979 resultados para Multivariable logistic regression
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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
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Severe leptospirosis affects predominantly males and presents a high susceptibility to hypokalemic acute renal failure. As hypokalemia and hyperkalemia induce severe complications, it is important to evaluate if the initial serum potassium is an independent risk factor for death in leptospirosis. The medical records of 1016 patients hospitalized with the diagnosis of leptospirosis were reviewed. The analysis was restricted to 442, according to the following criteria: male, 18 years or older, information about death or hospital discharge and recorded values of serum potassium, serum creatinine and duration of symptoms at admission. Potassium values lower than 3.5 mEq/L (hypoK), 3.5-5 mEq/L (normoK) and above 5 mEq/L (hyperK) were detected in 180, 245 and 17 patients, respectively. The death rate increased with serum potassium: 11.1% in the hypoK, 14.7% in the normoK and 47.1% in the hyperK group (p = 0.002). In a logistic regression model (normoK as referent), including age, creatinine and duration of symptoms, hypoK was not associated with increased death rate (odds ratio (OR) = 0.80; p > 0.1). On the other hand, hyperK showed a significant association with increased risk of death (OR = 3.95, p = 0.021). In conclusion, in this sample of men with leptospirosis initial serum potassium was positively and independently correlated with the risk of in-hospital death.
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The occurrence of human Toxocara infection was evaluated in three neighborhoods of the periphery of the Campinas municipality (Jardim Santa Mônica, Jardim São Marcos and Jardim Campineiro) in 1999. Forty residences and 138 residents were randomly selected by drawing lots and were submitted to a seroepidemiological survey, which included blood collection for the immunoenzymatic detection (ELISA) of anti-Toxocara antibodies and a blood count, and the application of a semi-structured questionnaire for the evaluation of epidemiological data. Significant levels of anti-Toxocara antibodies were detected in 23.9% of the 1999 samples. No significant difference in the frequency of infection according to age was observed. Environmental contamination with Toxocara eggs was observed in 12.3 and 14.0% of 57 soil samples collected in the same region in December 1998 and July 1999, respectively. Univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression of the data obtained from the questionnaires and of the results of the serological tests, suggest a significant influence of socioeconomic variables on the frequency of human infection with Toxocara under the conditions prevalent in the study area.
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A total of 868 (84.89%) patients diagnosed with tetanus were studied, out of the 1,024 tetanus patients hospitalized at Couto Maia Hospital (Salvador, Bahia, Brazil), during the period between 1986 and 1997. Of this group (n = 868), 63.5% (n = 551) were discharged, 35.4% (n = 307) died, and 1.1% (n = 10) were transferred. The average age of the deceased patients (38.73 ± 23.31 years) was significantly greater (p < 0.0001) than the age of those who survived (29.21 ± 20.05 years). Analyzing the variables of the logistic regression model with statistic significance (p £ 0.25) for univariate analysis, we observed a greater association of risk for worst prognosis (death) in patients aged ³ 51 years; time of illness < 48 hours; time of incubation < 168 hours; neck rigidity; spasms; opisthotonos; body temperature ³ 37.7 ºC; heart beat ³ 111 beats/minute; sympathetic hyperactivity and association with pneumonia. Among the group of those who survived, patients with 1 to 5 of those variables (n = 398; 76.8%) were more frequent, while among patients of the group of the deceased, 70.3% (n = 206) presented 6 to 10 of those variables, with a highly significant difference (p < 10-8). In conclusion, the indicators described provide early information that may guide the prognosis and medical and nurse care.
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INTRODUCTION: Obesity is an important risk factor for the development of diabetes, hypertension, coronary disease, left ventricular dysfunction, stroke and cardiac arrhythmias. Paradoxically, previous studies in patients undergoing elective coronary angioplasty showed a reduction in hospital and long-term mortality in obese patients. The relation with body mass index (BMI) has been less studied in the context of primary angioplasty. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of obesity on the results of ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction treated by primary angioplasty. METHODS: This was a study of 464 consecutive patients with ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary angioplasty, 78% male, mean age 61 +/- 13 years. We assessed in-hospital, 30-day and one-year mortality according to BMI. Patients were divided into three groups according to BMI: normal--18-24.9 kg/m2 (n = 171); overweight--25-29.9 kg/m2 (n = 204); and obese-- > 30 kg/m2 (n = 89). RESULTS: Obese patients were younger (ANOVA, p < 0.001) and more frequently male (p = 0.014), with more hypertension (p = 0.001) and dyslipidemia (p = 0.006). There were no differences in the prevalence of diabetes, previous cardiac history, heart failure on admission, anterior location, multivessel disease, peak total CK or medication prescribed, except that obese patients received more beta-blockers (p = 0.049). In-hospital mortality was 9.9% for patients with normal BMI, 3.4% for overweight patients and 6.7% for obese patients (p = 0.038). Mortality at 30 days was 11 4.4% and 7.8% (p = 0.032) and at one year 12.9%, 4.9% and 9% (p = 0.023), respectively. On univariate analysis, overweight was the only BMI category with a protective effect; however, after multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusted for confounding variables, none of the BMI categories could independently predict outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight patients had a better prognosis after primary angioplasty for ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction compared with other BMI categories, but this was dependent on other potentially confounding variables.
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INTRODUCTION: The significant risk of sudden arrhythmic death in patients with congestive heart failure and electromechanical ventricular dyssynchrony has led to increased use of combined cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator (CRT-D) devices. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the echocardiographic variables in patients undergoing CRT-D that predict the occurrence of appropriate therapies (AT) for ventricular tachyarrhythmia. METHODS: We analyzed 38 consecutive patients (mean age 60 +/- 12 years, 63% male) with echocardiographic evaluation before and 6 months after CRT-D implantation. Patients with AT were identified in a mean follow-up of 471 +/- 323 days. A standard echocardiographic study was performed including tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). Responders were defined as patients with improvement in NYHA class of < or = 1 in the first six months, and reverse remodeling as a decrease in left ventricular end-systolic volume of < or = 15% and/or an increase in left ventricular ejection fraction of > 25%. RESULTS: The responder rate was 74%, and the reverse remodeling rate was 55%. AT occurred in 21% of patients, who presented with greater left ventricular end-diastolic internal diameter (LVEDD) before implantation (86 +/- 8 vs. 76 +/- 11 mm, p = 0.03) and at 6 months (81 +/- 8 vs. 72 +/- 14 mm, p = 0.08), and increased left ventricular end-systolic internal diameter (66 +/- 14 vs. 56 +/- 14 mm, p = 0.03) and lower ejection fraction (24 +/- 6 vs. 34 +/- 14%, p = 0.08) at 6 months. In the group with AT, the responder rate was lower (38 vs. 83%, p = 0.03), without significant differences in reverse remodeling (38% for the AT group vs. 60%, p = 0.426) or in the other variables. By univariate analysis, predictors of AT were LVEDD before implantation and E' after implantation. Age, gender, ischemic etiology, use of antiarrhythmic drugs, reverse remodeling and the other echocardiographic parameters did not predict AT. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, both LVEDD before implantation (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.48, p = 0.019) and postimplantation E' (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.09-0.76, p = 0.014) remained as independent predictors of AT. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing CRT-D, episodes of ventricular tachyarrhythmia occur with high incidence, independently of echocardiographic response, with LVEDD before implantation and E' after implantation as the only independent predictors of AT in the medium-term. These results highlight the importance of combined devices with defibrillation capability.
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INTRODUCTION: Primary angioplasty is accepted as the preferred treatment for acute myocardial infarction in the first 12 hours. However, outcomes depend to a large extent on the volume of activity and experience of the center. Continuous monitoring of methods and results obtained is therefore crucial to quality control. OBJECTIVE: To describe the demographic, clinical and angiographic characteristics as well as in-hospital outcomes of patients undergoing primary PCI in a high-volume Portuguese center. We also aimed to identify variables associated with in-hospital mortality in this population. METHODS: This was a retrospective registry of consecutive primary PCIs performed at Santa Marta Hospital between January 2001 and August 2007. Demographic, clinical, and angiographic characteristics and in-hospital outcomes were analyzed. Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1157 patients were identified, mean age 61+/-12 years, 76% male. Mean pain-to-balloon time was 7.6 hours and primary angiographic success was 88%. Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.9%, or 5.5% if patients presenting in cardiogenic shock were excluded from the analysis. Previous history of heart failure, cardiogenic shock on admission, invasive ventilatory support, major hemorrhage, and age over 75 years were found to be associated with increased risk of in-hospital death. Conclusions: In this center primary PCI is effective and safe. Angiographic success rates and in-hospital mortality and morbidity are similar to other international registries. Patients at increased risk for adverse outcome can be identified by simple clinical characteristics such as advanced age, cardiogenic shock on admission, mechanical ventilation and major hemorrhage during hospitalization.
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Atrial electrical remodeling plays a part in recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF). It has been related to an increase in heterogeneity of atrial refractoriness that facilitates the occurrence of multiple reentry wavelets and vulnerability to AF. AIM: To examine the relationship between dispersion of atrial refractoriness (Disp_A) and vulnerability to AF induction (A_Vuln) in patients with clinical paroxysmal AF (PAF). METHODS: Thirty-six patients (22 male; age 55+/-13 years) with > or =1 year of history of PAF (no underlying structural heart disease--n=20, systemic hypertension--n=14, mitral valve prolapse--n=1, surgically corrected pulmonary stenosis--n=1), underwent electrophysiological study (EPS) while off medication. The atrial effective refractory period (AERP) was assessed at five different sites--high (HRA) and low (LRA) lateral right atrium, high interatrial septum (IAS), proximal (pCS) and distal (dCS) coronary sinus--during a cycle length of 600 ms. AERP was taken as the longest S1-S2 interval that failed to initiate a propagation response. Disp_A was calculated as the difference between the longest and shortest AERP. A_Vuln was defined as the ability to induce AF with 1-2 extrastimuli or with incremental atrial pacing (600-300 ms) from the HRA or dCS. The EPS included analysis of focal electrical activity based on the presence of supraventricular ectopic beats (spontaneous or with provocative maneuvers). The patients were divided into group A--AF inducible (n=25) and group B--AF not inducible (n=11). Disp_A was analyzed to determine any association with A_Vuln. Disp_A and A_Vuln were also examined in those patients with documented repetitive focal activity. Logistic regression was used to determine any association of the following variables with A_Vuln: age, systemic hypertension, left ventricular hypertrophy, left atrial size, left ventricular function, duration of PAF, documented atrial flutter/tachycardia and Disp_A. RESULTS: There were no significant differences between the groups with regard to clinical characteristics and echocardiographic data. AF was inducible in 71% of the patients and noninducible in 29%. Group A had greater Disp_A compared to group B (105+/-78 ms vs. 49+/-20 ms; p=0.01). Disp_A was >40 ms in 50% of the patients without A_Vuln and in 91% of those with A_Vuln (p=0.05). Focal activity was demonstrated in 14 cases (39%), 57% of them with A_Vuln. Disp_A was 56+/-23 ms in this group and 92+/-78 ms in the others (p=0.07). Using logistic regression, the only predictor of A_Vuln was Disp_A (p=0.05). CONCLUSION: In patients with paroxysmal AF, Disp_A is a major determinant of A_Vuln. Nevertheless, the degree of nonuniformity of AERP appears to be less important as an electrophysiological substrate for AF due to focal activation.
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Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.
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A cross-sectional study with internal comparison groups was conducted to describe sociodemographic characteristics, as well as verify the association between the type of antiretroviral treatment used and hyperglycemia and hyperlipidemia, with special attention to the use of HIV protease inhibitors. The data was obtained through an interview questionnaire, as well as blood and urine samples that were collected for the laboratory exams. A total of 418 patients were interviewed. 46 of these, however, met the exclusion criteria. The sample was therefore composed by 372 HIV positive patients, attended at the laboratory of the Correia Picanço State Hospital for the collection of blood, to estimate the HIV viral load and/or TCD4 cell counts from August to November 2000. The association between the variables was tested using the chi-square test and the p-value. A multiple logistic regression analysis was carried out to adjust for potential confounding factors. A greater frequency of patients with high glucose levels was observed among those making use of antiretroviral therapy without protease inhibitors, but the number of patients limited the comparisons. An association was verified between the total serum cholesterol level and the use of HIV protease inhibitors (p = 0.047) even after controlling for age. An association was also observed between the triglyceride levels and the use of HIV protease inhibitors, which remained after adjustment for age, sex and creatinine levels (p < 0.001). The levels of glucose and TSH, the presence of proteinuria and the practice of physical activity were not associated either with the levels of cholesterol or with the levels of tryglicerides thus they were not confounders of the associations described.
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The impact of atrial dispersion of refractoriness (Disp_A) in the inducibility and maintenance of atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been fully resolved. AIM: To study the Disp_A and the vulnerability (A_Vuln) for the induction of self-limited (<60 s) and sustained episodes of AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty-seven patients with paroxysmal AF (PAF): 29 patients without structural heart disease and 18 with hypertensive heart disease. Atrial effective refractory period (ERP) was assessed at five sites--right atrial appendage and low lateral right atrium, high interatrial septum, proximal and distal coronary sinus. We compared three groups: group A - AF not inducible (n=13); group B - AF inducible, self-limited (n=18); group C - AF inducible, sustained (n=16). Age, lone AF, hypertension, left atrial and left ventricular (LV) dimensions, LV systolic function, duration of AF history, atrial flutter/tachycardia, previous antiarrhythmics, and Disp_A were analysed with logistic regression to determine association with A_Vuln for AF inducibility. The ERP at different sites showed no differences among the groups. Group A had a lower Disp_A compared to group B (47+/-20 ms vs 82+/-65 ms; p=0.002), and when compared to group C (47+/-20 ms vs 80+/-55 ms; p=0.008). There was no significant difference in Disp_A between groups B and C. By means of multivariate regression analysis, the only predictor of A_Vuln was Disp_A (p=0.04). Conclusion: In patients with PAF, increased Disp_A represents an electrophysiological marker of A_Vuln. Inducibility of both self-limited and sustained episodes of AF is associated with similar values of Disp_A. These findings suggest that the maintenance of AF is influenced by additional factors.
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The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and to identify risk factors associated with Giardia lamblia infection in diarrheic children hospitalized for diarrhea in Goiânia, State of Goiás, Brazil. A cross-sectional study was conducted and a comprehensive questionnaire was administered to the child's primary custodian. Fixed effects logistic regression was used to determine the association between infection status for G. lamblia and host, sociodemographic, environmental and zoonotic risk factors. A total of 445 fecal samples were collected and processed by the DFA methodology, and G. lamblia cysts were present in the feces of 44 diarrheic children (9.9%). A variety of factors were found to be associated with giardiasis in these population: age of children (OR, 1.18; 90% CI, 1.0 - 1.36; p = 0.052), number of children in the household (OR 1.45; 90% CI, 1.13 - 1.86; p = 0.015), number of cats in the household (OR, 1.26; 90% CI, 1.03 -1.53; p = 0.059), food hygiene (OR, 2.9; 90% CI, 1.34 - 6.43; p = 0.024), day-care centers attendance (OR, 2.3; 90% CI, 1.20 - 4.36; p = 0.034), living on a rural farm within the past six months prior hospitalization (OR, 5.4; CI 90%, 1.5 - 20.1; p = 0.03) and the number of household adults (OR, 0.59; 90% CI, 0.42 - 0.83; p = 0.012). Such factors appropriately managed may help to reduce the annual incidence of this protozoal infection in the studied population.
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Interferon-beta (IFN-beta) therapy for multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with a potential for induction of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs). Because immune reactivity depends on changes in lipoprotein metabolism, we investigated whether plasma lipoprotein profiles could be associated with the development of NAbs. Thirty-one female MS patients treated with subcutaneously administered IFN-beta were included. Demographic and clinical characteristics were compared between NAbs response groups using t tests for continuous and logistic regression analysis and Fisher's exact tests for categorical data, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the effect of potential confounders. Patients who developed NAbs had lower apoE levels before treatment, 67 (47-74) mg/L median (interquartile range), and at the moment of NAb analysis, 53 (50-84) mg/L, in comparison to those who remained NAb-negative, 83 (68-107) mg/L, P = 0.03, and 76 (66-87) mg/L, P = 0.04, respectively. When adjusting for age and smoking for a one-standard deviation decrease in apoE levels, a 5.6-fold increase in the odds of becoming NAb-positive was detected: odds ratios (OR) 0.18 (95% CI 0.04-0.77), P = 0.04. When adjusting for apoE, smoking habit became associated with NAb induction: OR 5.6 (95% CI 1.3-87), P = 0.03. These results suggest that apoE-containing lipoprotein metabolism and, possibly, tobacco smoking may be associated with risk of NAb production in female MS patients treated with IFN-beta.
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Trabalho de projecto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação
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Trabalho de Projecto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatistica e Gestão de Informação.