Evaluation of the Met Office global forecast model using Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) data

Simulations of the top-of-atmosphere radiative-energy budget from the Met Office global numerical weather-prediction model are evaluated using new data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on board the Meteosat-8 satellite. Systematic discrepancies between the model simulations and GERB measurements greater than 20 Wm-2 in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and greater than 60 Wm-2 in reflected short-wave radiation (RSR) are identified over the period April-September 2006 using 12 UTC data. Convective cloud over equatorial Africa is spatially less organized and less reflective than in the GERB data. This bias depends strongly on convective-cloud cover, which is highly sensitive to changes in the model convective parametrization. Underestimates in model OLR over the Gulf of Guinea coincide with unrealistic southerly cloud outflow from convective centres to the north. Large overestimates in model RSR over the subtropical ocean, greater than 50 Wm-2 at 12 UTC, are explained by unrealistic radiative properties of low-level cloud relating to overestimation of cloud liquid water compared with independent satellite measurements. The results of this analysis contribute to the development and improvement of parametrizations in the global forecast model.

Biologically motivated model for object detection and identification in real-world scenes

The classical computer vision methods can only weakly emulate some of the multi-level parallelisms in signal processing and information sharing that takes place in different parts of the primates’ visual system thus enabling it to accomplish many diverse functions of visual perception. One of the main functions of the primates’ vision is to detect and recognise objects in natural scenes despite all the linear and non-linear variations of the objects and their environment. The superior performance of the primates’ visual system compared to what machine vision systems have been able to achieve to date, motivates scientists and researchers to further explore this area in pursuit of more efficient vision systems inspired by natural models. In this paper building blocks for a hierarchical efficient object recognition model are proposed. Incorporating the attention-based processing would lead to a system that will process the visual data in a non-linear way focusing only on the regions of interest and hence reducing the time to achieve real-time performance. Further, it is suggested to modify the visual cortex model for recognizing objects by adding non-linearities in the ventral path consistent with earlier discoveries as reported by researchers in the neuro-physiology of vision.

A high-order arbitrarily unstructured finite-volume model of the global atmosphere: tests solving the shallow-water equations

Simulations of the global atmosphere for weather and climate forecasting require fast and accurate solutions and so operational models use high-order finite differences on regular structured grids. This precludes the use of local refinement; techniques allowing local refinement are either expensive (eg. high-order finite element techniques) or have reduced accuracy at changes in resolution (eg. unstructured finite-volume with linear differencing). We present solutions of the shallow-water equations for westerly flow over a mid-latitude mountain from a finite-volume model written using OpenFOAM. A second/third-order accurate differencing scheme is applied on arbitrarily unstructured meshes made up of various shapes and refinement patterns. The results are as accurate as equivalent resolution spectral methods. Using lower order differencing reduces accuracy at a refinement pattern which allows errors from refinement of the mountain to accumulate and reduces the global accuracy over a 15 day simulation. We have therefore introduced a scheme which fits a 2D cubic polynomial approximately on a stencil around each cell. Using this scheme means that refinement of the mountain improves the accuracy after a 15 day simulation. This is a more severe test of local mesh refinement for global simulations than has been presented but a realistic test if these techniques are to be used operationally. These efficient, high-order schemes may make it possible for local mesh refinement to be used by weather and climate forecast models.

Comparison of stochastic parametrization approaches in a single-column model

We discuss and test the potential usefulness of single-column models (SCMs) for the testing of stchastic physics schemes that have been proposed for use in general circulation models (GCMs). We argue that although single column tests cannot be definitive in exposing the full behaviour of a stochastic method in the full GCM, and although there are differences between SCM testing of deterministic and stochastic methods, nonetheless SCM testing remains a useful tool. It is necessary to consider an ensemble of SCM runs produced by the stochastic method. These can be usefully compared to deterministic ensembles describing initial condition uncertainty and also to combinations of these (with structural model changes) into poor man's ensembles. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an SCM experiment recently developed by the GCSS community, simulating the transitions between active and suppressed periods of tropical convection.

Using TerraSAR-X data for improved urban flood model validation.

Urban flood inundation models require considerable data for their parameterisation, calibration and validation. TerraSAR-X should be suitable for urban flood detection because of its high resolution in stripmap/spotlight modes. The paper describes ongoing work on a project to assess how well TerraSAR-X can detect flooded regions in urban areas, and how well these can constrain the parameters of an urban flood model. The study uses a TerraSAR-X image of a 1-in-150 year flood near Tewkesbury, UK , in 2007, for which contemporaneous aerial photography exists for validation. The DLR SETES SAR simulator was used in conjunction with LiDAR data to estimate regions of the image in which water would not be visible due to shadow or layover caused by buildings and vegetation. An algorithm for the delineation of flood water in urban areas is described, together with its validation using the aerial photographs.