol%) of interstitial fine grained phases « 5 urn). The mineralogy of these fine-grained phases differs in some respects from that of the coarser-grained matrix identified by optical and SEM techniques (Scott and Taylor, 1985; Fitzgerald, 1979; Van Schmus, 1969). I~ particular crystals of two compositionally distinct pyroxenes « 2 urn in size) have been identified which have not been previously observed in Karoonda by other analytical techniques. Thin film microanalyses (Mackinnon et al., 1986) of these two pyroxenes indicate compositions consistent with augite and low-Ca pyroxene (- Fs27). Fine-grained anhedral olivine « 2 urn size) is the most abundant phase with composition -Fa29' This composition is essentially indistinguishable from that determined for coarser-grained matrix olivines using an electron microprobe (Scott and Taylor, 1985; Fitzgerald, 1979; Van Schmus, 1969). All olivines are associated with subhedral magnetites « 1 urn size) which contain significant Cr (- 2%) and Al (- 1%) as was also noted for larger sized Karoonda magnetites by Delaney et al. (1985). It has recently been suggested (Burgess et al., 1987) on the basis of sulphur release profiles for S-isotope analyses of Karoonda that CaS04 (anhydrite) may be present. However, no sulphate phase has, as yet, been identified in the matrix of Karoonda. Low magnification contrast images suggest that Karoonda may have a significant porosity within the fine-grained matrix fraction. Most crystals are anhedral and do not show evidence for significant compaction. Individual grains often show single point contact with other grains which result in abundant intergranular voids. These voids frequently contain epoxy which was used as part of the specimen preparation procedure due to the friable nature of the bulk sample.

Interstellar titanium-oxides in interplanetary dust

Interstellar gas abundances (Clayton et al., 1986) suggest that titanium may be bound up in dust and indeed, excess titanium in carbonaceous chondrites is attributed to mixing of interstellar and Solar System materials (Morton, 1974). Fine-grained chondritic interplanetary dust particles (lOPs) of cometary origin are relatively pristine early Solar System materials (Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1987; Rietmeijer, 1987) and show chemical and mineralogical signatures related to a pre-solar or nebular origin. For example, large OtH ratios suggest a presolar or interstellar dust component in some chondritic lOPs(Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1987). Ti/Si ratios (normalized to bulk CI) in lOPs and carbonaceous chondrite matrices exceed solar abundances but are similar to dust from comet Halley (Jessberger et al., 1987). The Ti-distribution in chondritic lOPs shows major, small-scale « 0.1 urn) variations (Flynn et al., 1978) consistent with heterogeneously distributed Ti-bearingphases. Analytical electron microscope (AEM) studies, in fact, have identified platey grains of Ti-metal, Ti407 and Ti s09 in two different lOPs (Mackinnon and Rietmeijer, 1987). The occurrence of Ti407 was related in situ low-temperature aqueous alteration and therefore implied the presence of BaTi03 (Rietmeijer and Mackinnon, 1984). Yet, the presence ofTis09 in an lOp which shows no evidence of aqueous alteration (Rietmeijer.and McKay, 1986) requires a different interpretation. The distribution of Ti-oxides in chondritic lOPs were investigated with ultra-microtomed thin sections of fluffy chondri tic lOP U2011*B (lSC allocation U2011C2) using a lEOL 2000FX AEM operating at an accelerating voltage of 200kV and with an attached Tracor Northern TN5500 energy dispersive spectrometer.

The clay-size fraction of CI chondrites Alais and Orgueil : an AEM study

CI chondrites are used pervasively in the meteorite literature as a cosmochemical reference point for bulk compositions[1], isotope analyses[2] and, within certain models of meteorite evolution, as an important component of an alteration sequence within the carbonaceous chondrite subset[3]. More recently, the chemical variablity of CI chondrite matrices (which comprise >80% of the meteorite), has been cited in discussions about the "chondritic" nature of spectroscopic data from P/comet Halley missions[4] and of chemical data from related materials such as interplanetary dust particles[5]. Most CI chondrites have been studied as bulk samples(e.g. major and trace element abundances)and considerable effort has also been focussed on accessory phases such as magnetites, olivine, sulphates and carbonates [6-8]. A number of early studies showed that the primary constituents of CI matrices are layer silicates and the most definitive structural study on powdered samples identified two minerals: montmorillonite and serpentine[9]. In many cases, as with the study by Bass[9],the relative scarcity of most CI chondrites restricts such bulk analyses to the Orgueil meteorite. The electron microprobe/SEM has been used on petrographic sections to more precisely define the "bulk" composition of at least four CI matrices[3], and as recently summarised by McSween[3], these data define a compositional trend quite different to that obtained for CM chondrite matrices. These "defocussed-beam" microprobe analyses average major element compositions over matrix regions ~lOOµm in diameter and provide only an approximation to silicate mineral composition(s) because their grain sizes are much less than the diameter of the beam. In order to (a) more precisely define the major element compositions of individual mineral grains within CI matrices, and (b)complement previous TEM studies [11,12], we have undertaken an analytical electron microscopy (AEM) study of Alais and Orgueil matrices.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer : predicting which patients may benefit most

Background: Recent clinical studies have demonstrated an emerging subgroup of head and neck cancers that are virally mediated. This disease appears to be a distinct clinical entity with patients presenting younger and with more advanced nodal disease, having lower tobacco and alcohol exposure and highly radiosensitive tumours. This means they are living longer, often with the debilitating functional side effects of treatment. The primary objective of this study was to determine how virally mediated nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers respond to radiation therapy treatment. The aim was to determine risk categories and corresponding adaptive treatment management strategies to proactively manage these patients. Method/Results: 121 patients with virally mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal cancer who received radiotherapy treatment with curative intent between 2005 and 2010 were studied. Relevant patient demographics including age, gender, diagnosis, TNM stage, pre-treatment nodal size and dose delivered was recorded. Each patient’s treatment plan was reviewed to determine if another computed tomography (re-CT) scan was performed and at what time point (dose/fraction) this occurred. The justification for this re-CT was determined using four categories: tumour and/or nodal regression, weight loss, both or other. Patients who underwent a re-CT were further investigated to determine whether a new plan was calculated. If a re-plan was performed, the dosimetric effect was quantified by comparing dose volume histograms of planning target volumes and critical structures from the actual treatment delivered and the original treatment plan. Preliminary results demonstrated that 25/121 (20.7%) patients required a re-CT and that these re-CTs were performed between fractions 20 to 25 of treatment. The justification for these re-CTs consisted of a combination of tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss. 16/25 (13.2%) patients had a replan calculated. 9 (7.4%) of these replans were implemented clinically due to the resultant dosimetric effect calculated. The data collected from this assessment was statistically analysed to identify the major determining factors for patients to undergo a re-CT and/or replan. Specific factors identified included nodal size and timing of the required intervention (i.e. how when a plan is to be adapted). This data was used to generate specific risk profiles that will form the basis of a biologically guided adaptive treatment management strategy for virally mediated head and neck cancer. Conclusion: Preliminary data indicates that virally mediated head and neck cancers respond significantly during radiation treatment (tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss). Implications of this response are the potential underdosing or overdosing of tumour and/or surrounding critical structures. This could lead to sub-optimal patient outcomes and compromised quality of life. Consequently, the development of adaptive treatment strategies that improve organ sparing for this patient group is important to ensure delivery of the prescribed dose to the tumour volume whilst minimizing the dose received to surrounding critical structures. This could reduce side effects and improve overall patient quality of life. The risk profiles and associated adaptive treatment approaches developed in this study will be tested prospectively in the clinical setting in Phase 2 of this investigation.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Introduction: Clinical investigation has revealed a subgroup of head and neck cancers that are virally mediated. The relationship between nasopharyngeal cancer and Epstein Barr Virus (EBV) has long been established and more recently, the association between oropharyngeal cancer and Human Papillomavirus (HPV) has been revealed1,2 These cancers often present with nodal involvement and generally respond well to radiation treatment, evidenced by tumour regression1. This results in the need for treatment plan adaptation or re-planning in a subset of patients. Adaptive techniques allow the target region of the radiotherapy treatment plan to be altered in accordance with treatment-induced changes to ensure that under or over dosing does not occur3. It also assists in limiting potential overdosing of surrounding critical normal tissues4. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive radiotherapy trial. Method: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal (EBV positive) or oropharyngeal (HPV positive) cancers, receiving curative intent radiotherapy treatment were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node at diagnosis with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories to determine the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into risk categories; ≤35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥46mm (Group 3). Re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Conclusion: In this series, patients with virally mediated head and neck cancer and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of re-planning during a course of curative radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive radiotherapy study. ‘Real World’ Implications: This research identifies predictive factors for those patients with virally mediated head and neck cancer that will benefit most from treatment adaptation. This will assist in minimising the side effects experienced by these patients thereby improving their quality of life after treatment.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Purpose: Virally mediated head and neck cancers (VMHNC) often present with nodal involvement, and are generally considered radioresponsive, resulting in the need for a re-planning CT during radiotherapy (RT) in a subset of patients. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive RT trial. Methodology: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally-mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal (EBV positive) or oropharyngeal (HPV positive) cancers, receiving curative intent RT were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories for the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into 3 groups; ≤35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥46mm (Group 3). Re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Sample size did not allow statistical analysis to detect a significant difference or exclusion of a lack of difference between the 3 groups. Conclusion: In this series, patients with VMHNC and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of re-planning during a course of definitive radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive RT study.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Purpose: Virally mediated head and neck cancers (VMHNC) often present with nodal involvement, and are generally considered radioresponsive, resulting in the need for a re-planning CT during radiotherapy (RT) in a subset of patients. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive RT trial. Methodology: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally-mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal (EBV positive) or oropharyngeal (HPV positive) cancers, receiving curative intent RT were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories for the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into 3 groups; ≤35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥46mm (Group 3). Re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Sample size did not allow statistical analysis to detect a significant difference or exclusion of a lack of difference between the 3 groups. Conclusion: In this series, patients with VMHNC and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of re-planning during a course of definitive radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive RT study.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Purpose: Virally mediated head and neck cancers (VMHNC) often present with nodal involvement, and are generally considered radioresponsive, resulting in the need for plan adaptation during radiotherapy in a subset of patients. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on pre-treatment nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive radiotherapy trial. Methodology: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally-mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal cancers, receiving definitive radiotherapy were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node at diagnosis with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories for the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into 3 groups defined by pre-treatment nodal size; ≤ 35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥ 46mm (Group 3). Applying these groups to the patient cohort, re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Conclusion: In this series, patients with VMHNC and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of plan adaptation during a course of definitive radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive radiotherapy study.