Simple Heuristics in a Social Game

Simple Heuristics in a Social World invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others. The social world is a terrain where humans and other animals compete with conspecifics for myriad resources, including food, mates, and status, and where rivals grant the decision maker little time for deep thought, protracted information search, or complex calculations. Yet, the social world also encompasses domains where social animals such as humans can learn from one another and can forge alliances with one another to boost their chances of success. According to the book's thesis, the undeniable complexity of the social world does not dictate cognitive complexity as many scholars of rationality argue. Rather, it entails circumstances that render optimization impossible or computationally arduous: intractability, the existence of incommensurable considerations, and competing goals. With optimization beyond reach, less can be more. That is, heuristics--simple strategies for making decisions when time is pressing and careful deliberation an unaffordable luxury--become indispensible mental tools. As accurate as or even more accurate than complex methods when used in the appropriate social environments, these heuristics are good descriptive models of how people make many decisions and inferences, but their impressive performance also poses a normative challenge for optimization models. In short, the Homo socialis may prove to be a Homo heuristicus whose intelligence reflects ecological rather than logical rationality.

O6-Methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase protein expression by immunohistochemistry in brain and non-brain systemic tumours: systematic review and meta-analysis of correlation with methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction

Background: The DNA repair protein O6-Methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) confers resistance to alkylating agents. Several methods have been applied to its analysis, with methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction (MSP) the most commonly used for promoter methylation study, while immunohistochemistry (IHC) has become the most frequently used for the detection of MGMT protein expression. Agreement on the best and most reliable technique for evaluating MGMT status remains unsettled. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the correlation between IHC and MSP. Methods A computer-aided search of MEDLINE (1950-October 2009), EBSCO (1966-October 2009) and EMBASE (1974-October 2009) was performed for relevant publications. Studies meeting inclusion criteria were those comparing MGMT protein expression by IHC with MGMT promoter methylation by MSP in the same cohort of patients. Methodological quality was assessed by using the QUADAS and STARD instruments. Previously published guidelines were followed for meta-analysis performance. Results Of 254 studies identified as eligible for full-text review, 52 (20.5%) met the inclusion criteria. The review showed that results of MGMT protein expression by IHC are not in close agreement with those obtained with MSP. Moreover, type of tumour (primary brain tumour vs others) was an independent covariate of accuracy estimates in the meta-regression analysis beyond the cut-off value. Conclusions Protein expression assessed by IHC alone fails to reflect the promoter methylation status of MGMT. Thus, in attempts at clinical diagnosis the two methods seem to select different groups of patients and should not be used interchangeably.

The analgesic efficacy of ultrasound-guided transversus abdominis plane block (TAP Block) in adult patients : a meta-analysis

Introduction : Le bloc transverse de l'abdomen (bloc TAP, Transversus Abdominis Plane) échoguidé consiste en l'injection d'anesthésique local dans la paroi abdominale entre les muscles oblique interne et transverse de l'abdomen sous contrôle échographique. Ceci permet de bloquer l'innervation sensitive de la paroi antérolatérale de l'abdomen afin de soulager la douleur après des interventions chirurgicales. Auparavant, cette procédure reposait sur une technique dite « à l'aveugle » qui utilisait des repères anatomiques de surface. Depuis quelques années, cette technique est effectuée sous guidage échographique ; ainsi, il est possible de visualiser les structures anatomiques, l'aiguille et l'anesthésique local permettant ainsi une injection précise de l'anesthésique local à l'endroit désiré. Les précédentes méta- analyses sur le bloc TAP n'ont inclus qu'un nombre limité d'articles et n'ont pas examiné l'effet analgésique spécifique de la technique échoguidée. L'objectif de cette méta-analyse est donc de définir l'efficacité analgésique propre du bloc TAP échoguidé après des interventions abdominales chez une population adulte. Méthode : Cette méta-analyse a été effectuée selon les recommandations PRISMA. Une recherche a été effectuée dans les bases de donnée MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical Trials, Excerpta Medica database (EMBASE) et Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL). Le critère de jugement principal est la consommation intraveineuse de morphine cumulée à 6 h postopératoires, analysée selon le type de chirurgie (laparotomie, laparoscopie, césarienne), la technique anesthésique (anesthésie générale, anesthésie spinale avec/ou sans morphine intrathécale), le moment de l'injection (début ou fin de l'intervention), et la présence ou non d'une analgésie multimodale. Les critères de jugement secondaires sont, entre autres, les scores de douleur au repos et à l'effort à 6 h postopératoires (échelle analogique de 0 à 100), la présence ou non de nausées et vomissements postopératoires, la présence ou non de prurit, et le taux de complications de la technique. Résultats : Trente et une études randomisées contrôlées, incluant un total de 1611 adultes ont été incluses. Indépendamment du type de chirurgie, le bloc TAP échoguidé réduit la consommation de morphine à 6 h postopératoires (différence moyenne : 6 mg ; 95%IC : -7, -4 mg ; I =94% ; p<0.00001), sauf si les patients sont au bénéfice d'une anesthésie spinale avec morphine intrathécale. Le degré de réduction de consommation de morphine n'est pas influencé par le moment de l'injection (I2=0% ; p=0.72) ou la présence d'une analgésie multimodale (I2=73% ; p=0.05). Les scores de douleurs au repos et à l'effort à 6h postopératoire sont également réduits (différence moyenne au repos : -10 ; 95%IC : -15, -5 ; I =92% ; p=0.0002; différence moyenne en mouvement : -9 ; 95%IC : -14, -5 ; I2=58% ; p<0. 00001). Aucune différence n'a été retrouvée au niveau des nausées et vomissements postopératoires et du prurit. Deux complications mineures ont été identifiées (1 hématome, 1 réaction anaphylactoïde sur 1028 patients). Conclusions : Le bloc TAP échoguidé procure une analgésie postopératoire mineure et ne présente aucun bénéfice chez les patients ayant reçu de la morphine intrathécale. L'effet analgésique mineure est indépendant du moment de l'injection ou de la présence ou non d'une analgésie multimodale.

Performance of 18F-FET versus 18F-FDG-PET for the diagnosis and grading of brain tumors: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: For the past decade (18)F-fluoro-ethyl-l-tyrosine (FET) and (18)F-fluoro-deoxy-glucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) have been used for the assessment of patients with brain tumor. However, direct comparison studies reported only limited numbers of patients. Our purpose was to compare the diagnostic performance of FET and FDG-PET. METHODS: We examined studies published between January 1995 and January 2015 in the PubMed database. To be included the study should: (i) use FET and FDG-PET for the assessment of patients with isolated brain lesion and (ii) use histology as the gold standard. Analysis was performed on a per patient basis. Study quality was assessed with STARD and QUADAS criteria. RESULTS: Five studies (119 patients) were included. For the diagnosis of brain tumor, FET-PET demonstrated a pooled sensitivity of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.79-0.98) and pooled specificity of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.37-0.99), with an area under the curve of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94-0.97), a positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 8.1 (95% CI: 0.8-80.6), and a negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.02-0.30), while FDG-PET demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.27-0.50) and specificity of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.31-0.99), with an area under the curve of 0.40 (95% CI: 0.36-0.44), an LR+ of 2.7 (95% CI: 0.3-27.8), and an LR- of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.47-1.11). Target-to-background ratios of either FDG or FET, however, allow distinction between low- and high-grade gliomas (P > .11). CONCLUSIONS: For brain tumor diagnosis, FET-PET performed much better than FDG and should be preferred when assessing a new isolated brain tumor. For glioma grading, however, both tracers showed similar performances.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Design and evaluation of learning algorithms for dynamic resource management in virtual networks

Network virtualisation is considerably gaining attentionas a solution to ossification of the Internet. However, thesuccess of network virtualisation will depend in part on how efficientlythe virtual networks utilise substrate network resources.In this paper, we propose a machine learning-based approachto virtual network resource management. We propose to modelthe substrate network as a decentralised system and introducea learning algorithm in each substrate node and substrate link,providing self-organization capabilities. We propose a multiagentlearning algorithm that carries out the substrate network resourcemanagement in a coordinated and decentralised way. The taskof these agents is to use evaluative feedback to learn an optimalpolicy so as to dynamically allocate network resources to virtualnodes and links. The agents ensure that while the virtual networkshave the resources they need at any given time, only the requiredresources are reserved for this purpose. Simulations show thatour dynamic approach significantly improves the virtual networkacceptance ratio and the maximum number of accepted virtualnetwork requests at any time while ensuring that virtual networkquality of service requirements such as packet drop rate andvirtual link delay are not affected.

Defining housing market areas using commuting and migration algorithms. Catalonia (Spain) as an applied case study

In the literature on housing market areas, different approaches can be found to defining them, for example, using travel-to-work areas and, more recently, making use of migration data. Here we propose a simple exercise to shed light on which approach performs better. Using regional data from Catalonia, Spain, we have computed housing market areas with both commuting data and migration data. In order to decide which procedure shows superior performance, we have looked at uniformity of prices within areas. The main finding is that commuting algorithms present more homogeneous areas in terms of housing prices.

Effects of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents or bare metal stent on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: patient level meta-analysis

Objectives: To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Design: Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Data sources and study selection: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. Primary outcomes: The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. Results: The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. Conclusions: This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis.

Effects of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents or bare metal stent on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: patient level meta-analysis

Objectives: To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Design: Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Data sources and study selection: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. Primary outcomes: The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. Results: The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. Conclusions: This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis.

Electrochemical study, on mercury, of a Meta-nitroarylamine derivative of nor-β-lapachone, an antitumor and trypanocidal compound

The electrochemistry of 2,2-dimethyl-(3H)-3-(N-3'-nitrophenylamino)naphtho[1,2- b]furan-4,5-dione ([Q]-PhNO2), on mercury was investigated. The first peak is consistent with a quasi-reversible one-electron reduction of the ortho-quinone, forming [Q•-]-PhNO2, while the second one, bielectronic, corresponds to the simultaneous reduction of the latter radical to a dianion and the nitro group to a nitro radical anion. The second order rate constant, k disp, for the decay of [Q•-]-PhNO2 is 15.188 x 10³ ± 827 mol"1 L s"1 and the t1/2 equals 0.06 s. E¹7Ic values for [Q]-PhNO2 and its precursor, nor-β-lapachone, are similar. The ease of semiquinone generation and its stability are parameters statistically relevant in the correlation biochemical/theoretical aspects.

MCMC Analysis Of Classical Time Series Algorithms

Identification of order of an Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) by the usual graphical method is subjective. Hence, there is a need of developing a technique to identify the order without employing the graphical investigation of series autocorrelations. To avoid subjectivity, this thesis focuses on determining the order of the Autoregressive Moving Average Model using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). The RJMCMC selects the model from a set of the models suggested by better fitting, standard deviation errors and the frequency of accepted data. Together with deep analysis of the classical Box-Jenkins modeling methodology the integration with MCMC algorithms has been focused through parameter estimation and model fitting of ARMA models. This helps to verify how well the MCMC algorithms can treat the ARMA models, by comparing the results with graphical method. It has been seen that the MCMC produced better results than the classical time series approach.

Meta-estética e ética francesa do sentido (Derrida, Deleuze, Serres, Nancy)

"Meta-estética e ética francesa do sentido" é uma análise de alguns conceitos formadores do chamado "pós-estruturalismo" e de certos aspectos de sua seqüência histórica. Através de fontes textuais de pensadores que ocupam um momento significativo da produção filosófica internacional, com Jacques Derrida, Gilles Deleuze, Michel Serres e Jean-Luc Nancy, dos anos sessenta até os noventa, o texto coloca em perspectiva conceitos nevrálgicos e estratégicos ressituados nas suas implicações críticas. A manifestação das convergências ligando os pensamentos desses quatro filósofos permite ressaltar os bastidores especulativos de uma "condição poética do pensamento" (Alain Badiou) delineando os contornos de uma meta-estética do sentido que é ao mesmo tempo uma ética. Essa fusão, bem sintetizada na fórmula de Michel Serres, que diz que "a moral é a física", é determinada pelas elaborações, as experimentações e as conquistas realizadas na filosofia derridiana da desconstrução, na filosofia deleuziana do conceito, na filosofia serresiana da física e na filosofia nancyana da arealidade. Os processos em jogo nesses sistemas tentam descobrir nos estratos aporéticos do pensamento as chances de induzir uma cosmologia paradoxal e inaudita.

A poiêtikê technê como instrumento meta-filosófico

Defendo que o estudo de Aristóteles sobre poiêtikê technê deve ser entendido como um estudo sobre um vocabulário meta-filosófico. Defendo ainda que a sua vantagem principal é a de tornar explícita uma contiguidade conceptual entre um conjunto de problemas relacionados com teoria da acção, racionalidade e cognição colectiva, assim como a de dar inteligibilidade indirecta à partilha de disposições em comunidades humanas.