Likelihood‐free inference for transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Case study: Estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens Models and methods Data analysis and results Discussion References

Free-surface flow past arbitrary topography and an inverse approach for wave-free solutions

An efficient numerical method to compute nonlinear solutions for two-dimensional steady free-surface flow over an arbitrary channel bottom topography is presented. The approach is based on a boundary integral equation technique which is similar to that of Vanden-Broeck's (1996, J. Fluid Mech., 330, 339-347). The typical approach for this problem is to prescribe the shape of the channel bottom topography, with the free-surface being provided as part of the solution. Here we take an inverse approach and prescribe the shape of the free-surface a priori while solving for the corresponding bottom topography. We show how this inverse approach is particularly useful when studying topographies that give rise to wave-free solutions, allowing us to easily classify eleven basic flow types. Finally, the inverse approach is also adapted to calculate a distribution of pressure on the free-surface, given the free-surface shape itself.

Nanoporous Graphitic-C3N4@Carbon Metal-Free Electrocatalysts for Highly Efficient Oxygen Reduction

Based on theoretical prediction, a g-C3N4@carbon metal-free oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalyst was designed and synthesized by uniform incorporation of g-C3N4 into a mesoporous carbon to enhance the electron transfer efficiency of g-C3N4. The resulting g-C3N4@carbon composite exhibited competitive catalytic activity (11.3 mA cm–2 kinetic-limiting current density at −0.6 V) and superior methanol tolerance compared to a commercial Pt/C catalyst. Furthermore, it demonstrated significantly higher catalytic efficiency (nearly 100% of four-electron ORR process selectivity) than a Pt/C catalyst. The proposed synthesis route is facile and low-cost, providing a feasible method for the development of highly efficient electrocatalysts.

ActiGraph GT3X determined variations in “free-living” standing, lying, and sitting duration among sedentary adults

Background Overweight and obesity has become a serious public health problem in many parts of the world. Studies suggest that making small changes in daily activity levels such as “breaking-up” sedentary time (i.e., standing) may help mitigate the health risks of sedentary behavior. The aim of the present study was to examine time spent in standing (determined by count threshold), lying, and sitting postures (determined by inclinometer function) via the ActiGraph GT3X among sedentary adults with differing weight status based on body mass index (BMI) categories. Methods Participants included 22 sedentary adults (14 men, 8 women; mean age 26.5 ± 4.1 years). All subjects completed the self-report International Physical Activity Questionnaire to determine time spent sitting over the previous 7 days. Participants were included if they spent seven or more hours sitting per day. Postures were determined with the ActiGraph GT3X inclinometer function. Participants were instructed to wear the accelerometer for 7 consecutive days (24 h a day). BMI was categorized as: 18.5 to <25 kg/m2 as normal, 25 to <30 kg/m2 as overweight, and ≥30 kg/m2 as obese. Results Participants in the normal weight (n = 10) and overweight (n = 6) groups spent significantly more time standing (after adjustment for moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity and wear-time) (6.7 h and 7.3 h respectively) and less time sitting (7.1 h and 6.9 h respectively) than those in obese (n = 6) categories (5.5 h and 8.0 h respectively) after adjustment for wear-time (p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in standing and sitting time between normal weight and overweight groups (p = 0.051 and p = 0.670 respectively). Differences were not significant among groups for lying time (p = 0.55). Conclusion This study described postural allocations standing, lying, and sitting among normal weight, overweight, and obese sedentary adults. The results provide additional evidence for the use of increasing standing time in obesity prevention strategies.

Tipping the balance : sclerotinia sclerotiorum secreted oxalic acid suppresses host defenses by manipulating the host redox environment

Sclerotinia sclerotiorum is a necrotrophic ascomycete fungus with an extremely broad host range. This pathogen produces the non-specific phytotoxin and key pathogenicity factor, oxalic acid (OA). Our recent work indicated that this fungus and more specifically OA, can induce apoptotic-like programmed cell death (PCD) in plant hosts, this induction of PCD and disease requires generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in the host, a process triggered by fungal secreted OA. Conversely, during the initial stages of infection, OA also dampens the plant oxidative burst, an early host response generally associated with plant defense. This scenario presents a challenge regarding the mechanistic details of OA function; as OA both suppresses and induces host ROS during the compatible interaction. In the present study we generated transgenic plants expressing a redox-regulated GFP reporter. Results show that initially, Sclerotinia (via OA) generates a reducing environment in host cells that suppress host defense responses including the oxidative burst and callose deposition, akin to compatible biotrophic pathogens. Once infection is established however, this necrotroph induces the generation of plant ROS leading to PCD of host tissue, the result of which is of direct benefit to the pathogen. In contrast, a non-pathogenic OA-deficient mutant failed to alter host redox status. The mutant produced hypersensitive response-like features following host inoculation, including ROS induction, callose formation, restricted growth and cell death. These results indicate active recognition of the mutant and further point to suppression of defenses by the wild type necrotrophic fungus. Chemical reduction of host cells with dithiothreitol (DTT) or potassium oxalate (KOA) restored the ability of this mutant to cause disease. Thus, Sclerotinia uses a novel strategy involving regulation of host redox status to establish infection. These results address a long-standing issue involving the ability of OA to both inhibit and promote ROS to achieve pathogenic success.

Effects of free flow state highway traffic parameters on the performance of amplify and forward cooperative multi-hop vehicular networks

In this paper we analyse the effects of highway traffic flow parameters like vehicle arrival rate and density on the performance of Amplify and Forward (AF) cooperative vehicular networks along a multi-lane highway under free flow state. We derive analytical expressions for connectivity performance and verify them with Monte-Carlo simulations. When AF cooperative relaying is employed together with Maximum Ratio Combining (MRC) at the receivers the average route error rate shows 10-20 fold improvement compared to direct communication. A 4-8 fold increase in maximum number of traversable hops can also be observed at different vehicle densities when AF cooperative communication is used to strengthen communication routes. However the theorical upper bound of maximum number of hops promises higher performance gains.

Lattice-free models of cell invasion : discrete simulations and travelling waves

Invasion waves of cells play an important role in development, disease and repair. Standard discrete models of such processes typically involve simulating cell motility, cell proliferation and cell-to-cell crowding effects in a lattice-based framework. The continuum-limit description is often given by a reaction–diffusion equation that is related to the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. One of the limitations of a standard lattice-based approach is that real cells move and proliferate in continuous space and are not restricted to a predefined lattice structure. We present a lattice-free model of cell motility and proliferation, with cell-to-cell crowding effects, and we use the model to replicate invasion wave-type behaviour. The continuum-limit description of the discrete model is a reaction–diffusion equation with a proliferation term that is different from lattice-based models. Comparing lattice based and lattice-free simulations indicates that both models lead to invasion fronts that are similar at the leading edge, where the cell density is low. Conversely, the two models make different predictions in the high density region of the domain, well behind the leading edge. We analyse the continuum-limit description of the lattice based and lattice-free models to show that both give rise to invasion wave type solutions that move with the same speed but have very different shapes. We explore the significance of these differences by calibrating the parameters in the standard Fisher–Kolmogorov equation using data from the lattice-free model. We conclude that estimating parameters using this kind of standard procedure can produce misleading results.

Encapsulation of transition metal species into zeolites and molecular sieves as redox catalysts: Part I-preparation and characterisation of nanosized TiO2, CdO and ZnO semiconductor particles anchored in NaY zeolite

In this paper, we report the preparation and characterisation of nanometer-sized TiO2, CdO, and ZnO semiconductor particles trapped in zeolite NaY. Preparation of these particles was carried out via the traditional ion exchange method and subsequent calcination procedure. It was found that the smaller cations, i.e., Cd2+ and Zn2+ could be readily introduced into the SI′ and SII′ sites located in the sodalite cages, through ion exchange; while this is not the case for the larger Ti species, i.e., Ti monomer [TiO]2+ or dimer [Ti2O3]2+ which were predominantly dispersed on the external surface of zeolite NaY. The subsequent calcination procedure promoted these Ti species to migrate into the internal surface of the supercages. These semiconductor particles confined in NaY zeolite host exhibited a significant blue shift in the UV-VIS absorption spectra, in contrast to the respective bulk semiconductor materials, due to the quantum size effect (QSE). The particle sizes calculated from the UV-VIS optical absorption spectra using the effective mass approximation model are in good agreement with the atomic absorption data.

Iron nodules in ferric soils of the Fraser Coast, Australia : relicts of laterisation or features of contemporary weathering and pedogenesis?

The genesis of ferruginous nodules and pisoliths in soils and weathering profiles of coastal southern and eastern Australia has long been debated. It is not clear whether iron (Fe) nodules are redox accumulations, residues of Miocene laterite duricrust, or the products of contemporary weathering of Fe-rich sedimentary rocks. This study combines a catchment-wide survey of Fe nodule distribution in Poona Creek catchment (Fraser Coast, Queensland) with detailed investigations of a representative ferric soil profile to show that Fe nodules are derived from Fe-rich sandstones. Where these crop out, they are broken down, transported downslope by colluvial processes, and redeposited. Chemical and physical weathering transforms these eroded rock fragments into non-magnetic Fe nodules. Major features of this transformation include lower hematite/goethite and kaolinite/gibbsite ratios, increased porosity, etching of quartz grains, and development of rounded morphology and a smooth outer cortex. Iron nodules are commonly concentrated in ferric horizons. We show that these horizons form as the result of differential biological mixing of the soil. Bioturbation gradually buries nodules and rock fragments deposited at the surface of the soil, resulting in a largely nodule-free 'biomantle' over a ferric 'stone line'. Maghemite-rich magnetic nodules are a prominent feature of the upper half of the profile. These are most likely formed by the thermal alteration of non-magnetic nodules located at the top of the profile during severe bushfires. They are subsequently redistributed through the soil profile by bioturbation. Iron nodules occurring in the study area are products of contemporary weathering of Fe-rich rock units. They are not laterite duricrust residues nor are they redox accumulations, although redox-controlled dissolution/re-precipitation is an important component of post-depositional modification of these Fe nodules.

Interferon-free therapy for hepatitis C, how prepared is Australia for biosimilars?

The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) affects some 150 million people worldwide. However, unlike hepatitis A and B there is no vaccination for HCV and approximately 75% of people exposed to HCV develop chronic hepatitis. In Australia, around 226,700 people live with chronic HCV infection costing the government approximately $252 million per year. Historically, the standard approved/licenced treatment for HCV is pegylated interferon with ribavirin. There are major drawbacks with interferon-based therapy including side effects, long duration of therapy, limited access and affordability. Our previous survey of an at-risk population reported HCV treatment coverage of only 5%. Since April 2013, a new class of interferon-free treatments for chronic HCV is subsidised under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme: boceprevir and telaprevir - estimated to cost the Australian Government in excess of $220 million over five years. Other biologic interferon-free therapeutic agents are scheduled to enter the Australian market. Use of small molecule generic pharmaceuticals has been advocated as a means of public cost savings. However, with the new biologic agents, generics (biosimilars) may not be feasible or straightforward, due to long patent life; marketing exclusivity; and regulatory complexity for these newer products.

Precedent-free fault isolation in a diesel engine EGR valve system

In this paper, a framework for isolating unprecedented faults for an EGR valve system is presented. Using normal behavior data generated by a high fidelity engine simulation, the recently introduced Growing Structure Multiple Model System (GSMMS) is used to construct models of normal behavior for an EGR valve system and its various subsystems. Using the GSMMS models as a foundation, anomalous behavior of the entire system is then detected as statistically significant departures of the most recent modeling residuals from the modeling residuals during normal behavior. By reconnecting anomaly detectors to the constituent subsystems, the anomaly can be isolated without the need for prior training using faulty data. Furthermore, faults that were previously encountered (and modeled) are recognized using the same approach as the anomaly detectors.

Precedent-free fault isolation in a diesel engine exhaust gas recirculation system

In this paper, a recently introduced model-based method for precedent-free fault detection and isolation (FDI) is modified to deal with multiple input, multiple output (MIMO) systems and is applied to an automotive engine with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) system. Using normal behavior data generated by a high fidelity engine simulation, the growing structure multiple model system (GSMMS) approach is used to construct dynamic models of normal behavior for the EGR system and its constituent subsystems. Using the GSMMS models as a foundation, anomalous behavior is detected whenever statistically significant departures of the most recent modeling residuals away from the modeling residuals displayed during normal behavior are observed. By reconnecting the anomaly detectors (ADs) to the constituent subsystems, EGR valve, cooler, and valve controller faults are isolated without the need for prior training using data corresponding to particular faulty system behaviors.

Large amplitude Fourier transformed AC voltammetric investigation of the active state electrochemistry of a copper/aqueous base interface and implications for electrocatalysis

The higher harmonic components available from large-amplitude Fourier-transformed alternating current (FT-ac) voltammetry enable the surface active state of a copper electrode in basic media to be probed in much more detail than possible with previously used dc methods. In particular, the absence of capacitance background current allows low-level Faradaic current contributions of fast electron-transfer processes to be detected; these are usually completely undetectable under conditions of dc cyclic voltammetry. Under high harmonic FT-ac voltammetric conditions, copper electrodes exhibit well-defined and reversible premonolayer oxidation responses at potentials within the double layer region in basic 1.0 M NaOH media. This process is attributed to oxidation of copper adatoms (Cu*) of low bulk metal lattice coordination numbers to surface-bonded, reactive hydrated oxide species. Of further interest is the observation that cathodic polarization in 1.0 M NaOH significantly enhances the current detected in each of the fundamental to sixth FT-ac harmonic components in the Cu*/Cu hydrous oxide electron-transfer process which enables the underlying electron transfer processes in the higher harmonics to be studied under conditions where the dc capacitance response is suppressed; the results support the incipient hydrous oxide adatom mediator (IHOAM) model of electrocatalysis. The underlying quasi-reversible interfacial Cu*/Cu hydrous oxide process present under these conditions is shown to mediate the reduction of nitrate at a copper electrode, while the mediator for the hydrazine oxidation reaction appears to involve a different mediator or active state redox couple. Use of FT-ac voltammetry offers prospects for new insights into the nature of active sites and electrocatalysis at the electrode/solution interface of Group 11 metals in aqueous media.

Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

Cetuximab plus chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (FLEX) : an open-label randomised phase III trial

Background: Use of cetuximab, a monoclonal antibody targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), has the potential to increase survival in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. We therefore compared chemotherapy plus cetuximab with chemotherapy alone in patients with advanced EGFR-positive non-small-cell lung cancer. Methods: In a multinational, multicentre, open-label, phase III trial, chemotherapy-naive patients (≥18 years) with advanced EGFR-expressing histologically or cytologically proven stage wet IIIB or stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to chemotherapy plus cetuximab or just chemotherapy. Chemotherapy was cisplatin 80 mg/m 2 intravenous infusion on day 1, and vinorelbine 25 mg/m 2 intravenous infusion on days 1 and 8 of every 3-week cycle) for up to six cycles. Cetuximab-at a starting dose of 400 mg/m 2 intravenous infusion over 2 h on day 1, and from day 8 onwards at 250 mg/m 2 over 1 h per week-was continued after the end of chemotherapy until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity had occurred. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00148798. Findings: Between October, 2004, and January, 2006, 1125 patients were randomly assigned to chemotherapy plus cetuximab (n=557) or chemotherapy alone (n=568). Patients given chemotherapy plus cetuximab survived longer than those in the chemotherapy-alone group (median 11·3 months vs 10·1 months; hazard ratio for death 0·871 [95% CI 0·762-0·996]; p=0·044). The main cetuximab-related adverse event was acne-like rash (57 [10%] of 548, grade 3). Interpretation: Addition of cetuximab to platinum-based chemotherapy represents a new treatment option for patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. Funding: Merck KGaA. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.