Are you sure? the role of uncertainty in career

Although uncertainty is a fundamental human experience, professionals in the career field have largely overlooked the role that it plays in people's careers. The changed nature of careers has resulted in people experiencing increased uncertainty in their career that is beyond the uncertainty experienced in their job. The author explores the role of uncertainty in people's experience of their careers and examines the implications for career counseling theory and practice. A review of the career theory and career counseling literature indicates that although contemporary approaches have been offered to respond to the changed nature of career, none of the approaches have identified uncertainty as a core part of individuals' experience of their career. The broader literature on uncertainty is then reviewed at the societal, organizational, and individual levels.

The role of uncertainty in the relationship between fairness evaluations and willingness to pay

Participants in contingent valuation studies may be uncertain about a number of aspects of the policy and survey context. The uncertainty management model of fairness judgments states that individuals will evaluate a policy in terms of its fairness when they do not know whether they can trust the relevant managing authority or experience uncertainty due to insufficient knowledge of the general issues surrounding the environmental policy. Similarly, some researchers have suggested that, not knowing how to answer WTP questions, participants convey their general attitudes toward the public good rather than report well-defined economic preferences. These contentions were investigated in a sample of 840 residents in four urban catchments across Australia who were interviewed about their WTP for stormwater pollution abatement. Four sources of uncertainty were measured: amount of prior issue-related thought, trustworthiness of the water authority, insufficient scenario information, and WTP response uncertainty. A logistic regression model was estimated in each subsample to test the main effects of the uncertainty sources on WTP as well as their interaction with fairness and proenvironmental attitudes. Results indicated support for the uncertainty management model in only one of the four samples. Similarly, proenvironmental attitudes interacted rarely with uncertainty to a significant level, and in ways that were more complex than hypothesised. It was concluded that uncertain individuals were generally not more likely than other participants to draw on either fairness evaluations or proenvironmental attitudes when making decisions about paying for stormwater pollution abatement.

Discriminating depth in corrugated stereo surfaces: facilitation by a pedestal is explained by removal of uncertainty

With luminance gratings, psychophysical thresholds for detecting a small increase in the contrast of a weak ‘pedestal’ grating are 2–3 times lower than for detection of a grating when the pedestal is absent. This is the ‘dipper effect’ – a reliable improvement whose interpretation remains controversial. Analogies between luminance and depth (disparity) processing have attracted interest in the existence of a ‘disparity dipper’. Are thresholds for disparity modulation (corrugated surfaces), facilitated by the presence of a weak disparity-modulated pedestal? We used a 14-bit greyscale to render small disparities accurately, and measured 2AFC discrimination thresholds for disparity modulation (0.3 or 0.6 c/deg) of a random texture at various pedestal levels. In the first experiment, a clear dipper was found. Thresholds were about 2× lower with weak pedestals than without. But here the phase of modulation (0 or 180 deg) was varied from trial to trial. In a noisy signal-detection framework, this creates uncertainty that is reduced by the pedestal, which thus improves performance. When the uncertainty was eliminated by keeping phase constant within sessions, the dipper effect was weak or absent. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the influence of uncertainty could account well for the results of both experiments. A corollary is that the visual depth response to small disparities is probably linear, with no threshold-like nonlinearity.

When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

Run-time resolution of uncertainty

Requirements awareness should help optimize requirements satisfaction when factors that were uncertain at design time are resolved at runtime. We use the notion of claims to model assumptions that cannot be verified with confidence at design time. By monitoring claims at runtime, their veracity can be tested. If falsified, the effect of claim negation can be propagated to the system's goal model and an alternative means of goal realization selected automatically, allowing the dynamic adaptation of the system to the prevailing environmental context. © 2011 IEEE.

Introduction to the Law of Trusts by Simon Gardner

Book review of Prof Gardiner's work on Trusts, thrid edition.

CASENOTES - Fitzkriston LLP v Panayi - Best Rents, Parol leases and Law of Property Act 1925 Section 54(2)

Casenote considers nature of ruling in Fitzkriston v Panayi and its implications for the interpretation of S.54(2) Law of Property Act 1925