967 resultados para Markov chains


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The desire for more robust supply chains has led to a growth in theoretical and practical interest in the application of both preventive and impact reductive disturbance management principles. This application should ultimately lead to less vulnerable and more competitive supply chains. Based on the extant literature we identify fresh food supply chain's contextual factors (products, processes, supply chain networks and supply chain business environment) and their corresponding characteristics, as well as the main disturbance management principles used. To analyse their influence on the selection and application of disturbance management principles in fresh food supply chains we conducted three case studies. In each case we collected data on the relevant contextual factors, disturbance management principles applied and company background. As an underlying methodology, we first conduct within-case analysis and then expand the analyses to a cross-case context. Based on the findings from these case studies, propositions are built concerning the nature of contextual factors and their characteristics, and their influence on the selection and application of disturbance management principles in fresh food supply chains. Our main findings are related to the identification of contextual characteristics of fresh food supply chains that are either critical vulnerability sources, critical enablers or conditionals and as such require, facilitate or condition selection and application of disturbance management principles.

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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used probabilistic models of sequential data. As with other probabilistic models, they require the specification of local conditional probability distributions, whose assessment can be too difficult and error-prone, especially when data are scarce or costly to acquire. The imprecise HMM (iHMM) generalizes HMMs by allowing the quantification to be done by sets of, instead of single, probability distributions. iHMMs have the ability to suspend judgment when there is not enough statistical evidence, and can serve as a sensitivity analysis tool for standard non-stationary HMMs. In this paper, we consider iHMMs under the strong independence interpretation, for which we develop efficient inference algorithms to address standard HMM usage such as the computation of likelihoods and most probable explanations, as well as performing filtering and predictive inference. Experiments with real data show that iHMMs produce more reliable inferences without compromising the computational efficiency.

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In this paper, a novel and effective lip-based biometric identification approach with the Discrete Hidden Markov Model Kernel (DHMMK) is developed. Lips are described by shape features (both geometrical and sequential) on two different grid layouts: rectangular and polar. These features are then specifically modeled by a DHMMK, and learnt by a support vector machine classifier. Our experiments are carried out in a ten-fold cross validation fashion on three different datasets, GPDS-ULPGC Face Dataset, PIE Face Dataset and RaFD Face Dataset. Results show that our approach has achieved an average classification accuracy of 99.8%, 97.13%, and 98.10%, using only two training images per class, on these three datasets, respectively. Our comparative studies further show that the DHMMK achieved a 53% improvement against the baseline HMM approach. The comparative ROC curves also confirm the efficacy of the proposed lip contour based biometrics learned by DHMMK. We also show that the performance of linear and RBF SVM is comparable under the frame work of DHMMK.

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Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are extensively used to encode sequences of decisions with probabilistic effects. Markov Decision Processes with Imprecise Probabilities (MDPIPs) encode sequences of decisions whose effects are modeled using sets of probability distributions. In this paper we examine the computation of Γ-maximin policies for MDPIPs using multilinear and integer programming. We discuss the application of our algorithms to “factored” models and to a recent proposal, Markov Decision Processes with Set-valued Transitions (MDPSTs), that unifies the fields of probabilistic and “nondeterministic” planning in artificial intelligence research. 

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During the late twentieth century the supply chains for gold were considered by the majority of consumers (when they were considered at all) to be driven by simple commercial imperatives. That notion was shattered during the first decade of the twenty-first century by the appearance of ethical campaigns, led by advocates determined to present major players in the gold industry as morally reprehensible. The ‘No Dirty Gold’ campaign sought to shift the purchasing of gold onto a moral register, in order to challenge the activities of large mining corporations. It was followed by the Fairtrade Foundation’s ‘Fairtrade Gold’ initiative, which had aspirations to support subsistence mining communities at the expense of big business. By directly targeting a luxury material and playing on its inherent social ambiguities, campaigners hoped to thoroughly moralise the purchasing of gold objects. Dr Oakley’s presentation will examine the forces behind this developing social phenomenon, describe the trajectories of a selection of major campaigns, and consider the extent to which these have impacted on public attitudes, gold miners and the actions of consumers, producers and retailers of luxury goods.

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In the hotel industry, undistributed operating expenses represent a significant portion of the operating costs for a hotel. Exactly how most of these expenses arise is not well understood. Using data from more than 40 hotels operated by a major chain, the authors examine the links between the variety of a hotel’s products and customers and its undistributed operating expenses and revenues. Their findings show that undistributed operating expenses are related to the extent of the property’s business and product-services mix. The results suggest that although increasing a property's product-service mix results in higher undistributed operating expenses, the incremental costs are compensated for by higher revenues. However, increasing business mix while increasing undistributed operating expenses does not result in higher revenues.

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The paper addresses the transport activities and associated energy consumption involved in the production and supply of two products: jeans and yoghurt. In the case of jeans, the analysis is from the locations in which cotton is grown, to retail outlets in the UK; in the case of yoghurt, the analysis is from the supply of milk on farms, to retail outlets in France. The results show that the transport stages from the point of jeans manufacture to UK port are responsible for the greatest proportion of transport energy use per kilogram of jeans in the UK supply chain. In the case of the French yoghurt supply chains, the results indicate that each of the three transport stages from farm to third-party distribution centre consume approximately the same proportion of total freight transport energy. The energy used on the transport stage for yoghurt from third-party distribution centre to retail outlet varies depending on the type of retail outlet served. Far greater quantities of energy are used in transporting jeans than yoghurts from farm/field to retail outlet. This is explained by the distances involved in the respective supply chains. Both case studies demonstrate that the energy used by consumers transporting goods to their homes by car can be as great as total freight transport energy used in the supply chain from farm/field to retail outlet (per kilogram of product transported).

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An increasing number of producers, retailers and third-party logistics providers are interested in carrying out energy assessments of their product supply chain. This is due to sensitivity about climate change and carbon emissions, but also to high energy prices. This paper presents an analytical approach developed to measure energy use in logistics activities in product supply chains. The approach (based on the Life Cycle Approach) quantifies energy use in transport and logistics activities at all stages of a product supply chain. The work has demonstrated that such an assessment approach based on the supply chain is useful in comparing the energy use implications of different strategies. This supply chain approach can be used to consider options such as sourcing and distribution centre locations, transport modes, road freight vehicle types and weights, vehicle load factors, empty running, transport distance and the balance between consumer shopping trips and delivery to the home.

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Freight transportation system is critical to economic activity but it carries significant environmental costs, notably GHG emissions and climate change : energy use and corresponding CO2 emissions is increasing faster in freight transport than in other sectors and this increase is primarily the result of increased trade. This paper compares the transport activities, associated energy consumption and CO2 emissions of different supply chains for a range of products in three countries: Belgium, France and United Kingdom. Among the products considered are furniture and ‘fruits & vegetables’. For each of these products, different supply chains, involving more or less transport activity and associated energy consumption are analysed in each country. The comparison highlights some of the main factors that influence GHG emissions for different supply chains and illustrates how they vary according to product and country of final distribution. In more detail, the paper addresses the main differences between the supply chains of these products namely, the origin of their sourcing, the logistical organisation between production and retail and different types of retail outlet. The origin of the sourcing impact is mainly related to distance. The impact of the logistical organisation between raw material and retail on GHG emissions is linked to the mode and vehicle choice and to the load factor. As for retail, the consumer trip emissions, between his home and the retail outlet, are also an important part of the whole supply chain emissions. It is worthwhile to notice that our goal in this project is to consider the whole supply chain, from production to consumption. Therefore a particular focus is put on the mobility behaviours of consumers purchasing the studied products during their shopping and dropping back home activities related to these products. Especially a web based survey has been conducted and the gathered results offer an opportunity for drawing a more detailed picture of the associated CO2 emissions. This paper uses the results of an ongoing research on supply chain energy efficiency, funded by ADEME (the French Energy Agency) through the French program on transport research (PREDIT). This research is based on a comprehensive review of the various approaches to quantifying the environmental impacts of supply chains together with data collection from a range of organisations including manufacturers, retailers and transport companies. We will first present the developed methodologies, then the results corresponding to each studied product will be described. A discussion of the potential application of the research approach to the wider debate about the environmental impact of freight transport and the scope for GHG emissions reduction targets to be achieved will be included.

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Freight transportation system is critical to economic activity but it carries significant environmental costs, notably GHG emissions and climate change : energy use and corresponding CO2 emissions is increasing faster in freight transport than in other sectors and this increase is primarily the result of increased trade. This paper compares the transport activities, associated energy consumption and CO2 emissions of different supply chains for a range of products in three countries: Belgium, France and United Kingdom. Among the products considered are furniture and fruits & vegetables. For each of these products, different supply chains, involving more or less transport activity and associated energy consumption are analysed in each country. The comparison highlights some of the main factors that influence GHG emissions for different supply chains and illustrates how they vary according to product and country of final distribution. In more detail, the paper addresses the main differences between the supply chains of these products namely, the origin of their sourcing, the logistical organisation between production and retail and different types of retail outlet. The origin of the sourcing impact is mainly related to distance. The impact of the logistical organisation between raw material and retail on GHG emissions is linked to the mode and vehicle choice and to the load factor. As for retail, the consumer trip emissions, between his home and the retail outlet, are also an important part of the whole supply chain emissions. It is worthwhile to notice that our goal in this project is to consider the whole supply chain, from production to consumption. Therefore a particular focus is put on the mobility behaviours of consumers purchasing the studied products during their shopping and dropping back home activities related to these products. Especially a web based survey has been conducted and the gathered results offer an opportunity for drawing a more detailed picture of the associated CO2 emissions. This paper uses the results of an ongoing research on supply chain energy efficiency, funded by ADEME (the French Energy Agency) through the French program on transport research (PREDIT). This research is based on a comprehensive review of the various approaches to quantifying the environmental impacts of supply chains together with data collection from a range of organisations including manufacturers, retailers and transport companies. We will first present the developed methodologies, then the results corresponding to each studied product will be described. A discussion of the potential application of the research approach to the wider debate about the environmental impact of freight transport and the scope for GHG emissions reduction targets to be achieved will be included.

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This paper proposes a method for analysing the operational complexity in supply chains by using an entropic measure based on information theory. The proposed approach estimates the operational complexity at each stage of the supply chain and analyses the changes between stages. In this paper a stage is identified by the exchange of data and/or material. Through analysis the method identifies the stages where the operational complexity is both generated and propagated (exported, imported, generated or absorbed). Central to the method is the identification of a reference point within the supply chain. This is where the operational complexity is at a local minimum along the data transfer stages. Such a point can be thought of as a ‘sink’ for turbulence generated in the supply chain. Where it exists, it has the merit of stabilising the supply chain by attenuating uncertainty. However, the location of the reference point is also a matter of choice. If the preferred location is other than the current one, this is a trigger for management action. The analysis can help decide appropriate remedial action. More generally, the approach can assist logistics management by highlighting problem areas. An industrial application is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the method.

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This paper considers the following question—where do computers, laptops and mobile phones come from and who produced them? Specific cases of digital labour are examined—the extraction of minerals in African mines under slave-like conditions; ICT manufacturing and assemblage in China (Foxconn); software engineering in India; call centre service work; software engineering at Google within Silicon Valley; and the digital labour of internet prosumers/users. Empirical data and empirical studies concerning these cases are systematically analysed and theoretically interpreted. The theoretical interpretations are grounded in Marxist political economy. The term ‘global value chain’ is criticised in favour of a complex and multidimensional understanding of Marx’s ‘mode of production’ for the purposes of conceptualizing digital labour. This kind of labour is transnational and involves various modes of production, relations of production and organisational forms (in the context of the productive forces). There is a complex global division of digital labour that connects and articulates various forms of productive forces, exploitation, modes of production, and variations within the dominant capitalist mode of production.