PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Impaired verbal memory in Parkinson disease: relationship to prefrontal dysfunction and somatosensory discrimination

OBJECTIVE: To study the neurocognitive profile and its relationship to prefrontal dysfunction in non-demented Parkinson's disease (PD) with deficient haptic perception. METHODS: Twelve right-handed patients with PD and 12 healthy control subjects underwent thorough neuropsychological testing including Rey complex figure, Rey auditory verbal and figural learning test, figural and verbal fluency, and Stroop test. Test scores reflecting significant differences between patients and healthy subjects were correlated with the individual expression coefficients of one principal component, obtained in a principal component analysis of an oxygen-15-labeled water PET study exploring somatosensory discrimination that differentiated between the two groups and involved prefrontal cortices. RESULTS: We found significantly decreased total scores for the verbal learning trials and verbal delayed free recall in PD patients compared with normal volunteers. Further analysis of these parameters using Spearman's ranking correlation showed a significantly negative correlation of deficient verbal recall with expression coefficients of the principal component whose image showed a subcortical-cortical network, including right dorsolateral-prefrontal cortex, in PD patients. CONCLUSION: PD patients with disrupted right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex function and associated diminished somatosensory discrimination are impaired also in verbal memory functions. A negative correlation between delayed verbal free recall and PET activation in a network including the prefrontal cortices suggests that verbal cues and accordingly declarative memory processes may be operative in PD during activities that demand sustained attention such as somatosensory discrimination. Verbal cues may be compensatory in nature and help to non-specifically enhance focused attention in the presence of a functionally disrupted prefrontal cortex.

Molecular Surface Features in Modeling the HIV-1 RT Inhibitory Activity of 2-(2,6-Disubstituted phenyl)-3-(substituted pyrimidin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones

The human immunodeficiency virus-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitory activity of 2-(2,6-disubstituted phenyl)-3-(substituted pyrimidin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones have been analyzed using combinatorial protocol in multiple linear regression (CP-MLR) with several electronic and molecular surface area features of the compounds obtained from Molecular Operating Environment (MOE) software. The study has indicated the role of different charged molecular surface areas in modeling the inhibitory activity of the compounds. The derived models collectively suggested that the compounds should be compact without bulky substitutions on its peripheries for better HIV-1 RT inhibitory activity. It also emphasized the necessity of hydrophobicity and compact structural features for their activity. The scope of the descriptors identified for these analogues have been verified by extending the dataset with different 2-(disubstituted phenyl)-3-(substituted pyridin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones. The joint analysis of extended dataset highlighted the information content of identified descriptors in modeling the HIV-1 RT inhibitory activity of the compounds.

Non-ignorable loss to follow-up: correcting mortality estimates based on additional outcome ascertainment

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a common problem in many epidemiological studies. In antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mortality estimates can be biased if the LTFU mechanism is non-ignorable, that is, mortality differs between lost and retained patients. In this setting, routine procedures for handling missing data may lead to biased estimates. To appropriately deal with non-ignorable LTFU, explicit modeling of the missing data mechanism is needed. This can be based on additional outcome ascertainment for a sample of patients LTFU, for example, through linkage to national registries or through survey-based methods. In this paper, we demonstrate how this additional information can be used to construct estimators based on inverse probability weights (IPW) or multiple imputation. We use simulations to contrast the performance of the proposed estimators with methods widely used in HIV cohort research for dealing with missing data. The practical implications of our approach are illustrated using South African ART data, which are partially linkable to South African national vital registration data. Our results demonstrate that while IPWs and proper imputation procedures can be easily constructed from additional outcome ascertainment to obtain valid overall estimates, neglecting non-ignorable LTFU can result in substantial bias. We believe the proposed estimators are readily applicable to a growing number of studies where LTFU is appreciable, but additional outcome data are available through linkage or surveys of patients LTFU. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intelligence is related to specific processes in visual change detection: Fixed-links modeling of hit rate and reaction time

By means of fixed-links modeling, the present study identified different processes of visual short-term memory (VSTM) functioning and investigated how these processes are related to intelligence. We conducted an experiment where the participants were presented with a color change detection task. Task complexity was manipulated through varying the number of presented stimuli (set size). We collected hit rate and reaction time (RT) as indicators for the amount of information retained in VSTM and speed of VSTM scanning, respectively. Due to the impurity of these measures, however, the variability in hit rate and RT was assumed to consist not only of genuine variance due to individual differences in VSTM retention and VSTM scanning but also of other, non-experimental portions of variance. Therefore, we identified two qualitatively different types of components for both hit rate and RT: (1) non-experimental components representing processes that remained constant irrespective of set size and (2) experimental components reflecting processes that increased as a function of set size. For RT, intelligence was negatively associated with the non-experimental components, but was unrelated to the experimental components assumed to represent variability in VSTM scanning speed. This finding indicates that individual differences in basic processing speed, rather than in speed of VSTM scanning, differentiates between high- and low-intelligent individuals. For hit rate, the experimental component constituting individual differences in VSTM retention was positively related to intelligence. The non-experimental components of hit rate, representing variability in basal processes, however, were not associated with intelligence. By decomposing VSTM functioning into non-experimental and experimental components, significant associations with intelligence were revealed that otherwise might have been obscured.

Modeling the heterogeneous ice and gas coma of Comet 103P/Hartley 2

The spectacular images of Comet 103P/Hartley 2 recorded by the Medium Resolution Instrument (MRI) and High Resolution Instrument (HRI) on board of the Extrasolar Planet Observation and Deep Impact Extended Investigation (EPOXI) spacecraft, as the Deep Impact extended mission, revealed that its bi-lobed very active nucleus outgasses volatiles heterogeneously. Indeed, CO2 is the primary driver of activity by dragging out chunks of pure ice out of the nucleus from the sub-solar lobe that appear to be the main source of water in Hartley 2's coma by sublimating slowly as they go away from the nucleus. However, water vapor is released by direct sublimation of the nucleus at the waist without any significant amount of either CO2 or icy grains. The coma structure for a comet with such areas of diverse chemistry differs from the usual models where gases are produced in a homogeneous way from the surface. We use the fully kinetic Direct Simulation Monte Carlo model of Tenishev et al. (Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Davidsson, B. [2008]. Astrophys. J. 685, 659-677; Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Rubin, M. [2011]. Astrophys. J. 732, 104-120) applied to Comet 103P/Hartley 2 including sublimating icy grains to reproduce the observations made by EPOXI and ground-based measurements. A realistic bi-lobed nucleus with a succession of active areas with different chemistry was included in the model enabling us to study in details the coma of Hartley 2. The different gas production rates from each area were found by fitting the spectra computed using a line-by-line non-LTE radiative transfer model to the HRI observations. The presence of icy grains with long lifetimes, which are pushed anti-sunward by radiation pressure, explains the observed OH asymmetry with enhancement on the night side of the coma.

Parsing for agile modeling

In order to analyze software systems, it is necessary to model them. Static software models are commonly imported by parsing source code and related data. Unfortunately, building custom parsers for most programming languages is a non-trivial endeavour. This poses a major bottleneck for analyzing software systems programmed in languages for which importers do not already exist. Luckily, initial software models do not require detailed parsers, so it is possible to start analysis with a coarse-grained importer, which is then gradually refined. In this paper we propose an approach to "agile modeling" that exploits island grammars to extract initial coarse-grained models, parser combinators to enable gradual refinement of model importers, and various heuristics to recognize language structure, keywords and other language artifacts.

Ethnic Minority Children’s Active Commuting to School and Association with Physical Activity and Pedestrian Safety Behaviors

Background: Children's active commuting to school, i.e. walking or cycling to school, was associated with greater moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, although studies among ethnic minorities are sparse. Objectives: Among a low-income, ethnic minority sample of fourth grade students from eight public schools, we examined (1) correlates of active commuting to school and (2) the relationship between active commuting to school and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of baseline measurements from a sample of participants (n=149) aged 9-12 years from a walk to school intervention study in Houston, Texas. The primary outcome was the weekly rate of active commuting to school. Daily moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, measured by accelerometers, was a secondary outcome. Child self-efficacy (alpha=0.75), parent self-efficacy (alpha=0.88), and parent outcome expectations (alpha=0.78) were independent variables. Participant characteristics (age, gender, race/ethnicity, distance from home to school, acculturation, and BMI percentile) were independent sociodemographic variables. We used mixed-model regression analyses to account for clustering by school and a stepwise procedure with backward elimination of non-significant interactions and covariates to identify significant moderators and predictors. School-level observations of student pedestrians were assessed and compared using chi-square tests of independence. Results: Among our sample, which was 61.7% Latino, the overall rate of active commuting to school was 43%. In the mixed model for active commuting to school, parent self-efficacy (std. beta = 0.18, p=0.018) and age (std. beta = 0.18, p=0.018) were positively related. Latino students had lower rates of active commuting to school than non-Latinos ( 16.5%, p=0.040). Distance from home to school was inversely related to active commuting to school (std. beta = 0.29, p<0.001). In the mixed model for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, active commuting to school was positively associated (std. beta = 0.31, p <0.001). Among the Latino subsample, child acculturation was negatively associated with active commuting to school (std. beta = -0.23, p=0.01). With regard to school-level pedestrian safety observations, 37% of students stopped at the curb and 2.6% looked left-right-left before crossing the street. Conclusion: Although still below national goals, the rate of active commuting was relatively high, while the rate of some pedestrian safety behaviors was low among this low-income, ethnic minority population. Programs and policies to encourage safe active commuting to school are warranted and should consider the influence of parents, acculturation, and ethnicity.

BRAIN ACTIVATION AND CONNECTIVITY IN NON-DISABLED MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS PATIENTS

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common demyelinating disease affecting the central nervous system. There is no cure for MS and current therapies have limited efficacy. While the majority of individuals with MS develop significant clinical disability, a subset experiences a disease course with minimal impairment even in the presence of significant apparent tissue damage on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The current studies combined functional MRI and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to elucidate brain mechanisms associated with lack of clinical disability in patients with MS. Recent evidence has implicated cortical reorganization as a mechanism to limit the clinical manifestation of the disease. Functional MRI was used to test the hypothesis that non-disabled MS patients (Expanded Disability Status Scale ≤ 1.5) show increased recruitment of cognitive control regions (dorsolateral prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortex) while performing sensory, motor and cognitive tasks. Compared to matched healthy controls, patients increased activation of cognitive control brain regions when performing non-dominant hand movements and the 2-back working memory task. Using dynamic causal modeling, we tested whether increased cognitive control recruitment is associated with alterations in connectivity in the working memory functional network. Patients exhibited similar network connectivity to that of control subjects when performing working memory tasks. We subsequently investigated the integrity of major white matter tracts to assess structural connectivity and its relation to activation and functional integration of the cognitive control system. Patients showed substantial alterations in callosal, inferior and posterior white matter tracts and less pronounced involvement of the corticospinal tracts and superior longitudinal fasciculi (SLF). Decreased structural integrity within the right SLF in patients was associated with decreased performance, and decreased activation and connectivity of the cognitive control system when performing working memory tasks. These studies suggest that patient with MS without clinical disability increase cognitive control system recruitment across functional domains and rely on preserved functional and structural connectivity of brain regions associated with this network. Moreover, the current studies show the usefulness of combining brain activation data from functional MRI and structural connectivity data from DTI to improve our understanding of brain adaptation mechanisms to neurological disease.

Serious suicidal behaviors: socio-demographic and clinical features in a multinational, multicenter sample

BACKGROUND: Declared suicidal intent and physical danger are both considered important components in defining suicidal behaviors (SB). AIMS: 1) To investigate characteristics of serious suicidal behaviors (SSB), defined by either suicidal intent or lethality; 2) To determine any difference in terms of socio-demographic, clinical and/or service usage variables between SSB and non-serious suicidal behaviors (NSSB). METHODS: A total of 2631 contacts for SB were registered in the context of the MONSUE (Monitoring Suicidal Behavior in Europe) study project. Demographic and clinical information were registered. ICD-10 was used for classifying data about psychiatric diagnoses, methods used for SB and injuries reported. Clear intentionality, high-case fatality methods and serious injuries all defined SSB (n = 1169; 44.4%) RESULTS: SSB were more often preceded by a contact with an inpatient (either psychiatric or somatic) rather than an outpatient service. Among those having a previous history of SB, SSB subjects had fewer contacts with health services before the previous attempt. The strongest predictors for SSB appeared to be older age and not professing a religion. CONCLUSION: Many of the known factors contributing to the risk of completed suicide were also present for SSB. Our findings on service usage by suicide attempters show which aspects of mental health services should be strengthened in order to improve suicide prevention.

Bicyclo[3.2.1]amide-DNA: a chiral, non-chiroselective base-pairing system

The design, synthesis and base-pairing properties of bicyclo[3.2.1]amide-(bca)DNA, a novel phosphodiester based DNA analogue, is reported. This analogue consists of a conformationally constrained backbone entity which emulates a B-DNA geometry, to which the nucleobases were attached via an extended, acyclic amide linker. Homobasic adenine-containing bca-decamers form duplexes with complementary oligonucleotides containing the bca-, the DNA the RNA and, surprisingly, also the L-RNA backbone. UV- and CD-spectroscopic investigations revealed the duplexes with D- or L-complement to be of similar stability and enantiomorphic in structure. Bca-oligonucleotides containing all four bases form strictly antiparallel, left-handed complementary duplexes with itself and complementary DNA but not with RNA. Base-mismatch discrimination is comparable to that of DNA while the overall thermal stabilities of bca-oligonucleotide duplexes are inferior relative to that of DNA or RNA. A detailed molecular modeling study of left- and right-handed bca-DNA containing duplexes showed only minor changes in the backbone structure and revealed a structural switch around the base-linker unit to be responsible for the generation of enantiomorphic duplex structures. The obtained data are discussed with respect to the structural and energetic role of the ribofuranose entities in DNA and RNA association

The Influence of Pre-stimulus EEG Activity on Reaction Time During a Verbal Sternberg Task is Related to Musical Expertise

Abstract Previous work highlighted the possibility that musical training has an influence on cognitive functioning. The suggested reason for this influence is the strong recruitment of attention, planning, and working memory functions during playing a musical instrument. The purpose of the present work was twofold, namely to evaluate the general relationship between pre-stimulus electrophysiological activity and cognition, and more specifically the influence of musical expertise on working memory functions. With this purpose in mind, we used covariance mapping analyses to evaluate whether pre-stimulus electroencephalographic activity is predictive for reaction time during a visual working memory task (Sternberg paradigm) in musicians and non-musicians. In line with our hypothesis, we replicated previous findings pointing to a general predictive value of pre-stimulus activity for working memory performance. Most importantly, we also provide first evidence for an influence of musical expertise on working memory performance that could distinctively be predicted by pre-stimulus spectral power. Our results open novel perspectives for better comprehending the vast influences of musical expertise on cognition.

Modeling the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols during CalNex 2010

Four different literature parameterizations for the formation and evolution of urban secondary organic aerosol (SOA) frequently used in 3-D models are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles metropolitan region during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle- and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA that formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model–measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model–measurement agreement for mass concentration. The results from the three parameterizations show large differences (e.g., a factor of 3 in SOA mass) and are not well constrained, underscoring the current uncertainties in this area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the recent parameterizations overpredict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and especially global modeling. However, reducing IVOC emissions by one-half in the model to better match recent IVOC measurements improves SOA predictions at these long photochemical ages. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (naphthalenes) contribute 0.7% of the modeled SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16–27, 35–61, and 19–35 %, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71(+-3) %. The relative contribution of each source is uncertain by almost a factor of 2 depending on the parameterization used. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μgm-3 is also present due to the long-distance transport of highly aged OA, likely with a substantial contribution from regional biogenic SOA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies and which is higher on weekends. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, one third of which is likely to be non-fossil.

Elucidating the Functional Relationship Between Working Memory Capacity and Psychometric Intelligence: A Fixed-Links Modeling Approach for Experimental Repeated-Measures Designs

Numerous studies reported a strong link between working memory capacity (WMC) and fluid intelligence (Gf), although views differ in respect to how close these two constructs are related to each other. In the present study, we used a WMC task with five levels of task demands to assess the relationship between WMC and Gf by means of a new methodological approach referred to as fixed-links modeling. Fixed-links models belong to the family of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and are of particular interest for experimental, repeated-measures designs. With this technique, processes systematically varying across task conditions can be disentangled from processes unaffected by the experimental manipulation. Proceeding from the assumption that experimental manipulation in a WMC task leads to increasing demands on WMC, the processes systematically varying across task conditions can be assumed to be WMC-specific. Processes not varying across task conditions, on the other hand, are probably independent of WMC. Fixed-links models allow for representing these two kinds of processes by two independent latent variables. In contrast to traditional CFA where a common latent variable is derived from the different task conditions, fixed-links models facilitate a more precise or purified representation of the WMC-related processes of interest. By using fixed-links modeling to analyze data of 200 participants, we identified a non-experimental latent variable, representing processes that remained constant irrespective of the WMC task conditions, and an experimental latent variable which reflected processes that varied as a function of experimental manipulation. This latter variable represents the increasing demands on WMC and, hence, was considered a purified measure of WMC controlled for the constant processes. Fixed-links modeling showed that both the purified measure of WMC (β = .48) as well as the constant processes involved in the task (β = .45) were related to Gf. Taken together, these two latent variables explained the same portion of variance of Gf as a single latent variable obtained by traditional CFA (β = .65) indicating that traditional CFA causes an overestimation of the effective relationship between WMC and Gf. Thus, fixed-links modeling provides a feasible method for a more valid investigation of the functional relationship between specific constructs.

Varying expectancies and attention bias in phobic and non-phobic individuals.

Phobic individuals display an attention bias to phobia-related information and biased expectancies regarding the likelihood of being faced with such stimuli. Notably, although attention and expectancy biases are core features in phobia and anxiety disorders, these biases have mostly been investigated separately and their causal impact has not been examined. We hypothesized that these biases might be causally related. Spider phobic and low spider fearful control participants performed a visual search task in which they specified whether the deviant animal in a search array was a spider or a bird. Shorter reaction times (RTs) for spiders than for birds in this task reflect an attention bias toward spiders. Participants' expectancies regarding the likelihood of these animals being the deviant in the search array were manipulated by presenting verbal cues. Phobics were characterized by a pronounced and persistent attention bias toward spiders; controls displayed slower RTs for birds than for spiders only when spider cues had been presented. More important, we found RTs for spider detections to be virtually unaffected by the expectancy cues in both groups, whereas RTs for bird detections showed a clear influence of the cues. Our results speak to the possibility that evolution has formed attentional systems that are specific to the detection of phylogenetically salient stimuli such as threatening animals; these systems may not be as penetrable to variations in (experimentally induced) expectancies as those systems that are used for the detection of non-threatening stimuli. In sum, our findings highlight the relation between expectancies and attention engagement in general. However, expectancies may play a greater role in attention engagement in safe environments than in threatening environments.