Estimating the mean and standard deviation of concentration distributions using censored samples

Environmental data sets of pollutant concentrations in air, water, and soil frequently include unquantified sample values reported only as being below the analytical method detection limit. These values, referred to as censored values, should be considered in the estimation of distribution parameters as each represents some value of pollutant concentration between zero and the detection limit. Most of the currently accepted methods for estimating the population parameters of environmental data sets containing censored values rely upon the assumption of an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. This assumption can result in unacceptable levels of error in parameter estimation due to the unbounded left tail of the normal distribution. With the beta distribution, which is bounded by the same range of a distribution of concentrations, $\rm\lbrack0\le x\le1\rbrack,$ parameter estimation errors resulting from improper distribution bounds are avoided. This work developed a method that uses the beta distribution to estimate population parameters from censored environmental data sets and evaluated its performance in comparison to currently accepted methods that rely upon an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. Data sets were generated assuming typical values encountered in environmental pollutant evaluation for mean, standard deviation, and number of variates. For each set of model values, data sets were generated assuming that the data was distributed either normally, lognormally, or according to a beta distribution. For varying levels of censoring, two established methods of parameter estimation, regression on normal ordered statistics, and regression on lognormal ordered statistics, were used to estimate the known mean and standard deviation of each data set. The method developed for this study, employing a beta distribution assumption, was also used to estimate parameters and the relative accuracy of all three methods were compared. For data sets of all three distribution types, and for censoring levels up to 50%, the performance of the new method equaled, if not exceeded, the performance of the two established methods. Because of its robustness in parameter estimation regardless of distribution type or censoring level, the method employing the beta distribution should be considered for full development in estimating parameters for censored environmental data sets. ^

Experimental validation of a mean field model of mineralized collagen fiber arrays at two levels of hierarchy

In the course of this study, stiffness of a fibril array of mineralized collagen fibrils modeled with a mean field method was validated experimentally at site-matched two levels of tissue hierarchy using mineralized turkey leg tendons (MTLT). The applied modeling approaches allowed to model the properties of this unidirectional tissue from nanoscale (mineralized collagen fibrils) to macroscale (mineralized tendon). At the microlevel, the indentation moduli obtained with a mean field homogenization scheme were compared to the experimental ones obtained with microindentation. At the macrolevel, the macroscopic stiffness predicted with micro finite element (μFE) models was compared to the experimental stiffness measured with uniaxial tensile tests. Elastic properties of the elements in μFE models were injected from the mean field model or two-directional microindentations. Quantitatively, the indentation moduli can be properly predicted with the mean-field models. Local stiffness trends within specific tissue morphologies are very weak, suggesting additional factors responsible for the stiffness variations. At macrolevel, the μFE models underestimate the macroscopic stiffness, as compared to tensile tests, but the correlations are strong.

Increasing mean arterial blood pressure in sepsis: effects on fluid balance, vasopressor load and renal function.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of two different mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) targets on needs for resuscitation, organ dysfunction, mitochondrial respiration and inflammatory response in a long-term model of fecal peritonitis. METHODS: Twenty-four anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were randomly assigned (n = 8/group) to a septic control group (septic-CG) without resuscitation until death or one of two groups with resuscitation performed after 12 hours of untreated sepsis for 48 hours, targeting MAP 50-60 mmHg (low-MAP) or 75-85 mmHg (high-MAP). RESULTS: MAP at the end of resuscitation was 56 ± 13 mmHg (mean ± SD) and 76 ± 17 mmHg respectively, for low-MAP and high-MAP groups. One animal each in high- and low-MAP groups, and all animals in septic-CG died (median survival time: 21.8 hours, inter-quartile range: 16.3-27.5 hours). Norepinephrine was administered to all animals of the high-MAP group (0.38 (0.21-0.56) mcg/kg/min), and to three animals of the low-MAP group (0.00 (0.00-0.25) mcg/kg/min; P = 0.009). The high-MAP group had a more positive fluid balance (3.3 ± 1.0 mL/kg/h vs. 2.3 ± 0.7 mL/kg/h; P = 0.001). Inflammatory markers, skeletal muscle ATP content and hemodynamics other than MAP did not differ between low- and high-MAP groups. The incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) after 12 hours of untreated sepsis was, respectively for low- and high-MAP groups, 50% (4/8) and 38% (3/8), and in the end of the study 57% (4/7) and 0% (P = 0.026). In septic-CG, maximal isolated skeletal muscle mitochondrial Complex I, State 3 respiration increased from 1357 ± 149 pmol/s/mg to 1822 ± 385 pmol/s/mg, (P = 0.020). In high- and low-MAP groups, permeabilized skeletal muscle fibers Complex IV-state 3 respiration increased during resuscitation (P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The MAP targets during resuscitation did not alter the inflammatory response, nor affected skeletal muscle ATP content and mitochondrial respiration. While targeting a lower MAP was associated with increased incidence of AKI, targeting a higher MAP resulted in increased net positive fluid balance and vasopressor load during resuscitation. The long-term effects of different MAP targets need to be evaluated in further studies.

On the Limits of Greenwich Mean Time, or The Failure of a Modernist Revolution

On the Limits of Greenwich Mean Time, or The Failure of a Modernist Revolution From the introduction of World Standard Time in 1884 to Einstein’s theory of relativity, the nature and regulation of time was a highly contested issue in modernism, with profound political, social and epistemological consequences. Modernist aesthetic sensibilities widely revolted against the increasingly strict rule of the clock, which, as Georg Simmel observed in “The Metropolis and Mental Life,” was established as the necessary basis of a capitalist, urban life. This paper will focus on the contending conceptions of time arising in key modernist texts by authors like Joyce, Woolf and Conrad. I will argue that the uniformity and regularity of time necessary to a rising capitalist society came under attack in a similar way by both modernist literary aesthetics and new scientific discoveries. However, while Einstein’s theory of relativity may have led to a subsequent change of paradigm in scientific thought, it has failed to significantly alter social and popular conceptions of time. Although alternative ways of thinking and living with time are proposed by modernist authors, they remain isolated aesthetic experiments, ineffectual against the regulatory pressure of economic and social structures. In this struggle about the nature of time, so I suggest, science and literature join force against a society that is increasingly governed by economic reason. The fact that they lost this struggle can serve as a striking illustration of an increasing shift of social influence from science and art towards economy.

High Incorrect Use of the Standard Error of the Mean (SEM) in Original Articles in Three Cardiovascular Journals Evaluated for 2012.

RATIONALE In biomedical journals authors sometimes use the standard error of the mean (SEM) for data description, which has been called inappropriate or incorrect. OBJECTIVE To assess the frequency of incorrect use of SEM in articles in three selected cardiovascular journals. METHODS AND RESULTS All original journal articles published in 2012 in Cardiovascular Research, Circulation: Heart Failure and Circulation Research were assessed by two assessors for inappropriate use of SEM when providing descriptive information of empirical data. We also assessed whether the authors state in the methods section that the SEM will be used for data description. Of 441 articles included in this survey, 64% (282 articles) contained at least one instance of incorrect use of the SEM, with two journals having a prevalence above 70% and "Circulation: Heart Failure" having the lowest value (27%). In 81% of articles with incorrect use of SEM, the authors had explicitly stated that they use the SEM for data description and in 89% SEM bars were also used instead of 95% confidence intervals. Basic science studies had a 7.4-fold higher level of inappropriate SEM use (74%) than clinical studies (10%). LIMITATIONS The selection of the three cardiovascular journals was based on a subjective initial impression of observing inappropriate SEM use. The observed results are not representative for all cardiovascular journals. CONCLUSION In three selected cardiovascular journals we found a high level of inappropriate SEM use and explicit methods statements to use it for data description, especially in basic science studies. To improve on this situation, these and other journals should provide clear instructions to authors on how to report descriptive information of empirical data.

Using 18O/2H, 3H/3He, 85Kr and CFCs to determine mean residence times and water origin in the Grazer and Leibnitzer Feld groundwater bodies (Austria)

Two groundwater bodies, Grazer Feld and Leibnitzer Feld, with surface areas of 166 and 103 km2 respectively are characterised for the first time by measuring the combination of d18O/d2H, 3H/3He, 85Kr, CFC-11, CFC-12 and hydrochemistry in 34 monitoring wells in 2009/2010. The timescales of groundwater recharge have been characterised by 131 d18O measurements of well and surface water sampled on a seasonal basis. Most monitoring wells show a seasonal variation or indicate variable contributions of the main river Mur (0–30%, max. 70%) and/or other rivers having their recharge areas in higher altitudes. Combined d18O/d2H-measurements indicate that 65–75% of groundwater recharge in the unusual wet year of 2009 was from precipitation in the summer based on values from the Graz meteorological station. Monitoring wells downstream of gravel pit lakes show a clear evaporation trend. A boron–nitrate differentiation plot shows more frequent boron-rich water in the more urbanised Grazer Feld and more frequent nitrate-rich water in the more agricultural used Leibnitzer Feld indicating that a some of the nitrate load in the Grazer Feld comes from urban sewer water. Several lumped parameter models based on tritium input data from Graz and monthly data from the river Mur (Spielfeld) since 1977 yield a Mean Residence Time (MRT) for the Mur-water itself between 3 and 4 years in this area. Data from d18O, 3H/3He measurements at the Wagna lysimeter station supports the conclusion that 90% of the groundwaters in the Grazer Feld and 73% in the Leibnitzer Feld have MRTs of <5 years. Only in a few groundwaters were MRTs of 6–10 or 11–25 years as a result of either a long-distance water inflow in the basins or due to longer flow path in somewhat deeper wells (>20 m) with relative thicker unsaturated zones. The young MRT of groundwater from two monitoring wells in the Leibnitzer Feld was confirmed by 85Kr-measurements. Most CFC-11 and CFC-12 concentrations in the groundwater exceed the equilibration concentrations of modern concentrations in water and are therefore unsuitable for dating purposes. An enrichment factor up to 100 compared to atmospheric equilibrium concentrations and the obvious correlation of CFC-12 with SO4, Na, Cl and B in the ground waters of the Grazer Feld suggest that waste water in contact with CFC-containing material above and below ground is the source for the contamination. The dominance of very young groundwater (<5 years) indicates a recent origin of the contamination by nitrate and many other components observed in parts of the groundwater bodies. Rapid measures to reduce those sources are needed to mitigate against further deterioration of these waters.

What does professionalisation mean? Perceptions of professionalisation in swiss sport federations

Introduction: Organisational changes in sports federations are often associated with a drift from a volunteer driven to an increasingly business-like phenomenon (Shilbury & Ferkins, 2011). This process of transfor-mation is be called as “professionalization”. Accordingly, professionalization seems to be an appropriate strategy for sport organisations in order to meet organizational pressure due to challenges of a more complex and dynamic changing environment adequately. Despite the increasing research interest and the attempts for systematization on the phenomenon of professionalization it still remains unclear what does the term professionalization exactly mean (Dowling et al., 2014). Thus, there is a lack of a consistent concept of professionalization that is needed in order to explore different facets and perspectives of this phenomenon more validly. Against this background following question emerged: What is the suitable concept of professionalization for analyzing the actual ongoing processes of change, adaption or transformation in sport federations? Methods: Dealing with this question, following two-step approach was choosen: (1) In a first step a scholar’s perspective at professionalisation of sport organisations will be displayed in order to explore both the common ground as well as divergences and inconsistencies in previous approaches. Therefore, a literature review is indicated. (2) In a second step, and in contrast to previous studies we will consider a practical point of view by a so called second-order observation of experts to gain valuable insights into current thinking and acting towards professionalization in sport federations. In doing so, a hermeneutical approach is used, which is about understanding the meaning of contexts by grasping the everyday world, and draw insight and meaning from it (Shilbury et al., 2013). Accordance with hermeneutics, the explorative interpretive knowledge of expert interviews was used. The interviews were conducted with a sample of six selected experts, who have both dedicated insider knowledge and the overall view of all Swiss sport federations. Results and discussion: The summaries of literature review could be categorized into two research currents. The one defines professionalization as a structural process towards professional status of occupations. The other defines it in a broader sense as an organisational change towards a business-like approach. Whereas the first perspective there is a broad scientific consensus that second isn’t that clear, however. Explorative analysis of interview data reveals different themes in relation to professionalization of sports federation. First theme deals with a changed philosophy as more strategic alignment towards for-profit, efficiency and quality orientation. Second theme refers to paid work associated with more competence orientation and balanced governance between paid and voluntary work. Third theme deals with acting shift towards more rationalization and efficiency by implementation of innovative management and communication tools. Based on findings of both our review of scholar`s perspective as well insights from experts we will provide – in the sense of synthesis – a more clear understanding of what does professionalization mean that can be useful in terms of further studies. References: Dowling, M., Edwards, J. & Washington, M. (2014). Understanding the concept of professionalisation in sport management research. Sport Management Review, 17 (4), 520–529. Shilbury, D., Ferkins, L. & Smythe, L. (2013). Sport governance encounters: Insights from lived experiences. Sport Management Review, 16,349–363. Shilbury, D., & Ferkins, L. (2011). Professionalisation, sport governance and strategic capability. Managing Leisure, 16, 108–127.

What does professionalization mean? Developing a conceptual framework of professionalization in sports federations

Professionalization seems to be an appropriate strategy for sports organizations to meet organizational pressure due to challenges of a more complex and dynamic changing environment (e.g. Shilbury & Ferkins, 2011). However, despite the increasing number of studies attempting to disclose professionalization in sports organizations, it still remains unclear, what the term professionalization actually mean, and which aspects a suitable concept of professionalization for studying the phenomena should consist in (Dowling et al., 2014). To bridge this gap, we firstly display scholars’ perspective of professionalization in sports organizations in order to explore the common ground as well as divergences in previous approaches. We will then consider practical views of Swiss experts to gain valuable insight, as pointed out by Slack (2014), into current thinking and acting towards professionalization in sports federations in Switzerland. In semi-structured interviews, we asked six experts, who accompany the professionalization processes of Swiss national sports federations, about their subjective understanding of professionalization, and its characteristics. The interviews were analyzed applying hermeneutic approach to systematically reconstruct the observed characteristics of professionalization resulting in three main topics: (1) changed management philosophy, (2) specialization and functional differentiation, and (3) management tools. Based on the literature review as well as insights from the Swiss experts, we will provide a synthesis of crucial aspects for developing a conceptual framework of professionalization that can be useful for further studies. References Dowling, M., Edwards, J., & Washington, M. (2014). Understanding the concept of professionalisation in sport management research. Sport Management Review, 17, 520-529. Shilbury, D., & Ferkins, L. (2011). Professionalisation, sport governance and strategic capability. Managing Leisure, 16, 108-127. Slack, T. (2014). The social and commercial impact of sport, the role of sport management. European Sport Management Quarterly, 14, 454–463.

Trends of mean and extreme temperature indices since 1874 at low-elevation sites in the Southern Alps

We describe the recovery of three daily meteorological records for the southern Alps (Domodossola, Riva del Garda, and Rovereto), all starting in the second half of the nineteenth century. We use these new data, along with additional records, to study regional changes in the mean temperature and extreme indices of heat waves and cold spells frequency and duration over the period 1874–2015. The records are homogenized using subdaily cloud cover observations as a constraint for the statistical model, an approach that has never been applied before in the literature. A case study based on a record of parallel observations between a traditional meteorological window and a modern screen shows that the use of cloud cover can reduce the root-mean-square error of the homogenization by up to 30% in comparison to an unaided statistical correction. We find that mean temperature in the southern Alps has increased by 1.4°C per century over the analyzed period, with larger increases in daily minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures. The number of hot days in summer has more than tripled, and a similar increase is observed in duration of heat waves. Cold days in winter have dropped at a similar rate. These trends are mainly caused by climate change over the last few decades.

Posterior Vertical Bite Reconstructions of Erosively Worn Dentitions and the "Stamp Technique" - A Case Series with a Mean Observation Time of 40 Months

PURPOSE In the present case series, the authors report on seven cases of erosively worn dentitions (98 posterior teeth) which were treated with direct resin composite. MATERIALS AND METHODS In all cases, both arches were restored by using the so-called stamp technique. All patients were treated with standardized materials and protocols. Prior to treatment, a waxup was made on die-cast models to build up the loss of occlusion as well as ensure the optimal future anatomy and function of the eroded teeth to be restored. During treatment, teeth were restored by using templates of silicone (ie, two "stamps," one on the vestibular, one on the oral aspect of each tooth), which were filled with resin composite in order to transfer the planned, future restoration (ie, in the shape of the waxup) from the extra- to the intraoral situation. Baseline examinations were performed in all patients after treatment, and photographs as well as radiographs were taken. To evaluate the outcome, the modified United States Public Health Service criteria (USPHS) were used. RESULTS The patients were re-assessed after a mean observation time of 40 months (40.8 ± 7.2 months). The overall outcome of the restorations was good, and almost exclusively "Alpha" scores were given. Only the marginal integrity and the anatomical form received a "Charlie" score (10.2%) in two cases. CONCLUSION Direct resin composite restorations made with the stamp technique are a valuable treatment option for restoring erosively worn dentitions.