Risk management and the potential of cattle insurance in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

This study explores the role of livestock insurance to complement existing risk management strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. Using survey data, first, it provides insights into farmers’ risk perception of livestock farming, in terms of likelihood and severity of risk, attitude to risk and their determinants. Second, it examines farmers’ risk management strategies and their determinants. Third, it investigates farmers’ potential engagement with a hypothetical cattle insurance decision and their intensity of participation. Factor analysis is used to analyse risk sources and risk management, multiple regressions are used to identify the determinants; a Heckman model was used to investigate cattle insurance participation and intensity of participation. The findings show different groups of farmers display different risk attitude in their decision-making related to livestock farming. Production risk (especially livestock diseases) was perceived as the most likely and severe source of risk. Disease control was perceived as the best strategy to manage risk overall. Disease control and feed management were important strategies to mitigate the production risks. Disease control and participation on safety net program were found to be important to counter households’ financial risks. With regard to the hypothetical cattle insurance scheme, 94.38% of households were interested to participate in cattle insurance. Of those households that accepted cattle insurance, 77.38% of the households were willing to pay the benchmark annual premium of 4% of the animal value while for the remaining households this was not affordable. The average number of cattle that farmers were willing to insure was 2.71 at this benchmark. Results revealed that income (log income) and education levels influenced positively and significantly farmers’ participation in cattle insurance and the number of cattle to insure. The findings prompt policy makers to consider livestock insurance as a complement to existing risk management strategies to reduce poverty in the long-run.

Development of large-scale colloidal crystallisation methods for the production of photonic crystals

Colloidal photonic crystals have potential light manipulation applications including; fabrication of efficient lasers and LEDs, improved optical sensors and interconnects, and improving photovoltaic efficiencies. One road-block of colloidal selfassembly is their inherent defects; however, they can be manufactured cost effectively into large area films compared to micro-fabrication methods. This thesis investigates production of ‘large-area’ colloidal photonic crystals by sonication, under oil co-crystallization and controlled evaporation, with a view to reducing cracking and other defects. A simple monotonic Stöber particle synthesis method was developed producing silica particles in the range of 80 to 600nm in a single step. An analytical method assesses the quality of surface particle ordering in a semiquantitative manner was developed. Using fast Fourier transform (FFT) spot intensities, a grey scale symmetry area method, has been used to quantify the FFT profiles. Adding ultrasonic vibrations during film formation demonstrated large areas could be assembled rapidly, however film ordering suffered as a result. Under oil cocrystallisation results in the particles being bound together during film formation. While having potential to form large areas, it requires further refinement to be established as a production technique. Achieving high quality photonic crystals bonded with low concentrations (<5%) of polymeric adhesives while maintaining refractive index contrast, proved difficult and degraded the film’s uniformity. A controlled evaporation method, using a mixed solvent suspension, represents the most promising method to produce high quality films over large areas, 75mm x 25mm. During this mixed solvent approach, the film is kept in the wet state longer, thus reducing cracks developing during the drying stage. These films are crack-free up to a critical thickness, and show very large domains, which are visible in low magnification SEM images as Moiré fringe patterns. Higher magnification reveals separation between alternate fringe patterns are domain boundaries between individual crystalline growth fronts.

Biomethane production from grass silage: laboratory assessment to maximise yields

On-farm biogas production is typically associated with forage maize as the biomass source. Digesters are designed and operated with the focus of optimising the conditions for this feedstock. Thus, such systems may not be ideally suited to the digestion of grass. Ireland has ca. 3.85 million ha of grassland. Annual excess grass, surplus to livestock requirements, could potentially fuel an anaerobic digestion industry. Biomethane associated with biomass from 1.1 % of grassland in Ireland, could potentially generate over 10 % renewable energy supply in transport. This study aims to identify and optimise technologies for the production of biomethane from grass silage. Mono-digestion of grass silage and co-digestion with slurry, as would occur on Irish farms, is investigated in laboratory trials. Grass silage was shown to have 7 times greater methane potential than dairy slurry on a fresh weight basis (107 m3 t-1 v 16 m3 t-1). However, comprehensive trace element profiles indicated that cobalt, iron and nickel are deficient in mono-digestion of grass silage at a high organic loading rate (OLR) of 4.0 kg VS m-3 d-1. The addition of a slurry co-substrate was beneficial due to its wealth of essential trace elements. To stimulate hydrolysis of high lignocellulose grass silage, particle size reduction (physical) and rumen fluid addition (biological) were investigated. In a continuous trial, digestion of grass silage of <1 cm particle size achieved a specific methane yield of 371 L CH4 kg-1 VS when coupled with rumen fluid addition. The concept of demand driven biogas was also examined in a two-phase digestion system (leaching with UASB). When demand for electricity is low it is recommended to disconnect the UASB from the system and recirculate rumen fluid to increase volatile fatty acid (VFA) and soluble chemical oxygen demand (SCOD) production whilst minimising volatile solids (VS) destruction. At times of high demand for electricity, connection of the UASB increases the destruction of volatiles and associated biogas production. The above experiments are intended to assess a range of biogas production options from grass silage with a specific focus on maximising methane yields and provide a guideline for feasible design and operation of on-farm digesters in Ireland.

Biogas production from novel substrates

Biogas production is the conversion of the organic material into methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) under anaerobic conditions. Anaerobic digestion (AD) is widely used in continental and Scandinavian communities as both a waste treatment option and a source of renewable energy. Ireland however lags behind this European movement. Numerous feedstocks exist which could be digested and used to fuel a renewable transport fleet in Ireland. An issue exists with the variety of feedstocks; these need to be assessed and quantified to ascertain their potential resource and application to AD. From literature the ideal C:N ratio is between 25 and 30:1. Low levels of C:N (<15) can lead to problems with ammonia inhibition. Within the digester a plentiful supply of nutrients and a balanced C:N is required for stable performance. Feedstocks were sampled from a range of over 100 different substrates in Ireland including for first, second and third generation feedstocks. The C:N ranged from 81:1 (Winter Oats) to 7:1 (Silage Effluent). The BMP yields were recorded ranging from 38 ± 2.0 L CH4 kg−1 VS for pig slurry (weaning pigs) to 805 ± 57 L CH4 kg−1 VS for used cooking oil (UCO). However the selection of the best preforming feedstock in terms of C:N ratio or BMP yield alone is not sufficiently adequate. A total picture has to be created which includes C:N ratio, BMP yield, harvest yield and availability. Potential feedstocks which best meet these requirements include for Grass silage, Milk processing waste (MPW) and Saccharina latissima. MPW has a potential of meeting over 6 times the required energy for Ireland’s 2020 transport in energy targets. S. Latissima recorded a yield of over 10,000 GJ ha-1 yr-1 which out ranks traditional second generation biofuels by a factor of more than 4.

Engineering design of a bioprocess for the production of natural red colourants by submerged fermentation of the thermophilic fungus Penicillium purpurogenum GH2

The development of a new bioprocess requires several steps from initial concept to a practical and feasible application. Industrial applications of fungal pigments will depend on: (i) safety of consumption, (ii) stability of the pigments to the food processing conditions required by the products where they will be incorporated and (iii) high production yields so that production costs are reasonable. Of these requirements the first involves the highest research costs and the practical application of this type of processes may face several hurdles until final regulatory approval as a new food ingredient. Therefore, before going through expensive research to have them accepted as new products, the process potential should be assessed early on, and this brings forward pigment stability studies and process optimisation goals. Only ingredients that are usable in economically feasible conditions should progress to regulatory approval. This thesis covers these two aspects, stability and process optimisation, for a potential new ingredient; natural red colour, produced by microbial fermentation. The main goal was to design, optimise and scale-up the production process of red pigments by Penicillium purpurogenum GH2. The approach followed to reach this objective was first to establish that pigments produced by Penicillium purpurogenum GH2 are sufficiently stable under different processing conditions (thermal and non-thermal) that can be found in food and textile industries. Once defined that pigments were stable enough, the work progressed towards process optimisation, aiming for the highest productivity using submerged fermentation as production culture. Optimum production conditions defined at flask scale were used to scale up the pigment production process to a pilot reactor scale. Finally, the potential applications of the pigments were assessed. Based on this sequence of specific targets, the thesis was structured in six parts, containing a total of nine chapters. Engineering design of a bioprocess for the production of natural red colourants by submerged fermentation of the thermophilic fungus Penicillium purpurogenum GH2.

A corpus-driven error analysis of the oral and written production of Leaving Certificate Spanish learners

The Leaving Certificate (LC) is the national, standardised state examination in Ireland necessary for entry to third level education – this presents a massive, raw corpus of data with the potential to yield invaluable insight into the phenomena of learner interlanguage. With samples of official LC Spanish examination data, this project has compiled a digitised corpus of learner Spanish comprised of the written and oral production of 100 candidates. This corpus was then analysed using a specific investigative corpus technique, Computer-aided Error Analysis (CEA, Dagneaux et al, 1998). CEA is a powerful apparatus in that it greatly facilitates the quantification and analysis of a large learner corpus in digital format. The corpus was both compiled and analysed with the use of UAM Corpus Tool (O’Donnell 2013). This Tool allows for the recording of candidate-specific variables such as grade, examination level, task type and gender, therefore allowing for critical analysis of the corpus as one unit, as separate written and oral sub corpora and also of performance per task, level and gender. This is an interdisciplinary work combining aspects of Applied Linguistics, Learner Corpus Research and Foreign Language (FL) Learning. Beginning with a review of the context of FL learning in Ireland and Europe, I go on to discuss the disciplinary context and theoretical framework for this work and outline the methodology applied. I then perform detailed quantitative and qualitative analyses before going on to combine all research findings outlining principal conclusions. This investigation does not make a priori assumptions about the data set, the LC Spanish examination, the context of FLs or of any aspect of learner competence. It undertakes to provide the linguistic research community and the domain of Spanish language learning and pedagogy in Ireland with an empirical, descriptive profile of real learner performance, characterising learner difficulty.

Identification and assessment of potential wind energy project sites in the State of Maryland

Gemstone Team Renewables

Global Rates of Free Hydrogen (H2) Production by Serpentinization and other Abiogenic Processes within Young Ocean Crust

The main conclusion of this dissertation is that global H2 production within young ocean crust (<10 Mya) is higher than currently recognized, in part because current estimates of H2 production accompanying the serpentinization of peridotite may be too low (Chapter 2) and in part because a number of abiogenic H2-producing processes have heretofore gone unquantified (Chapter 3). The importance of free H2 to a range of geochemical processes makes the quantitative understanding of H2 production advanced in this dissertation pertinent to an array of open research questions across the geosciences (e.g. the origin and evolution of life and the oxidation of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans).

The first component of this dissertation (Chapter 2) examines H2 produced within young ocean crust [e.g. near the mid-ocean ridge (MOR)] by serpentinization. In the presence of water, olivine-rich rocks (peridotites) undergo serpentinization (hydration) at temperatures of up to ~500°C but only produce H2 at temperatures up to ~350°C. A simple analytical model is presented that mechanistically ties the process to seafloor spreading and explicitly accounts for the importance of temperature in H2 formation. The model suggests that H2 production increases with the rate of seafloor spreading and the net thickness of serpentinized peridotite (S-P) in a column of lithosphere. The model is applied globally to the MOR using conservative estimates for the net thickness of lithospheric S-P, our least certain model input. Despite the large uncertainties surrounding the amount of serpentinized peridotite within oceanic crust, conservative model parameters suggest a magnitude of H2 production (~1012 moles H2/y) that is larger than the most widely cited previous estimates (~1011 although previous estimates range from 1010-1012 moles H2/y). Certain model relationships are also consistent with what has been established through field studies, for example that the highest H2 fluxes (moles H2/km2 seafloor) are produced near slower-spreading ridges (<20 mm/y). Other modeled relationships are new and represent testable predictions. Principal among these is that about half of the H2 produced globally is produced off-axis beneath faster-spreading seafloor (>20 mm/y), a region where only one measurement of H2 has been made thus far and is ripe for future investigation.

In the second part of this dissertation (Chapter 3), I construct the first budget for free H2 in young ocean crust that quantifies and compares all currently recognized H2 sources and H2 sinks. First global estimates of budget components are proposed in instances where previous estimate(s) could not be located provided that the literature on that specific budget component was not too sparse to do so. Results suggest that the nine known H2 sources, listed in order of quantitative importance, are: Crystallization (6x1012 moles H2/y or 61% of total H2 production), serpentinization (2x1012 moles H2/y or 21%), magmatic degassing (7x1011 moles H2/y or 7%), lava-seawater interaction (5x1011 moles H2/y or 5%), low-temperature alteration of basalt (5x1011 moles H2/y or 5%), high-temperature alteration of basalt (3x1010 moles H2/y or <1%), catalysis (3x108 moles H2/y or <<1%), radiolysis (2x108 moles H2/y or <<1%), and pyrite formation (3x106 moles H2/y or <<1%). Next we consider two well-known H2 sinks, H2 lost to the ocean and H2 occluded within rock minerals, and our analysis suggests that both are of similar size (both are 6x1011 moles H2/y). Budgeting results suggest a large difference between H2 sources (total production = 1x1013 moles H2/y) and H2 sinks (total losses = 1x1011 moles H2/y). Assuming this large difference represents H2 consumed by microbes (total consumption = 9x1011 moles H2/y), we explore rates of primary production by the chemosynthetic, sub-seafloor biosphere. Although the numbers presented require further examination and future modifications, the analysis suggests that the sub-seafloor H2 budget is similar to the sub-seafloor CH4 budget in the sense that globally significant quantities of both of these reduced gases are produced beneath the seafloor but never escape the seafloor due to microbial consumption.

The third and final component of this dissertation (Chapter 4) explores the self-organization of barchan sand dune fields. In nature, barchan dunes typically exist as members of larger dune fields that display striking, enigmatic structures that cannot be readily explained by examining the dynamics at the scale of single dunes, or by appealing to patterns in external forcing. To explore the possibility that observed structures emerge spontaneously as a collective result of many dunes interacting with each other, we built a numerical model that treats barchans as discrete entities that interact with one another according to simplified rules derived from theoretical and numerical work, and from field observations: Dunes exchange sand through the fluxes that leak from the downwind side of each dune and are captured on their upstream sides; when dunes become sufficiently large, small dunes are born on their downwind sides (“calving”); and when dunes collide directly enough, they merge. Results show that these relatively simple interactions provide potential explanations for a range of field-scale phenomena including isolated patches of dunes and heterogeneous arrangements of similarly sized dunes in denser fields. The results also suggest that (1) dune field characteristics depend on the sand flux fed into the upwind boundary, although (2) moving downwind, the system approaches a common attracting state in which the memory of the upwind conditions vanishes. This work supports the hypothesis that calving exerts a first order control on field-scale phenomena; it prevents individual dunes from growing without bound, as single-dune analyses suggest, and allows the formation of roughly realistic, persistent dune field patterns.

Metal oxide photoanodes for solar hydrogen production

The development of sustainable hydrogen production is a key target in the further facilitation of a hydrogen economy. Solar hydrogen generation through the photolytic splitting of water sensitised by semiconductor materials is attractive as it is both renewable and does not lead to problematic by-products, unlike current hydrogen sources such as natural gas. Consequently, the development of these semiconductor materials has undergone considerable research since their discovery over 30 years ago and it would seem prescient to review the more practical results of this research. Among the critical factors influencing the choice of semiconductor material for photoelectrolysis of water are the band-gap energies, flat band potentials and stability towards photocorrosion; the latter of these points directs us to focus on metal oxides. Careful design of thin films of photocatalyst material can eliminate potential routes of losses in performance, i.e., recombination at grain boundaries. Methods to overcome these problems are discussed such as coupling a photoanode for photolysis of water to a photovoltaic cell in a 'tandem cell' device.

Aspects Of Microbial Heterotrophic Production In A Highly Turbid Estuary

The uptake of 14C glucose by natural microbial populations has been studied in the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel, U.K.; the turbidity (suspended solids) in the estuary varied between < 5 mg · 1−1 at the seaward extremity to >800 mg · 1−1 in the estuary proper. The heterotrophic potential, Vm, was found to correlate with turbidity and particulate organic carbon but there was no correlation between microbial biomass, as assessed by plate counts, and turbidity or Vm; measurement of Vm ranged from 0.9 × 10−4 to 288 × 10−4μgC·1−1·h−1 and turnover time from <2 to >100 h. In 17 out of 42 experiments, the uptake of 14C glucose did not conform to Michaelis kinetics and in five of these experiments the data suggested that there may be a threshold of glucose concentration below which there is no uptake.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0 degrees and 90 degrees W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2 degrees C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27 degrees to 1.08 degrees C will occur by the late 21st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Production and characterization of a trehalolipid biosurfactant produced by the novel marine bacteriumRhodococcussp., strain PML026

AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate biosurfactant production by a novel marine Rhodococcus sp., strain PML026 and characterize the chemical nature and properties of the biosurfactant. METHODS AND RESULTS: A novel marine bacterium (Rhodococcus species; strain PML026) was shown to produce biosurfactant in the presence of hydrophobic substrate (sunflower oil). Biosurfactant production (identified as a trehalolipid) was monitored in whole-batch cultures (oil layer and aqueous phase), aqueous phase (no oil layer) and filtered (0·2mum) aqueous phase (no oil or cells; extracellular) and was shown to be closely associated with growth/biomass production. Extracellular trehalolipid levels increased postonset of stationary growth phase. Purified trehalolipid was able to reduce the surface tension of water to 29mN m(-1) at Critical Micellar Concentration (CMC) of c. 250mgl(-1) and produced emulsions that were stable to a wide range of conditions (pH 2-10, temperatures of 20-100°C and NaCl concentrations of 5-25% w/v). Separate chemical analyses of the intact trehalolipid and its constituents demonstrated the compound was in fact a mixture of homologues (>1180MW) consisting of a trehalose moiety esterified to a series of straight chain and hydroxylated fatty acids. CONCLUSIONS: The trehalolipid biosurfactant produced by the novel marine strain Rhodococcus sp. PML026 was characterized and exhibited high surfactant activity under a wide range of conditions. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF STUDY: Strain PML026 of Rhodococcus sp. is a potential candidate for bioremediation or biosurfactant production for various applications.

Growth and production of Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus) in nursery habitats of the Gulf of Alaska

Nursery areas for juvenile fishes are often important for determining recruitment in marine populations by providing habitats that can maximize growth and thereby minimize mortality. Pacific ocean perch (POP, Sebastes alutus) have an extended juvenile period where they inhabit rocky nursery habitats. We examined POP nursery areas to link growth potential to recruitment. Juvenile POP were captured from nursery areas in 2004 and 2008, and estimated growth rates ranged from −0.19 to 0.60 g day−1 based on differences in size between June and August. Predicted growth rates from a bioenergetics model ranged from 0.05 to 0.49 g day−1 and were not significantly different than observed. Substrate preferences and the distribution of their preferred habitats were utilized to predict the extent of juvenile POP nursery habitat in the Gulf of Alaska. Based on densities of fish observed on underwater video transects and the spatial extent of nursery areas, we predicted 278 and 290 million juvenile POP were produced in 2004 and 2008. Growth potential for juvenile POP was reconstructed using the bioenergetics model, spring zooplankton bloom timing and duration and bottom water temperature for 1982–2008. When a single outlying recruitment year in 1986 was removed, growth potential experienced by juvenile POP in nursery areas was significantly correlated to the recruitment time-series from the stock assessment, explaining ∼30% of the variability. This research highlights the potential to predict recruitment using habitat-based methods and provides a potential mechanism for explaining some of the POP recruitment variability observed for this population.

Investigating the inter-relationships between water attenuated irradiance, primary production and DMS(P)

Both solar irradiance and primary production have been proposed as independent controls on seawater dimethyl sulphide (DMS) and dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP) concentrations. However, irradiance also drives photosynthesis, and thus influences a complex set of inter-related processes that modulate marine DMS. We investigate the potential inter-relationships between the rate of primary production (carbon assimilation), water-attenuated irradiance and DMS/DMSP dynamics by applying correlation analysis to a high resolution, concurrently sampled in situ data set from a range of latitudes covering multiple biogeochemical provinces from 3 of the 4 Longhurst biogeochemical domains. The combination of primary production (PP) and underwater irradiance (Iz) within a multivariate regression model is able to explain 55% of the variance in DMS concentrations from all depths within the euphotic zone and 66% of the variance in surface DMS concentrations. Contrary to some previous studies we find a variable representing biological processes is necessary to better account for the variance in DMS. We find that the inclusion of Iz accounts for variance in DMS that is independent from the variance explained by PP. This suggests an important role for solar irradiance (beyond the influence of irradiance upon primary production) in mediating the relationship between the productivity of the ecosystem, DMS/DMSP production and ambient seawater DMS concentrations.