Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns : a smooth transition approach

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM–test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the S&P 500 stock index completes the paper.

Segmenting Australian high school students : two-step cluster analysis preliminary results

A one size fits all approach dominates alcohol programs in school settings (Botvin et al., 2007), which may limit program effectiveness (Snyder et al., 2004). Programs tailored to the meet the needs and wants of adolescent groups may be more effective. Limited attention has been directed towards employing a full segmentation process. Where segmentation has been examined, the focus has remained on socio-demographic characteristics and more recently psychographic variables (Mathijssen et al., 2012). The current study aimed to identify whether the addition of behaviour could be used to identify segments. Variables included attitudes towards binge drinking (α = 0.86), behavioral intentions’ (α = 0.97), perceived behavioral control (PBC), injunctive norms (α = 0.94); descriptive norms (α = 0.87), knowledge and reported behaviour. Data was collected from five schools, n = 625 (32.96% girls). Two-Step cluster analysis produced a sample (n = 625) with a silhouette measure of cohesion and separation of 0.4. The intention measure and whether students reported previously consuming alcohol were the most distinguishing characteristics - predictor importance scores of (1.0). A four segment solution emerged. The first segment (“Male abstainers” – 37.2%) featured the highest knowledge score (M: 5.9) along with the lowest-risk drinking attitudes and intentions to drink excessively. Segment 2 (“At risk drinkers” - 11.2%) were characterised by their high-risk attitudes and high-risk drinking intentions. Injunctive (M: 4.1) and descriptive norms (M: 4.9) may indicate a social environment where drinking is the norm. Segment 3 (”Female abstainers” – 25.9%) represents young girls, who have the lowest-risk attitudes and low intentions to drink excessively. The fourth and final segment (boys = 67.4%) (“Moderate drinkers” – 25.7%) all report previously drinking alcohol yet their attitudes and intentions towards excessive alcohol consumption are lower than other segments. Segmentation focuses on identifying groups of individuals who feature similar characteristics. The current study illustrates the importance of including reported behaviour in addition to psychographic and demographic characteristics to identify unique groups to inform intervention planning and design. Key messages The principle of segmentation has received limited attention in the context of school-based alcohol education programs. This research identified four segments amongst 14-16 year high school students, each of which can be targeted with a unique, tailored program to meet the needs and wants of the target audience.

Game On: Know Alcohol - Co-creating a tailored alcohol social marketing program

Research demonstrates that education programs are more effective when their target audiences and other key stakeholder groups are involved in the design. The majority of programs continue to be researcher and expert driven. This study extends upon previous research by employing a co-creation research design to offer a consumer driven alternative to education program design. Two co-creation groups involving twenty 14-16 year old Year 10 students who had previously participated in the Game On:Know Alcohol (GOKA) program, which aims to moderate alcohol drinking attitudes and behaviour, were conducted. Analysis revealed that a co-created GOKA program will differ substantially from the researcher and expert driven program that is currently being field tested. Students prefer interactive activities and activities that engage and challenge. Co-creation offers the potential to contest researcher and expert views and may offer to assist in the generation of new insights for the development of education programs.

Game On: Know Alcohol - Interim findings from the first nine schools

A six module program designed to 1) show students the effects of alcohol, 2) impart knowledge of standard drinks and 3) provide students with strategies to moderate (or abstain) from alcohol drinking, is currently being tested in a cluster randomised control design in Queensland. This paper presents immediate evaluation results for the program that was designed using the eight National Social Marketing Centre (2009) benchmark criteria. Students have participated in baseline and/or immediate follow up evaluation in six intervention and three control schools to date. Early results suggest that Game On:Know Alcohol increases knowledge relating to alcohol and moderates attitudes towards binge drinking while maintaining behavioural intentions to drink alcohol excessively. Limitations of the current study and opportunities for future research are outlined.

Maintaining or changing a drinking behavior? GOKA's short-term outcomes

During the critical neurobiological and social developmental period of adolescence, binge drinking of alcohol increases the risk of mental health problems, school exclusion, convictions, fatal and non-fatal accidents. The present research utilizes a simple cluster randomized control trial design to evaluate a social marketing program, Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA), employing innovative online edutainment games to target binge drinking. Pre and post data were collected for seven program (942 students, mean age: 14.6 years) and five control schools (578 students, mean age: 14.4 years). Significant improvements in alcohol knowledge and affective attitude toward binge drinking was observed for adolescents who participated in GOKA compared to the control group, with maintenance of desirable subjective norms, instrumental attitudes and intentions. Given considerable external competition from messages promoting the benefits of alcohol use, a one-off program that modifies incorrect knowledge and alters perceptions of binge drinking as a fun, recreational activity represents an important step. This research contributes to current understanding of social marketing’s capacity to change drivers and maintain inhibitors of binge drinking intentions of adolescents and provides an important basis for future research in the domain.

A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

Differential segmentation responses to an alcohol social marketing program

Objective This study seeks establish whether meaningful subgroups exist within a 14-16 year old adolescent population and if these segments respond differently to the Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA) intervention, a school-based alcohol social marketing program. Methodology This study is part of a larger cluster randomized controlled evaluation of the Game On: Know Alcohol (GOKA) program implemented in 14 schools in 2013/2014. TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to segment 2114 high school adolescents (14-16 years old) on the basis of 22 demographic, behavioral and psychographic variables. Program effects on knowledge, attitudes, behavioral intentions, social norms, expectancies and refusal self-efficacy of identified segments was subsequently examined. Results Three segments were identified: (1) Abstainers (2) Bingers (3) Moderate Drinkers. Program effects varied significantly across segments. The strongest positive change effects post participation were observed for the Bingers, while mixed effects were evident for Moderate Drinkers and Abstainers. Conclusions These findings provide preliminary empirical evidence supporting application of social marketing segmentation in alcohol education programs. Development of targeted programs that meet the unique needs of each of the three identified segments is indicated to extend the social marketing footprint in alcohol education.

Adolescent self-reported physical activity and autonomy: A case for constrained and structured environments?

The provision of autonomy supportive environments that promote physical activity engagement have become popular in contemporary youth settings. However, questions remain about whether adolescent perceptions of their autonomy have implications for physical activity. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the association between adolescents’ self-reported physical activity and their perceived autonomy. Participants (n = 384 adolescents) aged between 12 and 15 years were recruited from six secondary schools in metropolitan Brisbane, Australia. Self-reported measures of physical activity and autonomy were obtained. Logistic regression with inverse probability weights were used to examine the association between autonomy and the odds of meeting youth physical activity guidelines. Autonomy (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.49-0.76) and gender (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.46-0.83) were negatively associated with meeting physical activity guidelines. However, the model explained only a small amount of the variation in whether youth in this sample met physical activity guidelines (R2 = 0.023). For every 1 unit decrease in autonomy (on an index from 1 to 5), participants were 1.64 times more likely to meet physical activity guidelines. The findings, which are at odds with several previous studies, suggest that interventions designed to facilitate youth physical activity should limit opportunities for youth to make independent decisions about their engagement. However, the small amount of variation explained by the predictors in the model is a caveat, and should be considered prior to applying such suggestions in practical settings. Future research should continue to examine a larger age range, longitudinal observational or intervention studies to examine assertions of causality, as well as objective measurement of physical activity.

Digital design interventions for creating new presentations of self in public urban places

During everyday urban life, people spend time in public urban places waiting for specific events to occur. During these times, people sometimes tend to engage with their information and communication technology (ICT) devices in a way that shuts off interactions with collocated people. These devices could also be used to better connect with the urban space and collocated people within. This chapter presents and discusses the impact of three design interventions on the urban user experience enabling collocated people to share lightweight, non-privacy-sensitive data in the urban space. We investigate and discuss the impact on the urban experience under the notions of people, place, and technology with an emphasis on how the sharing of non-privacy-sensitive data can positively transform anonymous public urban places in various ways through anonymous digital augmentations.

Design patterns for urban gardening

Urban agriculture is practiced in many forms within urban spaces, ranging from large organised community gardens to individuals with a backyard or balcony. We present the synthesis of findings from three studies exploring different types of urban agriculture: city farms, residential gardeners, and a grassroots group that supports local communities. Where the findings of individual studies are used to justify a design approach, there are often difficulties encountered because of different context of the original study. Through our understanding and synthesis of multiple studies, we propose a set of design patterns. The proposed patterns can be utilised concurrently depending on the scale and context of both the physical garden, and community. The relationships between the patterns and their concurrent use are discussed, and the resulting links provided the foundation for a pattern language. The eight initial patterns provide a foundation on which we would encourage other researchers to contribute, in order to develop a pattern language to holistically consider urban agriculture beyond the scope of our experiences in Brisbane, and to enrich the patterns with a variety of gardening practices.

The role of digital screens in urban life: New opportunities for placemaking

Large digital screens are becoming prevalent across today’s cities dispersing into everyday urban spaces such as public squares and cultural precincts. Examples, such as Federation Square, demonstrate the opportunities for using digital screens to create a sense of place and to add long-term social, cultural and economic value for citizens, who live and work in those precincts. However, the challenge of implementing digital screens in new urban developments is to ensure they respond appropriately to the physical and sociocultural environment in which they are placed. Considering the increasing rate at which digital screens are being embedded into public spaces, it is surprising that the programs running on these screens still seem to be stuck in the cinematic model. The availability of advanced networking and interaction technologies offers opportunities for information access that goes beyond free-to-air television and advertising. This chapter revisits the history and current state of digital screens in urban life and discusses a series of research studies that involve digital screens as interface between citizens and the city. Instead of focusing on technological concerns, the chapter presents a holistic analysis of these studies, with the aim to move towards a more comprehensive understanding of the sociocultural potential of this new media platform, and how the digital content is linked with the spatial quality of the physical space, as well as the place and role of digital screens within the smart city movement.

Co-designing social marketing programs

Most alcohol education programs are designed by experts, with the target audience largely excluded from this process. Theoretically, application of co-creation which comprises co-design and co- production offers an opportunity to better orient programs to meet audience needs and wants and thereby enhance program outcomes. To date, research focus has centred on value co-creation with content co-design receiving limited research attention. The current study seeks to understand how young people would design an intervention and continues by contrasting an audience designed program with the earlier implemented expert designed program.

Toward Figural Fantasy : The Representation of Consciousness in Modern American Fantasy Literature

Tajunnanesitys amerikkalaisessa heterodiegeettisessä fantasiakirjallisuudessa on muuttunut merkittävästi viimeisen kolmen vuosikymmenen aikana: kerrontaa orientoiva ja tarinamaailmaa havainnoiva tajunta on vähin erin vaihtunut kaikkitietävästä kertojasta tarinan sisäiseksi henkilöhahmoksi. Kertoja on samalla vetäytynyt yhä syvemmälle kerronnan kulissien taakse. Tämä tutkielma hahmottaa ja analysoi kyseistä muutosta siirtymänä kertojakeskeisestä kerronnasta kohti henkilökeskeistä kerrontaa. Tutkielmassa tajunnanesityksen teoreettisen kehyksen muodostavat F. K. Stanzelin kertojakeskeisen ja henkilökeskeisen kerrontatilanteen käsitteet. Kerrontatilanteita tarkennetaan fokalisaation, vapaan epäsuoran esityksen, sisäisen monologin ja psykonarraation teorioiden avulla. Tutkielma jakaantuu kahteen osaan. Ensimmäisessä osassa vertaillaan kahta prototyyppistä fantasiaromaania syväluotaavan narratologisen analyysin keinoin. Kertojakeskeistä kerrontaa edustaa Fritz Leiberin "The Swords of Lankhmar" (1968) ja henkilökeskeistä kerrontaa George R. R. Martinin "A Game of Thrones" (1996). Toisessa osassa tarkastellaan pääpiirteittäin kuuttatoista muuta aikaansa edustavaa fantasiaromaania ja hahmotetaan tajunnanesityksen muutoksen kronologista kulkua. Yhdessä osat ilmentävät, kuinka amerikkalainen heterodiegeettinen fantasiakirjallisuus on muuttunut kerrontateknisesti henkilökeskeisemmäksi. Tutkielma on ensimmäinen laatuaan, ja sen on tarkoitus luoda pohjaa uudenlaiselle modernin fantasiakirjallisuuden tutkimukselle ja kirjalliselle arvostukselle.

Järjestö jäänmurtajana : Suomen merimiesunioni työmarkkinaosapuolena ja suomalaisten laivatyöntekijöiden turvallisuuden vankentajana 1944-1980

Like an Icebreaker: The Finnish Seamen s Union as collective bargaining maverick and champion of sailors social safety 1944-1980. The Finnish Seamen's Union (FSU), which was established on a national basis in 1920, was one of the first Finnish trade unions to succeed in collective bargaining. In the early 1930s, the gains made in the late 1920s were lost, due to politically based internal rivalries, the Great Depression, and a disastrous strike. Unexpectedly the FSU survived and went on promoting the well-being of its members even during World War II. After the war the FSU was in an exceptionally favorable position to exploit the introduction of coordinated capitalism, which was based on social partnership between unions, employers and government. Torpedoes, mines and confiscations had caused severe losses to the Finnish merchant marine. Both ship-owners and government alike understood the crucial importance of using the remaining national shipping capacity effectively. The FSU could no longer be crushed, and so, in 1945, the union was allowed to turn all ocean-going Finnish ships into closed shops. The FSU also had another source of power. After the sailors of the Finnish icebreaker fleet also joined its ranks, the FSU could, in effect, block Finnish foreign trade in wintertime. From the late 1940s to the 1960s the union started and won numerous icebreaker strikes. Finnish seamen were thus granted special pension rights, reductions on income taxes and import duties, and other social privileges. The FSU could neither be controlled by union federations nor intimidated by employers or governments. The successful union and its tactically clever chairperson, Niilo Välläri, were continuously but erroneously accused of syndicalism. Välläri did not aim for socialism but wanted the Finnish seamen to get all the social benefits that capitalism could possibly offer. Välläri s policy was successfully followed by the FSU until the late 1980s when Finnish ship-owners were allowed to flag their vessels outside the national registry. Since then the FSU has been on the defensive and has yielded to pay cuts. The FSU members have not lost their social benefits, but they are under constant fear of losing their jobs to cheap foreign labor.