Optimising market share and profit margin:SMDP-based tariff pricing under the smart grid paradigm

Smart grid technologies have given rise to a liberalised and decentralised electricity market, enabling energy providers and retailers to have a better understanding of the demand side and its response to pricing signals. This paper puts forward a reinforcement-learning-powered tool aiding an electricity retailer to define the tariff prices it offers, in a bid to optimise its retail strategy. In a competitive market, an energy retailer aims to simultaneously increase the number of contracted customers and its profit margin. We have abstracted the problem of deciding on a tariff price as faced by a retailer, as a semi-Markov decision problem (SMDP). A hierarchical reinforcement learning approach, MaxQ value function decomposition, is applied to solve the SMDP through interactions with the market. To evaluate our trading strategy, we developed a retailer agent (termed AstonTAC) that uses the proposed SMDP framework to act in an open multi-agent simulation environment, the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). An evaluation and analysis of the 2013 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC successfully selects sell prices that attract as many customers as necessary to maximise the profit margin. Moreover, during the competition, AstonTAC was the only retailer agent performing well across all retail market settings.

A mixture density network approach to modelling and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear control problems

In nonlinear and stochastic control problems, learning an efficient feed-forward controller is not amenable to conventional neurocontrol methods. For these approaches, estimating and then incorporating uncertainty in the controller and feed-forward models can produce more robust control results. Here, we introduce a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multi-variable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Desenvolvimento de um sistema de indicadores de desempenho para empreendimentos em construção civil, utilizando a abordagem macroergonômica

This paper prese nts the validation of the Performance Indicator System for Projects under Construction - SIDECC. The goal was to develop a system of performance indicators from the macroergonômica approach, con sidering criteria of usefulness , practicality and applicabilit y and the concept of continuous improveme nt in the construction industry . The validation process SIDECC consisted of three disti nct models . Modeling I corresponded to the theoretical development and valid ation of a system of indicators . Modeling II concern s the development and valida tion of multi - indicator system . For this modeling, we used the Mother of Use and Importance and Multivariate Analysis . Modeling III correspo nded to the validation situated , which consisted of a case study of a wo rk of construct ion of buildings , which were applied and anal yzed the results of modeling II . This work resulted in the development of an applied and tested for the construction of an integrated system of per formance indicators methodology , involving aspects of production , quality , e nvironmental, health and safety . It is inferred that the SIDECC can be applied, in full or in part , the construction companies as a whole, as we ll as in other economic sectors .

BDI reasoning with normative considerations

F. Meneguzzi thanks Fundaç ao de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (FAPERGS, Brazil) for the financial support through the ACI program (Grant ref. 3541-2551/12-0) and the ARD program (Grant ref. 12/0808-5), as well as Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) through the Universal Call (Grant ref. 482156/2013-9) and PQ fellowship (Grant ref. 306864/2013-4). N. Oren and W.W. Vasconcelos acknowledge the support of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC, UK) within the research project “Scrutable Autonomous Systems” (SAsSY11, Grant ref. EP/J012084/1).

How to trust a few among many

Acknowledgments Dr. Sensoy thanks to the U.S. Army Research Laboratory for its support under grant W911NF-14-1-0199 and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for its support under grant 113E238

The Communication of Inductive Inferences

Postprint

Investigating the Tradespace between Increased Automation and Optimal Manning on Aircraft Carrier Decks

With increasing prevalence and capabilities of autonomous systems as part of complex heterogeneous manned-unmanned environments (HMUEs), an important consideration is the impact of the introduction of automation on the optimal assignment of human personnel. The US Navy has implemented optimal staffing techniques before in the 1990's and 2000's with a "minimal staffing" approach. The results were poor, leading to the degradation of Naval preparedness. Clearly, another approach to determining optimal staffing is necessary. To this end, the goal of this research is to develop human performance models for use in determining optimal manning of HMUEs. The human performance models are developed using an agent-based simulation of the aircraft carrier flight deck, a representative safety-critical HMUE. The Personnel Multi-Agent Safety and Control Simulation (PMASCS) simulates and analyzes the effects of introducing generalized maintenance crew skill sets and accelerated failure repair times on the overall performance and safety of the carrier flight deck. A behavioral model of four operator types (ordnance officers, chocks and chains, fueling officers, plane captains, and maintenance operators) is presented here along with an aircraft failure model. The main focus of this work is on the maintenance operators and aircraft failure modeling, since they have a direct impact on total launch time, a primary metric for carrier deck performance. With PMASCS I explore the effects of two variables on total launch time of 22 aircraft: 1) skill level of maintenance operators and 2) aircraft failure repair times while on the catapult (referred to as Phase 4 repair times). It is found that neither introducing a generic skill set to maintenance crews nor introducing a technology to accelerate Phase 4 aircraft repair times improves the average total launch time of 22 aircraft. An optimal manning level of 3 maintenance crews is found under all conditions, the point at which any additional maintenance crews does not reduce the total launch time. An additional discussion is included about how these results change if the operations are relieved of the bottleneck of installing the holdback bar at launch time.

CHARACTERIZATION AND THERMAL-HYDRAULIC MODELING OF ENGINEERED BARRIERS FOR A CANADIAN DEEP GEOLOGICAL REPOSITORY FOR USED NUCLEAR FUEL

Within Canada there are more than 2.5 million bundles of spent nuclear fuel with another approximately 2 million bundles to be generated in the future. Canada, and every country around the world that has taken a decision on management of spent nuclear fuel, has decided on long-term containment and isolation of the fuel within a deep geological repository. At depth, a deep geological repository consists of a network of placement rooms where the bundles will be located within a multi-layered system that incorporates engineered and natural barriers. The barriers will be placed in a complex thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical-biological (THMCB) environment. A large database of material properties for all components in the repository are required to construct representative models. Within the repository, the sealing materials will experience elevated temperatures due to the thermal gradient produced by radioactive decay heat from the waste inside the container. Furthermore, high porewater pressure due to the depth of repository along with possibility of elevated salinity of groundwater would cause the bentonite-based materials to be under transient hydraulic conditions. Therefore it is crucial to characterize the sealing materials over a wide range of thermal-hydraulic conditions. A comprehensive experimental program has been conducted to measure properties (mainly focused on thermal properties) of all sealing materials involved in Mark II concept at plausible thermal-hydraulic conditions. The thermal response of Canada’s concept for a deep geological repository has been modelled using experimentally measured thermal properties. Plausible scenarios are defined and the effects of these scenarios are examined on the container surface temperature as well as the surrounding geosphere to assess whether they meet design criteria for the cases studied. The thermal response shows that if all the materials even being at dried condition, repository still performs acceptably as long as sealing materials remain in contact.

Human behaviour recognition in data-scarce domains

This paper presents the novel theory for performing multi-agent activity recognition without requiring large training corpora. The reduced need for data means that robust probabilistic recognition can be performed within domains where annotated datasets are traditionally unavailable. Complex human activities are composed from sequences of underlying primitive activities. We do not assume that the exact temporal ordering of primitives is necessary, so can represent complex activity using an unordered bag. Our three-tier architecture comprises low-level video tracking, event analysis and high-level inference. High-level inference is performed using a new, cascading extension of the Rao–Blackwellised Particle Filter. Simulated annealing is used to identify pairs of agents involved in multi-agent activity. We validate our framework using the benchmarked PETS 2006 video surveillance dataset and our own sequences, and achieve a mean recognition F-Score of 0.82. Our approach achieves a mean improvement of 17% over a Hidden Markov Model baseline.

A Collaborative Multiagent Framework based on Online Risk-Aware Planning and Decision-Making

Planning is an essential process in teams of multiple agents pursuing a common goal. When the effects of actions undertaken by agents are uncertain, evaluating the potential risk of such actions alongside their utility might lead to more rational decisions upon planning. This challenge has been recently tackled for single agent settings, yet domains with multiple agents that present diverse viewpoints towards risk still necessitate comprehensive decision making mechanisms that balance the utility and risk of actions. In this work, we propose a novel collaborative multi-agent planning framework that integrates (i) a team-level online planner under uncertainty that extends the classical UCT approximate algorithm, and (ii) a preference modeling and multicriteria group decision making approach that allows agents to find accepted and rational solutions for planning problems, predicated on the attitude each agent adopts towards risk. When utilised in risk-pervaded scenarios, the proposed framework can reduce the cost of reaching the common goal sought and increase effectiveness, before making collective decisions by appropriately balancing risk and utility of actions. 

Justified assessments of service provider reputation

Abstract Reputation, influenced by ratings from past clients, is crucial for providers competing for custom. For new providers with less track record, a few negative ratings can harm their chances of growing. In the JASPR project, we aim to look at how to ensure automated reputation assessments are justified and informative. Even an honest balanced review of a service provision may still be an unreliable predictor of future performance if the circumstances differ. For example, a service may have previously relied on different sub-providers to now, or been affected by season-specific weather events. A common way to ameliorate the ratings that may not reflect future performance is by weighting by recency. We argue that better results are obtained by querying provenance records on how services are provided for the circumstances of provision, to determine the significance of past interactions. Informed by case studies in global logistics, taxi hire, and courtesy car leasing, we are going on to explore the generation of explanations for reputation assessments, which can be valuable both for clients and for providers wishing to improve their match to the market, and applying machine learning to predict aspects of service provision which may influence decisions on the appropriateness of a provider. In this talk, I will give an overview of the research conducted and planned on JASPR. Speaker Biography Dr Simon Miles Simon Miles is a Reader in Computer Science at King's College London, UK, and head of the Agents and Intelligent Systems group. He conducts research in the areas of normative systems, data provenance, and medical informatics at King's, and has published widely and manages a number of research projects in these areas. He was previously a researcher at the University of Southampton after graduating from his PhD at Warwick. He has twice been an organising committee member for the Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems conference series, and was a member of the W3C working group which published standards on interoperable provenance data in 2013.

Uma abordagem evolucionária e espacial para o jogo da autorregulação de processos de trocas sociais em sistemas multiagentes

Interações sociais são frequentemente descritas como trocas sociais. Na literatura, trocas sociais em Sistemas Multiagentes são objeto de estudo em diversos contextos, nos quais as relações sociais são interpretadas como trocas sociais. Dentre os problemas estudados, um problema fundamental discutido na literatura e a regulação¸ ao de trocas sociais, por exemplo, a emergência de trocas equilibradas ao longo do tempo levando ao equilíbrio social e/ou comportamento de equilíbrio/justiça. Em particular, o problema da regulação de trocas sociais e difícil quando os agentes tem informação incompleta sobre as estratégias de troca dos outros agentes, especificamente se os agentes tem diferentes estratégias de troca. Esta dissertação de mestrado propõe uma abordagem para a autorregulacao de trocas sociais em sistemas multiagentes, baseada na Teoria dos Jogos. Propõe o modelo de Jogo de Autorregulacão ao de Processos de Trocas Sociais (JAPTS), em uma versão evolutiva e espacial, onde os agentes organizados em uma rede complexa, podem evoluir suas diferentes estratégias de troca social. As estratégias de troca são definidas através dos parâmetros de uma função de fitness. Analisa-se a possibilidade do surgimento do comportamento de equilíbrio quando os agentes, tentando maximizar sua adaptação através da função de fitness, procuram aumentar o numero de interações bem sucedidas. Considera-se um jogo de informação incompleta, uma vez que os agentes não tem informações sobre as estratégias de outros agentes. Para o processo de aprendizado de estratégias, utiliza-se um algoritmo evolutivo, no qual os agentes visando maximizar a sua função de fitness, atuam como autorregulares dos processos de trocas possibilitadas pelo jogo, contribuindo para o aumento do numero de interações bem sucedidas. São analisados 5 diferentes casos de composição da sociedade. Para alguns casos, analisa-se também um segundo tipo de cenário, onde a topologia de rede é modificada, representando algum tipo de mobilidade, a fim de analisar se os resultados são dependentes da vizinhança. Alem disso, um terceiro cenário é estudado, no qual é se determinada uma política de influencia, quando as medias dos parâmetros que definem as estratégias adotadas pelos agentes tornam-se publicas em alguns momentos da simulação, e os agentes que adotam a mesma estratégia de troca, influenciados por isso, imitam esses valores. O modelo foi implementado em NetLogo.

Uma abordagem evolucionária para o planejamento online de rotas para múltiplos robôs móveis em ambiente multiagente

O problema de planejamento de rotas de robôs móveis consiste em determinar a melhor rota para um robô, em um ambiente estático e/ou dinâmico, que seja capaz de deslocá-lo de um ponto inicial até e um ponto final, também em conhecido como estado objetivo. O presente trabalho emprega o uso de uma abordagem baseada em Algoritmos Genéticos para o planejamento de rotas de múltiplos robôs em um ambiente complexo composto por obstáculos fixos e obstáculos moveis. Através da implementação do modelo no software do NetLogo, uma ferramenta utilizada em simulações de aplicações multiagentes, possibilitou-se a modelagem de robôs e obstáculos presentes no ambiente como agentes interativos, viabilizando assim o desenvolvimento de processos de detecção e desvio de obstáculos. A abordagem empregada busca pela melhor rota para robôs e apresenta um modelo composto pelos operadores básicos de reprodução e mutação, acrescido de um novo operador duplo de refinamento capaz de aperfeiçoar as melhores soluções encontradas através da eliminação de movimentos inúteis. Além disso, o calculo da rota de cada robô adota um método de geração de subtrechos, ou seja, não calcula apenas uma unica rota que conecta os pontos inicial e final do cenário, mas sim várias pequenas subrotas que conectadas formam um caminho único capaz de levar o robô ao estado objetivo. Neste trabalho foram desenvolvidos dois cenários, para avaliação da sua escalabilidade: o primeiro consiste em um cenário simples composto apenas por um robô, um obstáculo movel e alguns obstáculos fixos; já o segundo, apresenta um cenário mais robusto, mais amplo, composto por múltiplos robôs e diversos obstáculos fixos e moveis. Ao final, testes de desempenho comparativos foram efetuados entre a abordagem baseada em Algoritmos Genéticos e o Algoritmo A*. Como critério de comparação foi utilizado o tamanho das rotas obtidas nas vinte simulações executadas em cada abordagem. A analise dos resultados foi especificada através do Teste t de Student.

Dynamic set pieces for CAMBADA team

Robotics is an emergent branch of engineering that involves the conception, manufacture, and control of robots. It is a multidisciplinary field that combines electronics, design, computer science, artificial intelligence, mechanics and nanotechnology. Its evolution results in machines that are able to perform tasks with some level of complexity. Multi-agent systems is a researching topic within robotics, thus they allow the solving of higher complexity problems, through the execution of simple routines. Robotic soccer allows the study and development of robotics and multiagent systems, as the agents have to work together as a team, having in consideration most problems found in our quotidian, as for example adaptation to a highly dynamic environment as it is the one of a soccer game. CAMBADA is the robotic soccer team belonging to the group of research IRIS from IEETA, composed by teachers, researchers and students of the University of Aveiro, which annually has as main objective the participation in the RoboCup, in the Middle Size League. The purpose of this work is to improve the coordination in set pieces situations. This thesis introduces a new behavior and the adaptation of the already existing ones in the offensive situation, as well as the proposal of a new positioning method in defensive situations. The developed work was incorporated within the competition software of the robots. Which allows the presentation, in this dissertation, of the experimental results obtained, through simulation software as well as through the physical robots on the laboratory.

Optimizing last mile delivery using public transport with multiagent based control

The majority of research work carried out in the field of Operations-Research uses methods and algorithms to optimize the pick-up and delivery problem. Most studies aim to solve the vehicle routing problem, to accommodate optimum delivery orders, vehicles etc. This paper focuses on green logistics approach, where existing Public Transport infrastructure capability of a city is used for the delivery of small and medium sized packaged goods thus, helping improve the situation of urban congestion and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. It carried out a study to investigate the feasibility of the proposed multi-agent based simulation model, for efficiency of cost, time and energy consumption. Multimodal Dijkstra Shortest Path algorithm and Nested Monte Carlo Search have been employed for a two-phase algorithmic approach used for generation of time based cost matrix. The quality of the tour is dependent on the efficiency of the search algorithm implemented for plan generation and route planning. The results reveal a definite advantage of using Public Transportation over existing delivery approaches in terms of energy efficiency.