The application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality

This thesis presents an investigation into the application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality. Existing biological methods for reporting river water quality are critically evaluated, and the adoption of a discrete biological classification scheme advocated. Reasoning methods for managing uncertainty are explained, in which the Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi are cited as primary numerical schemes. Elicitation of qualitative knowledge on benthic invertebrates is described. The specificity of benthic response to changes in water quality leads to the adoption of a sensor model of data interpretation, in which a reference set of taxa provide probabilistic support for the biological classes. The significance of sensor states, including that of absence, is shown. Novel techniques of directly eliciting the required uncertainty measures are presented. Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi were used to combine the evidence provided by the sensors. The performance of these automatic classifiers was compared with the expert's own discrete classification of sampled sites. Variations of sensor data weighting, combination order and belief representation were examined for their effect on classification performance. The behaviour of the calculi under evidential conflict and alternative combination rules was investigated. Small variations in evidential weight and the inclusion of evidence from sensors absent from a sample improved classification performance of Bayesian belief and support for singleton hypotheses. For simple support, inclusion of absent evidence decreased classification rate. The performance of Dempster-Shafer classification using consonant belief functions was comparable to Bayesian and singleton belief. Recommendations are made for further work in biological classification using uncertain reasoning methods, including the combination of multiple-expert opinion, the use of Bayesian networks, and the integration of classification software within a decision support system for water quality assessment.

A rationale for the optimisation by computer methods of the efficient use of metals and materials

The aim of the research project was to gain d complete and accurate accounting of the needs and deficiencies of materials selection and design data, with particular attention given to the feasibility of a computerised materials selection system that would include application analysis, property data and screening techniques. The project also investigates and integrates the three major aspects of materials resources, materials selection and materials recycling. Consideration of the materials resource base suggests that, though our discovery potential has increased, geologic availability is the ultimate determinant and several metals may well become scarce at the same time, thus compounding the problem of substitution. With around 2- to 20- million units of engineering materials data, the use of a computer is the only logical answer for scientific selection of materials. The system developed at Aston is used for data storage, mathematical computation and output. The system enables programs to be run in batch and interactive (on-line) mode. The program with modification can also handle such variables as quantity of mineral resources, energy cost of materials and depletion and utilisation rates of strateqic materials. The work also carries out an in-depth study of copper recycling in the U.K. and concludes that, somewhere in the region of 2 million tonnes of copper is missing from the recycling cycle. It also sets out guidelines on product design and conservation policies from the recyclability point of view.

Pre-conception care : current practice and methods of provision

This thesis examines the present provisions for pre-conception care and the views of the providers of services. Pre-conception care is seen by some clinicians and health educators as a means of making any necessary changes in life style, corrections to imbalances in the nutritional status of the prospective mother (and father) and the assessment of any medical problems, thus maximizing the likelihood of the normal development of the baby. Pre-conception care may be described as a service to bridge the gap between the family planning clinic and the first ante-natal booking appointment. There were three separate foci for the empirical research - the Foresight organisation (a charity which has pioneered pre-conception care in Britain); the pre-conception care clinic at the West London Hospital, Hammersmith; and the West Midlands Regional Health Authority. The six main sources of data were: twenty five clinicians operating Foresight pre-conception clinics, couples attending pre-conception clinics, committee members of the Foresight organisation, staff of the West London Hospital pre-conception clinic, Hammersmith, District Health Education Officers working in the West Midlands Regional Health Authority and the members of the Ante-Natal Care Action Group, a sub-group of the Regional Health Advisory Group on Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine. A range of research methods were adopted. These were as follows: questionnaires and report forms used in co-operation with the Foresight clinicians, interviews, participant observation discussions and informal meetings and, finally, literature and official documentation. The research findings illustrated that pre-conception care services provided at the predominantly private Foresight clinics were of a rather `ad hoc' nature. The type of provision varied considerably and clearly reflected the views held by its providers. The protocol which had been developed to assist in the standardization of results was not followed by the clinicians. The pre-conception service provided at the West London Hospital shared some similarities in its approach with the Foresight provision; a major difference was that it did not advocate the use of routine hair trace metal analysis. Interviews with District Health Education Officers and with members of the Ante Natal Care Action Group revealed a tentative and cautious approach to pre-conception care generally and to the Foresight approach in particular. The thesis concludes with a consideration of the future of pre-conception care and the prospects for the establishment of a comprehensive pre-conception care service.

An investigation into the steady state performance of several methods of series compensating electricity transmission lines

There are several methods of providing series compensation for transmission lines using power electronic switches. Four methods of series compensation have been examined in this thesis, the thyristor controlled series capacitor, a voltage sourced inverter series compensator using a capacitor as the series element, a current sourced inverter series compensator and a voltage sourced inverter using an inductor as the series element. All the compensators examined will provide a continuously variable series voltage which is controlled by the switching of the electronic switches. Two of the circuits will offer both capacitive and inductive compensation, the thyristor controlled series capacitor and the current sourced inverter series compensator. The other two will produce either capacitive or inductive series compensation. The thyristor controlled series capacitor offers the widest range of series compensation. However, there is a band of unavailable compensation between 0 and 1 pu capacitive compensation. Compared to the other compensators examined the harmonic content of the compensating voltage is quite high. An algebraic analysis showed that there is more than one state the thyristor controlled series capacitor can operate in. This state has the undesirable effect of introducing large losses. The voltage sourced inverter series compensator using a capacitor as the series element will provide only capacitive compensation. It uses two capacitors which increase the cost of the compensator significantly above the other three. This circuit has the advantage of very low harmonic distortion. The current sourced inverter series compensator will provide both capacitive and inductive series compensation. The harmonic content of the compensating voltage is second only to the voltage sourced inverter series compensator using a capacitor as the series element. The voltage sourced inverter series compensator using an inductor as the series element will only provide inductive compensation, and it is the least expensive compensator examined. Unfortunately, the harmonics introduced by this circuit are considerable.

An inter-laboratory validation of methods of lipid peroxidation measurement in UVA-treated human plasma samples

Lipid peroxidation products like malondialdehyde, 4-hydroxynonenal and F(2)-isoprostanes are widely used as markers of oxidative stress in vitro and in vivo. This study reports the results of a multi-laboratory validation study by COST Action B35 to assess inter-laboratory and intra-laboratory variation in the measurement of lipid peroxidation. Human plasma samples were exposed to UVA irradiation at different doses (0, 15 J, 20 J), encoded and shipped to 15 laboratories, where analyses of malondialdehyde, 4-hydroxynonenal and isoprostanes were conducted. The results demonstrate a low within-day-variation and a good correlation of results observed on two different days. However, high coefficients of variation were observed between the laboratories. Malondialdehyde determined by HPLC was found to be the most sensitive and reproducible lipid peroxidation product in plasma upon UVA treatment. It is concluded that measurement of malondialdehyde by HPLC has good analytical validity for inter-laboratory studies on lipid peroxidation in human EDTA-plasma samples, although it is acknowledged that this may not translate to biological validity.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Practical methods of tracking of nonstationary time series applied to real-world data

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Two real world data sets, containing electricity load demands and foreign exchange market prices, are used to test several different methods, ranging from linear models with fixed parameters, to non-linear models which adapt both parameters and model order on-line. Training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. The results of our experiments show that there are advantages to be gained in tracking real world non-stationary data through the use of more complex adaptive models.

A survey of methods of numerical approximation to functions

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Theoretical investigation into methods of detecting pulmonary arteriovenous blood shunts

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The development of methods of steroid analysis in reproductive physiology

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Research of the Influence of Methods of Compression on the Co-efficient of Information Security of Objects Under Attacks

In this paper a possibility for quantitative measuring of information security of objects, exposed to information attacks and processed with methods of compression, is represented. A co-efficient of information security, which reflects the influence of the level of compression obtained after applying methods of compression to objects and the time, required by the attack to get access to the corresponding object, is proposed. Methods’ groups with the highest and respectively the lowest values of the co-efficient of information security for all methods’ groups in relation to all attacks’ groups are determined. Assessments and conclusions for future investigations are proposed.

Application of Methods of Multi-criteria Evaluation in Choosing a Method of Compression as a Means of Heightening the Information Security of System and Applied Objects

In this paper is proposed a model for researching the capability to influence, by selected methods’ groups of compression, to the co-efficient of information security of selected objects’ groups, exposed to selected attacks’ groups. With the help of methods for multi-criteria evaluation are chosen the methods’ groups with the lowest risk with respect to the information security. Recommendations for future investigations are proposed.

Analysis of Information Security of Objects under Attacks and Processed by Methods of Compression

In this paper a methodology for evaluation of information security of objects under attacks, processed by methods of compression, is represented. Two basic parameters for evaluation of information security of objects – TIME and SIZE – are chosen and the characteristics, which reflect on their evaluation, are analyzed and estimated. A co-efficient of information security of object is proposed as a mean of the coefficients of the parameter TIME and SIZE. From the simulation experiments which were carried out methods with the highest co-efficient of information security had been determined. Assessments and conclusions for future investigations are proposed.

The Methods of Conducting Studies with the Application of Combined Didactic Interactive Programme Systems

The methods of the application of the Combined didactic interactive programme system on electrical engineering disciplines has been worked out and the possibility of its application for providing a complex of different kinds of studies: lectures, tutorials, laboratory studies and also for organizing students’ independent work has been verified. The given methods provide the organization of the reproductive (recognition and reproduction) and productive heuristic educational-cognitive students’ activity in conditions of gradualness and completeness of education with the closed directed automatic control.