The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications

Regional climate downscaling has arrived at an important juncture. Some in the research community favour continued refinement and evaluation of downscaling techniques within a broader framework of uncertainty characterisation and reduction. Others are calling for smarter use of downscaling tools, accepting that conventional, scenario-led strategies for adaptation planning have limited utility in practice. This paper sets out the rationale and new functionality of the Decision Centric (DC) version of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC). This tool enables synthesis of plausible daily weather series, exotic variables (such as tidal surge), and climate change scenarios guided, not determined, by climate model output. Two worked examples are presented. The first shows how SDSM-DC can be used to reconstruct and in-fill missing records based on calibrated predictor-predictand relationships. Daily temperature and precipitation series from sites in Africa, Asia and North America are deliberately degraded to show that SDSM-DC can reconstitute lost data. The second demonstrates the application of the new scenario generator for stress testing a specific adaptation decision. SDSM-DC is used to generate daily precipitation scenarios to simulate winter flooding in the Boyne catchment, Ireland. This sensitivity analysis reveals the conditions under which existing precautionary allowances for climate change might be insufficient. We conclude by discussing the wider implications of the proposed approach and research opportunities presented by the new tool.

Oblique h.f. radiowave propagation in the main trough region of the ionosphere

The propagation of 7.335 MHz, c.w. signals over a 5212 km sub-auroral, west-east path is studied. Measurements and semi-empirical predictions are made of the amplitude distributions and Doppler shifts of the received signals. The observed amplitude distribution is fitted with one produced by a numerical fading model, yielding the power losses suffered by the signals during propagation via the predominating modes. The signals are found to suffer exceptionally low losses at certain local times under geomagnetically quiet conditions. The mid-latitude trough in the F2 peak ionization density is predicted by a statistical model to be at the latitudes of this path at these times and at low Kp values. A sharp cut-off in low-power losses at a mean Kp of 2.75 strongly implicates the trough in the propagation of these signals. The Doppler shifts observed at these times cannot be explained by a simple ray-tracing model. It is shown however, that a simple extension of this model to allow for the trough can reproduce the form of the observed diurnal variation.

The dynamics of Baroclinic Zonal jets

Multiple alternating zonal jets are a ubiquitous feature of planetary atmospheres and oceans. However, most studies to date have focused on the special case of barotropic jets. Here, the dynamics of freely evolving baroclinic jets are investigated using a two-layer quasigeostrophic annulus model with sloping topography. In a suite of 15 numerical simulations, the baroclinic Rossby radius and baroclinic Rhines scale are sampled by varying the stratification and root-mean-square eddy velocity, respectively. Small-scale eddies in the initial state evolve through geostrophic turbulence and accelerate zonally as they grow in horizontal scale, first isotropically and then anisotropically. This process leads ultimately to the formation of jets, which take about 2500 rotation periods to equilibrate. The kinetic energy spectrum of the equilibrated baroclinic zonal flow steepens from a −3 power law at small scales to a −5 power law near the jet scale. The conditions most favorable for producing multiple alternating baroclinic jets are large baroclinic Rossby radius (i.e., strong stratification) and small baroclinic Rhines scale (i.e., weak root-mean-square eddy velocity). The baroclinic jet width is diagnosed objectively and found to be 2.2–2.8 times larger than the baroclinic Rhines scale, with a best estimate of 2.5 times larger. This finding suggests that Rossby wave motions must be moving at speeds of approximately 6 times the turbulent eddy velocity in order to be capable of arresting the isotropic inverse energy cascade.

Assessing the carcinogenic potential of low-dose exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment: the challenge ahead

Lifestyle factors are responsible for a considerable portion of cancer incidence worldwide, but credible estimates from the World Health Organization and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) suggest that the fraction of cancers attributable to toxic environmental exposures is between 7% and 19%. To explore the hypothesis that low-dose exposures to mixtures of chemicals in the environment may be combining to contribute to environmental carcinogenesis, we reviewed 11 hallmark phenotypes of cancer, multiple priority target sites for disruption in each area and prototypical chemical disruptors for all targets, this included dose-response characterizations, evidence of low-dose effects and cross-hallmark effects for all targets and chemicals. In total, 85 examples of chemicals were reviewed for actions on key pathways/mechanisms related to carcinogenesis. Only 15% (13/85) were found to have evidence of a dose-response threshold, whereas 59% (50/85) exerted low-dose effects. No dose-response information was found for the remaining 26% (22/85). Our analysis suggests that the cumulative effects of individual (non-carcinogenic) chemicals acting on different pathways, and a variety of related systems, organs, tissues and cells could plausibly conspire to produce carcinogenic synergies. Additional basic research on carcinogenesis and research focused on low-dose effects of chemical mixtures needs to be rigorously pursued before the merits of this hypothesis can be further advanced. However, the structure of the World Health Organization International Programme on Chemical Safety 'Mode of Action' framework should be revisited as it has inherent weaknesses that are not fully aligned with our current understanding of cancer biology.

The effects of diesel exhaust pollution on floral volatiles and the consequences for honey bee olfaction

There is growing evidence of a substantial decline in pollinators within Europe and North America, most likely caused by multiple factors such as diseases, poor nutrition, habitat loss, insecticides, and environmental pollution. Diesel exhaust could be a contributing factor to this decline, since we found that diesel exhaust rapidly degrades floral volatiles, which honey bees require for flower recognition. In this study, we exposed eight of the most common floral volatiles to diesel exhaust in order to investigate whether it can affect volatile mediated plant-pollinator interaction. Exposure to diesel exhaust altered the blend of common flower volatiles significantly: myrcene was considerably reduced, β-ocimene became undetectable, and β-caryophyllene was transformed into its cis-isomer isocaryophyllene. Proboscis extension response (PER) assays showed that the alterations of the blend reduced the ability of honey bees to recognize it. The chemically reactive nitrogen oxides fraction of diesel exhaust gas was identified as capable of causing degradation of floral volatiles.

Syncytiotrophoblast extracellular vesicles from pre-eclampsia placentas differentially affect platelet function

Pre-eclampsia (PE) complicates around 3% of all pregnancies and is one of the most common causes of maternal mortality worldwide. The pathophysiology of PE remains unclear however its underlying cause originates from the placenta and manifests as raised blood pressure, proteinuria, vascular or systemic inflammation and hypercoagulation in the mother. Women who develop PE are also at significantly higher risk of subsequently developing cardiovascular (CV) disease. In PE, the failing endoplasmic reticulum, oxidative and inflammatory stressed syncytiotrophoblast layer of the placenta sheds increased numbers of syncytiotrophoblast extracellular vesicles (STBEV) into the maternal circulation. Platelet reactivity, size and concentration are also known to be altered in some women who develop PE, although the underlying reasons for this have not been determined. In this study we show that STBEV from disease free placenta isolated ex vivo by dual placental perfusion associate rapidly with platelets. We provide evidence that STBEV isolated from normal placentas cause platelet activation and that this is increased with STBEV from PE pregnancies. Furthermore, treatment of platelets with aspirin, currently prescribed for women at high risk of PE to reduce platelet aggregation, also inhibits STBEV-induced reversible aggregation of washed platelets. Increased platelet reactivity as a result of exposure to PE placenta derived STBEVs correlates with increased thrombotic risk associated with PE. These observations establish a possible direct link between the clotting disturbances of PE and dysfunction of the placenta, as well as the known increased risk of thromboembolism associated with this condition.

The heterogeneity of wooded-agricultural landscape mosaics influences woodland bird community assemblages

Context Landscape heterogeneity (the composition and configuration of different landcover types) plays a key role in shaping woodland bird assemblages in wooded-agricultural mosaics. Understanding how species respond to landscape factors could contribute to preventing further decline of woodland bird populations. Objective To investigate how woodland birds with different species traits respond to landscape heterogeneity, and to identify whether specific landcover types are important for maintaining diverse populations in wooded-agricultural environments. Methods Birds were sampled from woodlands in 58 2 x 2 km tetrads across southern Britain. Landscape heterogeneity was quantified for each tetrad. Bird assemblage response was determined using redundancy analysis combined with variation partitioning and response trait analyses. Results For woodland bird assemblages, the independent explanatory importance of landscape composition and landscape configuration variables were closely interrelated. When considered simultaneously during variation partitioning, the community response was better represented by compositional variables. Different species responded to different landscape features and this could be explained by traits relating to woodland association, foraging strata and nest location. Ubiquitous, generalist species, many of which were hole-nesters or ground foragers, correlated positively with urban landcover while specialists of broadleaved woodland avoided landscapes containing urban areas. Species typical of coniferous woodland correlated with large conifer plantations. Conclusions At the 2 x 2 km scale, there was evidence that the availability of resources provided by proximate landcover types was highly important for shaping woodland bird assemblages. Further research to disentangle the effects of composition and configuration at different spatial scales is advocated.

Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500

We analyze the risk premia embedded in the S&P 500 spot index and option markets. We use a long time-series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium, the price jump risk premium, the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance jump risk premium. The risk premia are statistically and economically significant and move over time. Investigating the economic drivers of the risk premia, we are able to explain up to 63 % of these variations.

Embryo Mitochondrial DNA Depletion Is Reversed During Early Embryogenesis in Cattle

The extensive replication of mitochondria during oogenesis and the wide variability in mitochondrial DNA ( mtDNA) copy numbers present in fully grown oocytes indicate that mtDNA amount may play an important role during early embryogenesis. Using bovine oocytes derived from follicles of different sizes to study the influence of mtDNA content on development, we showed that oocytes obtained from small follicles, known to be less competent in developing into blastocysts, contain less mtDNA than those originating from larger follicles. However, because of the high variability in copy number, a more accurate approach was examined in which parthenogenetic one-cell embryos were biopsied to measure their mtDNA content and then cultured to assess development capacity. Contrasting with previous findings, mtDNA copy number in biopsies was not different between competent and incompetent embryos, indicating that mtDNA content is not related to early developmental competence. To further examine the importance of mtDNA on development, one-cell embryos were partially depleted of their mtDNA (64% +/- 4.1% less) by centrifugation followed by the removal of the mitochondrial-enriched cytoplasmic fraction. Surprisingly, depleted embryos developed normally into blastocysts, which contained mtDNA copy numbers similar to nonmanipulated controls. Development in depleted embryos was accompanied by an increase in the expression of genes (TFAM and NRF1) controlling mtDNA replication and transcription, indicating an intrinsic ability to restore the content of mtDNA at the blastocyst stage. Therefore, we concluded that competent bovine embryos are able to regulate their mtDNA content at the blastocyst stage regardless of the copy numbers accumulated during oogenesis.

Viable Calves Produced by Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer Using Meiotic-Blocked Oocytes

Somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) has had an enormous impact on our understanding of biology and remains a unique tool for multiplying valuable laboratory and domestic animals. However, the complexity of the procedure and its poor efficiency are factors that limit a wider application of SCNT. In this context, oocyte meiotic arrest is an important option to make SCNT more flexible and increase the number of cloned embryos produced. Herein, we show that the use of butyrolactone I in association with brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) to arrest the meiotic division for 24 h prior to in vitro maturation provides bovine (Bos indicus) oocytes capable of supporting development of blastocysts and full-term cloned calves at least as efficiently as nonarrested oocytes. Furthermore, the procedure resulted in cloned blastocysts with an 1.5- and twofold increase of POU5F1 and IFNT2 expression, respectively, which are well-known markers of embryonic viability. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number was diminished by prematuration in immature oocytes (718,585 +/- 34,775 vs. 595,579 +/- 31,922, respectively, control and treated groups) but was unchanged in mature oocytes (522,179 +/- 45,617 vs. 498,771 +/- 33,231) and blastocysts (816,627 +/- 40,235 vs. 765,332 +/- 51,104). To our knowledge, this is the first report of cloned offspring born to prematured oocytes, indicating that meiotic arrest could have significant implications for laboratories working with SCNT and in vitro embryo production.

Amyloid beta-peptide activates nuclear factor-kappa B through an N-methyl-D-aspartate signaling pathway in cultured cerebellar cells

Amyloid P-peptide (A beta) likely causes functional alterations in neurons well prior to their death. Nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-kappa B), a transcription factor that is known to play important roles in cell survival and apoptosis, has been shown to be modulated by A beta in neurons and glia, but the mechanism is unknown. Because A beta has also been shown to enhance activation of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, we investigated the role of NMDA receptor-mediated intracellular signaling pathways in A beta-induced NF-kappa B activation in primary cultured rat cerebellar cells. Cells were treated with different concentrations of A beta 1-40 (1 or 2 mu M) for different periods (6, 12, or 24 hr). MK-801 (NMDA antagonist), manumycin A and FTase inhibitor 1 (farnesyltransferase inhibitors), PP1 (Src-family tyrosine kinase inhibitor), PD98059 [mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) inhibitor], and LY294002 [phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3-k) inhibitor] were added 20 min before A beta treatment of the cells. A beta induced a time- and concentration-dependent activation of NF-kappa B (1 mu M, 12 hr); both p50/p65 and p50/p50 NF-kappa B dimers were involved. This activation was abolished by MK-801 and attenuated by manumycin A, FTase inhibitor 1, PP1, PD98059, and LY294002. AP at 1 mu M increased the expression of inhibitory protein I kappa B, brain-derived neurotrophic factor, inducible nitric oxide synthase, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and interleukin-1 beta as shown by RTPCR assays. Collectively, these findings suggest that AP activates NF-kappa B by an NMDA-Src-Ras-like protein through MAPK and PI3-k pathways in cultured cerebellar cells. This pathway may mediate an adaptive, neuroprotective response to A beta. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data

The rate of high energy cosmic ray muons as measured underground is shown to be strongly correlated with upper-air temperatures during short-term atmospheric (10-day) events. The effects are seen by correlating data from the MINOS underground detector and temperatures from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts during the winter periods from 2003-2007. This effect provides an independent technique for the measurement of meteorological conditions and presents a unique opportunity to measure both short and long-term changes in this important part of the atmosphere. Citation: Osprey, S., et al. (2009), Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05809, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036359.

The magnetized steel and scintillator calorimeters of the MINOS experiment

The Main Injector Neutrino Oscillation Search (MINOS) experiment uses an accelerator-produced neutrino beam to perform precision measurements of the neutrino oscillation parameters in the ""atmospheric neutrino"" sector associated with muon neutrino disappearance. This long-baseline experiment measures neutrino interactions in Fermilab`s NuMI neutrino beam with a near detector at Fermilab and again 735 km downstream with a far detector in the Soudan Underground Laboratory in northern Minnesota. The two detectors are magnetized steel-scintillator tracking calorimeters. They are designed to be as similar as possible in order to ensure that differences in detector response have minimal impact on the comparisons of event rates, energy spectra and topologies that are essential to MINOS measurements of oscillation parameters. The design, construction, calibration and performance of the far and near detectors are described in this paper. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.