Psychological cue use and implications for a clinical decision support system

Effective clinical decision making depends upon identifying possible outcomes for a patient, selecting relevant cues, and processing the cues to arrive at accurate judgements of each outcome's probability of occurrence. These activities can be considered as classification tasks. This paper describes a new model of psychological classification that explains how people use cues to determine class or outcome likelihoods. It proposes that clinicians respond to conditional probabilities of outcomes given cues and that these probabilities compete with each other for influence on classification. The model explains why people appear to respond to base rates inappropriately, thereby overestimating the occurrence of rare categories, and a clinical example is provided for predicting suicide risk. The model makes an effective representation for expert clinical judgements and its psychological validity enables it to generate explanations in a form that is comprehensible to clinicians. It is a strong candidate for incorporation within a decision support system for mental-health risk assessment, where it can link with statistical and pattern recognition tools applied to a database of patients. The symbiotic combination of empirical evidence and clinical expertise can provide an important web-based resource for risk assessment, including multi-disciplinary education and training. © 2002 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

Generation and performance of localised surface plasmons utilising nano-scale structured multi-layered thin films deposited upon D-shaped optical fiber

A new generation of surface plasmonic optical fibre sensors is fabricated using multiple coatings deposited on a lapped section of a single mode fibre. Post-deposition UV laser irradiation using a phase mask produces a nano-scaled surface relief grating structure, resembling nano-wires. The overall length of the individual corrugations is approximately 14 μm with an average full width half maximum of 100 nm. Evidence is presented to show that these surface structures result from material compaction created by the silicon dioxide and germanium layers in the multi-layered coating and the surface topology is capable of supporting localised surface plasmons. The coating compaction induces a strain gradient into the D-shaped optical fibre that generates an asymmetric periodic refractive index profile which enhances the coupling of the light from the core of the fibre to plasmons on the surface of the coating. Experimental data are presented that show changes in spectral characteristics after UV processing and that the performance of the sensors increases from that of their pre-UV irradiation state. The enhanced performance is illustrated with regards to change in external refractive index and demonstrates high spectral sensitivities in gaseous and aqueous index regimes ranging up to 4000 nm/RIU for wavelength and 800 dB/RIU for intensity. The devices generate surface plasmons over a very large wavelength range, (visible to 2 μm) depending on the polarization state of the illuminating light. © 2013 SPIE.

Quasi-pilot aided phase noise estimation for coherent optical OFDM systems

In this letter, a novel phase noise estimation scheme has been proposed for coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing systems, the quasi-pilot-aided method. In this method, the phases of transmitted pilot subcarriers are deliberately correlated to the phases of data subcarriers. Accounting for this correlation in the receiver allows the required number of pilots needed for a sufficient estimation and compensation of phase noise to be reduced by a factor of 2 in comparison with the traditional pilot-aided phase noise estimation method. We carried out numerical simulation of a 40 Gb/s single polarization transmission system, and the outcome of the investigation indicates that by applying quasi-pilot-aided phase estimation, only four pilot subcarriers are needed for effective phase noise compensation. © 2014 IEEE.

Comparison of bit error rate estimation methods for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission

In this letter, we experimentally study the statistical properties of a received QPSK modulated signal and compare various bit error rate (BER) estimation methods for coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing transmission. We show that the statistical BER estimation method based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols offers the most accurate estimate of the system performance.

Fitness and novelty in evolutionary art

In this paper the effects of introducing novelty search in evolutionary art are explored. Our algorithm combines fitness and novelty metrics to frame image evolution as a multi-objective optimisation problem, promoting the creation of images that are both suitable and diverse. The method is illustrated by using two evolutionary art engines for the evolution of figurative objects and context free design grammars. The results demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to obtain a larger set of fit images compared to traditional fitness-based evolution, regardless of the engine used.

Multi-Agent Information Processing and Adaptive Control in Global Telecommunication and Computer Networks

The problems and methods for adaptive control and multi-agent processing of information in global telecommunication and computer networks (TCN) are discussed. Criteria for controllability and communication ability (routing ability) of dataflows are described. Multi-agent model for exchange of divided information resources in global TCN has been suggested. Peculiarities for adaptive and intelligent control of dataflows in uncertain conditions and network collisions are analyzed.

Bit error rate estimation methods for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission

Coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (CO-OFDM) is an attractive transmission technique to virtually eliminate intersymbol interference caused by chromatic dispersion and polarization-mode dispersion. Design, development, and operation of CO-OFDM systems require simple, efficient, and reliable methods of their performance evaluation. In this paper, we demonstrate an accurate bit error rate estimation method for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols. By comparing with other known approaches, including data-aided and nondata-aided error vector magnitude, we show that the proposed method offers the most accurate estimate of the system performance for both single channel and wavelength division multiplexing QPSK CO-OFDM transmission systems. © 2014 IEEE.

A Note on Bayesian Estimation for the Negative-Binomial Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F15.

Nonparametric Estimation in the Class of Bisexual Processes with Population-Size Dependent Mating

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 62M05

Between global ambitions and local change:how multi-level cooperation advances norm implementation in weak states

The purpose of this article is to investigate in which ways multi-level actor cooperation advances national and local implementation processes of human rights norms in weak-state contexts. Examining the cases of women’s rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina and children’s rights in Bangladesh, we comparatively point to some advantages and disadvantages cooperative relations between international organisations, national governments and local NGOs can entail. Whereas these multi-level actor constellations (MACs) usually initiate norm implementation processes reliably and compensate governmental deficits, they are not always sustainable in the long run. If international organisations withdraw support from temporary missions or policy projects, local NGOs are not able to perpetuate implementation activities if state capacities have not been strengthened by MACs. Our aim is to highlight functions of local agency within multi-level cooperation and to critically raise sustainability issues in human rights implementation to supplement norm research in International Relations.

Monte Carlo Method for Reconstruction of Densities

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 65C05

Comparison of numerical bit error rate estimation methods in 112Gbs QPSK CO-OFDM transmission

We demonstrate an accurate BER estimation method for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols. Using a 112Gbs QPSK CO-OFDM transmission as an example, we show that this method offers the most accurate estimate of the system's performance in comparison with other known approaches.

Real-time temperature estimation for power MOSFETs considering thermal ageing effects

This paper presents a novel real-time power-device temperature estimation method that monitors the power MOSFET's junction temperature shift arising from thermal aging effects and incorporates the updated electrothermal models of power modules into digital controllers. Currently, the real-time estimator is emerging as an important tool for active control of device junction temperature as well as online health monitoring for power electronic systems, but its thermal model fails to address the device's ongoing degradation. Because of a mismatch of coefficients of thermal expansion between layers of power devices, repetitive thermal cycling will cause cracks, voids, and even delamination within the device components, particularly in the solder and thermal grease layers. Consequently, the thermal resistance of power devices will increase, making it possible to use thermal resistance (and junction temperature) as key indicators for condition monitoring and control purposes. In this paper, the predicted device temperature via threshold voltage measurements is compared with the real-time estimated ones, and the difference is attributed to the aging of the device. The thermal models in digital controllers are frequently updated to correct the shift caused by thermal aging effects. Experimental results on three power MOSFETs confirm that the proposed methodologies are effective to incorporate the thermal aging effects in the power-device temperature estimator with good accuracy. The developed adaptive technologies can be applied to other power devices such as IGBTs and SiC MOSFETs, and have significant economic implications.

A diszkrét kiválasztási modell becslése Cox-regresszióval (Parameter estimation for multinomial discrete choice model using Cox-regression)

Considering the so-called "multinomial discrete choice" model the focus of this paper is on the estimation problem of the parameters. Especially, the basic question arises how to carry out the point and interval estimation of the parameters when the model is mixed i.e. includes both individual and choice-specific explanatory variables while a standard MDC computer program is not available for use. The basic idea behind the solution is the use of the Cox-proportional hazards method of survival analysis which is available in any standard statistical package and provided a data structure satisfying certain special requirements it yields the MDC solutions desired. The paper describes the features of the data set to be analysed.

A method for solving LSM problems of small size in the AHP

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most popular methods used in Multi-Attribute Decision Making. It provides with ratio-scale measurements of the prioirities of elements on the various leveles of a hierarchy. These priorities are obtained through the pairwise comparisons of elements on one level with reference to each element on the immediate higher level. The Eigenvector Method (EM) and some distance minimizing methods such as the Least Squares Method (LSM), Logarithmic Least Squares Method (LLSM), Weighted Least Squares Method (WLSM) and Chi Squares Method (X2M) are of the tools for computing the priorities of the alternatives. This paper studies a method for generating all the solutions of the LSM problems for 3 × 3 matrices. We observe non-uniqueness and rank reversals by presenting numerical results.